UK gas/electricity supply shortages this winter

[elbows]

They are doing another Demand Flexibility Service test period tomorrow, but at a different time, 9am-10am.

 

[elbows]

Tight margins on Monday by the sounds of it. I've not looked into the details for myself yet. Demand Flexibility Service period due for 5pm-6pm Monday.

People will be paid to use less electricity on Monday

Some households who cut peak-time electricity use on Monday will get discounts on their bills.

www.bbc.co.uk

Three UK coal plants have been ordered to begin warming up in case they are needed as the cold snap continues.

National Grid ESO said it had asked power station operator Drax to prepare two coal-fired units and EDF to warm up its West Burton plant.

A scheme that offers discounts for households who cut peak-time energy use is also set to be triggered.

National Grid ESO said the measures were "precautionary" and it did not mean electricity supplies were at risk.

The company said that it expected electricity supply margins to be "tighter than normal" on Monday evening.

However, it added that "people should not be worried" by the measures.

"These are precautionary measures to maintain the buffer of spare capacity we need," it said.

The cold weather means demand for energy rises as more people heat their homes, but a lack of wind has reduced the amount of renewable energy available.

 

[elbows]

Tomorrows Demand Flexibility Service is labelled as a live one, rather than a test event. I think this is the first live one they've done, as the only other time they nearly did one they eventually decided against it. All the others have been test ones that count towards the 12 they promised they would do over winter.

As far as final consumers are concerned there isnt really any difference between test and live as far as I know, but as far as the grid and their balancing act goes, going for this live one is an indication that they really need the reduction in use to help maintain margins during that period.

 

[elbows]

Since I originally linked to it, the BBC changed the focus of that article to be more about the Demand Flexibility Service event. The previous headline was focussed on the coal power stations warming up.

People will be paid to use less electricity on Monday

Some households who cut peak-time electricity use on Monday will get discounts on their bills.

www.bbc.co.uk

A scheme that offers discounts on bills for households who cut peak-time electricity use will be triggered on Monday as the UK's cold snap continues.

National Grid ESO said it would activate the scheme, which has only been used in tests until now, between 17:00 and 18:00 GMT.

 

[elbows]

As usual the normal mechanisms have kicked in to change the picture and what is forecast for the tightest period, with much more wiggle room now shown. eg yesterdays forecast had the buffer falling to under 700MW for the tightest period today, but later forecasts now show a much more reasonable buffer of over 4GW during that period.

 

[elbows]

The BBC obvious take their 'responsibilities' seriously when there is a real live Demand Flexibility Service requirement in effect, as opposed to one of the test one. Because they are running a live updates page for this one, which will draw extra attention to this attempt to save power:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-64374308

Meanwhile another live one has been ordered for tomorrow, lasting longer than previous ones too, 4.30pm to 6pm Tuesday. I think this afternoon they instructed DRAX 6 to fire up as well, although the earliest sync time is listed as 24/01/2023 04:25.

I keep an eye on these messages via System Warnings | BMRS

 

[cupid_stunt]

I've not had an invite from OVO to get involved, but I've unplugged the fridge-freezer for the hour in support, however that only uses 25w per hour on average, my use this hour will now be down to just 65w, so I don't think my effort is going to help TBH, which is probably why I didn't get an invite.

 

[elbows]

I've not had an invite from OVO to get involved, but I've unplugged the fridge-freezer for the hour in support, however that only uses 25w per hour on average, my use this hour will now be down to just 65w, so I don't think my effort is going to help TBH, which is probably why I didn't get an invite.

Ah yes, I see theirs was by invitation only, and it sounds like they would have been in touch months ago if you fulfilled their desired criteria.

This scheme certainly gave all these companies marketing departments something to do in the coming up with their own brand names department. OVO called theirs 'Power Move'.

Power Move launch – OVO Energy

We’re launching Power Move – helping our customers reduce demand on the energy grid and save up to £100 each this winter

www.ovoenergy.com

Meanwhile many of the retweets involving Ocotpus's version, 'Saving Sessions', implies that many people havent really paid attention to quite how little electricity modern lighting can consume. Sitting in the dark or candlelight seems rather popular for those who want to make a big show of how they are doing their bit. Not that I want to knock peoples efforts or the novelty value that turning the lights off can have for families with young kids.

https://twitter.com/hashtag/SavingSessions

 

[elbows]

A few contrasting quotes from the BBC live updates page I mentioned earlier.

