Hamas/Israel conflict: news and discussion

[Pickman's model]

Re: Intelligence failure I think it can be reasonably argued that Israeli society up until this point had become seriously divided over the constitutional reforms that Netenyahu and his far-right friends wished to push though. So much so that Netenhahu was heard to accuse members of the military as being compromised by the left. Netenhayu's personal motive for the reform is to protect himself from corruption charges. in any event this may well have led a combination of the leadership being unwilling to listen to the military and the military themselves taking their eye off the ball.

this article provides some useful background:

Netanyahu’s Legal Crusade Is Sparking a Military Backlash in Israel

Top generals worry about the fate of liberal democracy—and that the country’s enemies see mass refusal among reservists as an opportunity to strike.

foreignpolicy.com

And this current article agues that Netenyahu is completely unsuitable to be in charge right now:

In the midst of war, Benjamin Netanyahu is a liability who can only make things worse. He must go | Simon Tisdall

The so-called international community must also make up for its years of neglect of Israel-Palestine, says foreign affairs commentator Simon Tisdall

www.theguardian.com

but we're not talking about the military. shin bet is not military intelligence. and presumably there are hundreds if not thousands of israeli intelligence collectors and analysts in a range of services tasked with monitoring hamas and the wider gaza strip, not to mention mossad looking at iran and lebanon among other places. for my money this was all collected but for a range of reasons - hamas operational security, a hamas deception operation involving a suggestion that this was something to do with the west bank rather than an invasion of israel, a failure to join the dots on collected information or whatever - nothing was done about it. the mail today says the zionists won't comment on the hamas videos until the war is over. but by that time i rather think larger events could crush that out of that news. but it's not just israeli intelligence. surely if mi6 or gchq or the nsa or cia had got wind of it through human sources or signal intelligence they'd have passed it on. as indeed the egyptians appear to have done.

 

[Larry O'Hara]

Israel’s response to this terror must be resolute. But it must remain consistent with international law | Margaret Hodge

I went to Kfar Aza kibbutz when it was an oasis of tranquillity. We stand with Israel as it defends itself, and hope for peace, says Labour MP Margaret Hodge

www.theguardian.com

This is what I don't get. Mention of the security fence, but absolutely no curiosity around as to what life might be like for those on the other side of it.

Do you real expect a lower life form like Hodge to care about Palestinians?

 

[planetgeli]

Some prime real estate, yesterday.



More than 1,300 buildings in the Gaza Strip have been destroyed during Israel's near week-long bombardment, the United Nations says.

The UN's humanitarian agency OCHA said "5,540 housing units" in those buildings were destroyed and nearly 3,750 more homes were so badly damaged they are uninhabitable.

350 Palestinians died in the last 24 hours with over 1000 injured.

 

[PursuedByBears]

Do you real expect a lower life form like Hodge to care about Palestinians?

"Lower life form", nice.

 

[planetgeli]

Crispin Blunt: interesting, former forces I believe

I don't know why but he has always spoken up for the Palestinians (I read, reported).

He's also not standing at the next election.

 

[LDC]

Whatever happens next is the acquisition of some prime real beachside real estate which they've been after for generations. I don't know. Doesn't feel right.

So whatever happens, even a war and then IDF withdrawal, or long term military occupation? How does that work then with the beach huts plan? Time share with the Palestinians?

Prime real estate? You think there's some Israeli conspiracy to allow this to happen so they can invade and ethnically cleanse all of Gaza for some 20 miles or so of the beach?

And yes, you don't know.

How do you managed to squeeze so much bollocks into such a short space is pretty impressive!

Just come out and say it was the Jews behind it all again why don't you?

