Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
An easy triumph
The 2024 UK General Election - news, speculation and updates
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Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
They always do until they're offered a sniff of power
planetgeli
There's no future in England's dreaming
They will be part of an anti-Labour coalition quicker than anyone can remember the name of their leader.
Though in the circumstances, I couldn't give less fucks.
Puddy_Tat
naturally fluffy
except in seats where they put out 'the tories can't win here, vote for us if you don't like labour' leaflets...
Silas Loom
Man with glasses
Have they done that since Starmer took over? Genuine question.
Puddy_Tat
naturally fluffy
can't say i've seen any recently. i'm in a tory held, LD target seat, so get the 'labour can't win here' version
MickiQ
In My Defence I was left Unsupervised
Wherever they can my friend, they're not proud.
hitmouse
music obfuscation technology
I dunno, but unless I've missed something there's not been a general election since Starmer took over so hard to get a proper sample?
Puddy_Tat
naturally fluffy
they have been bombarding me with bumf fairly regularly over the last year - they seem quite enthusiastic about this seat (although my understanding is it's become more of a safe tory seat since it got gerrymandered)
Silas Loom
Man with glasses
There have been a fair few by-elections. Five were Labour holds, so that’s not a bad sample to see how the dogslayers are behaving.
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Winning (T)here!
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
PR1Berske
Alligator in chains by the park gates.
I chose "goldenrod" for the SNP colour hoping it was accurate and easy to read against the very pale U75 background.
This is yellow which appears to be illegible on my screen at least. I suspect there's not many reasons to find an accurate colour for the LDs around here in any case
hitmouse
music obfuscation technology
See, that makes sense, but from my extensive wikipedia research it looks like, of the three, East Dun is a new constituency being created by cutting bits off three SNP ones, so fair enough to call that SNP, but seems like CS&ER and NE Fife both have LD incumbents?I chose "goldenrod" for the SNP colour hoping it was accurate and easy to read against the very pale U75 background.
This is yellow which appears to be illegible on my screen at least. I suspect there's not many reasons to find an accurate colour for the LDs around here in any case
PR1Berske
Alligator in chains by the park gates.
Under boundary changes they've been officially classed as SNP held. Ditto Westmorland in Cumbria, held by Tim Farron. Happens sometimes, it's why some MPs 'rat run' to other seats if their own doesn't look safe any more.
moochedit
I'm not feeding seagulls
Looks fine in dark mode.
steveo87
22/11/2022 - got a maths joke.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
sunak now polling as badly as Truss just before she got the heave ho.
Difference is they are now bleeding votes to refuk. Conventional wisdom says a chunk of those votes will drift back to the tories come election time - but im not sure that wil happen on the same scale as it did with UKIP in previous elections, especailly if farage floats back up the political u-bend to head up the refuckers. They wont be standing down in tory seats now but fighting them (are they looking to admininister a fatal blow that allows them to takeover the tories?). Basically this government is hated and despised by all sides and is falling apart in front of our eyes. Tearing lumps out of each other other fucking Rwanda whilst the NHS and public services are falling apart, the economy stuggling to get out of the toilet - and the damage from Johnsons shitty brexit deal really strating to reveal itself and bite.
They really need to just fuck off now.
Difference is they are now bleeding votes to refuk. Conventional wisdom says a chunk of those votes will drift back to the tories come election time - but im not sure that wil happen on the same scale as it did with UKIP in previous elections, especailly if farage floats back up the political u-bend to head up the refuckers. They wont be standing down in tory seats now but fighting them (are they looking to admininister a fatal blow that allows them to takeover the tories?). Basically this government is hated and despised by all sides and is falling apart in front of our eyes. Tearing lumps out of each other other fucking Rwanda whilst the NHS and public services are falling apart, the economy stuggling to get out of the toilet - and the damage from Johnsons shitty brexit deal really strating to reveal itself and bite.
They really need to just fuck off now.
