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Hamas/Israel conflict: news and discussion

Yes and no. I have a good idea what crowds of between 5,000 and 50,000 look like from attending sports events.

So the police estimate of 10,000 for last week was ludicrously low. That's two Leyton Orients. I can guarantee it was way higher than that. A couple of Fulhams at least.

This week was way, way more than a Wembley.
Pure guesswork, but I'd have thought there would be ways of getting reasonably close numbers combining aerial shots with the rate of flow past certain points (along with other bits and pieces about numbers joining marches half way through etc.). In fact, I'd guess those realistic estimates would be needed by police both on the day and when it comes to policing future demos.
 
Pure guesswork, but I'd have thought there would be ways of getting reasonably close numbers combining aerial shots with the rate of flow past certain points (along with other bits and pieces about numbers joining marches half way through etc.). In fact, I'd guess those realistic estimates would be needed by police both on the day and when it comes to policing future demos.
Yep. I've just posted similar. I have no doubt that there are ways of obtaining reliable estimates of crowds on marches.
 
Yes and no. I have a good idea what crowds of between 5,000 and 50,000 look like from attending sports events.

So the police estimate of 10,000 for last week was ludicrously low. That's two Leyton Orients. I can guarantee it was way higher than that. A couple of Fulhams at least.

This week was way, way more than a Wembley.
I disagree. I've seen 60,000 people at the Emirates but I think 60,000 people walking along one street looks really rather different. I know the capacity of trafalgar Square is about 25,000 but again how many Whitehalls is that? Did you stand and watch the whole thing go by?
 
Yep. I've just posted similar. I have no doubt that there are ways of obtaining reliable estimates of crowds on marches.
In fact, still guessing, I'd imagine there's cheap software available that could work out the numbers in static overhead shots, along with live predictions of total numbers (or at least 'by 2 pm there are likely to be X people in location Y').
 
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Done, despite it being a waste of time, trouble is if it hits 100k, it is only 'considered' for a debate, and it'll be rejected at that point.
Looks like another gaza one has overtaken it now.

1697910696295.png
 
Pure guesswork, but I'd have thought there would be ways of getting reasonably close numbers combining aerial shots with the rate of flow past certain points (along with other bits and pieces about numbers joining marches half way through etc.). In fact, I'd guess those realistic estimates would be needed by police both on the day and when it comes to policing future demos.
There are of course ways of obtaining an accurate figure and quite possibly the police use them for their own purposes. But those might not be immediately available and the police estimates given are often for political purposes anyway
 
Moving the goal posts now.

1 hour ago
A senior Israeli army official has said that the definition of what constitutes a "legitimate target" has now changed, and that private homes could be considered a legitimate target.

According to the official, civilian infrastructure used by Hamas "turns a private home into a legitimate target".
"Anyone who supports that home is a legitimate target," he added, as reported in Israeli media.

The official also acknowledged that the Israeli army has attacked homes where there are civilians living among alleged terrorists.

MEE
 
I disagree. I've seen 60,000 people at the Emirates but I think 60,000 people walking along one street looks really rather different. I know the capacity of trafalgar Square is about 25,000 but again how many Whitehalls is that? Did you stand and watch the whole thing go by?
Last week, I reached the end then walked the length of it going back. This week that wasn't possible due to the sheer weight of numbers. Having walked back past shit loads of people, I stood watching shit loads more people streaming through Piccadilly Circus for about 40 minutes.

Of course, it's hard to get an overview, but both times I spent a couple of hours marching followed by a couple of hours retracing my steps trying to get a sense of the whole thing (not really interested in the speeches). The whole length of Park Lane was packed for two or more hours at the start of the march with people filing through. It felt reminiscent of the 2 million people shuffle against the Iraq War.
 
Moving the goal posts now.

1 hour ago
A senior Israeli army official has said that the definition of what constitutes a "legitimate target" has now changed, and that private homes could be considered a legitimate target.

According to the official, civilian infrastructure used by Hamas "turns a private home into a legitimate target".
"Anyone who supports that home is a legitimate target," he added, as reported in Israeli media.

The official also acknowledged that the Israeli army has attacked homes where there are civilians living among alleged terrorists.

MEE
So seeing as hamas have been providing a range of services over the past number of years - as councils do here - basically everything in gaza is for the zionists a legitimate target
 
Last week, I reached the end then walked the length of it going back. This week that wasn't possible due to the sheer weight of numbers. Having walked back past shit loads of people, I stood watching shit loads more people streaming through Piccadilly Circus for about 40 minutes.

Of course, it's hard to get an overview, but both times I spent a couple of hours marching followed by a couple of hours retracing my steps trying to get a sense of the whole thing (not really interested in the speeches). The whole length of Park Lane was packed for two or more hours at the start of the march with people filing through. It felt reminiscent of the 2 million people shuffle against the Iraq War.
Let's go 424,000 as a happy estimate then
 
So seeing as hamas have been providing a range of services over the past number of years - as councils do here - basically everything in gaza is for the zionists a legitimate target
There is that of course. But also Hamas fighters don't wear 'I'm with Hamas' T-shirts. Basically any young man who is killed is going to get labelled Hamas retrospectively.
 
