gosub
~#
Has he called himself PPC or PC if its Parlimentary Candidate, uou are right his campaign has started and, as a rival agent will undoubtly point out to the ERO spending caps apply
The 2024 UK General Election - news, speculation and updates
- Thread starter chilango
- Start date
PTK
Paul Kegan
It makes sense to me say that it is predicted that a particular party will win, on the basis of opinion polls, but I sceptical that this can be described as a "chance" of winning.
PTK
Paul Kegan
Spending limits only apply once the General Election has been declared.
In between elections, sitting MPs sometimes advertise themselves all through the years, and this is not counted as electoral expenses.
Leafster
.
I was just going to post a moan that despite all these swings away from the Tories I was still likely to end up with a Tory MP as she had nearly 60% of the vote here last time.
But, here's what Electoral Calculus have to say.
It's seems it not just the residents of Dorking who are restless.
Silas Loom
Advanced. Forthright. Signifficant.
There are more “kind yuppies” in the UK as delineated by Electoral Calculus than I would have thought. Everyone else in London and the South East must have filofaxes stuffed with details of orphanages and hedgehog sanctuaries they are secretly funding. It’s like finding out one’s neighbours were quiet bat people all along.
PTK
Paul Kegan
What was the "probability" of the Lib Dems winning in the seat last time?
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
PTK
Paul Kegan
If we cannot find the supposed probabilities for the last election, and compare them to the actual results, we cannot assess the accuracy of the Electoral Calculus website. Have we any evidence that this website’s predictions are soundly based. I was just looking at another prediction that it made that I would be prepared to bet will not come true.
Silas Loom
Advanced. Forthright. Signifficant.
rubbershoes
not the only raver in the village
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Firstly it's not a 'he', and secondly no mention of being a PPC or PC as such, it just reads 'Dr Beccy Cooper - standing to be your local MP for Worthing West',.
She was declared by Labour as their candidate weeks ago, and I am not convinced that makes any difference, as all I can find on the Electoral Commission's website is references to the limits on candidate's spending during the 'regulated/election period.'
Orkney and Shetland's been Lib Dem, or other liberal parties before that, since forever but that electoral calculus website has Labour overtaking the SNP for second place and the Tories losing their deposit this time
cupid_stunt
Chief seagull hater & farmerbarleymow's nemesis.
Promoted by Phil Dufty (I assume election agent) on behalf of Beccy Cooper both at the Labour hall, Worthing, Printed by some company in Wales.
PTK
Paul Kegan
There seems to be a confusion of “predicted percentage” with “chance of winning”.
It seems to me that, even if all the constituencies were the same as last time, there could be no test of the accuracy of a probability claim with respect to one constituency.
To say that there is a 40% probability of an outcome of an event means that, if the event were to occur 100 times, then that outcome would arise 40 times. Each general election in a constituency is a unique event. It cannot occur again.
Flipping a coin is not a unique event. The conditions that give rise to the event can be identical. Flipping a coin is an event that can be reproduced indefinitely.
Each general election in a constituency, even if the boundaries are unchanged, is unique. We cannot examine 100 general elections in a constituency, and observe that 40 of them are won by the Liberal Democrats, because the events are not identical.
We can never prove that the Liberal Democrats have a 40% chance is a particular constituency, because we can never observe a particular general election in that constituency more than once. That conditions that give rise to the event that is a general election result in that constituency can never be repeated.
It seems to me that, even if all the constituencies were the same as last time, there could be no test of the accuracy of a probability claim with respect to one constituency.
To say that there is a 40% probability of an outcome of an event means that, if the event were to occur 100 times, then that outcome would arise 40 times. Each general election in a constituency is a unique event. It cannot occur again.
Flipping a coin is not a unique event. The conditions that give rise to the event can be identical. Flipping a coin is an event that can be reproduced indefinitely.
Each general election in a constituency, even if the boundaries are unchanged, is unique. We cannot examine 100 general elections in a constituency, and observe that 40 of them are won by the Liberal Democrats, because the events are not identical.
