The 2024 General Election prediction thread - Who is the Urban 75 Ballot Box Nostradamus?

[Flavour]

more or less this, but i'd say:

LAB 408
CON 115
LIB 65
REFORM 12
GREEN 2
SNP: 18
PLAID: 4
OTHERS: 8
NI: 18

I called it for Reform. Exit polls says 13 seats

 

[moochedit]

 

[moochedit]

I called it for Reform. Exit polls says 13 seats

We'll wait for the real results but exit polls are usually pretty accurate.

 

[two sheds]

TV people are just going to rabbit on repeating themselves for a couple of hours yet aren't they.

 

[redsquirrel]

Fucking Mandelson. Right off to bed, will get up in a bit.

 

[agricola]

We'll wait for the real results but exit polls are usually pretty accurate.

That is the one I would have a lot of doubt on, they've not got that many recognizable people (Farage, Tice, 30p).

 

[moochedit]

That is the one I would have a lot of doubt on, they've not got that many recognizable people (Farage, Tice, 30p).

Most people tick the party box and pay no attention to the local candidates name. They know reform is farages party.

Anyway we'll see how accurate it is as the real results come in.

 

[belboid]

Most people tick the party box and pay no attention to the local candidates name. They know reform is farages party.

Anyway we'll see how accurate it is as the real results come in.

the name is far bigger than the party bit. Hence Corbyn has a good chance.

 

[moochedit]

Ok i'll put my head on the block. You can laugh at my bollocks predictions later when i'm wrong

Labour win large majority (No hung parliament)
Tories lose shitloads of seats
Lib dems are not high in vote share terms but do well (for them) in seat number terms.
Farage wins. Reform do well (for them) in vote share terms but not in number of seats.
Corbyn wins.
Galloway gets a lot of votes but loses to labour.
Greens maybe 1 seat.
Snp lose a lot of seats to labour.

Think i was mostly correct (feels smug) although tbf i didn't give actual seat numbers

Anyone got seat numbers correct?

 

[moochedit]

the name is far bigger than the party bit. Hence Corbyn has a good chance.

I agree that some names (like corbyn and farage) are bigger than their party name but many local mp's are unknown to most of their voters and voters choose the party.

Anyway corbyn won

 

[PR1Berske]

My prediction was:

Lab 444
Con 97
LD 50
SNP 35
PC 3
Ref 1
Green 1
Corbyn 1
NI Parties 18

 

[chilango]

Labour: 412
Conservatives: 118
Lib Dems: 69
Reform: 3*
Greens: 3**
SNP: 20
Plaid: 4
Others: 3***
NI: 18

* Clacton, Boston & Segness, Ashfield.

** Bristol Central, North Herefordshire, Waveney Valley.

*** Islington North, Birmingham Ladywood, Rochdale.

Looks like I wasn't too far off in the main.

 

[bemused]

Much of the media saying Labour is already in trouble ... they've not even got into government yet.

 

[moochedit]

Will all but 2 seats declared...

 

[moochedit]

Much of the media saying Labour is already in trouble ... they've not even got into government yet.

Been asleep for 2 hours or so. What are they supposed to be "in trouble" about?

 

[bemused]

Been asleep for 2 hours or so. What are they supposed to be "in trouble" about?

something something vote share
something something trade unions
something something Angela

 

[bemused]

Jonathan Gullis is gone. I like to be nice about most people but he is a right cunt.

 

[The39thStep]

Labours % of the vote to be lower than Corbyn in 2017

Yay

 

[skyscraper101]

Jonathan Gullis is gone. I like to be nice about most people but he is a right cunt.

I'm so pleased about this. Another cunt of the higest magnitude gone. Today was a good day.

 

[Sasaferrato]

My prediction was:

Lab 444
Con 97
LD 50
SNP 35
PC 3
Ref 1
Green 1
Corbyn 1
NI Parties 18

You were nearly bang on for seats lost. Scotland is pretty much vermin free now.

 

[SpookyFrank]

You were nearly bang on for seats lost. Scotland is pretty much vermin free now.

Well the important thing is you've used this opportunity to magnanimously let go of your fanatical hatred for the SNP and move on with your life.

 

[Jennaonthebeach]

A Corbyn win and a Farage defeat would delight me.

Are you half delighted?

 

[danny la rouge]

I’m happy to report that the Tories polled less than 5% in each of Glasgow’s 6 seats. That’s heartening.

 

[moochedit]

I’m happy to report that the Tories polled less than 5% in each of Glasgow’s 6 seats. That’s heartening.

I'm shocked they ever got more

 

[danny la rouge]

I'm shocked they ever got more

I remember when Glasgow Cathcart had a Tory MP: Teddy Taylor.

 

[moochedit]

I remember when Glasgow Cathcart had a Tory MP: Teddy Taylor.

Tbf i don't know Glasgow. Like any city i guess it has middle class areas.

 

[Sasaferrato]

Well the important thing is you've used this opportunity to magnanimously let go of your fanatical hatred for the SNP and move on with your life.

The job has only started. We need to exterminate them at Holyrood next.

 

[BusLanes]

Numbers don't add up!

Lab - 400 seats
Tories -150
LD - 35
SNP -25
Reform -2
Greens -2
PC -3
DUP -4
SF -7
ALL - 2
SDLP -2

Hah well this wasn't close.

Lab - close.
Tories - too high by 20
LD - 2x higher than I guessed
SNP - 9 instead of my 25.

 

[kebabking]

Current wagers:

Labour will overturn a 20k majority in Wyre Forest and win the seat.

Lib Dems will get 60+ seats.

Tories will win less than 100 seats.

The Disgraced-Cunt-Führage will win in Clacton (don't like that one, but I think it's true nonetheless).

Corbyn will win Islington.

Greens will win Bristol and North Herefordshire.

Labour will hit 450 seats.

(I remain Urbans' worst political forecaster, so betting on an increased Tory majority is probably a safe way to store your money...)

Labour didn't win Wyre Forest - but we cut the Tory's majority from 20k to 800.

Tories won 121, not less than 100. 18.6% rather than 15.2%

Greens did win Bristol and N Herefordshire.

Labour didn't win 450 seats, but 411 - 63.2% rather than 69.2% of the total HoC seats.

Corbyn did win Islington.

Führage did win Clacton.

Not perfect, but more accurate that it could have been...

 

[A380]

I bet I get 100% hit rate for my prediction.

Spoiler

The Speaker: 1

https://www.lep.co.uk/news/sir-lindsay-hoyle-speaker-in-the-house-of-commons-has-retained-his-seat-4691743

Bow down before my skilz