Hamas/Israel conflict: news and discussion
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teqniq
DisMembered
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Gramsci
Well-Known Member
Thanks for this. Well glad someone else thinks this. And I'm not totally off the wall when saying this.
Kevbad the Bad
Amiable Bowel Syndrome
Not at all. It was the first thing that occurred to me this morning when I heard the news.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
I, for one, cannot imagine why a state that has come close to being overthrown by Palestinian groups within living memory has left them swinging in the wind - I might have to bring my copy of the Ladybird guide to the last 70 years in the Middle East down to understand why that might be...
While I was doing that, I might grab the next in the series, the Ladybird guide to why Israel has an emotional/psychological hold on Europe and the US in a way that the Palestinians don't.
There's a third book I might read - the Ladybird book on why two states that exist between two nuclear armed states aren't wildly keen on them going to war, and who think that the less effective Iran's attack is, the less likely Israel will feel it has to respond...
The Palestinians aren't the only ones looking on with 'the fuck..?', the Ukrainians are in a similar position. It's unfair, but that's where we are - speaking of which, the only serious casualty from last night was a 7yo girl...
While I was doing that, I might grab the next in the series, the Ladybird guide to why Israel has an emotional/psychological hold on Europe and the US in a way that the Palestinians don't.
There's a third book I might read - the Ladybird book on why two states that exist between two nuclear armed states aren't wildly keen on them going to war, and who think that the less effective Iran's attack is, the less likely Israel will feel it has to respond...
The Palestinians aren't the only ones looking on with 'the fuck..?', the Ukrainians are in a similar position. It's unfair, but that's where we are - speaking of which, the only serious casualty from last night was a 7yo girl...
A380
How do I change this 'custom title' thing then?
Nah, it's NATO's fault...
Almost like they knew nothing would happen... vert little damage would be done..
Its a show of sorts. "Don't push us...we are well able for you"
Islamophobia perhaps
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
Apart from the politics of the situation.
I imagine shottong down drones and missiles travelling from Iran to Israel is considerably easier than ones travelling from Israel to Gaza.
tim
EXPLODED TIM! (Help me!!!)
You stand in solidarity with those who are going to be killed, maimed, traumatized, or bereaved.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
Yeah, big thing imv - yesterday's attack was stopped with not a graze on the hand of a single Iranian soldier. Intervening in/over Gaza means killing Israelis, and that's a very big, red line with some - potentially - very unpleasant consequences on the other side of it.
Bargepole job.
I'm not sure how many state actors got to the stage of pondering the logistics of that
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
I'm not sure how many state actors got to the stage of pondering the logistics of that
I think that some - and I don't mean Iran - probably did ask themselves if there was anything they could do without risking war with the most militarily capable state in the te ME, and one that, when the shit hit the fan would probably have the backing of the US - and within 10 seconds they'd have got the answer: nothing.
The local states - Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt - are absolutely flapping because of the anger of their own populations towards Israel and their own governments inaction, but there's nothing they can do - if they could, they would, even if for no more noble purpose than self-preservation.
That Hamas has become an Iranian proxy, and that Gaza is Hamas territory, is unlikely to made anyone more enthusiastic about sticking their toe in such dangerous waters
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
Pretty shit show of force then. Not great PR for their drone export business either.
