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Hamas/Israel conflict: news and discussion

Make of this what you will:


heres the source of that
should translate when you click on it
 
Why? Because you feel this could not be the case?
I agree with ska that it doesn't matter much in many respects. If they didn't do this, that doesn't actually make them any better.

Either they're murdering bastards who have killed 15,000 plus people in cold blood and destroyed the lives of millions to further their political aims, or they're murdering bastards who have killed 15,000 plus people in cold blood and destroyed the lives of millions and allowed 1,200 other people to die to further their political aims.
 
because conspiracies on that level are incredibly rare and hard to keep covered up and because the Israeli state had simply no need to create an excuse for anything.

It doesnt have to have been a huge conspiracy, a couple of meetings at a high level between Shin Bet and the government would have sufficed. We do know that Egyptian intelligence warned Israel something big was imminent.

I said it weeks ago, and I still think Israel probably allowed (what they expected to be) a raid on an army base. What they didn't expect was a massacre at a trance party.

But I also agree it doesn't much matter by now.
 
the map
no "humanitarian zones" or safe routes on the map
This image now online, no reason to doubt it
GARG35uWAAAjryK.jpeg
Push people across the Egyptian border and into the sea.. that's what the article above about Thinning To A Minimum posits

"Although the crossings to Israel will remain sealed, there are other options. Rafah is one of them, despite Egypt's strong opposition. This passage, at certain times, was breached and completely open. Even today, there is an underground passage between Rafah in Gaza and the Egyptian one in the dimensions of a freeway. The sea is also open to the Gazans. "
 
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Looking at my crystal ball, I can't judge the political/diplomatic/military pressures Israel is under. I really have no idea whether they will go for a new and permanent cease fire or full on genocide or something in between.

One thing I can't see happening is Israel supplying Gaza again. I think that would be politically impossible. So strategically they're going to try and hand the population to Egypt to look after even if it doesn't mean ethnically cleansing them to the Sinai. I also think that when the bombing stops the humanitarian crisis will still be unstoppable so I think diplomatically that's the solution - "not our problem, it's Egypt's problem".
 
because conspiracies on that level are incredibly rare and hard to keep covered up and because the Israeli state had simply no need to create an excuse for anything.

Ignoring emails, accidentally on purpose, is hardly a convoluted conspiracy.
 
It doesnt have to have been a huge conspiracy, a couple of meetings at a high level between Shin Bet and the government would have sufficed. We do know that Egyptian intelligence warned Israel something big was imminent.

I said it weeks ago, and I still think Isprobably allowed (what they expected to be) a raid on an army base. What they didn't expect was a massacre at a trance party.

But I also agree it doesn't much matter by now.
i thought it highly unlikely, with one of the main reasons for the state of israels very existance being to provide a safe haven for jews.
i thought the national trauma from the yom kippur war would make it impossible for any israeli government, no matter how corrupt and/or fascist to even fantasise bout such a play. i mean golda meir won & still had to resign & had her legacy destroyed over that disaster.

i thought a new yom kippur/ pig bay style miscalculation was a much more likely explanation.

but i'm an outsider. you've lived there for years & i generally find your posts insightful. i might have to think again.
has anyone read any israeli speculation bout deliberate neglect instead of arrogance/wishful thinking/incompetence?




& a long, but imo good one bout the 6day war

1967 war: Six days that changed the Middle East
 
i thought a new yom kippur/ pig bay style miscalculation was a much more likely explanation.
Yes, could also be that. That'll be the Israeli line, certainly.
but i'm an outsider. you've lived there for years
I lived there for years, years ago. I left a generation ago and just haven't been back, I'm no insider that's for sure, and the last 20 or so years have arguably been the worst of Israel's existence. Benjamin Netanyahu personally has been driving it, he's carefully recruited all the worst people Israel has to offer, and at this time I have no doubt he personally is revelling in this atrocity he's directing.

Not that he's alone, but his personal importance and investment in what's taking place now can't be overstated.
 
Apologies if posted in the wrong thread.

Look at the language here.


In a statement, the consul general of Israel to the southeast US, Anata Sultan-Dadon, said that the diplomatic mission is "saddened to learn of the self-immolation at the entrance to the office building".

"It is tragic to see the hate and incitement toward Israel expressed in such a horrific way," she added.

"The sanctity of life is our highest value. Our prayers are with the security officer who was injured while trying to prevent this tragic act".
 
They are saying 'it has to be done' effectively, when reasonable actions in response to intelligence/military reports and competence could have seen the Hamas rampage coming.

It's easier to imagine the end of the world than imagine not sucking the dick of every privileged hard right yahoo in case they might not like criticism.
 
the FT reporting that Israel plans for ‘long war’ (we already knew that, Netanyahu said that early on) and that "intensive ground offensive in Gaza will continue into early 2024"...and beyond

"The multi-phase strategy envisages Israeli forces, who are garrisoned inside north Gaza, making an imminent push deep into the south of the besieged Palestinian enclave."

