Hamas/Israel conflict: news and discussion

[Aladdin]

 

[2hats]

Loads of news agencies have been saying for 30 mins or more that ballistic missiles have been launched.

Clearly not then. Some observers may have mistaken LACM in boost phase as ballistic missiles in ascent.

 

[planetgeli]

Clearly not then. Some observers may have mistaken LACM in boost phase as ballistic missiles in ascent.

That's exactly what I thought and edited my post accordingly.

 

[Wookey]

Apparently, the hundred-strong Iranian drone army is set to arrive over Israel at midnight.

Not a sentence I expected to write this lifetime, but there you go.

 

[kebabking]

TBF the US and UK statements from the top have both said they'll help Israel defend against this attack, but that no further escalation should take place. That sounds like the Israelis will be asked to take this one on the chin and will get no help with any attack on Iran.

Yeah, I don't think the the US has any interest in getting into a war with Iran, not least for the shallowest of domestic political reasons - but this shit has a way of spiraling out of control. If an Iranian BM lands on a Paediatric Intensive care ward in Tel Aviv and kills 50 babies, then what the US wanted to avoid might become a requirement.

The Iranians are also threatening anyone who allows Israel to fly through their airspace to Attack Iran - it looks like Jordan (possibly KSA?) have allowed Israeli fighters into their airspace to shoot down the incoming drones and CM - so if Iran attacks Jordan or KSA, and they demand US help, the US either helps them (and it's a lot easier to bomb a launch site than it is to shoot down a hundred drones...) or makes another push for this decades award for the most unreliable security partner...

US carrier group in the Red Sea - their fighters can shoot down drones and cruise missiles, and their Air Defence ships can shoot down ballistic missiles - to what degree they'll get involved, or want to get involved - is a tea leaves job.

Houthis firing from Yemen, Hezbollah firing from Lebanon. Plenty of opportunities for this to go bad.

 

[T & P]

Apparently, the hundred-strong Iranian drone army is set to arrive over Israel at midnight.

Not a sentence I expected to write this lifetime, but there you go.

I’m far removed from a military expert but my bet would be the drones are going there to overwhelm/ distract the Israeli defences and give their oncoming missiles a better chance to break through.

 

[Balbi]

Good news everyone, Iran have said they're done and it's concluded.

If this language sounds weird it's because it's similar that the US used when they bombed some Iranian positions in Syria back in October 2023.

Iran are sticking to the rule book here, very clearly stating the justification.

 

[Wookey]

Iranian X message from the Iranian Mission to the UN..

Conducted on the strength of Article 51 of the UN Charter pertaining to legitimate defense, Iran’s military action was in response to the Zionist regime’s aggression against our diplomatic premises in Damascus. The matter can be deemed concluded. However, should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be considerably more severe. It is a conflict between Iran and the rogue Israeli regime, from which the U.S. MUST STAY AWAY!

 

[Wookey]

I’m far removed from a military expert but my bet would be the drones are going there to overwhelm/ distract the Israeli defences and give their oncoming missiles a better chance to break through.

That is precisely what a military expert just said on LBC, drones to use up the missile defences, then a second wave of missiles go in with less opposition.

 

[Wookey]

Good news everyone, Iran have said they're done and it's concluded.

If this language sounds weird it's because it's the same that the US used when they bombed some Iranian positions in Syria back in October 2023.

Iran are sticking to the rule book here.

I wondered about the tense, the claim that it's over before the drones have even exploded...it's a piss-take.

 

[2hats]

Sounds like the guided missile destroyers in the Med are intercepting HA targets.

 

[Bingoman]

Watching sky news live their is reports from their reporter Alex Rossi Sirens and explosions going off

 

[Gramsci]

Kind of thought it had already gone "bad" for Palestinians for decades myself.

And now Israel state has been mass murdering Palestinians and destroying the infrastructure of Gaza to make it unliveable.

Plus decades of gradual ethnic cleansing in West Bank.

It hasn't just suddenly got bad with Iranian attack.

There is a context. Depending from where you are looking at this conflict

 

[Wookey]

Biden is in the O Shit Shed.

(Situation Room)

It's gonna kick off.

 

[agricola]

Yeah, I don't think the the US has any interest in getting into a war with Iran, not least for the shallowest of domestic political reasons - but this shit has a way of spiraling out of control. If an Iranian BM lands on a Paediatric Intensive care ward in Tel Aviv and kills 50 babies, then what the US wanted to avoid might become a requirement.

The Iranians are also threatening anyone who allows Israel to fly through their airspace to Attack Iran - it looks like Jordan (possibly KSA?) have allowed Israeli fighters into their airspace to shoot down the incoming drones and CM - so if Iran attacks Jordan or KSA, and they demand US help, the US either helps them (and it's a lot easier to bomb a launch site than it is to shoot down a hundred drones...) or makes another push for this decades award for the most unreliable security partner...

US carrier group in the Red Sea - their fighters can shoot down drones and cruise missiles, and their Air Defence ships can shoot down ballistic missiles - to what degree they'll get involved, or want to get involved - is a tea leaves job.

Houthis firing from Yemen, Hezbollah firing from Lebanon. Plenty of opportunities for this to go bad.