 

[teqniq]

but we're not talking about the military. shin bet is not military intelligence. and presumably there are hundreds if not thousands of israeli intelligence collectors and analysts in a range of services tasked with monitoring hamas and the wider gaza strip, not to mention mossad looking at iran and lebanon among other places. for my money this was all collected but for a range of reasons - hamas operational security, a hamas deception operation involving a suggestion that this was something to do with the west bank rather than an invasion of israel, a failure to join the dots on collected information or whatever - nothing was done about it. the mail today says the zionists won't comment on the hamas videos until the war is over. but by that time i rather think larger events could crush that out of that news. but it's not just israeli intelligence. surely if mi6 or gchq or the nsa or cia had got wind of it through human sources or signal intelligence they'd have passed it on. as indeed the egyptians appear to have done.

I agree. It will likely turn out be a combination of a whole lot of things. I was attempting to describe a couple of aspects that I feel contributed towards this.

 

[Pickman's model]

"Lower life form", nice.

this is margaret hodge, the paedos' friend, we're talking about

 

[A380]

99.9 % of the time it;s a cock up. Despite what they would have the world believe (and sadly what many on the left seem to sign up to bizarrely) the Israeli intelligence services or military aren't composed of super heroes. Just normal people who fuck up.

Bit like the CIA or GCHQ or any other organisation composed of people. It's a volume thing isn't it? Unlike in cop or spy programmes on the telly where there are only six characters and two story lines which turn out to intersect in the last episode. In the real world there are always a million moving parts of which 98% are not relevant. The trick is knowing the 2% that is before it's needed not afterwards. Apparently.

 

[teqniq]

What the fuck:

 

[dilute micro]

99.9 % of the time it;s a cock up. Despite what they would have the world believe (and sadly what many on the left seem to sign up to bizarrely) the Israeli intelligence services or military aren't composed of super heroes. Just normal people who fuck up.

Bit like the CIA or GCHQ or any other organisation composed of people. It's a volume thing isn't it? Unlike in cop or spy programmes on the telly where there are only six characters and two story lines which turn out to intersect in the last episode. In the real world there are always a million moving parts of which 98% are not relevant. The trick is knowing the 2% that is before it's needed not afterwards. Apparently.

Yes, a failure to spot the failure.

 

[Larry O'Hara]

"Lower life form", nice.

She isn’t: but I do apologise to any amoebas reading this.

 

[emanymton]

99.9 % of the time it;s a cock up. Despite what they would have the world believe (and sadly what many on the left seem to sign up to bizarrely) the Israeli intelligence services or military aren't composed of super heroes. Just normal people who fuck up.

Bit like the CIA or GCHQ or any other organisation composed of people. It's a volume thing isn't it? Unlike in cop or spy programmes on the telly where there are only six characters and two story lines which turn out to intersect in the last episode. In the real worls there are always a million moving parts of which 98% are not relevant. The trick is lknowing the 2% that is before it's needed not afterwards. Apparently.

I don't know how hamas planned this obviously but Israel seems to have relied on hi-tech methods. Which are probably pretty easy to beat by going low-tech. Israel can intercept phone calls. So just use old fashioned techniques like writing things down and using dead drops. Speaking in inclosed spaces where you cannot be observed. Keeping information compartmentalised so only a few people how the whole picture of what is planned. I've even seen it suggested they deliberately feed false information on intercepted phone calls.

 

[TopCat]

"Lower life form", nice.

…

 

[TopCat]

What the fuck:

View attachment 395358

Evil

 

[TopCat]

Well I haven’t been on a March in a long time but today must be done. Maybe see a few of you there.

 

[platinumsage]

What the fuck:

View attachment 395358

Authorities have acknowledged the electricity was cut off, supposedly to stop prisoners using smuggled phoned to co-ordinate attacks, which seems fair enough, as plenty of prisoners around the world don't have access to electricity 24/7.

The water being cut off is a different matter obviously and is based on reports Adalah have received and hasn't been confirmed by Israeli authorities at the moment.

 

[Karl Masks]

Dan Hodges on "x" making some vile comments...

View attachment 395323
View attachment 395324

View attachment 395325

Subhuman he is.

If you are ok with the slaughter of Palestinian civilians then you have no moral ground to object to Hamas. All that's left is racism. You have replaced the identity of those people, as separate moral agents and living human beings, with something less. THey are invisible to you. Dan is a psychopath.

