UK gas/electricity supply shortages this winter

[elbows]

Turns out there have been a bunch of different issues with various interconnectors with France this month, reducing available capacity between the countries.

Our already crappy nuclear capacity is also reduced at the moment due to a bunch of reactors offline for refuelling and one off for maintenance.

This post isnt supposed to be a doom warning though, just nerdy detail, detail I would shout a bit louder if we were deep into a cold winter at the time of the issues.

 

[elbows]

Just to update on my previous post:

One of the interconnectors, IFA with France got 500MW back compared to its recent reduction (the one damaged by fire a long time ago, now running at 1.5GW instead of full 2GW, was down to 1GW for a time recently).

But IFA2 interconnector with France is still down. Suspected cable fault, with a return date currently pencilled into the system of Feb 1st 2024. Thats 1GW lost. I dont think I've seen any media reports about this. I wouldnt necessarily expect any general media reports about this because they arent running a broader story of electricity woes at the moment that this would feed into, but I havent seen it mentioned in speciality publications yet either. So I just have the barest of info via the REMIT system.

We've got about 1GW of nuclear generation back since my previous post.

 

[elbows]

Another Demand Flexibility Service period on Wednesday:

Discounts return to cut electricity use amid cold snap

National Grid ESO's scheme offers some households a chance to save on energy bills during peak hours.

www.bbc.co.uk

National Grid ESO said it decided to offer discounts in return for people reducing their electricity consumption after its forecasts showed tighter than usual supply margins on Wednesday evening.
"These are precautionary measures to maintain the buffer of spare capacity we need," the network operator said.

The so-called Demand Flexibility Service enables households to save cash if they avoid high-power activities, such as cooking or using washing machines, for a specified period when demand is high.

The cold weather and a lack of wind is expected to contribute to higher power demand, but National Grid ESO said deploying the scheme was based on a "combination of factors".

 

[elbows]

edit - oops I had a brain fart and got the year wrong when looking at capacity notices so I have deleted this post.

 

[elbows]

Another Demand Flexibility Service period scheduled for Friday from 4.30pm to 6pm.

 

[elbows]

I am no longer posting here every time there is a Demand Flexibility Service period announced. I think I've missed a few already this month.

Meanwhile the new 'Viking Link' interconnector with Denmark has started to show some inward flows to the UK in recent days. I dont think its due to be officially commissioned will around the 29th December but they are obviously trying it already. Sounds like they cant use it at full rated capacity for quite a while though due to unfinished grid projects in a region of Denmark. All the same, they can still get 800MW out of it.

 

[elbows]

A few thoughts and an early preview in regards the coming winter:

No more generation from coal as a backup during the tightest moments.

French nuclear situation remains vastly better than it was two years ago.

I am not aware of any major concerns in regards gas supply, which was the other major factor in ramping up concerns several years ago.

Currently not much in the way of unplanned UK nuclear outages compared to what was seen on some occasions in recent years.

I havent looked for forecasts for the coming winter yet. I will do a followup post when I do.

Some changes to the Demand Flexibility Service have been proposed for this year, but I havent found out whether the regulator has accepted them yet. I expect we will hear a bit about this in the months to come.

If there are any problems this winter, it will likely be down to the usual combination of unfavourable weather conditions (eg ones that reduce wind generation and increase demand) and unplanned generation or transmission outages coinciding with that.

Interconnectors are increasingly important, and right now there are a whole bunch of significant outages. It is lucky that these have happened at this time of year rather than in several months time. At the moment the link to Norway is down, two links to France are down and the biggest link to France is only operating at half capacity. Combined, I believe this amounts to over 4GW of potential missing supply. I need to check the latest estimates of when these will come back into service. Most of the interconnectors, when operating, tend to spend most of their time importing electricity into the UK as opposed to exporting it. This matters to the grid as a whole, but especially to meeting the demands of London and the South.

 

[gentlegreen]

A nutter on PT posted a loony prepper video that I didn't watch that referenced an inaccessible Torygraph "article"

Seems to be a pro-coal thing ...

Britain ‘critically vulnerable’ to energy crisis

Experts warn over gas dependency after blackout prevent system mobilised for first time in two years

www.telegraph.co.uk

Energy Crisis Commission

info@energycrisiscommission.uk

energycrisiscommission.uk

 

[elbows]

When poking around to bring myself up-to-date, I noticed that a Electricity Capacity Market Notice was issued on 14th October for the first time in nearly 2 years. These are issued when the expected margin between supply and demand falls to a dangerously low level. As is quite typical with these things, that notice was cancelled later, often as a result of the market having responded accordingly, resulting in a change the supply and/or demand prediction for the period in question.

I have not been able to ascertain all of the reasons why this situation arose, as its usual a combination of factors and I cannot monitor all of them, but it is likely that the sudden loss of the Norway interconnector was a big part of it. Especially as the timing of the start of that loss matches rather well, and it would have taken a bit of time for the planners to get alternative sources inserted into that days balancing plans, and issuing that sort of market capacity notice is one way to get that sort of response quickly.

Meanwhile I also note that one big reform of the system went ahead, the plans for a 'Future System Operator' came to fruition. National Grids Electricity System Operator (ESO) department was sold to the state for £630 million. Now we have a new publicly owned body called the National Energy System Operator (NESO) which is responsible for that part of the system, and also for similar stuff when it comes to the likes of gas. This formally happened on October 1st, so it was NESO that was responsible for issuing the aforementioned Electricity Capacity Market Notice.

I wont attempt to quote any of the waffle about NESO right now, but to give some sense of what sort of things its predecessor was responsible for, this is what Ofgem said about the old ESO:

The Electricity System Operator (ESO) performs several important functions; from second-by-second balancing of electricity supply and demand, to developing markets and advising on network investments. The ESO has an important role to play in the UK’s transition to a decarbonised, decentralised and digitalised energy system.

