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Israel and hezbollah after the exploding pagers

what do we think Israel’s response will be? What will they target?

Depends - imv - entirely on what the Iranians have hit.

Fortunately there hasn't been significant loss of life. If an Iranian warhead had piled into an orphanage in Haifa and killed 100 kids, we'd be having a different conversation.

It's pretty solid that the Iranians have scored hits on the Israeli air base that houses their F-35's, and the Israeli air dropped nuclear arsenal. What we don't know is what damage has been done, if any.

They might go for Iranian nuclear facilities, they might go for the Revolutionary Guard, or they might go for the oil and gas industry. Probably all three, but what mix, and to what extent, is tea leaves stuff.

My assumption is that they'll go heavily on the RG, the missile production lines, and the nuclear stuff. Wouldn't be surprised if a they go for a refinery somewhere near Tehran so everyone can see that they've had a pop,rather than it all being in the middle of nowhere where noone lives.
 
Possibly. I know they have done so before. But I would’ve thought most of the infrastructure is very hard to get at,, deep underground. Perhaps a few IRG bases.
Though, there seemed to be something quite performative about the heavily publicised use of "bunker buster" munitions to take out Nasrallah.
 
What annoys me is that thousands of civilians have died in Gaza and Israel is ploughing ahead with yet more settlement building in West Bank but it's considered reasonable and sensible to aid Israel when Iran fires missiles at it

Starmer has got on his high horse about it. But on the ICJ ruling on the occupation and the vote on it in UN this government of UK abstained.

Palestinian lives and justice for Palestinians takes back seat when it comes down to it

I watched Netanyahu speech to UN yesterday. Thought it was a bit far fetched. But TBF it's not that out of line with foreign policy of countries like mine in practice.

It comes across now as a clever stroke of Netanyahu government to attack Lebanon. Now all "right thinking" people are lining up to support Israel.

Sure Israel has a right to defend itself. It can do it imo without any support from this country.
 
Possibly. I know they have done so before. But I would’ve thought most of the infrastructure is very hard to get at ...

I'm no expert but I'd have thought that if Israel seriously decided to fuck up Iran's nuclear facilities, they'd be perfectly capable of doing so, particularly with US assistance.
 

Does anyone know about rockets and stuff. If each Israeli defence missile is so expensive, what's to stop Iran launching hundreds of cheap dummy rockets - thereby depleting Israeli stock and costing them a fortune?

What's the flaw in my question? Is it that it wouldn't actually be cheap, or that it isn't feasible technically, or it's tactically pointless?
Unless you are putting nukes on the end of the missiles a decoy is just as expensive as an explosive one
 
I'm no expert but I'd have thought that if Israel seriously decided to fuck up Iran's nuclear facilities, they'd be perfectly capable of doing so, particularly with US assistance.

TBF I think the point where that was possible is long past. Iran isn't an isolated nation having to struggle to develop nuclear weapons on its own; if they were sufficiently inclined to do so I am sure one could be set off as a test within a few months. It might even be the case that friendly nations lend them one in order to test it.
 
Hezbollah kills at least eight Israeli soldiers after south Lebanon infiltration attempt
middleeasteye. 2 October 2024
Eight Israeli soldiers have been killed in combat with Hezbollah in south Lebanon, the Israeli military said in a statement on Wednesday. Three of those killed are commanders, and seven other soldiers are critically wounded.
Hezbollah clashed with Israeli troops infiltrating the southern Lebanese border town of Maroun al-Ras, after earlier pushing back an attempted infiltration elsewhere.

The group destroyed three Israeli Merkava tanks with guided missiles as they approached near the town, it said in a statement.
In a separate statement it said that several Israeli troops were killed and wounded in combat in both Maroun al-Ras and Odaissah, where its fighters fought off an incursion by Israeli infantry soldiers in the morning, forcing them to retreat.

Sky News Arabia quoted an Israeli source as saying that 14 Israeli soldiers were killed in battle on Wednesday.
 
AL Jazeera reporting that:

It looks like another incident, another severe incident for the Israelis on the border. Hezbollah said it detonated explosives on the Golani Brigade, one of Israel’s elite brigades fighting on the ground there.

Israeli Telegram channels are reporting the same thing, saying that helicopters are evacuating many wounded, potentially dead, to hospitals close to Haifa in the north of Israel.

Developing story so I just got that from their live updates page at this time (this link should automatically scroll down to the update in question) Iran tells US not seeking regional war but ‘unilateral self-restraint’ over
 
Depends - imv - entirely on what the Iranians have hit.

