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The 2024 UK General Election - news, speculation and updates

PR1Berske said:
As good as any place to put this. Here are all the MPs currently sitting as independent, none of whom elected as such.



Diane Abbott (Lab) - lost whip 23/4/23
Lee Anderson (C) - lost whip 24/2/24
Scott Benton (C) - lost whip 5/4/23
Crispin Blunt (C) - lost whip 25/10/23
Andrew Bridgen (C) - lost whip 11/1/23. Joined Reclaim for a time, but now Independent again.
Nick Brown (Lab) - lost whip 7/9/22
Lisa Cameron (SNP) - defected to the Conservatives 12/10/23
Bambos Charalambous (Lab) - lost whip 9/6/23
Jeremy Corbyn (Lab) - lost whip 30/10/20
Geraint Davies (Lab) - lost whip 1/6/23
Matt Hancock (C) - lost whip 1/11/22
Neale Hanvey (SNP) - lost whip on arrival at Westminster after being disowned as candidate, whip subsequently restored but defected to Alba 28/3/21
Julian Knight (C) - lost whip 8/12/22
Kenny MacAskill (SNP) - defected to Alba 27/3/21
Andy McDonald (Lab) - lost whip 30/10/23
Conor McGinn (Lab) - lost whip 7/12/22
Angus McNeil (SNP) - lost whip 5/7/23. Expelled from the SNP 11/8/23
Kate Osamor (Lab) - lost whip 28/1/24
Rob Roberts (C) - lost whip 25/5/21
Christian Wakeford (C) - defected to Labour 19/1/22
Claudia Webbe (Lab) - lost whip 28/9/20. Expelled from the Labour Party 4/11/21
Click to expand...

You are missing my MP.

Jonathan Edwards, kicked from Plaid Cymru in May 2020 for beating up his wife (police caution)
 
Independent MP's is a sort of rolling total, it gets set to 0 at a GE but slowly creeps up again over the next few years.
 
MickiQ said:
Independent MP's is a sort of rolling total, it gets set to 0 at a GE but slowly creeps up again over the next few years.
Click to expand...
I’d have to check, but I’m pretty sure this parliament would be double the usual number, at least. Johnson expelling all the centrists is the only one that could come close.
 
Mea culpa. That list doesn't show what I thought, it was taken from another source without my double checking. I'll sort it later.
 
Let's try again.

Abbott, Diane (ex-Labour, contents of letter to newspaper)
Anderson, Lee (ex-Conservative, accusations of Islamophobia)
Benton Scott (ex-Conservative, caught in newspaper sting, Recall Petition due)
Blunt, Crispin (ex-Conservative, arrested on rape and drugs charges)
Bridgen, Andrew (ex-Conservative, ex-Reclaim, conspiracy theory promoting and increasing discontent)
Brown, Nick (ex-Labour, allegations of behaviour)
Charalambous, Bambos (ex-Labour, allegations of behaviour)
Corbyn, Jeremy (ex-Labour, response to anti-Semitism report)
Davies, Geraint (ex-Labour, allegations of sexual misconduct)
Edwards, Jonathan (ex-Plaid, domestic abuse)
Hancock, Matt (ex-Conservative, appeared on "I'm a Celebrity")
Knight, Julian (ex-Conservative, allegations of sexual assault)
McDonald, Andy (ex-Labour, following comments made at Palestine rally)
McGinn, Conor (ex-Labour, subject of complaint to party's independent procedure)
MacNeil, Angus (ex-SNP, serious disagreement with party)
Osamor, Kate (ex-Labour, comments about Israel-Hamas conflict)
Roberts, Rob (ex-Conservative, inappropriate behaviour)
Stewart, Bob (ex-Conservative, conviction for racially motivated abuse)
Webbe, Claudia (ex-Labour, conviction for harassment)
 
Talking of Independent MPs, this has just dropped

RMT leader Mick Lynch gives Jeremy Corbyn general election backing​


The RMT Union has announced it will be supporting former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn at the next general election. Mr Corbyn is the independent MP for Islington North - a seat he has held since 1983.

"We will support all sorts of people in this election, because we're not affiliated," Mr Lynch told the War on Want conference. He added: "We will support Labour candidates. We will support socialist candidates. We will be supporting Jeremy Corbyn in the next election."

