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The 2024 UK General Election - news, speculation and updates

From the Independent (behind a paywall)

Tory party strategists are privately planning for two general elections in quick succession amid a growing belief that the first result could be tighter than national opinion polls suggest, i has been told.

While the Conservatives’ prevailing opinion is that Labour is on course to secure a victory, senior Tories still believe the tide can be turned before the next election to drastically reduce the size of its majority.

The view has prompted party bigwigs to order briefing papers to be drawn up on the 1950/1951 and 1974 general elections, when the country was forced to hold two national polls within a short period.

The move suggests that the Tories are resigned to potentially losing the next election but by a smaller margin than current polls suggest, and that they believe Labour could call a second election soon after to try and secure a working majority.

In October 1951, the Tories secured a victory under Sir Winston Churchill, having been narrowly beaten by Clement Attlee’s Labour 20 months previously. In February 1950, Attlee’s government held a slim, five-seat majority, prompting the then prime minister to call a snap election, which he then lost, despite winning the popular vote.

In 1974 two elections were held in the same year after Harold Wilson formed a Labour minority government following an election in February that year, which he then converted into a slim, three-seat majority in the subsequent October.

A senior Tory source told i: “Central office is doing some work on the ’74 and ’51 elections, when they held two elections. There’s a belief that something like that could happen.”

The Conservatives lagging behind Labour by around 22 points according to many opinion polls – the biggest gap since polling began for a governing party in an election year. But an exclusive poll for i this weekend showed the Labour lead had narrowed from 17 to 15 points and figures within CCHQ believe the party can dramatically reduce Tory losses by coaxing back disaffected voters in the belief they will be turned off by Keir Starmer as they see more of him.

A senior backbencher told i: “Our internal polling shows things are a lot tighter in some areas than the national surveys show. In some “Red Wall” seats we’re only three points behind and on average we’re only 10 points behind.

“The more people see Starmer, the less likely they’ll want to bet their houses on him running the country. The big problem we have is getting Conservatives to vote for us. We have to throw the kitchen sink at getting those voters who would ordinarily vote for us to turn out for us come polling day.”

Asked if Labour was preparing for a double election a party spokesperson said: “We’ll take what’s thrown at us and will go into any election with our positive alternative to 14 years of Tory failure. Keir’s changed Labour Party is ready to change the country.”

Rishi Sunak is still working towards holding an election in “the second half of the year” as he pins his hopes on an improved economic picture and potential flights taking off to Rwanda providing him with a much needed boost before polling day.

“The Prime Minister has made clear his working assumption and that hasn’t changed,” a senior Tory source said.


Several factors could shift Mr Sunak’s thinking, however, including pressure from his own MPs should, as is expected, he suffer further defeats in the upcoming Kingswood and Wellingborough by-elections. The continuing plot from right-wing factions in his party to oust him, could also force his hand.

Time is running out if Mr Sunak is planning to hold an election on the same day as the local elections on 2 May. There must be 25 working days to prepare for a UK election, meaning the latest Mr Sunak could call a poll would be the 26 March.

This would still give the Prime Minister time to deliver the Budget on 6 March that could include a raft of retail giveaways before going to the country for re-election.

But warnings this week from Jeremy Hunt that the economy is still too weak to deliver big tax cuts in the forthcoming Budget, suggests Downing Street is willing to wait until later in the year to go to the polls with potentially another fiscal statement planned to deliver voters with tax cuts.

According to insiders, the Conservatives are currently still working to an 80:20 strategy, where it will seek to defend 80 of its closest marginal seats, while fighting to secure a further 20 constituencies. However, i understands that this plan is due to be reshaped but the party is waiting for certain seats to be redesigned following the boundary changes.

The potential change in strategy has sparked concern among Tory MPs, who fear they may lose their seats. On one of the Tories’ Whatsapp groups, called “Opposition Watch”, several MPs have started to voice their concerns about the increase in campaigning by opposition parties in their constituencies.

One MP told i: “There are people going crazy on there. They’re getting all upset because the other parties are saying they’ve not done this or that. They need to grow up. Jill Mortimer [the MP for Hartlepool] is worried because she’s got Richard Tice [the leader of Reform] threatening to stand in her seat and he’ll end up splitting her vote. They all want extra support from the party. People don’t like being told that they are not going to win.”

There are also doubts that the party will be able to convince voters that have yet to decide how they will vote to switch back to the Tories.

Another backbencher told i: “The party always says their internal polling doesn’t look as bad as external polls. They’re banking on the 30 per cent of undecideds coming back to us.”

But Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said its research suggested there was not likely to be that kind of move back to the Tories.

“According to our polling, the undecideds are definitely more likely to have voted Conservative in 2019. But there is now a reason why not all of them are voting Tory this time round, be it Partygate, Brexit is over, Corbyn is gone and they find Starmer more palatable,” Mr Hopkins said.

“Our most recent poll showed about 16 per cent direct switchers [from Tory to Labour], 15 per cent would go to Reform and 8 per cent were undecided.”

Topics
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re a new Corbyn vehicle hearing that has become less likely but some kind of coalition of independents is brewing maybe?
Kaka Tim said:
Interesting article from John Harris on RefUKs influence on the tories and politics generally - highlighting how they are aboslutely gunning for the tories this time round.

www.theguardian.com

Who’s steering the Conservatives to the right? The backseat drivers of Reform UK | John Harris

As the Wellingborough byelection approaches, the one-time architects of Brexit are revelling in power without responsibility, says Guardian columnist John Harris
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com
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“The reason I joined Reform UK,” he concluded, “was to obliterate the Conservative party.
ha ha
good luck to them
 
ska invita said:
re a new Corbyn vehicle hearing that has become less likely but some kind of coalition of independents is brewing maybe?
Click to expand...

