Hamas/Israel conflict: news and discussion

[A380]

Seems odd - this stuff only really works when it's by surprise. If Hezbollah aren't going to join in in the north, then what Hamas mean is 'we hope the attacks spread into the West Bank' - because if they don't (they will, but whether on anything like the scale, complexity and effect of the Hamas attacks is an answer I don't know..) then Hamas in the Gaza strip are going to get the full and undivided attention of the Israeli's, which I assume they'd rather not have.

Many Hyenas can take down a lion. One? Not so much.

Without going all 4 dimensional chess, could this be ‘good’ for Fatah as it’s fairly likely that if Hamas end up facing most of Israel’s forces alone in the Gaza Strip they are going to be effectively wiped out for a generation. This would leave Fatah in the West Bank as the de facto sole Palestinian government.

(Or in pub fight parlance, you go and punch the coppers Dave, I’ll be right behind you, and definitely won’t leave you to a shoeing whilst I go home with your girlfriend…)

Poor fuckers on the ground tonight though. It’s going yo be bloody.

 

[Bingoman]

Hamas are claiming to be engaged in fighting across 25 locations in Israel?

 

[frogwoman]

This is insane.

 

[kebabking]

Hamas are claiming to be engaged in fighting across 25 locations in Israel?

I think the Israelis are saying 22, but it makes no difference, not least because it looks like fucking chaos.

It's a very large scale, multiple front attack using infantry, air and indirect fires. Israeli towns under effective (if short lived) control by enemy forces isn't something that's happened since 1973, or perhaps even 1948.

I know BN is the ultimate survivor, regardless of his endless failures, but I'll be surprised if he's still either PM, or a serious contender for PM, in a year.

 

[Idris2002]

Without going all 4 dimensional chess, could this be ‘good’ for Fatah as it’s fairly likely that if Hamas end up facing most of Israel’s forces alone in the Gaza Strip they are going to be effectively wiped out for a generation. This would leave Fatah in the West Bank as the de facto sole Palestinian government.

(Or in pub fight parlance, you go and punch the coppers Dave, I’ll be right behind you, and definitely won’t leave you to a shoeing whilst I go home with your girlfriend…)

Poor fuckers on the ground tonight though. It’s going yo be bloody.

Yeah, but once Hamas have been dealt with, and plenty of collateral damaged, Israel's not going to stop there.

 

[Bingoman]

Sky news are now reporting that the Un Security council will meet tomorrow to discuss the event in Israel and and Gaza?

 

[A380]

Yeah, but once Hamas have been dealt with, and plenty of collateral damaged, Israel's not going to stop there.

Probably, it’s not my plan.

 

[Idris2002]

Sky news are now reporting that the Un Security council will meet tomorrow to discuss the event in Israel and and Gaza?

 

[MickiQ]

Sky news are now reporting that the Un Security council will meet tomorrow to discuss the event in Israel and and Gaza?

Yeah well but realistically they have no more control over how events unfold than the people posting on this thread.

I think the Israelis are saying 22, but it makes no difference, not least because it looks like fucking chaos.

It's a very large scale, multiple front attack using infantry, air and indirect fires. Israeli towns under effective (if short lived) control by enemy forces isn't something that's happened since 1973, or perhaps even 1948.

I know BN is the ultimate survivor, regardless of his endless failures, but I'll be surprised if he's still either PM, or a serious contender for PM, in a year.

With a bit of luck someone will shoot the fucker and blame it on Hamas, no-one person is to blame for the situation in the Middle East but he definitely carries a generous share of the blame.

 

[Pickman's model]

Fifty years ago, the intelligence fuckup over the 1973 war started the process in Israel that ended with the rise of Likud and Begin, and ultimately, the rise of Bibi.

This is likely to be the same kind of event, with similar results. And a year from now, it'll be "Bibi come home, all is forgiven".

But will he return from his jail cell?

 

[Idris2002]

But will he return from his jail cell?

Yes, while dressed as Eva Peron.

 

[Pickman's model]

Yes, while dressed as Eva Peron.

Don't cry for me marge and tina

 

[Idris2002]

Don't cry for me marge and tina

The truth is I never bombed you

 

[StoneRoad]

This is an absolutely dreadful situation, the number of casualties is going to skyrocket the longer these two sides are allowed to pummel each other.
But the $64 million question - how does the background problem get solved ???
It needs the wisdom of Solomon.

 

[Idris2002]

Anyway, rte news just said it looks like 100 casualties on the Israeli side, with double that figure of Pals already dead in retaliation attacks in the strip.

 

[Bingoman]

Sky news now report that 150 rockets fired at Tel Aviv

 

[Aladdin]

Did Israeli intelligence not have any warning this was going to happen, because normally intelligence and agencies have tip off?

And Israeli intelligence is excellent ..usually.
It has been described as a highly organised attack .. on land sea and air. It's baffling that Israeli intelligence didn't have any info.

 

[likesfish]

Israel is going to piuck up it's last remaining copy of the Geneva convention and sling it in the bin and go NEVER AGAIN.
HAMAS are unlikely to survive regardless of how many palestenian civillians are going to die.
The Idea that the IDF are going to show restraint because Hamas claim to have hostages is bullshit they have killed over a 100 Israelis and injured over a 1000 this is a 9/11 scale attack Israel's population is under 10 million. Hamas are unlikely to survive the retaliation but they will take loads of Innocents with them

 

[tim]

Israel is going to piuck up it's last remaining copy of the Geneva convention and sling it in the bin and go NEVER AGAIN.
HAMAS are unlikely to survive regardless of how many palestenian civillians are going to die.
The Idea that the IDF are going to show restraint because Hamas claim to have hostages is bullshit they have killed over a 100 Israelis and injured over a 1000 this is a 9/11 scale attack Israel's population is under 10 million. Hamas are unlikely to survive the retaliation but they will take loads of Innocents with them

Oh do fuck off with all the overwrought hysteria.

