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Israel-Iran conflicts - news and discussion

Do we have it from any other reputable sources?
Reuters quotes the Axios piece. There's a bit in the Torygraph and there's this which speaks about an NYT piece but does not link to it. It also speculates that any attack would likely be after the US election whereas the Axios piece says before:

 
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Do we have it from any other reputable sources?
its pretty likely tbh, though so far every retaliatory strike hasn't done much and is more face saving than anything

why full war hasn't broken out is an interesting thing....the 'provocation' from Israel is off the chart.... i can only speculate that its either that neighbouring countries calculate they haven nothing to gain and everything to lose from full war, but also it seems likely to me that they are massively outarmed and would simply lose
 
why full war hasn't broken out is an interesting thing....the 'provocation' from Israel is off the chart.... i can only speculate that its either that neighbouring countries calculate they haven nothing to gain and everything to lose from full war, but also it seems likely to me that they are massively outarmed and would simply lose

Because horrendous though the situation in Gaza etc is Israel is losing the strategic game.

Becoming over time an international pariah and losing the goodwill of many (up to now) supporters. It (Netanyahu) needs a war to survive and force the US to defend it.

Iran does not and doesn't need a war to increase its influence. I doubt it will fall into that trap although it will rattle a few sabres.
 
Because horrendous though the situation in Gaza etc is Israel is losing the strategic game.

Becoming over time an international pariah and losing the goodwill of many (up to now) supporters. It (Netanyahu) needs a war to survive and force the US to defend it.

Iran does not and doesn't need a war to increase its influence. I doubt it will fall into that trap although it will rattle a few sabres.
Israel is indeed losing from a strategic perspective and becoming a pariah but at the end of the day it has The Bomb and the USA. Push comes to shove they will just kill everyone and everyone is very aware of that.

Both tragic and obscene very much like Israel itself.
 
Another B52 and 5 X KC135 showing themselves heading east from the med today and a few other SIGINT assets nearing Israel.
USA is puffing its chest out, the twats
 
Reuters quotes the Axios piece. There's a bit in the Torygraph and there's this which speaks about an NYT piece but does not link to it. It also speculates that any attack would likely be after the US election whereas the Axios piece says before:

..Not forgetting they state the original surce as "Israeli intelligence" well known of course both for finding shit out and making shit up
 
I think this is a significant story.


A year ago the Arab regimes were normalising relations with Israel as part of alliance against Iran. Now the cold war with Iran is thawing and Israel is falling out with the gulf monarchies. Iran are playing their cards well.
 
I think this is a significant story.


A year ago the Arab regimes were normalising relations with Israel as part of alliance against Iran. Now the cold war with Iran is thawing and Israel is falling out with the gulf monarchies. Iran are playing their cards well.
Yes, there's also this:

Saudi crown prince says Israel must not attack Iran

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Because horrendous though the situation in Gaza etc is Israel is losing the strategic game.

Becoming over time an international pariah and
I just don't see it.... USA support is rock solid.... It's nothing to do with Good Will and everything to do with strategic geopolitical interests, which are not about to change.

As long as that remains the case the strategy is an effective one
 
I just don't see it.... USA support is rock solid.... It's nothing to do with Good Will and everything to do with strategic geopolitical interests, which are not about to change.

As long as that remains the case the strategy is an effective one
In fact id go further and say many in US government actively support the policy of ethnic cleansing of Palestine and want to "get the job done".
That Netanyahu has wanted to do this his whole life is not a revelation to them - this isnt some shocking new development
 
I just saw this classic clip reposted - general Wesley Clarke recounting (in shock) how he became aware that the US "Defence" Department planned to "take out" 7 countries, those being
Iraq
Syria
Lebanon
Libya
Somalia
Sudan
Iran



A simple before and after view of those countries now and twenty years ago tells its own story

Iran last on the list and always the prize they didn't quite dare go for yet.
The signs are there that Trump might just be the one to finish the list
 
I just saw this classic clip reposted - general Wesley Clarke recounting (in shock) how he became aware that the US "Defence" Department planned to "take out" 7 countries, those being
Iraq
Syria
Lebanon
Libya
Somalia
Sudan
Iran



A simple before and after view of those countries now and twenty years ago tells its own story

Iran last on the list and always the prize they didn't quite dare go for yet.
The signs are there that Trump might just be the one to finish the list

'The Plan' referred to there is, of course, the Project for a New American Century when Rumsfeld and his goons were at the DoD. And I understand the conversation reported was from 2001 when they'd recently come to power and were full of themselves with what they were going to achieve.

Obviously Iraq was the one on that list they went for first and it was such a disaster - for the people of Iraq, for the US, for regional stability, for the stability of global geopolitics - that the idea of enforcing global US hegemony through military might was recognised as an over ambitious dream and PNAC folded in 2006 (naturally claiming 'job done').

Sudan also had plentiful problems in the PNAC period, but I'm not sure how much the Darfur civil war/genocide can be pinned on the US. Al-Bashir started the period having mutual emnity with the US, but came to heal in the war on terror and the janjaweed and other militias were supported by Libya, another country on the tick list.

Somalia is a weird one to have on the list as by 2001 there was no functioning Somali state, the country having descended into warlordism. It's probably there because of the US's embarrassing failures there in the 90s.

With the end of the Bush administration in 2009 The Plan was probably dead, but that doesn't mean US geopolitical interests had changed and when opportunities arose for regime change in countries the US state dislikes Obama was happy to grab them.

So when the Benghazi revolution happened in Libya and Sarkozy & Cameron were jumping up and down saying something must be done the US was all well okay then. The US was happy to bomb the Libyan rebels to victory against Ghaddafi without a thought for the consequences, which have been a disaster for the country and region.

When the uprising against Assad happened in Syria the US was happy to provide support to the rebels

When Netenyahu decided to invade Lebanon to destroy Hezbollah Biden has been happy to let him get on with it using US supplied weapons, making anyone else who might get involved back off with a carrier fleet or three.

But I'm not sure these post Bush actions are part of The Plan, rather business as usual post '45 US foreign policy promoting the US state's perceived strategic interests as the cost of uncountable lives and chaos.

Hawks in the US would love to go after Iran, but that's always been an awkward challenge for the US militarily and geographically. And it's complicated by the current world order with an assertively forward Russia, it's economy geared to war after their Ukrainian adventure (however that ends; badly for Ukraine presumably), being friendly with Iran and China in opposition to US aims of being global number one. Quite where all this will go with Trump's next presidency is anyone's guess.
 
Hawks in the US would love to go after Iran, but that's always been an awkward challenge for the US militarily and geographically. And it's complicated by the current world order with an assertively forward Russia, it's economy geared to war after their Ukrainian adventure (however that ends; badly for Ukraine presumably), being friendly with Iran and China in opposition to US aims of being global number one. Quite where all this will go with Trump's next presidency is anyone's guess.

I am not sure that many of them do - there were some who wanted that (and PNAC were circulating that plan), and the pro-Israeli lobby were pushing for it but the vast majority of US strategists probably recognized that having Iran there scared the rest of the Gulf into a position of dependence upon the US. This is still largely the case now, so why they'd upset that applecart - especially Trump who has stronger ties to the various rulers than even Bush did - now on behalf of the ingrate Netanyahu is something I think its very unlikely.
 
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