Trump's Second Term: U.S. News and Politics

[nino_savatte]

Something that resembles Estado Novo (with added cult of personality) has just landed in the USA.

 

[Smokeandsteam]

Indeed, I'd like to see us increase home-grown industries to reduce our environmental effects along with reliance on imports and exports altogether. If trump does slap tariffs on the uk's imports though, I think we'll need to find alternative countries to sell to, or quite a few of the working class will become unemployed.

Indeed. A good example is car manufacture. At present it’s our number one export to the USA, but we also import far more than we sell.

It’s almost like we need an industrial strategy based on the needs of a national economy with full employment and well paid work at its heart. If only we had a Labour government…

 

[bluescreen]

David Allen Green explains that Executive Orders aren't all what they seem to be, at least, most of them aren't. Most are sheer performance, declarations of intention or just memos, not executive acts.

But

This is not to say that some – maybe many – of these Executive Orders are not going to have adverse effects for somebody – especially in the short term.

Indeed, given the many partisan conservative judges now on the federal bench, there will be energetic judicial exertions to give effect to otherwise shoddy Executive Orders.

But what it does mean is that we should be careful not to accept everything at face value.

For a flurry of Executive Orders may be little different from a flurry of Press Releases.

And we should be mindful that we are dealing with con-artist conjurers.

Looking critically at Trump’s flurry of Executive Orders: why we should watch what is done, and not to be distracted by what is said

21st January 2025 Around Westminster, the most useful guides to the nature of modern politics may not be the journalists and commentators, still less the ‘think tanks’ with their portentous names a…

davidallengreen.com

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Last time around, Trump campaigned on policies that might help the working class and delivered policies that helped corporations and their billionaire bosses, hard to imagine things will be any different this time around, especially since he never has to worry about getting votes from the Rust Belt or anywhere else again - I think the linking of the threat of tariffs on Canadian goods to the almost nonexistent flow of fentanyl to the US across the Canadian border instead of to any industries that might thrive if Canadian imports were eliminated shows that he's all bluster on the issue

It's a bizarre tactic. Tariffs are not a policy. They're a threat. And what happens when his bluff is called?

 

[Pickman's model]

It's a bizarre tactic. Tariffs are not a policy. They're a threat. And what happens when his bluff is called?

the eu begs to differ

Tariffs are a form of foreign trade regulation and a policy that taxes foreign products in order to promote or protect domestic industry.

Tariffs | Access2Markets

Tariffs (duties)

trade.ec.europa.eu

as does wikipedia Tariff - Wikipedia

it's a policy which trump's using as a tool to get his way, saying it's a threat when they've been applied before ignores that er he has applied them before.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

the eu begs to differ

Tariffs | Access2Markets

Tariffs (duties)

trade.ec.europa.eu

You misunderstood my post. Tariffs are not a policy with joined-up rationale for Trump.

 

[Pickman's model]

You misunderstood my post. Tariffs are not a policy with joined-up rationale for Trump.

but they have been and i see no reason why they might not be again Trump tariffs - Wikipedia you might disagree with his rationale, but there definitely is a rationale in trump's mind

 

[gosub]

It's a bizarre tactic. Tariffs are not a policy. They're a threat. And what happens when his bluff is called?

Republicans have the House Senate and the White House...they bring in tarrifs

 

[gosub]

but they have been and i see no reason why they might not be again Trump tariffs - Wikipedia you might disagree with his rationale, but there definitely is a rationale in trump's mind

China been moving a lot of trade thru Vietnam last couple of months to try and get ahead of tarrifs...not sure Trump nuking NAFTA will have been on their radar.

Doesn't seem irrational to me

 

[Pickman's model]

China been moving a lot of trade thru Vietnam last couple of months to try and get ahead of tarrifs...not sure Trump nuking NAFTA will have been on their radar.

Doesn't seem irrational to me

yeh i don't think it's irrational

 

[story]

Interesting to see if Gates stays firm on supporting vaccinations; given the RFK appointment obviously not something the new admin backs. Astonishing a private individual is such a significant funder of the WHO.

