The 2024 General Election prediction thread - Who is the Urban 75 Ballot Box Nostradamus?

[Smokeandsteam]

Labour 43%
Tories 26%
Reform - 14%
Lib Dems - 11%
Greens - 4%


Corbyn wil lose Islington.
Reform will get 4 or 5 seats
SNP will lose 17 seats
Turnout will be lower than 2019

 

[Dogsauce]

Tories over 100, most of the cuntiest ones keep their seat as they lose less votes to reform.
Reform in double figures, their voters turn out. Becomes the election story, media play along as usual.
LD not as well as hoped, most voters not having the information to vote tactically.
Greens get nothing, squeezed by ‘normals’ piling votes in the Labour column.
SNP get fucked in Scotland.
Galloway goes in the bin.

Generally not enough schadenfreude, except Galloway.

 

[Flavour]

Labour: 412
Conservatives: 118
Lib Dems: 69
Reform: 3*
Greens: 3**
SNP: 20
Plaid: 4
Others: 3***
NI: 18

* Clacton, Boston & Segness, Ashfield.

** Bristol Central, North Herefordshire, Waveney Valley.

*** Islington North, Birmingham Ladywood, Rochdale.

more or less this, but i'd say:

LAB 408
CON 115
LIB 65
REFORM 12
GREEN 2
SNP: 18
PLAID: 4
OTHERS: 8
NI: 18

 

[redsquirrel]

Anyone going to predict a Labour vote share for the electorate that is higher than 2017?

 

[A380]

I don’t think labour will get their vote out.

Tories will get between 180 and 200 and paint it as a victory.

Reform 1 to 3

Yellow scum about 70

Green 1 or 2

I hope I’m wrong.

Also, I think Sinn Fein are struggling, down to 3 or 4.

 

[Silas Loom]

Tory expectation management is now to say that they expect 60-80 seats*, so 90-100 feels more realistic. 180-200 is taking pessimism much too far.

*Could probably find a source if I looked hard but can’t really be bothered. Probably Twitter via politicalbetting.

 

[countingtozero]

I don’t think labour will get their vote out.

Tories will get between 180 and 200 and paint it as a victory.

Reform 1 to 3

Yellow scum about 70

Green 1 or 2

I hope I’m wrong.

Also, I think Sinn Fein are struggling, down to 3 or 4.

Why do you think SF will fall to 3/4? They currently hold 7, and IMO only North Belfast and Fermanagh/South Tyrone are really in play. Don't be misled by the recent elections down south.

 

[littlebabyjesus]

Anyone going to predict a Labour vote share for the electorate that is higher than 2017?

That's a good question. I think it will be about the same, and the vote for the Tories + Refuk will be about equal to the Tory vote in 2017.

And very few people in the media will make that connection.

 

[A380]

Why do you think SF will fall to 3/4? They currently hold 7, and IMO only North Belfast and Fermanagh/South Tyrone are really in play. Don't be misled by the recent elections down south.

I think they have become ‘the establishment’ and as such have failed to deliver…and people are tired of that even in the North. Nothing more. But we will see on the 4th.

 

[Dog_Voodoo]

I’m saying nothing until 9:49pm on the 4th July.

 

[PR1Berske]

I’m saying nothing until 9:49pm on the 4th July.

Are you Professor Sir John Curtice?

 

[Dog_Voodoo]

I think it’s gonna be tighter than predicted over the last week or two. There’s a hell of a lot of don’t knows and people saying to me they won’t be voting ”they’re all the same” type things.
I’m thinking quite a few red wall Tory’s of 2019 will be voting Reform , Northerners tend to like what they see as the underdog. They got Brexit, then Johnson and co. and have had Labour for decades prior to that.
They haven’t seen much change, levelling up hasn’t happened or any prospect of the wealth promised by HS2.
My early prediction is 10 miserable fucking seats to Reform in total.
God help us.

 

[Dogsauce]

I think it’s gonna be tighter than predicted over the last week or two. There’s a hell of a lot of don’t knows and people saying to me they won’t be voting ”they’re all the same” type things.
I’m thinking quite a few red wall Tory’s of 2019 will be voting Reform , Northerners tend to like what they see as the underdog. They got Brexit, then Johnson and co. and have had Labour for decades prior to that.
They haven’t seen much change, levelling up hasn’t happened or any prospect of the wealth promised by HS2.
My early prediction is 10 miserable fucking seats to Reform in total.
God help us.

If the polling and the media keep feeding each other such that they become the best chance of stopping Labour in some seats, then they may well do quite well. Fucking clickbait-led agenda.

 

[brogdale]

Labour (41%) = 414 seats (maj = 178)
Vermin (26%) = 140 seats
LD (12%) = 45 seats
RefUK (12%) = 3 seats
Green ( 5%) = 2 seats

 

[Gaia]

Would put money on Corbyn getting in, Labour chose possibly the worst candidate to run against him.

Would put money on Farage finally getting in, although equally wouldn't be surprised if he doesn't I just have a feeling this is his chance at last unless he really doesn't want it (which is likely) and therefore doesn't quite put the work in.

Would put money on Galloway not getting back in but I know nothing about the state of the local Labour party there.

Would put money on John Sweeny not getting in.

Would put money on the Tories getting more than 150 seats and would consider taking a gamble on them getting more than 175.

Would also put money on Libdems getting 50+

I do think Clacton is Reforms only chance at a seat and that we will see some Reform votes go back to the Tories and some stay at home but will be very patchy and localised based on how wingnut or high profile the local Tory is.

I also think Labour will win back fewer of the votes it's lost in the Redwall than the actually seats won might show.