A square meter is roughly enough for two people to stand next to each other, Trafalgar Square is 12000 sq mtrs so if from a drone or a chopper it looks full it's safe bet that there are about 25000 people there.I'm sure Plod knows how far across Picadilly Circus is. Knowing that and the fact that a large group of people marching is going to be moving at a couple of km per hour. It's hardly rocket science to work out how many people cross it in 40 mins, there's no need to try and actually count them. There's no value in knowing the crowd was actually 101,355 rather than about 100,000.
 
So seeing as hamas have been providing a range of services over the past number of years - as councils do here - basically everything in gaza is for the zionists a legitimate target
Yes, that was the attitude of the IDF in previous operations against the Gaza Strip. The local rubbish collection service offices would be a target.
 
My rule of thumb used to be to split the difference between the estimates of the police and of the Socialist Workers Party.
Yeah same me until they started claiming ludicrously big numbers for everything they were involved in…
 
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There is that of course. But also Hamas fighters don't wear 'I'm with Hamas' T-shirts. Basically any young man who is killed is going to get labelled Hamas retrospectively.
The State of Israel learned this from Uncle Sam's example in Vietnam.
Every peasant tending a field in the Mekong Delta who was blown apart by a missile was by definition a member of the "Vietcong".
 
A square meter is roughly enough for two people to stand next to each other, Trafalgar Square is 12000 sq mtrs so if from a drone or a chopper it looks full it's safe bet that there are about 25000 people there.I'm sure Plod knows how far across Picadilly Circus is. Knowing that and the fact that a large group of people marching is going to be moving at a couple of km per hour. It's hardly rocket science to work out how many people cross it in 40 mins, there's no need to try and actually count them. There's no value in knowing the crowd was actually 101,355 rather than about 100,000.
If you’ve ever been to a gig you’d know you can fit four people in a square meter.😬
 
Genuine question: given we’ve had a week since the 24 hours notice and repeated expectation of a ground invasion, why hasn’t one started yet?
 
The State of Israel learned this from Uncle Sam's example in Vietnam.
Every peasant tending a field in the Mekong Delta who was blown apart by a missile was by definition a member of the "Vietcong".
No doubt done before then as well. They did similar with the Taliban.
 
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If you’ve ever been to a gig you’d know you can fit four people in a square meter.😬
You can get more if you're not too fussed about them breathing but moving along in a slow shuffle carrying stuff and waving flags is a different matter. Police and especially TfL estimates are usually accurate(ish) because they need to know how to respond be it getting emergency vehicles through, busting heads should the need arise or even laying on extra tube trains and buses afterwards.
 
They're shitting themselves over how many Israeli conscripts will be slaughtered? (I also feel sorry for them caught up in this shit.)

I don't think it's this. They set out their stall clearly a week ago giving acceptance of high casualty figures.

But I raised the same point on Wed or Thu. Something has put the brake on. Last weekend BN said "We are ready to go".

There's certainly no change of heart. They want deaths, and lots of them. Those 20 lorries aren't being followed up by anything until next week at least (and there are no promises of that even).

The more they flatten buildings and starve people, the easier the invasion?

They have to ACT tough soon, or they will be seen to be weak.

Probably not a great week ahead.
 
Yes and no. I have a good idea what crowds of between 5,000 and 50,000 look like from attending sports events.

So the police estimate of 10,000 for last week was ludicrously low. That's two Leyton Orients. I can guarantee it was way higher than that. A couple of Fulhams at least.

This week was way, way more than a Wembley.
 
I don't think it's this. They set out their stall clearly a week ago giving acceptance of high casualty figures.

But I raised the same point on Wed or Thu. Something has put the brake on. Last weekend BN said "We are ready to go".

There's certainly no change of heart. They want deaths, and lots of them. Those 20 lorries aren't being followed up by anything until next week at least (and there are no promises of that even).

The more they flatten buildings and starve people, the easier the invasion?

They have to ACT tough soon, or they will be seen to be weak.

Probably not a great week ahead.


that and when the flatten the place , they can also say we gave enough warning

so clearly everyone in the effected zone is a hamas fighter


which is bullshite as they clearly now said they are going to retain much of north gaza


one thing all the attention on Gaza is doing is giving them free reign in the westbank as eye are averted
 
Genuine question: given we’ve had a week since the 24 hours notice and repeated expectation of a ground invasion, why hasn’t one started yet?
Watching CNN last night afterwards the 2 American hostages were released, they had some guy on pontificating that the real reason Hamas had left them go was to give the IDF pause for thought in case Hamas decided to let more go and the IDF might wait to see if they do.
They were also on about Biden is not keen on a ground assault and is leaning on Bonkers Ben to consider other options, no-one is under any illusion a ground assault is going to be anything other than a bloodbath and it will be far from one sided.
The longer the IDF delays a ground assault the more Hamas fighters might get killed by the IAF bombing Gaza back to the Stone Age.
I'm sure there must be plenty of other good reasons as well.
 
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