Looks like Trump has already been working to get Gates onside.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5092973-bill-gates-donald-trump-meeting/

Trump reportedly got “pretty excited” as they discussed the potential development of a cure for HIV and polio mitigation efforts.

“He, in the Covid days, accelerated the vaccine innovation,” Gates said, according to WSJ. “So I was asking him if maybe the same kind of thing could be done here, and we both got, I think, pretty excited about that.”

Gates’s foundation, the Bill and Melina Gates Foundation, notably has initiatives targeting both issues.

“He was fascinated to hear what he could do to maximize the chance that during the next four years that incredible milestone will be achieved,” Gates said of possibly eradicating polio.


“I felt like he was energized and looking forward to helping to drive innovation,” Gates said about the conversation during the nearly three-hour dinner. “I was frankly impressed with how well he showed a lot of interest in the issues I brought up.”

You can’t tell me the meeting and the withdrawal aren’t connected in some way.

So… Trump has withdrawn from the WHO in order to corner the vaccination market?
What’s the grift? What’s the angle? What’s the agenda?

 

[story]

Can't remember if I read it on here or elsewhere but RFK was saying they would defund any schools who required children to be vaccinated against all the usual stuff (MMR etc.) before they could be enrolled in the school.

Excuse me if this is a repost…

A reminder that Trump has promised to allow back all military who were forced out because they refused the Covid vaccine. And they’ll get back pay. So he’s sanctioning vaccine refusers in the military. If he could do the same for schools, he would. Amidst his other threats against schooling, it’s very possible he’ll include vaccinations when/if he can.

One way and another, he’s sanctioning stupid.

 

[story]

The federal government provides 13.6% of funding for public education, according to this website - schools in most states are already massively underfunded and it's getting worse, so I don't think there are many schools that could afford to write off more than a seventh of their funding

Another way to tie them into sucking his cock.

For all the noise about getting rid of government, he’s working really hard to make it very tricky to work independently of the government.

 

[gosub]

Looks like Trump has already been working to get Gates onside.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5092973-bill-gates-donald-trump-meeting/

You can’t tell me the meeting and the withdrawal aren’t connected in some way.

So… Trump has withdrawn from the WHO in order to corner the vaccination market?
What’s the grift? What’s the Nike? What’s the agenda?

Think it's more covid and WHO being in China's pocket

 

[story]

Indeed, it’s a complete disaster for us all. However, the message that we can’t treat the planet as a resource to be used up has gradually propagated over time and continues to grow. My one hope is that this social process continues and that ultimately this produces resistance to planetary exploitation. This is undoubtedly a massive roadblock to it though, which will cost us all very dear instead.

I fear that as things get trickier and tighter for people at their own lived level, they’ll do more and more to preserve their own freedoms and fuck the consequences. The social contract has essentially broken down. It’s now about how we decide to work with each other at a much smaller scale. Village scale.

That’s (one of the reasons) Trump and other populists are gaining ground, and people who vote for them are being rewarded by seeing Their Guy come to power. The small pushbacks are not victories.

 

[story]

Think it's more covid and WHO being in China's pocket

I’d wager that Trump has been talking with China over the winter in preparation for his triumphant return to power.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Republicans have the House Senate and the White House...they bring in tarrifs

Point is that he's using tariffs as a foreign policy tool rather than as a domestic policy tool. If he thinks it's the right thing to do for domestic policy, he should do it, regardless of how friendly or hostile a particular country might be. If not, he shouldn't.