“This will be a very long war . . . We’re currently not near halfway to achieving our objectives,” said one person familiar with the Israeli war plans.

...

The renewed high-intensity ground operation will probably require a few more months, taking it into the new year, the people familiar with the preparations estimated. “This isn’t going to be weeks,” said one person familiar with US-Israel discussions over the war.

After that, there will be a “transition and stabilisation” phase of lower military intensity that could continue into late 2024, with the location of Israeli ground forces during this phase still unclear.

Unlike previous Israeli military operations and wars, one Israeli official suggested there would not be a firm end point. “The referee won’t blow the whistle and it’s over,” they said.

---
so destruction then total occupation.


Also

Another person familiar with Israel’s war plans said the military still considers operations in northern Gaza to be incomplete. “Gaza City isn’t finished yet, nor fully conquered. It’s probably 40 per cent done,” the person said. “For the north as a whole, it will probably require another two weeks to a month.”
 
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The renewed high-intensity ground operation will probably require a few more months, taking it into the new year, the people familiar with the preparations estimated. “This isn’t going to be weeks,” said one person familiar with US-Israel discussions over the war.
important that bit, the netanyahu-whisperer narrative of the US holding Israel back is pure theatre and weapon grade bullshit. US weapons, US money, US approved <and therefore UK approved. UK military also involved it sounds like, at the fringes
 
+972 investigation into Israel's targeting in Gaza


Interesting article.

The Dahiyah Doctrine was first used on Lebanon.

Eisenkot presented his "Dahiyah Doctrine," under which the IDF would expand its destructive power beyond what it demonstrated two years ago against the Beirut suburb of Dahiyah, considered a Hezbollah stronghold.
"We will wield disproportionate power against every village from which shots are fired on Israel, and cause immense damage and destruction. From our perspective, these are military bases," he said. "This isn't a suggestion. This is a plan that has already been authorized."

The idea being to get the Lebanon state or the local population to withdraw support from militants.

Using military force against the militants was not that effective as they were embedded in highly populated urban areas.

Fighting a guerrilla army who use tunnels in a defensive war in urban area is not easy.

So attacking what IDF term high power targets is aimed to reduce civilian support or toleration of armed militants in their midst.

Seems to me reading the article their is / was a tension in IDF between targeting buildings to assassinate leading members of armed groups and targeting infrastructure to reduce civilian moral/ support.

With the inevitable collateral damage being an issue.

Looks to me that over years the Israeli public/ international community and IDF have got more inured to higher and higher level of civilian collateral damage.

One of the things about this kind of warfare- using AI / bombing from air is that it distances the military personal from the actual killing. Makes it psychologically easier to kill.

The IDF going on about using AI makes it sound scientific surgical killing.

Another reason given for use of overwhelming force is to reduce a long war against a dug in guerilla army.

Whether this is working that well in Gaza is not clear as IDF seem to be saying they have more work to do in the north.


From Wiki quote of Israeli military analyst about Lebanon where it was first used

With an outbreak of hostilities [with Hezbollah], the IDF will need to act immediately, decisively, and with force that is disproportionate to the enemy's actions and the threat it poses. Such a response aims at inflicting damage and meting out punishment to an extent that will demand long and expensive reconstruction processes. Israel's test will be the intensity and quality of its response to incidents on the Lebanese border or terrorist attacks involving Hezbollah in the north or Hamas in the south. In such cases, Israel again will not be able to limit its response to actions whose severity is seemingly proportionate to an isolated incident. Rather, it will have to respond disproportionately in order to make it abundantly clear that the State of Israel will accept no attempt to disrupt the calm currently prevailing along its borders.
 
Some context that points away the common assumptions that Hamas are mad/ just like ISIS and wanted to be an existential threat to Israel


Says Hamas were willing to have new election/ join PLO and accept a two state solution.

In essence, the message of the Hamas leadership was clear: “If you in Fatah are convinced that you can get a state from Israel along the 1967 lines through negotiations, go for it. We will not interfere.”

In February and March 2021, Fatah and Hamas, the two rival Palestinian political parties, reached an agreement to hold elections for the presidency of the Palestinian Authority, its Legislative Council, and Hamas’ entry into the Palestine Liberation Organization (PLO). The elections were planned to take place in accordance with the Oslo Accords, after which negotiations would continue with Israel toward the establishment of a Palestinian state.

Israel thought it could continue as before and opposed new elections.

That is managing the conflict/ keeping Hamas and Fatah at loggerheads and a "normalisation" process with Arab states.

This normalisation process would have meant Palestinians were at mercy of Israeli state. Effectively abandoned by Arab states and international community.

This is the context for the Hamas attack on Isreal.

Its compared in article to the 73 attack on Israel. For reasons Ive already mentioned.
 
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