Fortunately there hasn't been significant loss of life. If an Iranian warhead had piled into an orphanage in Haifa and killed 100 kids, we'd be having a different conversation.

It's pretty solid that the Iranians have scored hits on the Israeli air base that houses their F-35's, and the Israeli air dropped nuclear arsenal. What we don't know is what damage has been done, if any.

They might go for Iranian nuclear facilities, they might go for the Revolutionary Guard, or they might go for the oil and gas industry. Probably all three, but what mix, and to what extent, is tea leaves stuff.

My assumption is that they'll go heavily on the RG, the missile production lines, and the nuclear stuff. Wouldn't be surprised if a they go for a refinery somewhere near Tehran so everyone can see that they've had a pop,rather than it all being in the middle of nowhere where noone lives.
At least someone has managed to bomb an orphanage

 
At least someone has managed to bomb an orphanage


Not just the Al-Amal orphanage but also the Nuseirat Girl's school and a building housing sleeping emergency workers. 65 dead, many more injured.

Good job Israel did this or we'd be having a different conversation.
 
Compare this to some posters views on here now



The man at end of the clip made a good point.

The line developed that Israel is defending itself is really that Israel wants the right to repress Palestinians.

As he says you cannot occupy a peoples land and cry foul when they oppose this.

The news footage from 1982 was jaw dropping. That would count here on these threads as example of "extreme left" talking.

The Hasbara/ propaganda the clip said was developed after the disastrous PR Israel got when it attacked Lebanon.

So that is where Israel has a right to defend itself started on advice of leading advertising agencies brought in the clean up Israel image.
 
it sort of looks like how a WP shell-burst appears, except vertical and much higher up in the air - this is how that looks:


Yea I guess it does, just seemed odd that the trails all looked paralell, I suppose if it exploded high enough it would appear as in those picture. Ive only ever seen the shots of low altitude dispersion before where it obviously radiates from a point.
 
Posted without comment:


Am I reading this right?

According to Lebanon foreign minister:

US/ France had got Netanyahu to agree to in principle to a truce. As did head of Hezbollah

Next day head of Hezbollah is assassinated

So head of Hezbollah might have got complacent about security. Thinking truce was in sight is how I read it

As article says this shows that Netanyahu just doesn't want peace.

Example also being killing of Hamas major figure in Tehran

But then Biden also made clear he wasn't that bothered about killing of head of Hezbollah.
 
Am I reading this right?

According to Lebanon foreign minister:

US/ France had got Netanyahu to agree to in principle to a truce. As did head of Hezbollah

Next day head of Hezbollah is assassinated

So head of Hezbollah might have got complacent about security. Thinking truce was in sight is how I read it

As article says this shows that Netanyahu just doesn't want peace.

Example also being killing of Hamas major figure in Tehran

But then Biden also made clear he wasn't that bothered about killing of head of Hezbollah.

TBF Biden might’ve had other reasons to say that - the dead Marines being the most obvious, but also that an ally had so rigorously penetrated US security that they were able to get the location of someone that the US had been (indeed may have been at the time) negotiating with.

Like the killing of Haniyeh it is perhaps not a coincidence that negotiations with each occurred right before their deaths.
 
That would count here on these threads as example of "extreme left" talking.

Whilst this Israeli recklessness is deeply disgusting, the extremists are people like you, who choose to ignore Hezbollah's equal culpability by locating high value targets in civilian areas; and whose current outrage was conspicuous by its absence when Hamas deliberately murdered scores of kids at a rave last October.
 
Whilst this Israeli recklessness is deeply disgusting, the extremists are people like you, who choose to ignore Hezbollah's equal culpability by locating high value targets in civilian areas; and whose current outrage was conspicuous by its absence when Hamas deliberately murdered scores of kids at a rave last October.
Doctor, my sides. Get a grip. :D
 
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Whilst this Israeli recklessness is deeply disgusting, the extremists are people like you, who choose to ignore Hezbollah's equal culpability by locating high value targets in civilian areas; and whose current outrage was conspicuous by its absence when Hamas deliberately murdered scores of kids at a rave last October.
Can't see this help in getting back hostages
 
Iran is a cunt
Israel is a cunt

therefore, stalemate. that's all i got on the matter. the pub beckons where ill discuss more important shit than these handbags.
 
Except to add, there's absolutely no point quoting Lebanese leaders in this, they've basically got nothing to do with it
 
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