 

[platinumsage]

It's baffling that Israeli intelligence didn't have any info.

Didn’t have any info that they acted on effectively, at any rate.

 

[teqniq]

And Israeli intelligence is excellent ..usually.
It has been described as a highly organised attack .. on land sea and air. It's baffling that Israeli intelligence didn't have any info.

There's a lot of talk on Twitter about the intelligence failure, this comment below is instructive:

 

[kebabking]

Israel is going to piuck up it's last remaining copy of the Geneva convention and sling it in the bin and go NEVER AGAIN....

You might think so, but even today the Israeli Air Force were 'knocking' buildings they were going to bomb.

I don't doubt there'll be some pretty grim images in the next few weeks, but I'd caution against simplistic thinking.

 

[kebabking]

If you're interested in the ups and downs of Israeli intelligence, have a looks at Rise and Kill First by Ronen Bergman.

Neither the Mossad, nor the Shin Bet, nor Aman have passed up opportunities to completely miss huge issues on their doorstep - the Iranian nuclear program, the '73 war, the first Interfada, and many others. They can be spectacular, they can also be blind as a bat.

 

[cesare]

Luckily (!) It's a bit too close to home for Israel to go for retaliatory nuclear strikes but I expect they'll be setting the scene for the US to back them up. This is going to get dire, isn't it.

 

[likesfish]

You might think so, but even today the Israeli Air Force were 'knocking' buildings they were going to bomb.

I don't doubt there'll be some pretty grim images in the next few weeks, but I'd caution against simplistic thinking.

won't really make much difference the IDF do make an attempt to limit coallaterial damage they make more attempt than any other military. but Gaza is densely populated and Hamas are not going to make any attempt to avoid using human Shields so Operation Cast Lead | IMEU
around one civillian for every militant is going to be killed

 

[MickiQ]

The only people with any influence on the Israeli's are the Yanks who broadly support them but their support isn't unconditional. Biden (the man who will decide) is going to want to balance support for Israel with trying to stay on good terms with other important allies whose support he needs to deal with issues like Ukraine and China.
Speaking from a position of absolutely no expertise whatsoever I reckon he will give the Israeli's about three weeks to give Hamas enough of a kicking to try and deter them from trying anything like this for a while (it won't deter them forever).
If you're dropping bombs from a thousand feet up onto the one of the most densely populated areas on Earth you are going to kill a lot of people who aren't necessarily your actual targets.
Hamas doesn't care about Palestinian civilian casualities anymore than it does Israeli ones anyway.

This is an absolutely dreadful situation, the number of casualties is going to skyrocket the longer these two sides are allowed to pummel each other.
But the $64 million question - how does the background problem get solved ???
It needs the wisdom of Solomon.

Tragically I don't think it can ever be solved bar one side actually exterminating the other. Neither side will accept a peace deal that would be acceptable to the other.

 

[donkyboy]

"Israel has a right to defend itself". This phrase always comes out the woodworks at times like this.

But you never hear "Palestinians have the right (to try) to end the occupation".

 

[dilute micro]

The only people with any influence on the Israeli's are the Yanks who broadly support them but their support isn't unconditional. Biden (the man who will decide) is going to want to balance support for Israel with trying to stay on good terms with other important allies whose support he needs to deal with issues like Ukraine and China.
Speaking from a position of absolutely no expertise whatsoever I reckon he will give the Israeli's about three weeks to give Hamas enough of a kicking to try and deter them from trying anything like this for a while (it won't deter them forever).
If you're dropping bombs from a thousand feet up onto the one of the most densely populated areas on Earth you are going to kill a lot of people who aren't necessarily your actual targets.
Hamas doesn't care about Palestinian civilian casualities anymore than it does Israeli ones anyway.

Tragically I don't think it can ever be solved bar one side actually exterminating the other. Neither side will accept a peace deal that would be acceptable to the other.

I'm thinking token response from the US for the same reasons you gave.

 

[kebabking]

It'll also be interesting to see to what degree the Israelis and Ukrainians cooperate against their common enemy - Iran.

Israel has been treading a fine, and somewhat all over the place, line over Ukraine. I wonder to what degree that changes, and whether that's dependant of when/if Bibi gets the boot.

 

[T & P]

And Israeli intelligence is excellent ..usually.
It has been described as a highly organised attack .. on land sea and air. It's baffling that Israeli intelligence didn't have any info.

Already being billed as one of the greatest intelligence failures of all time and rightly so. More so when you consider the level of sophisticated surveillance targeting all aspects of Palestinian society and deeply infiltrated informant network Israel has long had at their disposal.

Details are still sketchy, but from what has transpired so far, from the initial failure to find out about the plans, to the utterly chaotic (lack of) response to the attack and complete loss of control of supposedly one of the most fortified borders in the world, including heavily armed motor gliders flying over the fence, tanks and their crews captured, and even at least one IDF base taken over by Hamas fighters, with the Israeli government admitting ‘communications gave been cut off and we don’t know what’s going on down there’, this is one of the biggest fuck ups in living memory.