The 2024 UK General Election - news, speculation and updates

[danny la rouge]

No. It’ll be one to watch. An SNP loss, I imagine. (Glasgow North).

 

[mx wcfc]

It’s happening here already.

The replacement Tory is clearly worried that the water company polluting our rivers is costing her votes and sending out regular messages telling us that she didn’t vote in favour of pumping sewage into chalk streams.

To which everyone just replies “oh yes you did”. And she gets even more cross.

 

[moochedit]

Somewhat surprised to have just had a Labour GE campaign leaflet delivered, and it's targeted for this village, with a quote from a local resident commenting on how the candidate, who is both a doctor and leader of Worthing Borough Council, knows the village well and the threats it faces of overdevelopment, there's additional quotes of support from a local business owner, and a GP - all very slick for the target audience.

It has always been a safe Tory seat, even in the Labour landslide of 1997 Bottomley had a majority of 7,713, but Electoral Calculus currently predicts there's 81% chance of Labour winning, so they are clearly going to throw a lot of resources into kicking the 'Father of the House' out.

View attachment 413923


So, has the campaign started where you are?

If they think they have a chance of taking it then you'll probably get loads of the bloody things

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

I suspect my MP will stand down rather than risk usurping Portillo. So no, he's not started at all.

 

[The39thStep]

Yes but our general elections are 10th March

 

[chilango]

Had a hilarious one from the Tories yesterday.

They never, ever, leaflet here.

It was 8 A4 pages, zero Conservative branding anywhere.

...and best of all, it was delivered in the wrong constituency! I'm in Reading Central, this was for Earley & Woodley a neighboring constituency.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

Had a hilarious one from the Tories yesterday.

They never, ever, leaflet here.

It was 8 A4 pages, zero Conservative branding anywhere.

...and best of, it was delivered in the wrong constituency! I'm in Reading Central, this was for Earley & Woodley a neighboring constituency.

Bung it in an envelope and post it to Earley's offices with no stamp on.

 

[MickiQ]

No we've had nothing at all
mine is Derbyshire South which I've always had marked down as safe Tory but electoral calculus reckons there is a 3 in 4 chance Labour will take it.



The biggest threat to Labour winning is the fact that I will be voting for them so possibly might put the hex on them given my track record.

 

[rubbershoes]

Nothing yet. We're the place where the Tory researched tractors too eagerly in the Commons and resigned, to be replaced by the first non Tory MP for decades.

To avoid that happening again, the constituency has been shut and cut with some neighbouring ones. I don't know which constituency I'll be in come election time

 

[danny la rouge]

No. It’ll be one to watch. An SNP loss, I imagine. (Glasgow North).

Much more certain to be an SNP loss than I’d realised.

 

[cupid_stunt]

I don't know which constituency I'll be in come election time

If you pop your postcode into this, it should tell you -

Interactive Seat Map

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk

 

[brogdale]

Hi editor - maybe time to merge the 3 (or more?) GE24 threads running on the 1st page?
Cheers

 

[MickiQ]

Nothing yet. We're the place where the Tory researched tractors too eagerly in the Commons and resigned, to be replaced by the first non Tory MP for decades.

To avoid that happening again, the constituency has been shut and cut with some neighbouring ones. I don't know which constituency I'll be in come election time

Took me a while to remember that one

 

[cupid_stunt]

Hi editor - maybe time to merge the 3 (or more?) GE24 threads running on the 1st page?
Cheers

No!

The one I've just started is specifically about campaigning at a local level, and not like the two that are more general, that could perhaps be merged.

 

[QueenOfGoths]

Yes, the LibDems have been out. There is an outside chance that Theresa May will be ousted but it's unlikely, however having taken control of the local council at the last local government elections they are, as they said to be, actively seeking people to vote tactically to get the Tories out.

 

[brogdale]

No!

The one I've just started is specifically about campaigning at a local level, and not like the two that are more general, that could perhaps be merged.

OK

 

[StoneRoad]

Hexham is supposedly a very safe tory seat. Certainly has been so, speaking historically.
Allthough it is now predicted to swing to Labour, 92% chance of victory ...

New Seat Details - Hexham

 

[kebabking]

Took me a while to remember that one

Yeah, 'disgraced pervert Tory MP' isn't quite the unique marker you'd hope it would be....

 

[editor]

*mega General Election thread created from three-way mergin' like a pro.

 

[cupid_stunt]

*mega General Election thread created from three-way mergin' like a pro.

