Israel and hezbollah after the exploding pagers

[Pickman's model]

Iran is a cunt
Israel is a cunt

therefore, stalemate. that's all i got on the matter. the pub beckons where ill discuss more important shit than these handbags.

Yes, war in the middle east, clearly nothing to see here most of us can discuss issues where we don't support either side - seems you can't

 

[Duncan2]

Occupation of the American Mind - WATCH THE FILM FOR FREE

www.occupationmovie.org

The doc looks worth watching

Found it on YouTube.



On my watch list.

Thanks for this The39thStep

Was a bit taken aback to learn that Frank Luntz was a major player in Israeli disinformation campaigns.He is frequently on Channel Four News predicting the outcome of American elections and Matt Frei et al appear to be really qiute fond of him

 

[brogdale]

I see that the UN & Ireland have told the zionists they're going nowhere.

If the IDF kill an Irish peacekeeper (as they did in 1987) that would make US political discourse interesting.

 

[HeAthen]

I see that the UN & Ireland have told the zionists they're going nowhere.

If the IDF kill an Irish peacekeeper (as they did in 1987) that would make US political discourse interesting.

View attachment 445450

Well done to Ireland and Unifil not letting Israel bully them.

 

[rutabowa]

 

[Spymaster]

Doctor, my sides. Get a grip.

Seriously. The boards are packed with leftie fundies like Gramsci.

Worse than Hitler.

 

[Smangus]

Seriously. The boards are packed with leftie fundies like Gramsci.

Worse than Hitler.

You really are a grade A dickhead.

 

[teqniq]

This appears to be a definitive account (or at least as much as we'll ever get to know) of the pager operation. According to this article the pagers were actually assembled in Israel under the supervision of the Mossad:

Mossad’s pager operation: Inside Israel’s penetration of Hezbollah

 

[brogdale]

UN increasingly concerned about IDF invasion activity close to Irish peacekeepers' posts...



e2a: this Irish Independent piece suggests that the IDF have positioned military equipment near the UNIFIL post. Possible to see how the zionists would welcome a Hezbollah strike on/near to the UN peacekeepers.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Counter-argument: each successful Iranian missile strike in Israel pushes/pulls Israel towards a larger, harder retaliation. The less damage is done, the fewer Israelis skilled/injured, the less that Israel feels it 'needs' to teach Iran a lesson - not least because the 'lesson' is showing Iran to be unable to hurt Israel.

The April attacks are an example of this: huge effort by Iran, but minimal impact on Israel - Israel did retaliate, but it was relatively small scale stuff. Imagine how Israel would have retaliated if, instead of a dozen or so missiles getting through, a hundred had got through?

So by providing Israel with unconditional military support you're making them do less evil shit?

It's certainly an interesting take on how causality works I'll give you that.

 

[SpookyFrank]

Are your lads helping Lebanese civilians defend themselves from white phosphorus kebabking?

Or does the, 'help them defend themselves so they won't retaliate and make matters worse' thing only apply to one side?

 

[Chilli.s]

Why?

(I doubt there was any kinetic UK involvement. we don't have much anti-ballistic missile capability - it's all on the T45 destroyers, and while there is one in the Med, it's a point defence capability, not a theatre wide one. I'd be genuinely surprised if UK involvement went further than radar picture from Cyprus and the RN in the Med, and signals intelligence)

Counter-argument: each successful Iranian missile strike in Israel pushes/pulls Israel towards a larger, harder retaliation. The less damage is done, the fewer Israelis skilled/injured, the less that Israel feels it 'needs' to teach Iran a lesson - not least because the 'lesson' is showing Iran to be unable to hurt Israel.

The April attacks are an example of this: huge effort by Iran, but minimal impact on Israel - Israel did retaliate, but it was relatively small scale stuff. Imagine how Israel would have retaliated if, instead of a dozen or so missiles getting through, a hundred had got through?

I always appreciate knowing your input on matters of war. My disappointment comes from a pure pacifist point of view, a gut reaction. I hope we can distance ourselves from this shit show

 

[Chilli.s]

But surely not surprised?

sadly not surprised

 

[Spymaster]

It seems that Hezbollah have been carrying bombs in their communications equipment, mainly walkie-talkies, since 2015.

The devices could be used for eavesdropping comms as well as exploding, and Israel used them purely for the former until recently. Incredible that none of them were discovered in 9 years, and more so that Israel resisted the temptation to explode any sooner. Like it or loathe it; it's been one one the most effective intelligence led military operations in history.

 

[brogdale]

It seems that Hezbollah have been carrying bombs in their communications equipment, mainly walkie-talkies, since 2015.

The devices could be used for eavesdropping comms as well as exploding, and Israel used them purely for the former until recently. Incredible that none of them were discovered in 9 years, and more so that Israel resisted the temptation to explode any sooner. Like it or loathe it; it's been one one the most effective intelligence led military operations in history.

If correct, that raises the issue that the Netanyahu regime must have known about Hezbollah’s brothers in arms plan for 07/10/23.

 

[Spymaster]

If correct, that raises the issue that the Netanyahu regime must have known about Hezbollah’s brothers in arms plan for 07/10/23.

That assumes that Hezbollah were definitely aware of the details of the Hamas attack (probable) and discussed it on pagers and walkie talkies among their soldiers (less likely). It also presumes that Israel let the October attacks happen, which they have no history of, to my knowledge, though I'm sure the idea will find some traction in some quarters. I think if they'd known, they'd have stopped it.