 

[elbows]

A nutter on PT posted a loony prepper video that I didn't watch that referenced an inaccessible Torygraph "article"

Seems to be a pro-coal thing ...

Britain ‘critically vulnerable’ to energy crisis

Experts warn over gas dependency after blackout prevent system mobilised for first time in two years

www.telegraph.co.uk

Energy Crisis Commission

info@energycrisiscommission.uk

energycrisiscommission.uk

Ah, I havent had access to that Telegraph article myself either, so I dont know what spin they put on it, but it probably refers to the 14th October Electricity Capacity Market Notice that I just mentioned in my previous post.

 

[elbows]

Some nuclear industry association also took the opportunity to put out a press release moaning about the loss of our old nuclear power stations, and the next few scheduled closures in the coming years. Opportunism in the face of that Electricity Capacity Market Notice, calling for more investment in nuclear.

The reality is that even if we press ahead with all the nuclear plans and ambitions that have already been announced, get them all fiunded and do as much as possible to deliver them at fast pace, nuclear projects take absolutely ages, and have a very long history of suffering numerous delays. So they arent going to help with any system shortfalls that we may have in the next 5-6 years, maybe much longer. And Im being generous with that timescale by including Hinckley Point C, which is already long past the funding stage. The only other nuclear stuff that will help in that timeframe is if some of the remaining plants get further life extensions beyond their current closure dates. Our current nuclear generation capacity has dwindled to the extent that when all the interconnectors are working, we get nearly as much electricity from Frances nuclear fleet as we do our own!

 

[elbows]

Since I went on about them the other day, I suppose I better report on updates to the status of the interconnectors I mentioned.

In the last day or so the interconnector with Norway was restored (1.4GW), and the largest interconnector with France is now back to full capacity (2GW instead of 1GW).

The other two interconnectors with France, which have about 1GW capacity each, are not currently due back till mid November. One of these runs through the channel tunnel!

 

[elbows]

Since I went on about them the other day, I suppose I better report on updates to the status of the interconnectors I mentioned.

In the last day or so the interconnector with Norway was restored (1.4GW), and the largest interconnector with France is now back to full capacity (2GW instead of 1GW).

The other two interconnectors with France, which have about 1GW capacity each, are not currently due back till mid November. One of these runs through the channel tunnel!

I may as well update this picture.

One of the faulty French interconnectors came back in November as hoped. The other one, which runs through the channel tunnel, has had its outage extended several times and its now not due back till February.

Earlier this month the interconnector between the UK and the Netherlands developed an onshore cable fault and is currently not scheduled to return till the end of January. This is another of the ~1GW capacity ones.

So we are still about 2GW down on maximum interconnector capacity. On its own this doesnt cause a complete nightmare, it will just be if other circumstances occur where we need the wiggle room in winter that this adds to the problem. Its our first winter without wiggle room from backup coal generation too, but I am not presently predicting a problem because I couldnt do that unless weather and other unplanned outages create a sticky situation.

Meanwhile Frances brand new nuclear reactor, Flamanville 3, which suffered a 12-13 year delay in becoming ready and is of the same type as being built at Hinkley Point (albeit Hinkley gets 2 of these reactors), is finally scheduled to come online in the system proper tomorrow. But they will be running it at various test loads till next summer so it wont be instantly adding 1675MW to their system. Their system is in better shape than last winter and vastly better shape than the winter before that, with at least 8-9GW more nuclear supply available this time around than was the case at the peak of winter 2022-23. I monitor this in a UK context because of the interconnectors and Frances available spare capacity which can be exported to a number of countries.

 

[elbows]

Meanwhile the Demand Flexibility Service has evolved and is now a year-round thing. I believe this involves some new commercial and market mechanisms and contracts, and some suppliers can probably use it to offer cheaper (or even free) electricity during periods where available renewable etc supply is outstripping demand.

But one consequence of it no longer being only a winter wiggle room thing is that I dont think its being promoted in the mainstream press in the same way we saw happen in the previous two winters. So I dont have a handy article to point to, and I havent seen whether the electricity companies have been promoting such schemes to consumers much this time around.

Also in terms of the big picture and household consumers, I believe there is a plan to make the 'metered per half hour period' thing that large business consumers have long enjoyed a part of the broader household consumer system within a few years, and when blended with smart meters we will start to see more of the flexible, 'smart', variably priced system come to fruition. There are also plans to offer people the choice of an energy deal that doesnt have a standing change, although whether thats a better deal for you will depend on your level of consumption since you'll pay more per unit instead. The classic type of deal that has a standing charge will still be available, so it will be another choice to make.

Returning to this winter, another reason we are hearing less in the press this time is that the National Energy System Operators winter forecast decided there is more wiggle room than last winter:

NESO’s Winter Outlook Report for 2024/2025 shows sufficient available capacity to meet electricity demand in winter 2024/2025 with a derated margin of 5.2GW (8.8%) of the average peak cold spell demand for this winter and a LOLE of below 0.1 hours/year. This is an increase from 4.4GW (7.4% of peak demand) last winter.

(that quote is from Statutory Security of Supply Report 2024. )

Although I suspect that calculation wont have taken into account the remaining interconnector issues I just mentioned, so perhaps the situation isnt actually more comfortable than last winter, and in any case the weather has yet to have its important say in the picture.

Obviously the gas situation of two winters ago is not the same these days either (UK gas distribution system being used to export more to continental Europe to compensate for their Ukraine-Russia related shortfalls), which was the other reason press attention was high two years ago and threads like this one came into being.