teqniq
DisMembered
Some more interesting analysis here as to why it would be highly inadvisable for the US to attempt to mount a full-on attack on Iran (not likely to be on the cards in any case as the US have apparently made it clear to the Israelis that any escalation by them and they're on their own:
'Let's spend coffee time playing a little wargame in which the US decides to take on Iran and commit to a full war against it. Look at this map. Where could the US stage an invasion of Iran? To Iran's east, you'll find Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan. A big triple no. To Iran's south: the Persian Gulf which it completely dominates. No good. To Iran's west: Iraq and Turkiye. The first a definite no, the second, a no so probable it must be considered a certain. Turkiye will not go to war with Iran for the US and Israel - a war not only sure to decimate it, but a war Turkich people will be fanatically against. To Iran's north is the Caspian Sea. No use. Azerbaijan and Armenia present an opening, but how will hundreds of thousands of NATO soldiers get there (let alone undetected)? If they go by sea, they will need to traverse the Mediterranean and the Black Sea and virtually physically go through Istanbul. Not only politically complicated, but a long long journey that gives Iran tons of time to prepare. Remember the months and months the US took to amass forces for the Iraq invasion? It took 6 months or so - with no interruptions. The problem is, with Iran, there's no way they're going to simply build up forces near the designated target's borders. Iran has an arsenal of hundreds of thousands of guided and precise ballistic missiles, satellites in space and eyes almost everywhere. If a war is declared or started, every American asset within 0-3000 kilometers of Iran's borders will be bombarded so viciously no missile defense system will be able to stop it. And all those dozens and dozens of American bases scattered throughout the vast area surrounding Iran? How will the US defend them under an attack on a scale of 1000 October 7th's combined? Additionally, Iran has the most sophisticated anti-ship missiles in the world (Russia's Yakhont), of which it probably has thousands by now. This means no surface ship is going to be able to come close enough to Iran to make it an effective striking weapon (is this going to be the first time we get to see an aircraft carrier drowning? I believe potentially yes). The US will have to rely on air superiority, but this is going to prove a very difficult, almost impossible task. US planes will have to fly a long way to get to Iran (and back), and it has invested massively in air defense systems, including some of the most sophisticated in Russia's arsenal. The US will lose many planes which will take years to replenish, and Iran will be able to target with ballistic missiles and drones all the bases from which they take off in Europe or the Middle East. Another tool the US will use is cruise missiles fired from submarines: but this, too, does not win wars, and can be costly against a rival that prepared for this. A full-scale invasion of Iran will require potentially millions of soldiers and will take years. The West is simply incapable of an effort of this kind: where will they find millions of young men willing to die at sea in order to occupy a country thousands of miles away? Today? Give me a break. All this time the Iranians will be defending their home and their independence. The West will be trying to colonize and destroy them. They will have Gaza on their minds. -I didn't mention Israel because it is virtually irrelevant in this war. Hizbullah alone is enough to paralyze it and keep its military busy for months. -Bonus point: think about what happens to energy prices in an actual war with Iran. 500$ for an oil barrel? 1000$? 2000$? All is possible. Guess what country will remain the biggest international producer and exporter of oil and gas, and rip all those extra many, many trillions. You guessed tight. Russia. If the Persian Gulf is up in flames, Russia will become a global economic superpower (at a time when the US is dwindled militarily and economically and cannot even fake a military threat against it). -Another bonus point: you think Iran cannot, or will not attack on American soil? Think again. From cyber attacks to large-scale, professional, military-level sabotage and guerrilla warfare, in a war with Iran life in the US will definitely not be business as usual, and not only because inflation will be something 200%, and thousands of dead soldiers will return home in coffins every month for a long time. -The US cannot win a war against Iran. And I believe all parties involved know it. The only thing that remains unknown is how insane and self-destructive the US has become under Netanyahu's and AIPAC's, how shall we call it, influence'
source
'Let's spend coffee time playing a little wargame in which the US decides to take on Iran and commit to a full war against it. Look at this map. Where could the US stage an invasion of Iran? To Iran's east, you'll find Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan. A big triple no. To Iran's south: the Persian Gulf which it completely dominates. No good. To Iran's west: Iraq and Turkiye. The first a definite no, the second, a no so probable it must be considered a certain. Turkiye will not go to war with Iran for the US and Israel - a war not only sure to decimate it, but a war Turkich people will be fanatically against. To Iran's north is the Caspian Sea. No use. Azerbaijan and Armenia present an opening, but how will hundreds of thousands of NATO soldiers get there (let alone undetected)? If they go by sea, they will need to traverse the Mediterranean and the Black Sea and virtually physically go through Istanbul. Not only politically complicated, but a long long journey that gives Iran tons of time to prepare. Remember the months and months the US took to amass forces for the Iraq invasion? It took 6 months or so - with no interruptions. The problem is, with