If Starmer had any sense he'd have kept more of his discontended lefty MP's in the party and let them exhaust themselves trying to oppose the mindless grey goo of the blairite faction. Instead he has kicked them out on mostly spurious grounds and now has them all outside the tent pissing in. Many lefty MP's have a lot of local traction and personal popularity as well, and Starmer has nothing but parachuted-in nothing people to field against them if they choose to run as independents.
 
SpookyFrank said:
If Starmer had any sense he'd have kept more of his discontended lefty MP's in the party and let them exhaust themselves trying to oppose the mindless grey goo of the blairite faction. Instead he has kicked them out on mostly spurious grounds and now has them all outside the tent pissing in. Many lefty MP's have a lot of local traction and personal popularity as well, and Starmer has nothing but parachuted-in nothing people to field against them if they choose to run as independents.
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yes, but then again he is cementing things for the future and apparently is winning as he goes so frankly who are we to criticise the great man
 
SpookyFrank said:
If Starmer had any sense he'd have kept more of his discontended lefty MP's in the party and let them exhaust themselves trying to oppose the mindless grey goo of the blairite faction. Instead he has kicked them out on mostly spurious grounds and now has them all outside the tent pissing in. Many lefty MP's have a lot of local traction and personal popularity as well, and Starmer has nothing but parachuted-in nothing people to field against them if they choose to run as independents.
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On a purely electoral basis, it is similar to what Johnson and Cummings did prior to 2019, chucking out Hammond, Green, etc.
 
Interesting to see that the LP machine is so concerned about complacency that they're prepared to make this private polling analysis public:

1708255095825.png
Obviously to be taken with several pinches of salt because this is being used to shake up party complacency, but interesting to see that they feel that the majority hinges on Reform not collapsing like minor parties tend to.
 
At time of print, there's very little to suggest the Reform vote will return to the fold. Stealing more votes from the Tories seems the more likely option. But hey, anything can change. Just because they've got it almost locked up doesn't mean they shouldn't be concerned about how lukewarm the public is to Starmer.
 
Reform are crowing about Two third places in the by-elections last week. I think they've hit a peak , if they can't get a higher vote in 2 low turnout by-elections, then they stand no chance at the big show.
 
marty21 said:
Reform are crowing about Two third places in the by-elections last week. I think they've hit a peak , if they can't get a higher vote in 2 low turnout by-elections, then they stand no chance at the big show.
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10/13 seems low given the attention they got nationally during campaign and their resources
 
marty21 said:
Reform are crowing about Two third places in the by-elections last week. I think they've hit a peak , if they can't get a higher vote in 2 low turnout by-elections, then they stand no chance at the big show.
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Agree they may have peaked, but I don't think that LP 'private' analysis rests on the chances of them taking any seats, merely the votes they can take from the vermin in L-C marginals.
 
BusLanes said:
10/13 seems low given the attention they got nationally during campaign and their resources
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You can’t estimate their ceiling based on pre-Brexit UKIP’s, though.

The repeatedly-punch-yourself-in-the face-party is always going to lose some support after everyone has a broken nose.
 
I don't see them taking more than 1 or 2 seats at the GE - I don't even see that, but precise predictions and politics are not a profitable combination - their impact is twofold: how many tight seats the Tories lose to labour because a relatively small number of 2017/19 Tories vote for them instead, and and how many of the dwindling number of non-headbanger Tory voters are alienated into either not voting, or voting Lab or LD, by the Tory party's increasingly shrill attempts to chase the Reform/UKIP/Brexit/this-weeks-Falange/KGB-vehicle....
 
One aspect of the general election not focussed on so much: nearly 100 MPs have chosen not to stand. See this image.

 
brogdale said:
Setting aside that these "headroom"s or "leeway"s are concocted, fictional numbers based on arbitrary, consolidator state, fiscal "rules"...isn't it noticeable how that £16.7 is never there for the NHS/Social-Care. Schools/Council services etc.


View attachment 413015
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I read this earlier when it included a chart that showed that every January this happens. So you have to wonder why this is "news" at all. Even the Guardian is doing the Tories PR for them now.
 
As good as any place to put this. Here are all the MPs currently sitting as independent, none of whom elected as such.



Diane Abbott (Lab) - lost whip 23/4/23
Lee Anderson (C) - lost whip 24/2/24
Scott Benton (C) - lost whip 5/4/23
Crispin Blunt (C) - lost whip 25/10/23
Andrew Bridgen (C) - lost whip 11/1/23. Joined Reclaim for a time, but now Independent again.
Nick Brown (Lab) - lost whip 7/9/22
Lisa Cameron (SNP) - defected to the Conservatives 12/10/23
Bambos Charalambous (Lab) - lost whip 9/6/23
Jeremy Corbyn (Lab) - lost whip 30/10/20
Geraint Davies (Lab) - lost whip 1/6/23
Matt Hancock (C) - lost whip 1/11/22
Neale Hanvey (SNP) - lost whip on arrival at Westminster after being disowned as candidate, whip subsequently restored but defected to Alba 28/3/21
Julian Knight (C) - lost whip 8/12/22
Kenny MacAskill (SNP) - defected to Alba 27/3/21
Andy McDonald (Lab) - lost whip 30/10/23
Conor McGinn (Lab) - lost whip 7/12/22
Angus McNeil (SNP) - lost whip 5/7/23. Expelled from the SNP 11/8/23
Kate Osamor (Lab) - lost whip 28/1/24
Rob Roberts (C) - lost whip 25/5/21
Christian Wakeford (C) - defected to Labour 19/1/22
Claudia Webbe (Lab) - lost whip 28/9/20. Expelled from the Labour Party 4/11/21
 
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