 

[brogdale]

That assumes that Hezbollah were definitely aware of the details of the Hamas attack (probable) and discussed it on pagers and walkie talkies among their soldiers (less likely). It also presumes that Israel let the October attacks happen, which they have no history of, to my knowledge, though I'm sure the idea will find some traction in some quarters. I think if they'd known, they'd have stopped it.

Not necessarily. The intelligence/state failure to act on the information may well have derived from the zionists’ obsession with Hezbollah as a credible military force and discounting what they heard about the very junior partner.

 

[Spymaster]

Not necessarily. The intelligence/state failure to act on the information may well have derived from the zionists’ obsession with Hezbollah as a credible military force and discounting what they heard about the very junior partner.

I think it's highly unlikely that the world's most effective military intelligence organisation would make such a mistake as to discount information that they've gone to such lengths to obtain. Far more plausible that Hamas security was up to the job in this case.

 

[brogdale]

I think it's highly unlikely that the world's most effective military intelligence organisation would make such a mistake as to discount information that they've gone to such lengths to obtain. Far more plausible that Hamas security was up to the job in this case.

Maybe, once the Netanyahu regime is gone, the state will properly investigate the failing, but the notion that Hamas did not share any information with Hezbollah directly or via their mutual overlord, stretches credibility.

 

[Spymaster]

Maybe, once the Netanyahu regime is gone, the state will properly investigate the failing, but the notion that Hamas did not share any information with Hezbollah directly or via their mutual overlord, stretches credibility.

Of course, the bugging of communictions equipment isn't the only intelligence method Israel use. In the case of Oct 7, all of their other efforts failed too. Every terror attack that has ever succeeded required some sort of intelligence failure. Either the failure to obtain it, or the failure to act upon it correctly.

Sometimes attacks will get through.

 

[tim]

Maybe, once the Netanyahu regime is gone, the state will properly investigate the failing, but the notion that Hamas did not share any information with Hezbollah directly or via their mutual overlord, stretches credibility.

Iran is a strategic ally of Hamas not an overlord.

 

[brogdale]

Iran is a strategic ally of Hamas not an overlord.

Being strategically allied does not negate the dependent nature of their relationship with Iran.

 

[brogdale]

Of course, the bugging of communictions equipment isn't the only intelligence method Israel use. In the case of Oct 7, all of their other efforts failed too. Every terror attack that has ever succeeded required some sort of intelligence failure. Either the failure to obtain it, or the failure to act upon it correctly.

Sometimes attacks will get through.

True, but the more that the media expose/celebrate the depth and ingenuity of the zionist state's intelligence victory over it's foes, the more questions the Israeli people will have about why 07/10/23 occurred.

 

[Spymaster]

True, but the more that the media expose/celebrate the depth and ingenuity of the zionist state's intelligence victory over it's foes, the more questions the Israeli people will have about why 07/10/23 occurred.

Absolutely. I doubt it's being questioned more by anyone else in the world.

 

[teqniq]

I think it's highly unlikely that the world's most effective military intelligence organisation would make such a mistake as to discount information that they've gone to such lengths to obtain. Far more plausible that Hamas security was up to the job in this case.

I have posted x2 links to articles on the main thread in which it is alleged firstly in the Times of Israel that Egyptian intelligence tried to warn the Israelis that 'something big' was going to happen wrt to Hamas and secondly in an NYT piece one of their own analysts tried to pass her concerns up the chain of command a year before October 7th that Hamas were planning a major operation. in both cases they were ignored. Explanations for this failure to act on information range from firstly an extreme reluctance to move troops to the Gaza border from the West Bank where they were engaged in protecting settlers engaged in land theft and the 'they let it happen' theory. I think the first explanation is far more likely.

 

[Spymaster]

I have posted x2 links to articles on the main thread in which it is alleged firstly in the Times of Israel that Egyptian intelligence tried to warn the Israelis that 'something big' was going to happen wrt to Hamas and secondly in an NYT piece one of their own analysts tried to pass her concerns up the chain of command a year before October 7th that Hamas were planning a major operation. in both cases they were ignored. Explanations for this failure to act on information range from firstly an extreme reluctance to move troops to the Gaza border from the West Bank where they were engaged in protecting settlers engaged in land theft and the 'they let it happen' theory. I think the first explanation is far more likely.

Yes, there's a lot of evidence for that. Also warnings from the Americans, and also that the Israelis themselves knew some kind of attack was on the cards. Most plausible explanations tend to suggest that the nature of the intelligence was too inspecific to act on without fortifying the entire Gaza border which, if not impossible, was impractical. Agree that the LIHOP stuff is delving into conspiraloon land.

 

[tim]

Being strategically allied does not negate the dependent nature of their relationship with Iran.

Given the fissiparous nature of the Iranian regime, I would assume that both Hamas and Hezbollah would keep information about such sensitive operations to themselves.

The assassination of Haniyeh, albeit after the events a year ago, is a good example of the unreliability of Iranian security. He was killed from within Iran, not by a long range ballistic missile.

 

[Idris2002]

I'd say it was "let it happen, but not on purpose" - the key factor was the assumption that a Palestinian is something closer to an animal than a human being, and therefore not a real threat.

 

[Spymaster]

fissiparous

Nice one!

Bet you've been waiting years to get that into a post.

 

[PTK]

It seems that Hezbollah have been carrying bombs in their communications equipment, mainly walkie-talkies, since 2015.

The devices could be used for eavesdropping comms as well as exploding, and Israel used them purely for the former until recently. Incredible that none of them were discovered in 9 years, and more so that Israel resisted the temptation to explode any sooner. Like it or loathe it; it's been one one the most effective intelligence led military operations in history.

"It seems" to me that this is war propaganda.