Well, that's fucked the one specifically about campaigning at a local level.

 

[Orang Utan]

Much as I think that the current government is well past its 'sell by' date, nothing that Starmer has uttered would make me be inclined to vote Labour.

It is a policy vacuum.

About the only concrete proposal they have made, today they backtracked from.

Labour postpones £28bn green plan as it seeks to be trusted on public finances

Rachel Reeves says fiscal rule is priority as she delays start of promised investment in eco-friendly industry

www.theguardian.com

Starmer doesn't seem to realise that he needs to do more than being 'not a Conservative'.

At least you can vote for SNP, spare a thought for the English

 

[editor]

Well, that's fucked the one specifically about campaigning at a local level.

Blame the people who asked me to merge the facking things.

 

[Sasaferrato]

At least you can vote for SNP, spare a thought for the English

To quote the magnificent Danny DeVito 'I would sooner stick red hot needles...'.

 

[rubbershoes]

If you pop your postcode into this, it should tell you -

Interactive Seat Map

www.electoralcalculus.co.uk

Looks like I'll be back to having a fucking Tory again.

 

[Sasaferrato]

No. It’ll be one to watch. An SNP loss, I imagine. (Glasgow North).

The polls are predicting a loss of 30 seats or so for the SNP, and I wouldn't expect them to fare well in the next Scottish elections.

 

[Puddy_Tat]

So, has the campaign started where you are?

yes (wokingham constituency)

fairly regular flow of bumf from the lib dems, and have had local LD councillor come round to the door a few weeks ago (cat from downstairs was outside at the time and heckled a lot)

think i've had one communication through the door from the vermin, sod all from anyone else

labour finished third here last time, most of the labour-ish areas (based on council wards) have been moved in to the new woodley / earley constituency, which labour are targeting, and a chunk of tory maidenhead has been moved in to this constituency - lib dems hopes seem to be that some of the tories who have been brought in to the constituency are not at all keen on the john redwood / far right sort of tory.

electoral calculus seem to make it an even safer tory seat after the gerrymandering -

 

[Chz]

yes (wokingham constituency)

fairly regular flow of bumf from the lib dems, and have had local LD councillor come round to the door a few weeks ago (cat from downstairs was outside at the time and heckled a lot)

think i've had one communication through the door from the vermin, sod all from anyone else

labour finished third here last time, most of the labour-ish areas (based on council wards) have been moved in to the new woodley / earley constituency, which labour are targeting, and a chunk of tory maidenhead has been moved in to this constituency - lib dems hopes seem to be that some of the tories who have been brought in to the constituency are not at all keen on the john redwood / far right sort of tory.

electoral calculus seem to make it an even safer tory seat after the gerrymandering -

View attachment 413939

While I get that Sir Keir is pretty uninspiring, I still find it amazing that there's anywhere in the entire country where 1 in 3 people look at the current state of things and say "Yes, sir. More, sir."

 

[kabbes]

Fucking hell, this is seismic



I don’t think this (admittedly reboundaried) constituency has ever been anything by Tory. It’s considered about a safe a seat as there is. You can see that in 2019, they got 54% of the vote, and that was considered a bad year for them. No wonder the Liberals have gone into leafleting overdrive round these parts!

Even more shocking than the 40% chance that the Liberals will win is the 20% chance that Labour will. Labour get nowhere around these parts. I think one year they didn’t even get their deposit back.

If the Tories are losing in Mole Valley (now Dorking and Horley), literally no seat is safe for them.

I mean, look at the demographics. How can this not be Tory?

 

[PTK]

Fucking hell, this is seismic

View attachment 413946

I don’t think this (admittedly reboundaried) constituency has ever been anything by Tory. It’s considered about a safe a seat as there is. You can see that in 2019, they got 54% of the vote, and that was considered a bad year for them. No wonder the Liberals have gone into leafleting overdrive round these parts!

Even more shocking than the 40% chance that the Liberals will win is the 20% chance that Labour will. Labour get nowhere around these parts. I think one year they didn’t even get their deposit back.

If the Tories are losing in Mole Valley (now Dorking and Horley), literally no seat is safe for them.

I mean, look at the demographics. How can this not be Tory?

View attachment 413945

What is an "implied MP"?
What is an "implied turnout"?

 

[kabbes]

What is an "implied MP"?
What is an "implied turnout"?

I think it might be because it’s a new seat after the boundaries have been redrawn. So they’re taking the existing MP and turnout as implied from the combined results last time.