There seems to be a confusion of “predicted percentage” with “chance of winning”.
It seems to me that, even if all the constituencies were the same as last time, there could be no test of the accuracy of a probability claim with respect to one constituency.
To say that there is a 40% probability of an outcome of an event means that, if the event were to occur 100 times, then that outcome would arise 40 times. Each general election in a constituency is a unique event. It cannot occur again.
Flipping a coin is not a unique event. The conditions that give rise to the event can be identical. Flipping a coin is an event that can be reproduced indefinitely.
Each general election in a constituency, even if the boundaries are unchanged, is unique. We cannot examine 100 general elections in a constituency, and observe that 40 of them are won by the Liberal Democrats, because the events are not identical.
We can never prove that the Liberal Democrats have a 40% chance is a particular constituency, because we can never observe a particular general election in that constituency more than once. That conditions that give rise to the event that is a general election result in that constituency can never be repeated.