Although Corbyn is the only one mentioned by name, there are possibly a few more on PR1Berske's list who might get their support.
 
andysays said:
Talking of Independent MPs, this has just dropped

RMT leader Mick Lynch gives Jeremy Corbyn general election backing​


The RMT Union has announced it will be supporting former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn at the next general election. Mr Corbyn is the independent MP for Islington North - a seat he has held since 1983.

"We will support all sorts of people in this election, because we're not affiliated," Mr Lynch told the War on Want conference. He added: "We will support Labour candidates. We will support socialist candidates. We will be supporting Jeremy Corbyn in the next election."

Although Corbyn is the only one mentioned by name, there are possibly a few more on PR1Berske's list who might get their support.
Click to expand...
It's an interesting prospect. Whatever one thinks of Corbyn, he's been a supporter of the labour movement, not necessarily the Labour Party, for his whole life, and standing against an official Labour candidate might not be something he wishes to do, even after his treatment by Starmer etc. I can imagine he'd walk an election as an independent, like.
 
PR1Berske said:
It's an interesting prospect. Whatever one thinks of Corbyn, he's been a supporter of the labour movement, not necessarily the Labour Party, for his whole life, and standing against an official Labour candidate might not be something he wishes to do, even after his treatment by Starmer etc. I can imagine he'd walk an election as an independent, like.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I agree he would at least be in two minds about standing as an Independent.

I don't agree that he would necessarily walk it, even though he clearly has a lot of local support, but having the backing of the RMT could make all the difference if he did run.
 
PR1Berske said:
Let's try again.

Abbott, Diane (ex-Labour, contents of letter to newspaper)
Anderson, Lee (ex-Conservative, accusations of Islamophobia)
Benton Scott (ex-Conservative, caught in newspaper sting, Recall Petition due)
Blunt, Crispin (ex-Conservative, arrested on rape and drugs charges)
Bridgen, Andrew (ex-Conservative, ex-Reclaim, conspiracy theory promoting and increasing discontent)
Brown, Nick (ex-Labour, allegations of behaviour)
Charalambous, Bambos (ex-Labour, allegations of behaviour)
Corbyn, Jeremy (ex-Labour, response to anti-Semitism report)
Davies, Geraint (ex-Labour, allegations of sexual misconduct)
Edwards, Jonathan (ex-Plaid, domestic abuse)
Hancock, Matt (ex-Conservative, appeared on "I'm a Celebrity")
Knight, Julian (ex-Conservative, allegations of sexual assault)
McDonald, Andy (ex-Labour, following comments made at Palestine rally)
McGinn, Conor (ex-Labour, subject of complaint to party's independent procedure)
MacNeil, Angus (ex-SNP, serious disagreement with party)
Osamor, Kate (ex-Labour, comments about Israel-Hamas conflict)
Roberts, Rob (ex-Conservative, inappropriate behaviour)
Stewart, Bob (ex-Conservative, conviction for racially motivated abuse)
Webbe, Claudia (ex-Labour, conviction for harassment)
Click to expand...
If they were a party grouping they be the 4th largest in the commons, with more MPs than the 6 smallest parties in total.
 
PR1Berske said:
Let's try again.

Abbott, Diane (ex-Labour, contents of letter to newspaper)
Anderson, Lee (ex-Conservative, accusations of Islamophobia)
Benton Scott (ex-Conservative, caught in newspaper sting, Recall Petition due)
Blunt, Crispin (ex-Conservative, arrested on rape and drugs charges)
Bridgen, Andrew (ex-Conservative, ex-Reclaim, conspiracy theory promoting and increasing discontent)
Brown, Nick (ex-Labour, allegations of behaviour)
Charalambous, Bambos (ex-Labour, allegations of behaviour)
Corbyn, Jeremy (ex-Labour, response to anti-Semitism report)
Davies, Geraint (ex-Labour, allegations of sexual misconduct)
Edwards, Jonathan (ex-Plaid, domestic abuse)
Hancock, Matt (ex-Conservative, appeared on "I'm a Celebrity")
Knight, Julian (ex-Conservative, allegations of sexual assault)
McDonald, Andy (ex-Labour, following comments made at Palestine rally)
McGinn, Conor (ex-Labour, subject of complaint to party's independent procedure)
MacNeil, Angus (ex-SNP, serious disagreement with party)
Osamor, Kate (ex-Labour, comments about Israel-Hamas conflict)
Roberts, Rob (ex-Conservative, inappropriate behaviour)
Stewart, Bob (ex-Conservative, conviction for racially motivated abuse)
Webbe, Claudia (ex-Labour, conviction for harassment)
Click to expand...
What is the behaviour alleged in the allegations about Nick Brown and Bambos Charalambous?
 