The key bit is "attack Iran" - shooting down drones that invade another countries airspace or threaten its shipping or military bases is not attacking Iran. I think the US will defend against these incoming threats but I'd be surprised if they do anything like take part in (even if its just to refuel) any subsequent strike; they don't have the strength in the area to do anything and I think patience with Netanyahu ran out some time last week.

 

[Balbi]

Iran going "no takesy backsies" before their attack even strikes is amusing tbh, like full on turn around touch the ground bagsie I'm not it behaviour.

 

[T & P]

Good news everyone, Iran have said they're done and it's concluded.

If this language sounds weird it's because it's similar that the US used when they bombed some Iranian positions in Syria back in October 2023.

Iran are sticking to the rule book here, very clearly stating the justification.

Not that it has a snowball’s chance in hell of preventing an Israeli retaliation, but at the very least it’s not as bad as them declaring war on Israel or even announcing a Putin-style ‘special operation’ with further objectives they will seek to achieve.

 

[Balbi]

Not that it has a snowball’s chance in hell of preventing an Israeli retaliation, but at the very least it’s not as bad as them declaring war on Israel or even announcing a Putin-style ‘special operation’ with further objectives they will seek to achieve.

I'd argue that Iran are a far more rational actor in the region than Israel right now, and the US knows that too despite the pomp and bluster.

 

[agricola]

I'd argue that Iran are a far more rational actor in the region than Israel right now, and the US knows that too despite the pomp and bluster.

Everyone in the region is, and has been for some time. Last year, before October 7th Netanyahu twice took part in four-way talks with regional partners where he promised to stop settlement building in writing and (presumably) in negotiations. Those promises lasted for as long as it took him to fly back to Israel. His word is so valueless it couldn't even by DJT stock.

 

[Dogsauce]

Twitter is full of clips of meteor showers, assorted old footage from other conflicts and computer game stuff. Clout-chasing morons are reducing the signal to noise ratio, so treat stuff with scepticism as usual.

 

[Raheem]

Iran are claiming three successful strikes so far.

 

[T & P]

According to Al Jazeera, Jordanian fighters are in the air and have shot down several Iranian drones flying over Jordan’s sovereign airspace.

I am somewhat surprised about this. I know Jordan has had for many years as civilised diplomatic relations with Israel as an Arab State could have, and have USAF bases in their territory, but such proactive approach to protect Israel is unexpected. I guess a more likely explanation is that they’re doing it to protect their own people and intercepting the drones over their vast unpopulated desert areas to prevent the possibility of any of them falling short over Amman, or even the Israelis flying into Jordanian airspace without permission to shoot them down themselves.

 

[Ted Bunting]

Depending from where you are looking at this conflict

Some from the: whaaay, whoosh, bang! perspective

 

[agricola]

According to Al Jazeera, Jordanian fighters are in the air and have shot down several Iranian drones flying over Jordan’s sovereign airspace.

I am somewhat surprised about this. I know Jordan has had for many years as civilised diplomatic relations with Israel as an Arab State could have, and have USAF bases in their territory, but such proactive approach to protect Israel is unexpected. I guess a more likely explanation is that they’re doing it to protect their own people and intercepting the drones over their vast unpopulated desert areas to prevent the possibility of any of them falling short over Amman, or even the Israelis flying into Jordanian airspace without permission to shoot them down themselves.

I don't think there could be any objection to Jordan, KSA, Iraq or any other state (whose airspace has been entered by armed drones without permission) shooting them down irrespective of where they were headed.

 

[T & P]

I don't think there could be any objection to Jordan, KSA, Iraq or any other state (whose airspace has been entered by armed drones without permission) shooting them down irrespective of where they were headed.

Certainly not at official level, but most definitely with their general population. Moderate and militant-free as the country is in its relations with Israel compared with many of the other countries in the region, there is monumental anger on the streets about Israel’s recent actions in Gaza. I suspect most people would have chosen to take their chances with the oncoming drones rather than get their armed forces to aid the State of Israel.

 

[krtek a houby]

Technically they are



One hour you’re demanding commentary from a poster who updated the thread with necessary information. The next you’re subjecting us to shitty puns/expressions.

Get some kip, will ya…

Don't start your vendetta on this thread please.

 

[krtek a houby]

Won't stop at drones.

Iran seem to be saying that it's all done. From the graun:

Iran’s mission to the UN said in a statement released in the early hours of Sunday that “military action was in response to Israel’s aggression against Iran’s diplomatic premises in Damascus” and that now “the matter can be deemed concluded … Should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran’s response will be more severe.” It also warned the US to not get involved in the conflict.

 

[Ted Bunting]

Don't start your vendetta on this thread please.

What the fuck has it got to do with you?

Edit to add: and you can address my statement or you can leave me well alone with your ‘finding-returnees’ bollocks.

Don’t quote me ever again. I do not know you.

E2A2: Please.

 

[krtek a houby]

What the fuck has it got to do with you you bigoted weirdo?

Don't start Jay/Jo. Take it to pm. Thread has enough vendettas, as I said.

 

[2hats]

There were indeed high altitude interceptions (classic exoatmospheric presentation of expanding shockfront).
View attachment exoi.mp4
View attachment exoi2.mp4
Source.