The 2024 General Election prediction thread - Who is the Urban 75 Ballot Box Nostradamus?

[philosophical]

I predict that after my cup of tea, I will get myself together and go and vote.

 

[Steel Icarus]

Which leaves Louth in Lincolnshire. I know nothing of this seat, but the 'kippers didnt have a great history there, so it seems a bit of a longshot, but that or Ashfield will join Clacton and Skeggy, I reckon.

Louth is the town of my birth and has been Tory for exactly 100 years. I've few ties to it any more so couldn't tell you why Reform stand to win it, but I'm guessing a protest against the Tories more than anything else.

 

[ATOMIC SUPLEX]

Yeah, I think Reform are also going to do a lot better than expected.
I don't think enough people see them as the racist twat vote. For many they are local votes for local people vote. The anti ulez anti low traffic area vote. The 'something else' vote. I have seen them turning up with a little stand at various local events (classic car show, street party, fair), and I assume people have not told them to fuck off. They have always looked comfortably integrated.

 

[Pickman's model]

Well, after looking at all the variations and possibilities, I can now make my prediction.

Labour - 40% 451 seats
Conservatives - 21% 86 seats
Libscum - 11% 69 seats
Green - 7% 3 seats
SNP 30% in Scotland/3% 16 seats
PC - <1% 3 seats
WPB - <<1% 1 seat
Independents - 2% 1 seat
Reform - 15% 3 seats
NI the rest - 18 seats, 8 of which will be SF.

Just looking at the voting figure, electoral calculus gives Labour 20 more seats (& the tories 20 fewer) but that is roughly the number I think Labour will miss out on (ones that should be within 2%) because they haven't made that big effort on election day to get the vote out, whereas the tories will do. And I just can't believe the tories will drop that low and behind the Libscum.

Reform should also bed getting 6, but they are still very local campaigns which will be affected by very local events. Clacton and Skegness & Boston will go their way. Barnsley North, which should be their best bet, won't because even Farage has disowned the candidate there and there has been a strong Labour campaign for the last five years. Ashfield is similar, tho that will all depend on how many the local indie candidate gets, which is really hard to tell. Skipton & Ripon surprises me by being the next most likely to fall, which I just find hard to believe (having grown up next door). It is inherently tory, and mostly a tory that would think themselves too good for Reform. If Labour managed to get everyone who voted for them in 2017 to vote for them again, they'd win. Sadly, they won't. Which leaves Louth in Lincolnshire. I know nothing of this seat, but the 'kippers didnt have a great history there, so it seems a bit of a longshot, but that or Ashfield will join Clacton and Skeggy, I reckon.

Galloway will narrowly win. Islington North will be incredibly close, EC has it down as the one seat where tactical voting will make the difference (the Stop Corbyn vote winning it for Labor), but I'm going for JC to scrape back.

The SNP rout will only not look too bad because it won't be as bad as the tories' rout. But it will be bad.

The last time I was in louth the monster raving loony party were having their conference there

 

[PR1Berske]

I've written form my prediction in a sealed envelope. Will see how it looks tomorrow!

 

[marty21]

Went to vote early doors , just after 7, usually one of the 1st voters , met my downstairs neighbour as he was coming out of the Polling station

 

[philosophical]

When I went to vote the lady said it was a bit busier than usual.
This is in the non marginal Lewisham East.

 

[skyscraper101]

It was empty when I went (Bemondsey) around 9:30am.

 

[planetgeli]

Obviously this isn't too close to call but it is, largely because of Tory incompetence and the unknown of Refuck, too hard to call accurately. Everyone on here seems to think Electoral Calculus is God but I'd be very surprised if they're right about the Tories only getting 78 seats.

So purely for shits and giggles: (Electoral Calculus in brackets)

Labour 433 (453)
Tories 101 (78)
Libs 59 (67)
SNP 22 (19)
Refuck - who the fuck knows? 9 (7)
PC 4 (3)
Green 3 (3)
Other 1 (2)

 

[Kaka Tim]

So - i'll go first - Tories seem definitely en-route to an almighty tonking from the voters - but by just how much?
Some prediciton have them getting less than 100 seats and even coming behind the Lib Dems in seat numbers. I still think they wont do quite that badly and they have a residual base who will never vote labour and that some of the Refukers will return to the verminous fold cos fear of evil starmer. I dont think ReFuks polling is that impressive - Farage has had a huge amount of publicity and bumped up their ratings - but I suspect a "Cleggmania" situation where all the .. "excitement" fades come polling day.