We're just over halfway through today's energy-saving hour. "No issues so far," Bob tells me, adding he and his wife have simply "turned off" the appliances they aren't using.

"I guess it all helps - even all those normally on standby must make a small saving," he says.

Referring to his remarks earlier - that savings are small in these sessions - he says he's now realised that tonight, for every unit of electricity saved they "get paid for 10 more".

"So that’s worth having," Bob adds.

Suzanne Murray, an NHS administrator from Southampton, says she will be taking part in the scheme with E.ON today although she doesn't know why they bother as "there is no discount on bills to be gained."

She says: "E.ON have told me that if I hit my target of 20% reduction... I could earn around 5p.

"That's not worth it! I feel like turning all the lights on in the house, the whole lot, and just burning power!

"Seriously, it makes no sense."

She says she switches off all devices on standby daily, and regularly participates in these energy-saving schemes, but adds if firms could take off around £20 extra from a monthly bill, it might be worth it for larger families.

I note via something else they posted that the British Gas version is called 'Peak Save'.

 

[elbows]

Its possible that the E.ON version is especially stingy, leading to the above complaint, I cant tell without being a customer on the scheme myself and seeing what amounts of electricity saving are involved. Certainly there are tweets from various people asking E.ON why they only get 75p or 15p or 9p to go with Suzannes remark about 5p.

 

[elbows]

After telling Drax unit 5 to fire up earlier, they've since asked Drax 5 and West Burton 2 to do the same. All of them coal.

After I reported that we got all of our nuclear capacity back a while ago, this month there have been issues that reduced generation from that source a bit again. A couple went down for maintenance and one went down for refuelling. Some, but not all, are since back again.

 

[platinumsage]

After telling Drax unit 5 to fire up earlier, they've since asked Drax 5 and West Burton 2 to do the same. All of them coal.

They were only warmed up as far as I know, which involves burning oil to get them ready to generate with coal should it be necessary. I can't see that any of them did any actual coal generation yesterday.

 

[kalmatthew]

Its possible that the E.ON version is especially stingy, leading to the above complaint, I cant tell without being a customer on the scheme myself and seeing what amounts of electricity saving are involved. Certainly there are tweets from various people asking E.ON why they only get 75p or 15p or 9p to go with Suzannes remark about 5p.

I'm on octopuses saving sessions but live in a flat and am allready fairly careful with my electricity useaage. During most of the sessions I jsut don't use the kettle/big appliances. For the second one I went around turning as much as I could off at the wall. Across the first 3 sessions I made £1.26 with the hardcore session being about 60p of that. The finances don't work for me. Now I still avoid using appliances in those times but only really to be a good citizen. I did wonder if there should be some reward for %age reduction as well as just straight reduction to encourage people with allready low usage.

 

[elbows]

They were only warmed up as far as I know, which involves burning oil to get them ready to generate with coal should it be necessary. I can't see that any of them did any actual coal generation yesterday.

Yes. Although I think we are describing two different days events, ie:

It was reported in the news on Sunday that the warming up was taking place. But those didnt end up being called upon to generate on Monday, the instructions were cancelled.

The ones I mentioned yesterday were the next chapter in this, a repeat performance: they called on those three to warm up again with the possibility of them being called upon to generate today. These formal calls to warm up were issued between 4.39pm and 5.37pm yesterday. These have now been stood down too, with the instructions to cancel being published between 2.56am and 4.40am.

I provided more detail about that second day of instructions because they actually showed up on the official System Warnings page, unlike the previous days ones which I only saw reported in the news.

 

[elbows]

I wonder if I am a big enough nerd to try to find out which transmission system this message from the System Warnings page relates to. Probably, although I dont know if I will succeed:

NGESO has requested a Transmission Owner discontinue an outage within relevant Emergency Return to Service time, under STC Section C Part 2 (7). Issued by Natasa Dinic at 07:55 on 24/01/2023

From System Warnings | BMRS

 

[Pickman's model]

I wonder if I am a big enough nerd to try to find out which transmission system this message from the System Warnings page relates to. Probably, although I dont know if I will succeed:



From System Warnings | BMRS

i'll go yes and i think you'll succeed

 

[NoXion]

5p for switching off random shit for an hour? They're taking the fucking piss, aren't they?