 

[The39thStep]

I'd caution against conspiracy theories, but even this CNN report is along the lines of 'what the fuck?'. At best Israeli intelligence seems significantly less competent than a 35 year old in his mom's basement with a Doge avatar and several bits of fella merch.



Always remembering that this is presumably the same intelligence service that is currently identifying exactly which buildings contain militants, with a few days notice, in the middle of a forced population displacement.

 

[Pickman's model]

I agree. It will likely turn out be a combination of a whole lot of things. I was attempting to describe a couple of aspects that I feel contributed towards this.

i agree that a lot of people have been talking about and indeed acting against the plans to protect netanyahu. but a) the planning for the hamas action will have started well before that, it's not just going to have been over the past six months; b) people go to work to do their job. someone whose work remit was, say, gaza won't have been suddenly spending all day at work looking at other stuff; c) sure, there will have been people at senior levels who may have been preoccupied with saving netanyahu, or opposing his machinations. but i would have thought that finding out about a planned raid on israel would have been just what the doctor ordered for netanyahu and his circle - suddenly an opportunity to change the narrative and perhaps say 'while you're all opposing me our enemies are working against us - we can't let our guard down, you're doing hamas' dirty work, you're either with me or against me'.

it's more likely that complacency and confidence in the barriers around gaza and the surveillance technologies along with hamas' deception by running the training events as a routine with nothing happening lulled the zionists into a false sense of security

 

[LDC]

Really feel all the use of 'psychopath', 'subhuman', 'lowest life form' etc is politically shit and not OK at all.

 

[mojo pixy]

Well I haven’t been on a March in a long time but today must be done. Maybe see a few of you there.

I'd be there if I wasn't 200 miles away in Devon and my son wasn't having a friend over this weekend, it's been arranged for ages.

Keep safe, anyone who goes.

 

[tony.c]

I haven't read the entire thread so I don't know if this has already been posted.

Scores killed in Israeli air strikes on families fleeing northern Gaza

Israeli air strikes have targeted convoys of people fleeing northern Gaza after Israel issued an order for people to leave their homes

www.middleeasteye.net

 

[tony.c]

Well I haven’t been on a March in a long time but today must be done. Maybe see a few of you there.

 

[Rimbaud]

I'd caution against conspiracy theories, but even this CNN report is along the lines of 'what the fuck?'. At best Israeli intelligence seems significantly less competent than a 35 year old in his mom's basement with a Doge avatar and several bits of fella merch.



Always remembering that this is presumably the same intelligence service that is currently identifying exactly which buildings contain militants, with a few days notice, in the middle of a forced population displacement.

IMO intelligence failure is plausible due to complacency and making assumptions, but you're right on point in saying that if their intelligence couldn't predict this how could it predict which buildings have militants in?

 

[deeyo]

What the fuck:

View attachment 395358

at least electricity down, according to multiple sources including isreaeli press.

Israel cuts off electricity, water supplies to over 5,000 Palestinian detainees in Israeli jails

Israel has cut off electricity and water for Palestinian detainees in Israeli prisons, in an apparent step to prevent them from aiding the conflict between occupation forces and Palestinian resistance...

www.middleeastmonitor.com

Prison authority cuts off electricity for jailed terrorists

www.ynetnews.com

palestinian prisoners club/society says water to the cells been cut as well:

Israel intensifies crack down on Palestinian prisoners

Israeli increasing restrictions on Palestinian prisoners contributed to the rising tensions between Israel and Palestinians in the months before the Hamas-led 7 October attack on Israeli towns and military bases along Gaza's surroundings.

www.newarab.com

background on palestinian prisoners from al jazeera:

Why are so many Palestinian prisoners in Israeli jails?