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Cloo
Banana for scale
So, our local MP Mike Freer is standing down from Finchley and Golders Green - this guarantees a Labour win. It's not been a totally safe Tory seat for some time now, but Freer has been a well-liked local MP which has probably kept him in (and Lib Dems splitting the vote due to Corbyn last time), so no way will the Tories find someone who can hold the seat, especially against Sackman.
Ostensibly this is because of threats he's received, but I'm also sure he knows his goose is cooked anyway on the electoral front.
Ostensibly this is because of threats he's received, but I'm also sure he knows his goose is cooked anyway on the electoral front.
Karl Masks
Birds Angel Delight
dAILY MAIL says its threats over the Israel situation, but also says he's had threats for a decade. Clearly not solely due to Israel or at least the current crisis.
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
with the greens standing in every constituency in e&w I migh have something that counts as left of labour on the sheet, sort of, a bit. This labour anyhoo. It'll still be c&b from me. Just be interested to see if hollobones majority takes a whack this time round. Not sure whats up with wellingboro, presumably a hold for Peter Bone's gf? But she hasn't won the by election yet so who can say.
I too recon that the reform lot will vote tory come the day. Like the last right of tory outfit did. A bit like how tory rebellions in prlmnt usually talk big then fold.
I too recon that the reform lot will vote tory come the day. Like the last right of tory outfit did. A bit like how tory rebellions in prlmnt usually talk big then fold.
Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
Think this is the main factor that will make the differnace between a smallish labour majority and the tories suffering a 1997 meltdown (or worse).
Im not sure - in 2019 the Brexit Party did not contest seats with pro-brexit tories. In 2010 Cameron headed off the UKIPers by promising a referendum. This time REFUK staniding everywhere and very much have an agenda of pushing the tories to the right. Going by comments on the spectator facebook (AKA "Gammon Chat" ) they despise sunak as an inept, globalist puppet of the WEF, a socailist and not different to starmer etc etc . Think there is definite feeling that the toires getting utterlly stuffed will be a good thing as it will mean the sunak/cameron/hunt "establishemnt traitors" will be turfed out or sidelined and the swivel eyed will be able to install one of their own ( braverman/badenoch/farage even) to lead them to glory.
Also not all of that REFUK polling are ex-tories - some of them are ex-labour.
Yes - a chunk of what refuk are currently polling (about 10%) will got back to the tories - but possibly not on the scale of previous elections.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
perhaps you could point me to this pledge https://general-election-2010.co.uk...ifestos/Conservative-Party-Manifesto-2010.pdf (see p. 113-4). seems to me cameron promised a referendum on a future european treaty, not on membership. is this what you meant?
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
Electoral Calculus prediction rec'd today ...
Labour's lead strengthened to around 20pc over the Conservatives in January, and they have also edged ahead of the SNP in Scotland. And Reform UK have overtaken the Liberal Democrats to be the third most popular GB party. But Reform are not yet likely to win any seats, and Labour is set for a landslide majority.
Could be "interesting" in my local area - used to be an excessively safe tory seat.
It now needs a relatively small swing to be snatched by labour.
Prediction: Con 126, Lab 453, Lib Dem 31, SNP 18, Labour majority of 256
Labour's lead strengthened to around 20pc over the Conservatives in January, and they have also edged ahead of the SNP in Scotland. And Reform UK have overtaken the Liberal Democrats to be the third most popular GB party. But Reform are not yet likely to win any seats, and Labour is set for a landslide majority.
Could be "interesting" in my local area - used to be an excessively safe tory seat.
It now needs a relatively small swing to be snatched by labour.
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Kaka Tim
Half Arsed and Slapdash till I Die
Sorry - my bad. 2015 election. It spiked UKIPs guns and won them a majority.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
yeh but let's see how things look when we actually have an election date. maybe the country couldn't take another 5 years of sunak. but they'll still get tories if shammer gets in
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