The whole tenor of this harebrained scheme annoys the fuck out of me. The energy companies have got people chasing measly pennies when they can should just stop fucking robbing us. Cunts.

 

[platinumsage]

5p for switching off random shit for an hour? They're taking the fucking piss, aren't they?

The whole tenor of this harebrained scheme annoys the fuck out of me. The energy companies have got people chasing measly pennies when they can should just stop fucking robbing us. Cunts.

It's got nothing to do with the energy companies, they've just been roped into this scheme by National Grid ESO which is currently a subsidiary of National Grid PLC but will soon become a wholly state-owned company and which wouldn't have run this scheme any differently had the ownership structure change already been implemented.

In the future such schemes will not be necessary because your smart air-source heat pump or whatever will just reduce power for an hour without you even knowing.

 

[elbows]

5p for switching off random shit for an hour? They're taking the fucking piss, aren't they?

The whole tenor of this harebrained scheme annoys the fuck out of me. The energy companies have got people chasing measly pennies when they can should just stop fucking robbing us. Cunts.

This sort of reaction is understandable but such a reading of the situation happens for reasons such as:

People viewing it in the context of the current high energy price and cost of living crisis.

One hours worth of reduction in use isnt going to involve large sums of money, just as one hours worth of bills dont feature large amounts.

Some energy companies are not passing on the money to customers in the same way as others are.

The actual reason for the scheme is more to do with the need for greater flexibility on the demand side since we are in an awkward era where margins in winter are a bit on the tight side at times, especially when there is the combination of cold weather and lack of wind. The whole 'market' and 'consumer' way that things are dressed up in this neoliberal world means that there is added emphasis on 'consumers being able to save money' and such incentives are supposed to enable this scheme, but its not really what its all about. Its about spreading demand away from the peaks a bit in order to help the system cope.

 

[Karl Masks]

How is 5p going to convince Darren to take a break from FIFA on the playbox?

 

[NoXion]

How is 5p going to convince Darren to take a break from FIFA on the playbox?

Exactly. Unless genuinely motivating incentives are provided, this scheme is a complete waste of time.

 

[NoXion]

In the future such schemes will not be necessary because your smart air-source heat pump or whatever will just reduce power for an hour without you even knowing.

All the more reason to gimp or otherwise disable any "smart" bullshit as soon as you move into a place. I control the use of electricity in my home, nobody else.

 

[elbows]

i'll go yes and i think you'll succeed

Thanks, I dont think I will suceed though due to the lack of info provided, and the relative lack of transmission systems data I can find compared to other sorts of data that I have no trouble finding.

Its pretty easy for me to find data about the interconnectors with other countries, so if that form of transmission is involved then I should be able to spot it. But todays instruction may well relate to something internal, and I dont think I will find out the details of it unless the energy press cover the story.

Speaking of interconnectors, the nervousness about tight margins this week is partly down to uncertainties about how much electricity we will get from other countries during the periods of highest demand this week. Things are a bit tight on the continent and there was a setback in terms of available capacity on one of the French interconnectors - we got it back to 1500MW for a big chunk of January but since about the 19th its been down to 1000MW again. Its full capacity should be 2000MW but this has been curtailed to various extents for a very long period after a fire damaged the facilities in 2021.

As discussed previously on this thread, a part of the picture involves regional supply-demand imbalances. And the interconnectors are pretty vital for meeting the demands of London and the South East. So they do get rather nervous if periods involving a perfect storm pop up in that respect. The national media often leave this regional picture out of most of their stories about tight electricity periods, although if the shit does hit the fan in specific ways, or there is a near miss, then they suddenly mention it.

 

[elbows]

How is 5p going to convince Darren to take a break from FIFA on the playbox?

There is no point in only focussing on the very lowest amount that was mentioned. If some people only saved 5p then they were a poor candidate for the scheme in the first place, or their supplier is especially crap at how they implemented this scheme.

