Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
An easy triumphAre the Lib Dems planning to take three seats off the Lib Dems?
An easy triumphAre the Lib Dems planning to take three seats off the Lib Dems?
They always do until they're offered a sniff of powerIf the alternative was to prop up a minority Conservative one, then of course they would. Maybe confidence and supply rather than another finger-burning coalition, and maybe they would push harder for STV this time round, but it’s clear that the LDs identify as part of the anti-Tory coalition.
Will they prop up a minority Labour government, do you reckon?
but it’s clear that the LDs identify as part of the anti-Tory coalition
except in seats where they put out 'the tories can't win here, vote for us if you don't like labour' leaflets...
Have they done that since Starmer took over? Genuine question.
Wherever they can my friend, they're not proud.Are the Lib Dems planning to take three seats off the Lib Dems?
I dunno, but unless I've missed something there's not been a general election since Starmer took over so hard to get a proper sample?Have they done that since Starmer took over? Genuine question.
I dunno, but unless I've missed something there's not been a general election since Starmer took over so hard to get a proper sample?
I dunno, but unless I've missed something there's not been a general election since Starmer took over so hard to get a proper sample?
Winning (T)here!An easy triumph
They're whining everywhereWinning (T)here!
I chose "goldenrod" for the SNP colour hoping it was accurate and easy to read against the very pale U75 background.Are the Lib Dems planning to take three seats off the Lib Dems?
See, that makes sense, but from my extensive wikipedia research it looks like, of the three, East Dun is a new constituency being created by cutting bits off three SNP ones, so fair enough to call that SNP, but seems like CS&ER and NE Fife both have LD incumbents?I chose "goldenrod" for the SNP colour hoping it was accurate and easy to read against the very pale U75 background.
This is yellow which appears to be illegible on my screen at least. I suspect there's not many reasons to find an accurate colour for the LDs around here in any case
Under boundary changes they've been officially classed as SNP held. Ditto Westmorland in Cumbria, held by Tim Farron. Happens sometimes, it's why some MPs 'rat run' to other seats if their own doesn't look safe any more.
This is yellow which appears to be illegible on my screen at least.
dAILY MAIL says its threats over the Israel situation, but also says he's had threats for a decade. Clearly not solely due to Israel or at least the current crisis.So, our local MP Mike Freer is standing down from Finchley and Golders Green - this guarantees a Labour win. It's not been a totally safe Tory seat for some time now, but Freer has been a well-liked local MP which has probably kept him in (and Lib Dems splitting the vote due to Corbyn last time), so no way will the Tories find someone who can hold the seat, especially against Sackman.
Ostensibly this is because of threats he's received, but I'm also sure he knows his goose is cooked anyway on the electoral front.
I too recon that the reform lot will vote tory come the day. Like the last right of tory outfit did. A bit like how tory rebellions in prlmnt usually talk big then fold.
perhaps you could point me to this pledge https://general-election-2010.co.uk...ifestos/Conservative-Party-Manifesto-2010.pdf (see p. 113-4). seems to me cameron promised a referendum on a future european treaty, not on membership. is this what you meant?Think this is the main factor that will make the differnace between a smallish labour majority and the tories suffering a 1997 meltdown (or worse).
Im not sure - in 2019 the Brexit Party did not contest seats with pro-brexit tories. In 2010 Cameron headed off the UKIPers by promising a referendum. This time REFUK staniding everywhere and very much have an agenda of pushing the tories to the right. Going by comments on the spectator facebook (AKA "Gammon Chat" ) they despise sunak as an inept, globalist puppet of the WEF, a socailist and not different to starmer etc etc . Think there is definite feeling that the toires getting utterlly stuffed will be a good thing as it will mean the sunak/cameron/hunt "establishemnt traitors" will be turfed out or sidelined and the swivel eyed will be able to install one of their own ( braverman/badenoch/farage even) to lead them to glory.
Also not all of that REFUK polling are ex-tories - some of them are ex-labour.
Yes - a chunk of what refuk are currently polling (about 10%) will got back to the tories - but possibly not on the scale of previous elections.
perhaps you could point me to this pledge https://general-election-2010.co.uk...ifestos/Conservative-Party-Manifesto-2010.pdf (see p. 113-4). seems to me cameron promised a referendum on a future european treaty, not on membership. is this what you meant?
yeh but let's see how things look when we actually have an election date. maybe the country couldn't take another 5 years of sunak. but they'll still get tories if shammer gets inElectoral Calculus prediction rec'd today ...
Prediction: Con 126, Lab 453, Lib Dem 31, SNP 18, Labour majority of 256
Labour's lead strengthened to around 20pc over the Conservatives in January, and they have also edged ahead of the SNP in Scotland. And Reform UK have overtaken the Liberal Democrats to be the third most popular GB party. But Reform are not yet likely to win any seats, and Labour is set for a landslide majority.
Could be "interesting" in my local area - used to be an excessively safe tory seat.
It now needs a relatively small swing to be snatched by labour.