We can never prove that the Liberal Democrats have a 40% chance is a particular constituency, because we can never observe a particular general election in that constituency more than once. That conditions that give rise to the event that is a general election result in that constituency can never be repeated.
PTK
Paul Kegan
No, it would not be counted as an electoral expense, as no election has been declared. The expense limit only applies to the declared electoral campaign period.
Rob Ray
Weight is meaningless
I'm so glad we're back to proper grown-up politics.
"You're Islamophobic and mad"
"You're anti-Semitic and all from North London"
If the entire fucking building fell into the river at the next PMQs nothing of any value would be lost. How dare these witless freaks claim the power to run our lives, and how abject are we to let them?
"You're Islamophobic and mad"
"You're anti-Semitic and all from North London"
If the entire fucking building fell into the river at the next PMQs nothing of any value would be lost. How dare these witless freaks claim the power to run our lives, and how abject are we to let them?
PTK
Paul Kegan
It will never be proved if this "probability" figure is correct.
brogdale
Coming to terms with late onset Anarchism
Buddy Bradley
Pantheistic solipsist
I just love it where I live... 
Older, under-educated, under-employed, 98% white.
Older, under-educated, under-employed, 98% white.
andysays
Love and solidarity
I'm curious how those "chance of winning" figures are calculated.
They've predicted vote share of
Con 29.7%
Lib 30.0%
Lab 24.7%
If those figures were correct, the LibDems would win, but of course there's a margin of error.
Depending what that margin of error is, it might be too close to call between LibDem and Con, but there would need to be a pretty big error for Lab to win, so my hunch is that they're probably understating the chance of winning for LibDem and Con, and overstating it for Lab.
But without a bit more information on how they've arrived at the predicted vote figures and how they've translated those into chance of vote figures, I'm not sure how meaningful it all is.
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
the electoral calculus site predicts a lab win for kettering, a solid one as well. I'll believe it when I see it tbh.
planetgeli
There's no future in England's dreaming
Absolutely not. Largely because Plaid probably haven't realised there is an election coming up in a foreign country. And they don't give too many shits.
| Chance of winning | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| CON |
| ||
| Plaid |
| ||
| LAB |
|
hitmouse
so defeated, thinks it's funny
steeplejack
trapped lbw for a duck
The SNP predicted to hang on where I am comfortably.
I really don't see the party dropping to 19 seats nor the mass enthusiasm for Keir Starmer or Labour. So suspect "electoral calculus" is more than a little skwee-wiff.
The SNP will end up high 20s I think, if the narrow contests fall their way, low 30s. Labour just aren't cutting through.
I really don't see the party dropping to 19 seats nor the mass enthusiasm for Keir Starmer or Labour. So suspect "electoral calculus" is more than a little skwee-wiff.
The SNP will end up high 20s I think, if the narrow contests fall their way, low 30s. Labour just aren't cutting through.
mx wcfc
Well-Known Member
Complete copy and paste fail with the charts, but I'm pleased to see that Winchester is showing as a LibDem gain from Con, despite the boundary changes dumping a sizeable chunk of rural, tory voting, but soon to be abolished, West Meon on us.
As well as those West Meon tory wards, we have also acquired the West Meon MP as our tory candidate. She is running scared at the moment, judging by her publicity.
I'm baffled by some of the data though. How can this area be 75% ABC1, but 42% Deprived?
And the "Tribes" thing? Apparently, we are Kind Yuppies. Many people round here may well have been yuppies in the 80s, but they are more Middle Aged, comfortably well off these days.
As well as those West Meon tory wards, we have also acquired the West Meon MP as our tory candidate. She is running scared at the moment, judging by her publicity.
I'm baffled by some of the data though. How can this area be 75% ABC1, but 42% Deprived?
And the "Tribes" thing? Apparently, we are Kind Yuppies. Many people round here may well have been yuppies in the 80s, but they are more Middle Aged, comfortably well off these days.
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