 

[story]

I’ve been typing a post on the pre flagged WHO departure for ages but it keeps disappearing. I’m now fed up and just posting a quote from the BMJ:

“Nor must we forget the abundant risks to those promoting global public health in the US. Many American universities, which host many collaborating centres, may themselves face serious threats from the new administration6whose members have portrayed them as bastions of a “woke” elite. The global community will also have to contend with a vast increase in disinformation and science scepticism, which foment distrust in public health, including WHO. Public health agencies in the US are now being led by individuals with few qualifications who question basic scientific principles”

The US withdrawal from the WHO: a global health crisis in the making

In a major blow to global health, the US administration has announced plans to withdraw from the World Health Organization. Kent Buse and colleagues propose urgent actions for the international community to mitigate the damage. When the previous Trump administration announced its withdrawal...

www.bmj.com

Bloody phone.

Yeah, the knock on effects of all his policies will have long term devastating consequences in every arena. Some of them will only become apparent down the line.

One of the most significant effects is the sense of doom and resignation, which is so hard to get past, so hard to work with.

I really don’t know what can be done. Voting doesn’t help when the mandate is this powerful. All seven swing states.

 

[story]

As appalling as I find his policies, and a lot of them will hit many people very hard for a very long time, they can be un-done or sat least softened by future politicians, unions, grassroots orgs, or the people themselves....takes ha d work, dedication and international solidarity, and doesn't help the people in the firing line just now, but they are just that - policies, if very cruel ones.
Climate change however is different....there will be a time when hunger for profit and dependency on fossil fuels will take us beyond a point of return, or at least sufficient patching.
Trump's hastily signed policies (out of ego / spite / pressure from other people / greed) are here to stay, well beyond his presidency

The problem, though, is that there has been a sea change, a cultural shift. I don’t know how that can be undone.

 

[gosub]

Point is that he's using tariffs as a foreign policy tool rather than as a domestic policy tool. If he thinks it's the right thing to do for domestic policy, he should do it, regardless of how friendly or hostile a particular country might be. If not, he shouldn't.

Von der Leyen on Trump: EU will be pragmatic but protect its interests

"A lot is at stake" in EU-US relations, Ursula von der Leyen said the day after Donald Trump's inauguration. #EuropeNews

www.euronews.com

EU President is herself sounding alarm bells about China dumping...whilst trying to boost EU trade with Mexico. -backdooring US thru NAFTA.

Don't get me wrong tarrifs are going to make downturn worse...but globalism as is ...can see why US is jinking

 

[story]

David Allen Green explains that Executive Orders aren't all what they seem to be, at least, most of them aren't. Most are sheer performance, declarations of intention or just memos, not executive acts.

But

Looking critically at Trump’s flurry of Executive Orders: why we should watch what is done, and not to be distracted by what is said

21st January 2025 Around Westminster, the most useful guides to the nature of modern politics may not be the journalists and commentators, still less the ‘think tanks’ with their portentous names a…

davidallengreen.com

Yeah, it’s just a bludgeon really. That’s why he does it so ostentatiously. It’s for effect. He’s essentially a carny act, a medicine show, selling his snake oil. But it’s a tactic that works, it takes in the suckers, and they are loud and they have to go on believing, otherwise they see that they’re suckers.

Meanwhile, behind the curtain, he’s working hard to get things done his way.

 

[Dandred]

 

[gosub]

I’d wager that Trump has been talking with China over the winter in preparation for his triumphant return to power.

Has indeed and tbf probably does have more insight into China's woes (property bubble pop) than most western politicans

 

[story]

Has indeed and tbf probably does have more insight into China's woes (property bubble pop) than most western politicans

This is the thing. People consider him stupid, but he really isn’t. He’s cunning. That’s better than clever for his purposes, and those of the people now riding his coattails.

If it’s expedient for him to study China, listen to and take advice from those who understand Chinese affairs, he’ll do it. His pride is not larger than his ambition.

He works very hard for what he wants, in ways that make no sense to normal people (we wouldn’t go there, just wouldn’t) and he ditches what doesn’t work for him without a backward glance (bankruptcies, unpaid wages, raped women). His system works well for him, he’s determined and committed, he’s clearsighted, he’s powerful, he has the support of the mega rich, and he’s free of any conscience. That’s a powerful combination. Think of him as a tool that can also be a weapon.