Fartage has NEVER been seriously serious about being an MP (he was MY MEP when I was in the SE - and look at how many times he was actually fucking arsed to turn up to the EU Parliament). Nige is a narcissist, it's about getting his fizzog out there - he's TERRIFIED people will forget he exists, I reckon. He is, was, and forever shall be the eternal grifter. Being an MP means you actually have to show your face a bit. He's basically the hard-right version of Galloway. Remember how they formed an unholy alliance to campaign for Brexit...? Bit like Benn and Powell in '75.

 

[BusLanes]

Numbers don't add up!

Lab - 400 seats
Tories -150
LD - 35
SNP -25
Reform -2
Greens -2
PC -3
DUP -4
SF -7
ALL - 2
SDLP -2

 

[Yata]

Labour, 360
Con, 190
Green, 3
Ref 0, farage loses clacton by 2 votes
Libs, dont know and dont care
SNP, fucked it

 

[scifisam]

Labour: 341
Conservatives: 189
Lib Dems: 71
Reform: 1
Greens: 1
SNP: 20
Plaid: 4
Others: 3
NI: 18

 

[A380]

I bet I get 100% hit rate for my prediction.

Spoiler

The Speaker: 1

 

[Ax^]

the sun backing labour ...

it going to be a blood bath

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

My prediction:-
We all loose, badly, but don't realise it straight away.

 

[Zapp Brannigan]

Rugby (my constituency) - to go comfortably Labour

Sutton Coldfield (the old family home) - Andrew Mitchell (Cons) to narrowly scrape home

Selected others:

Rees-Mogg - gone
Braverman - narrowly keeps her seat
Badenoch - keeps her seat
Jenrick - gone
Mordaunt - gone
Hunt - gone
Shapps - gone
Sunak - keeps his seat by under 2%, Binface blamed.
Galloway - loss to Labour
30p Anderson - keeps his seat, bafflingly
Farage - 8th time lucky
Corbyn - loss to Labour, sadly

 

[belboid]

Well, after looking at all the variations and possibilities, I can now make my prediction.

Labour - 40% 451 seats
Conservatives - 21% 86 seats
Libscum - 11% 69 seats
Green - 7% 3 seats
SNP 30% in Scotland/3% 16 seats
PC - <1% 3 seats
WPB - <<1% 1 seat
Independents - 2% 1 seat
Reform - 15% 3 seats
NI the rest - 18 seats, 8 of which will be SF.

Just looking at the voting figure, electoral calculus gives Labour 20 more seats (& the tories 20 fewer) but that is roughly the number I think Labour will miss out on (ones that should be within 2%) because they haven't made that big effort on election day to get the vote out, whereas the tories will do. And I just can't believe the tories will drop that low and behind the Libscum.

Reform should also bed getting 6, but they are still very local campaigns which will be affected by very local events. Clacton and Skegness & Boston will go their way. Barnsley North, which should be their best bet, won't because even Farage has disowned the candidate there and there has been a strong Labour campaign for the last five years. Ashfield is similar, tho that will all depend on how many the local indie candidate gets, which is really hard to tell. Skipton & Ripon surprises me by being the next most likely to fall, which I just find hard to believe (having grown up next door). It is inherently tory, and mostly a tory that would think themselves too good for Reform. If Labour managed to get everyone who voted for them in 2017 to vote for them again, they'd win. Sadly, they won't. Which leaves Louth in Lincolnshire. I know nothing of this seat, but the 'kippers didnt have a great history there, so it seems a bit of a longshot, but that or Ashfield will join Clacton and Skeggy, I reckon.

Galloway will narrowly win. Islington North will be incredibly close, EC has it down as the one seat where tactical voting will make the difference (the Stop Corbyn vote winning it for Labor), but I'm going for JC to scrape back.

The SNP rout will only not look too bad because it won't be as bad as the tories' rout. But it will be bad.

 

[toblerone3]

Labour 380ish
Tories 175ish
Lib Dems 40ish
SNP 30ish
PC 4ish
Greens 2ish
Reform 2ish
Others the rest-ish

Agree with this

 

[Steel Icarus]

I have a nagging fear that Reform are going to do a lot better than predicted. More than 10.

 

[marty21]

Labour 380ish
Tories 175ish
Lib Dems 40ish
SNP 30ish
PC 4ish
Greens 2ish
Reform 2ish
Others the rest-ish

I'm changing my prediction

Labour 420ish
Tories 135ish
Lib Dems 60ish
SNP 25ish
PC 4ish
Greens 2ish
Reform 2ish
Others the rest-ish

 

[Elpenor]

A dream last night said Labour had a majority of 6

Can’t decide if that was a funny outcome or not

 

[Dogsauce]

I have a nagging fear that Reform are going to do a lot better than predicted. More than 10.

That’s my gut instinct too, they’ll get the vote out, although likely don’t have the ground game infrastructure that traditionally made a difference (though other parties will have lost a lot of activists to do this, Tories through age/crushed morale and Labour through cunting off their local activists with top-down micromanagement and discarding of policies people could enthusiastically back). And the attention-grasping media will lap it up and talk of a ‘political earthquake’ for just under 20 seats or whatever.

 

[kenny g]

Not sure. I'm in Reform/Tory territory and a lot of conservative voters end up voting with their wallets. Project fear will drive them back to the Tories. I hope not as the Labour candidate is only a percentage off according to most recent poll

 

[Dogsauce]

Not sure. I'm in Reform/Tory territory and a lot of conservative voters end up voting with their wallets. Project fear will drive them back to the Tories. I hope not as the Labour candidate is only a percentage off according to most recent poll

Their wallets have taken quite a beating under the tories, and after the Truss debacle the economic competence argument has been lost. Would be crazy if they feared Labour tax but comfortable with energy company profiteering, hundreds on the mortgage etc.