Iran, there's no way they're going to simply build up forces near the designated target's borders. Iran has an arsenal of hundreds of thousands of guided and precise ballistic missiles, satellites in space and eyes almost everywhere. If a war is declared or started, every American asset within 0-3000 kilometers of Iran's borders will be bombarded so viciously no missile defense system will be able to stop it. And all those dozens and dozens of American bases scattered throughout the vast area surrounding Iran? How will the US defend them under an attack on a scale of 1000 October 7th's combined? Additionally, Iran has the most sophisticated anti-ship missiles in the world (Russia's Yakhont), of which it probably has thousands by now. This means no surface ship is going to be able to come close enough to Iran to make it an effective striking weapon (is this going to be the first time we get to see an aircraft carrier drowning? I believe potentially yes). The US will have to rely on air superiority, but this is going to prove a very difficult, almost impossible task. US planes will have to fly a long way to get to Iran (and back), and it has invested massively in air defense systems, including some of the most sophisticated in Russia's arsenal. The US will lose many planes which will take years to replenish, and Iran will be able to target with ballistic missiles and drones all the bases from which they take off in Europe or the Middle East. Another tool the US will use is cruise missiles fired from submarines: but this, too, does not win wars, and can be costly against a rival that prepared for this. A full-scale invasion of Iran will require potentially millions of soldiers and will take years. The West is simply incapable of an effort of this kind: where will they find millions of young men willing to die at sea in order to occupy a country thousands of miles away? Today? Give me a break. All this time the Iranians will be defending their home and their independence. The West will be trying to colonize and destroy them. They will have Gaza on their minds. -I didn't mention Israel because it is virtually irrelevant in this war. Hizbullah alone is enough to paralyze it and keep its military busy for months. -Bonus point: think about what happens to energy prices in an actual war with Iran. 500$ for an oil barrel? 1000$? 2000$? All is possible. Guess what country will remain the biggest international producer and exporter of oil and gas, and rip all those extra many, many trillions. You guessed tight. Russia. If the Persian Gulf is up in flames, Russia will become a global economic superpower (at a time when the US is dwindled militarily and economically and cannot even fake a military threat against it). -Another bonus point: you think Iran cannot, or will not attack on American soil? Think again. From cyber attacks to large-scale, professional, military-level sabotage and guerrilla warfare, in a war with Iran life in the US will definitely not be business as usual, and not only because inflation will be something 200%, and thousands of dead soldiers will return home in coffins every month for a long time. -The US cannot win a war against Iran. And I believe all parties involved know it. The only thing that remains unknown is how insane and self-destructive the US has become under Netanyahu's and AIPAC's, how shall we call it, influence'
source
barlimo
Well-Known Member
They daren't do too much particularly with an enemy that possesses nuclear weapons.
PTK
Paul Kegan
IDF has bombed Lebanon
www.jpost.com
IDF jets strike in the Beqaa Valley deep in Lebanon
Israeli air force jets struck a Hezbollah weapon manufacturing site in the area of Nabi Chit, in the Beqaa val
www.jpost.com
gosub
~#
Apart from make a substantial test of air defenses
gosub
~#
FfsIDF has bombed Lebanon
IDF jets strike in the Beqaa Valley deep in Lebanon
Israeli air force jets struck a Hezbollah weapon manufacturing site in the area of Nabi Chit, in the Beqaa val
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
Hezbollah was lobbing rockets at Israeli air defence radars and SAM sites last night - no surprise that the Israeli's have replied - and, obvs, that Hezbollah is an Iranian proxy, so it's a target for two reasons.
What matters is how they respond to Iran - Netenyahus' political interest is served by massive/significant retaliation, Israel's (imv) is best served by doing nothing.
gosub
~#
Beeb had it otherwise earlier..should have looked harder ,
They'll respond to Iran by pivoting out of Gaza now it's flattened and going after the other proxy Iranians Hezbollah
Gramsci
Well-Known Member
What all this leaves out is that the underlying problem is the ongoing occupation by Israel of West Bank and Gaza.
Plus the fact that Israel was built by removing Palestinians form their land or taking it over since 48. And Palestinians haven't gone away. Nor have they been completely defeated by Israel. Resistance takes many forms ( violent and non violent) and they still are resisting.
Hamas are not purely Iranian proxies either.
Plus the fact that Israel was built by removing Palestinians form their land or taking it over since 48. And Palestinians haven't gone away. Nor have they been completely defeated by Israel. Resistance takes many forms ( violent and non violent) and they still are resisting.
Hamas are not purely Iranian proxies either.
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tim
EXPLODED TIM! (Help me!!!)
They're always bombing Lebanon.IDF has bombed Lebanon
IDF jets strike in the Beqaa Valley deep in Lebanon
Israeli air force jets struck a Hezbollah weapon manufacturing site in the area of Nabi Chit, in the Beqaa val
tim
EXPLODED TIM! (Help me!!!)
At least the original had paragraphs. The last sentence is how shall we call it Jewish Conspiracy stuff mildly coded:
"The only thing that remains unknown is how insane and self-destructive the US has become under Netanyahu's and AIPAC's, how shall we call it, influence'."
teqniq
DisMembered
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