(Just to save anyone from making a whole post about it: tool fnar fnar)


He’s dismissed too easily as a twat, an orange Cheeto, all the stupid names that attempt to diminish his significance and impact. That’s self soothing. We ‘re fucked.

He knows what he’s doing and he’s now in a position to push it all through.

Hope for the Dems to wake up, for the left to bestir themselves, the rest of the world to curb him, it’s all pie in the sky now, or at least for the present.

If the US president were somehow a person who prioritised the climate emergency, there may be some hope. Instead we have a bunch of mega rich asset strippers hell-bent on profiting at all and any cost.



I’ll be watching with scant but blazing hope for a way back, but for now I’m just gritting my teeth and holding on.

 

[Pickman's model]

On the positive side each day we're a bit nearer the end of his term

 

[story]

On the positive side each day we're a bit nearer the end of his term

That ignores the larger issue of those who support and endorse him, those who benefit and profit from his agenda. It’s not just him.

I think they’ll work up some policy candy for his constituency, enough to ensure the Republicans get returned next time with or without Trump. They need to play it carefully though, in order to get it right ( after all, it’s the working person they’ll be screwing over). They’ll wait and see what most voters are most exercised by as they go along and they’ll fling out the bread and circuses as needed. In the meantime, right now, they’re working to build strong foundations for their agenda, with a view to keep going past this term.

 

[Pickman's model]

That ignores the larger issue of those who support and endorse him, those who benefit and profit from his agenda. It’s not just him.

I think they’ll work up some policy candy for his constituency, enough to ensure the Republicans get returned next time with or without Trump. They need to play it carefully though, in order to get it right ( after all, it’s the working person they’ll be screwing over). They’ll wait and see what most voters are most exercised by as they go along and they’ll fling out the bread and circuses as needed. In the meantime, right now, they’re working to build strong foundations for their agenda, with a view to keep going past this term.

i don't doubt it but let's not fear the post 2028 election bit yet. it's obvious that the actions against immigrants are but a precursor to action on americans who aren't white, so we can anticipate at the least measures to prevent sections of the population voting both in terms of voter suppression and on the actual right to vote. reckon they'll try to turn the clock back to before the civil rights era. still, at least it won't be trump running in 2028. let's take some small comfort from that.

 

[story]

i don't doubt it but let's not fear the post 2028 election bit yet. it's obvious that the actions against immigrants are but a precursor to action on americans who aren't white, so we can anticipate at the least measures to prevent sections of the population voting both in terms of voter suppression and on the actual right to vote. reckon they'll try to turn the clock back to before the civil rights era. still, at least it won't be trump running in 2028. let's take some small comfort from that.

Yeah, I’m not disagreeing with you really, but it’s obvious that anyone who might follow Trump needs to be less clown-like and more statesmanlike. I can’t see such a person being less dangerous.

 

[Pickman's model]

Yeah, I’m not disagreeing with you really, but it’s obvious that anyone who might follow Trump needs to be less clown-like and more statesmanlike. I can’t see such a person being less dangerous.

oh i think trump's plenty dangerous enough with the way he wraps a lot of journos (and others) up in checking the facts in what he says. he's a very useful ability to bamboozle and to waste his opponents' time. and that's while we are in a world in which some remnants of checks and balances remain. whoever succeeds trump will be in a position where they don't need to lay the bedrock of authoritarianism and fascism, they'll be building on the solid foundation trump's laying now.

 

[story]

oh i think trump's plenty dangerous enough with the way he wraps a lot of journos (and others) up in checking the facts in what he says. he's a very useful ability to bamboozle and to waste his opponents' time. and that's while we are in a world in which some remnants of checks and balances remain. whoever succeeds trump will be in a position where they don't need to lay the bedrock of authoritarianism and fascism, they'll be building on the solid foundation trump's laying now.

It’s a very effective tactic, not least because it fools people into thinking he’s not smart.


And yes, this is why I think we’re fucked. Fascism is no longer unlikely.