PR1Berske said:
Click to expand...


That 'i' article is an interesting read, here's a paywall busted link - https://archive.ph/oAt3x

But what if the polls really have got it fundamentally wrong again, like they did in ’92? That year, an investigation into their failure concluded that around a quarter of the collective error was explained by Tory supporters refusing to reveal their allegiance in face-to-face or telephone interviews. In addition, the polling companies were judged to have used samples of the electorate in which Labour sympathisers were over-represented – a mistake repeated in 2015. Finally, the Conservatives benefited from a very late swing to them which the surveys failed to capture.

The party will do their best to achieve another late revival this time. Is it also possible that Tory genuine supporters could once again be deceiving pollsters because they are shy about admitting they favour such an unpopular party?
Click to expand...

Tim Bale, professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London, thinks not. He plays down the theory that “shy Tories” are distorting the picture today, pointing to a crucial change that polling companies have made since 1992. Many polls are now done online, and experts like Professor Bale believe that makes voters more likely to be truthful in them.

“The internet surveys that are so common these days are supposedly less vulnerable to ‘social desirability bias’, when respondents conceal their true opinion on a subject in order to make themselves look good to others,” he said.

Labour is confident and says its private polling confirms it has built a healthy lead. “It’s clear that people are really, really fed up with the Tories,” a source said. “It’s also clear that people think we’ve changed, and we get credit for that.”
Click to expand...
 
PR1Berske said:
Let's try again.

Abbott, Diane (ex-Labour, contents of letter to newspaper)
Anderson, Lee (ex-Conservative, accusations of Islamophobia)
Benton Scott (ex-Conservative, caught in newspaper sting, Recall Petition due)
Blunt, Crispin (ex-Conservative, arrested on rape and drugs charges)
Bridgen, Andrew (ex-Conservative, ex-Reclaim, conspiracy theory promoting and increasing discontent)
Brown, Nick (ex-Labour, allegations of behaviour)
Charalambous, Bambos (ex-Labour, allegations of behaviour)
Corbyn, Jeremy (ex-Labour, response to anti-Semitism report)
Davies, Geraint (ex-Labour, allegations of sexual misconduct)
Edwards, Jonathan (ex-Plaid, domestic abuse)
Hancock, Matt (ex-Conservative, appeared on "I'm a Celebrity")
Knight, Julian (ex-Conservative, allegations of sexual assault)
McDonald, Andy (ex-Labour, following comments made at Palestine rally)
McGinn, Conor (ex-Labour, subject of complaint to party's independent procedure)
MacNeil, Angus (ex-SNP, serious disagreement with party)
Osamor, Kate (ex-Labour, comments about Israel-Hamas conflict)
Roberts, Rob (ex-Conservative, inappropriate behaviour)
Stewart, Bob (ex-Conservative, conviction for racially motivated abuse)
Webbe, Claudia (ex-Labour, conviction for harassment)
Click to expand...
IIRC Stewart's conviction has been overturned on appeal.
 
GarveyLives said:
And now ...


​
Click to expand...

The terrifying shape of things to come:

_132744447_dailyexpress-nc.png
 
Somewhat surprised to have just had a Labour GE campaign leaflet delivered, and it's targeted for this village, with a quote from a local resident commenting on how the candidate, who is both a doctor and leader of Worthing Borough Council, knows the village well and the threats it faces of overdevelopment, there's additional quotes of support from a local business owner, and a GP - all very slick for the target audience.

It has always been a safe Tory seat, even in the Labour landslide of 1997 Bottomley had a majority of 7,713, but Electoral Calculus currently predicts there's 81% chance of Labour winning, so they are clearly going to throw a lot of resources into kicking the 'Father of the House' out.

1709122364808.png


So, has the campaign started where you are?
 
No. But my constituency, Chipping Barnet, was a Lab/Con marginal in 2019 with a sizeable Corbyn-repelled Jewish vote, narrowly held by Con. So it should be completely safe for Lab this time round and I would expect resources to be deployed elsewhere.
 
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