And if we are going to focus on other amounts such as 60p, then we need to place that amount in context too. Given we are talking about the saving from 1 hour of changed behaviour, at the very least we need to enquire as to how 60p compares to how much their electricity bills are per hour at other times.

If, for example, the amount I could save in one hour will cover the cost of a whole bunch of hours worth of electricity use at other times, then the proper context and incentive looms into view. Following on from that, if this scheme was active most days, rather than being a rere event, these small sounding sums would start to add up to something more tangible.

 

[xenon]

I don't think they're expecting you to turn everything off during this hour. i.e.Your X Stations and intelligent phone chargers. But to avoid using big power hungry devices like washing machines, cookers, hair dryers etc.

 

[elbows]

All the more reason to gimp or otherwise disable any "smart" bullshit as soon as you move into a place. I control the use of electricity in my home, nobody else.

Well you better start investigating rage-based generation then, because you arent going to like the way things are going to go.

The way they've gone about the energy transition means that even at best, we are likely to face a rather prolonged period where the demand side of the picture is where a lot of the action will be. Much of this is dressed up with words like 'flexibility' but what actually lurks beneath that term is demand destruction. This takes a number of forms, including people being priced out of various behaviours. Getting people to shift the timing of their behaviours rather than curtail them completely is at the mild end of the spectrum. This stuff is becoming a bit more obvious now in the 'developed world' but its been a story of the century for much longer in a whole bunch of 'developing countries' where demand destruction has been achieved in part by the removal of fuel subsidies. In some countries this had dramatic implications such as social unrest leading to the fall of governments.

 

[NoXion]

Well you better start investigating rage-based generation then, because you arent going to like the way things are going to go.

The way they've gone about the energy transition means that even at best, we are likely to face a rather prolonged period where the demand side of the picture is where a lot of the action will be. Much of this is dressed up with words like 'flexibility' but what actually lurks beneath that term is demand destruction. This takes a number of forms, including people being priced out of various behaviours. Getting people to shift the timing of their behaviours rather than curtail them completely is at the mild end of the spectrum. This stuff is becoming a bit more obvious now in the 'developed world' but its been a story of the century for much longer in a whole bunch of 'developing countries' where demand destruction has been achieved in part by the removal of fuel subsidies. In some countries this had dramatic implications such as social unrest leading to the fall of governments.

Rising prices is one thing, that's to be expected, although profiteering should still be resisted, as in the "Don't Pay" campaign.

But if some bunch of overpaid pointy-heads take it upon themselves to start dictating how and when I use the energy that I already pay too much money for, well that's when I start becoming more interested in how to circumvent that kind of dystopian bullshit. Doubt I'm the only one. I'm sure that the whey-faced cunts in charge of this kind of nonsense will use all kinds of arm-twisting tricks to get people to comply, but then they've always been like that. Fuck 'em.

 

[platinumsage]

Rising prices is one thing, that's to be expected, although profiteering should still be resisted, as in the "Don't Pay" campaign.

But if some bunch of overpaid pointy-heads take it upon themselves to start dictating how and when I use the energy that I already pay too much money for, well that's when I start becoming more interested in how to circumvent that kind of dystopian bullshit. Doubt I'm the only one. I'm sure that the whey-faced cunts in charge of this kind of nonsense will use all kinds of arm-twisting tricks to get people to comply, but then they've always been like that. Fuck 'em.

You prefer the alternative of investing in fossil fuel power generators that sit idle for 99% of the time? There are secret parks of diesel generator arrays just sitting there so everyone can put the kettle on after the world cup final or whatever. What a terrible thing to replace those with a small power reduction in everyone's fridge that no one will notice.

 

[gentlegreen]

I confess I still kept warm and nuked my tea yesterday evening, but in future I will be taking peak demand into consideration and tweak my lifestyle accordingly...

 

[NoXion]

You prefer the alternative of investing in fossil fuel power generators that sit idle for 99% of the time? There are secret parks of diesel generator arrays just sitting there so everyone can put the kettle on after the world cup final or whatever. What a terrible thing to replace those with a small power reduction in everyone's fridge that no one will notice.

Thanks for providing an example of a strawman and a false dichotomy. I knew I could rely on you.