One in five Palestinians spends time in Israel jails. Hamas says it wants to exchange captured Israelis for them.

www.aljazeera.com

& link to another support group, addameer 'conscience'

| Addameer

www.addameer.org

 

[agricola]

i agree that a lot of people have been talking about and indeed acting against the plans to protect netanyahu. but a) the planning for the hamas action will have started well before that, it's not just going to have been over the past six months; b) people go to work to do their job. someone whose work remit was, say, gaza won't have been suddenly spending all day at work looking at other stuff; c) sure, there will have been people at senior levels who may have been preoccupied with saving netanyahu, or opposing his machinations. but i would have thought that finding out about a planned raid on israel would have been just what the doctor ordered for netanyahu and his circle - suddenly an opportunity to change the narrative and perhaps say 'while you're all opposing me our enemies are working against us - we can't let our guard down, you're doing hamas' dirty work, you're either with me or against me'.

it's more likely that complacency and confidence in the barriers around gaza and the surveillance technologies along with hamas' deception by running the training events as a routine with nothing happening lulled the zionists into a false sense of security

I really do wonder about this - yes, its possible for intelligence to be missed or misinterpreted but it is rarely just one piece of information that comes in and any intelligence, has to be viewed in the context of wider events and the known capabilities of the thing they are concerned about.

In that respect given what they know about Hamas and what they were capable of, and what they knew was happening in the West Bank and Jerusalem, how was that area not on the highest level of alert? This is not as if terrorists came in from Jordan or somewhere quiescent, or landed on an airliner at Ben Gurion and took everyone completely by surprise - they came from the most militarized part of the territories that Israel has occupied and the one that has caused the most trouble for the occupier, a few days after the incident at al-Aqsa and with tensions boiling in the West Bank. Even if they had absolute confidence in the barrier you'd have expected it to be fully manned, with the rear positions on some sort of alert and with reserves nearby to assist.

Also it does worry me profoundly that your point about what the doctor might have ordered for Netanyahu and his circle (in terms of the political benefits of discovering a big raid in plan) seems pretty much to have happened after a big raid actually occurred. How much of Israeli society would have accepted this sort of thing without the attack happening?

 

[tim]

Hamas have released a video showing sophisticated training involving paragliders, hog tying hostages, using RPGs on walls etc etc. Even mocked up kibbutzes which they raided. All within hundreds of metres of Israel. And their mighty intelligence services knew nothing about this? Something's not right.

CONSPIRALOON ALERT!
CONSPIRALOON ALERT!

 

[kebabking]

I really do wonder about this - yes, its possible for intelligence to be missed or misinterpreted but it is rarely just one piece of information that comes in and any intelligence, has to be viewed in the context of wider events and the known capabilities of the thing they are concerned about.

In that respect given what they know about Hamas and what they were capable of, and what they knew was happening in the West Bank and Jerusalem, how was that area not on the highest level of alert? This is not as if terrorists came in from Jordan or somewhere quiescent, or landed on an airliner at Ben Gurion and took everyone completely by surprise - they came from the most militarized part of the territories that Israel has occupied and the one that has caused the most trouble for the occupier, a few days after the incident at al-Aqsa and with tensions boiling in the West Bank. Even if they had absolute confidence in the barrier you'd have expected it to be fully manned, with the rear positions on some sort of alert and with reserves nearby to assist....

It's simple - Israel decided that Gaza was going to say quiet, because they wanted Gaza to stay quiet - because they wanted to divert resources to the West Bank, and secondly because Hamas had got the measure or Israeli int gathering and fed it what it wanted to hear.

The first bit was by far the most important: Israel had decided that Hamas didn't want to go to war, so anything it saw in Gaza was not Hamas preparing for war.

For anyone with an interest in history, if you change the words Israel, Gaza, West Bank ,and Hamas to the UK, Falkland Islands, Europe and Argentina, you get an exact replica of what happened in 1980-1982...

 

[Ax^]

Tm
CONSPIRALOON ALERT!
CONSPIRALOON ALERT!

hmm did you mean to link me in your conspiraloon alert post

don't think the idea of the Israeli army turning the north of gaza strip into a buffer zone for security reasons is that out landish