Labour 41%
Tories 25%
ReFuk - 15%
Lib Dems - 11%
Greens - 5%

Tories to get around 125 seats.

Corbyn to win in Islington.

ETA - seems the poll I saw putting Farge at 32% in clacton was a typo - and its 52% facepalm - So on that basis - ReFUk - 3 seats.

Not making any predictions for scotland and norn iron as really dont have enough knowledge.

Tweking this in light of more recent polling
LAb 38%
Tory - 24%
ReFuk - 15%
Lib Dems 11%
Greens 5%

Tories - 115 seats
ReFuk - 5 seats
Labour - loads of seats. 400?
Lib Dems - 50 seats.

Think widespread belief that labour will win big may have pushed their numbers down as its making it more appelaing for people to vote for smaller parties.

 

[The39thStep]

Labours % of the vote to be lower than Corbyn in 2017

 

[moochedit]

. Everyone on here seems to think Electoral Calculus is God but I'd be very surprised if they're right about the Tories only getting 78 seats.

Yeah i think all the seat predictions should be taken with a pinch of salt. Vote shares are probably more reliable.

 

[Bus Honeygun]

Very large, possibly massive majority of seats for Labour.

Tories about 100.

Lib Dems slightly more.

Don't really know about the SNP.

Usual handful for Plaid Cymru.

Reckon the Greens will get Bristol Central (BTW have you seen the demographic stats for that constituency on Electoral Calculus? I know Brizzle pretty well but I was still shocked by just how 'wealthy white people' it is), maybe somewhere else.

Farage to get in at Clacton. Maybe two or three other places for his shitshow (no doubt joined by some Tory defectors once the post-election wrangling starts and then offset by by-election losses when it turns out they're sex offenders or whatever).

Reckon Corbyn will get back in.

 

[kenny g]

My local polling station had far fewer of the usual army of pensioners marching inwards in couples than in previous years and more workers coming off the train. Based on this snapshot I'm hopeful.

 

[scifisam]

Labour: 341
Conservatives: 189
Lib Dems: 71
Reform: 1
Greens: 1
SNP: 20
Plaid: 4
Others: 3
NI: 18

Tweaking this, with regret, to change Reform to four, taking Labour to 340, Conservatives to 187 and the others the same.

Will be stunned if the Tories get under 100. They always get more than polled.

 

[newbie]

My local polling station had far fewer of the usual army of pensioners marching inwards in couples than in previous years and more workers coming off the train. Based on this snapshot I'm hopeful.

postal votes

 

[strung out]

Labour: 446
Conservative: 98
Liberal Democrat: 62
SNP 16
Green 3
Reform 3
Plaid 3
Speaker 1
NI 18

I can see anything over 100 seats for the Tories being spun as a success given the feared meltdown over the last few weeks with LDs being touted as the official opposition.

 

[danny la rouge]

My prediction is:

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[belboid]

My prediction is:

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That’s cheating!

 

[moochedit]

We are all going to look silly tommorow when farage is visting buckingham palace and looking smug after receiving congratulations calls from trump and putin

 

[editor]

*gazes into ball
*sees nothing so just makes it up based on tea leaves

Labour: 436
Conservative: 108
Liberal Democrat: 60
SNP 18
Green 3
Reform 6
Plaid 3
Speaker 1
NI 9

 

[SpookyFrank]

Cunts - 650

 

[Jennaonthebeach]

My local polling station had far fewer of the usual army of pensioners marching inwards in couples than in previous years and more workers coming off the train. Based on this snapshot I'm hopeful.

Maybe the pensioners all had postal votes this time.

 

[Riklet]

Tories on under 75 seats IMO. Greens might steal a few off them as well as Bristol and Brighton.

Corbyn with beat the neoliberal Labour shill but it'll be close.

Nasty Nige will def will Capton.

 

[Humberto]

Labour 364
Con 213
Lib Dem 23
SNP 13
Green 9
Reform 6
Plaid 3
NI 18

 

[moochedit]

Cunts - 650

We have a winner

 

[strung out]

NI 9

That bad in NI eh?

 

[agricola]

A Corbyn win and a Farage defeat would delight me.

 

[planetgeli]

Cunts - 650

Unfair on Zarah Sultana

 

[belboid]

NI 9

That's obviously the ones who will take their seats. So 9 for Sinn Fein then. Good man.