Raheem
Well-Known Member
Or voluntarily give up his magic powers, surely?
The 2024 UK General Election - news, speculation and updates
- Thread starter chilango
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The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Keen footballer as well
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
That’s me, with the white boot on.
Nine Bob Note
Self-Isolating before it was fashionable
Fuck, looks like he's a keeper.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Apparently likes to play midfield ( in 5 a side!).
tim
EXPLODED TIM! (Help me!!!)
Jeremy voluntarily gave me some of his magic powder. It had no effect on me. Perhaps, I should have sprinkled it on my allotment.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
PR1Berske
Alligator in chains by the park gates.
Labour targets based on PA Notional results (new boundaries)
| New constituency | Notionally held by | Notional lead |
| Burnley | Conservative | 0.27 |
| Leigh and Atherton | Conservative | 0.66 |
| High Peak | Conservative | 1.09 |
| Bangor Aberconwy | Conservative | 1.55 |
| Wolverhampton West | Conservative | 1.83 |
| Bury South | Conservative | 1.88 |
| Bury North | Conservative | 2.4 |
| Bolton North East | Conservative | 2.56 |
| Watford | Conservative | 2.69 |
| Chingford and Woodford Green | Conservative | 2.94 |
| Wycombe | Conservative | 3.19 |
| Birmingham Northfield | Conservative | 3.38 |
| Leeds North West | Conservative | 3.59 |
| Stroud | Conservative | 4.09 |
| Keighley and Ilkley | Conservative | 4.22 |
| Stoke-on-Trent Central | Conservative | 4.22 |
| Whitehaven and Workington | Conservatives | 4.34 |
| Lothian East | SNP | 4.35 |
| Gedling | Conservative | 4.45 |
| Walsall and Bloxwich | Conservative | 4.79 |
planetgeli
There's no future in England's dreaming
With respect, that's a fairly pointless list. It's just a top 20. With the new boundary changes Labour needs a record 12.7% swing and a net gain of 125 seats.
All of which is unsurprisingly feasible, even with Starmer.
PR1Berske
Alligator in chains by the park gates.
Enjoy
New boundaries - statistics and table thread | Vote UK Forum
The Labour target list on the BBC/ITN/Sky News/PA News notional figures RankConstituencyHeld byLab place†Lab behind %Maj. ††
Raheem
Well-Known Member
You could say that, but it's not like we really have a choice.
belboid
Exasperated, not angry.
The boundary changes only give the tories an extra 7 seats, according to John Curtis. They’re not that important
Silas Loom
Man with glasses
Seven based on 2019 voting or on current voting intentions?
planetgeli
There's no future in England's dreaming
Based on 2019 voting. And belboid my point was not about boundary changes. I just factored that in to what Labour now need. The increase, produced by the changes, raises the swing from 12 to 12.7%
PR1Berske
Alligator in chains by the park gates.
In the spirit of openness the 20 LibDem targets are, coloured by incumbent:
Carshalton and Wallington
North East Fife
Wimbledon
Sheffield Hallam
South Cambridgeshire
Cheltenham
Mid Dunbartonshire
Cheadle
Eastbourne
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
Esher and Walton
Guildford
Lewes
Hazel Grove
Westmorland and Lonsdale
St Ives
Finchley and Golders Green
Cities of London and Westminster
Winchester
Taunton and Wellington
Carshalton and Wallington
North East Fife
Wimbledon
Sheffield Hallam
South Cambridgeshire
Cheltenham
Mid Dunbartonshire
Cheadle
Eastbourne
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
Esher and Walton
Guildford
Lewes
Hazel Grove
Westmorland and Lonsdale
St Ives
Finchley and Golders Green
Cities of London and Westminster
Winchester
Taunton and Wellington
Chz
Stark Raving Sane
Reckon they'll get the first one. It was very tight last time, and the rookie Tory MP doesn't have the public face skills of the guy he replaced. It's not essential to be out and seen in a lot of seats, but when you get in by a gnat's crochet over someone who was known for it you have to put the effort in. At least he stopped the web polls that were just data mining exercises after enough people complained. (and I think he has a punchable face, but that's just me)
That said, a big enough swing to Labour from LD voters could save him.
That said, a big enough swing to Labour from LD voters could save him.
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Cloo
Banana for scale
Just got a leaflet for Labour candidate (Finchley and Golders Green), Sarah Sackman. They have done a smart thing getting a Jewish candidate well known in the area, and they have quoted three locals, one of whom is an Israeli lady we know well and everyone locally, Jewish or not seems to know - and she is saying she voted Lib Dem last election but feels Labour have changed and she can trust them. Very well played, as this sends a message to Jewish voters and maybe to people who want to vote Labour but perhaps are hesitant about whether their Jewish neighbours are still unhappy with the Labour party.
Dom Traynor
Tino Pai
Has Sarah run before? I definately know her but can't think where from and Google doesn't say much apart from her being a barrister at Matrix.
Silas Loom
Man with glasses
N=2, but it’s worked on the inlaws, who will be voting Sackman.
Cloo
Banana for scale
Chz
Stark Raving Sane
They've been doing well at the council level, fingers crossed, but I've never seen one of them campaigning for Parliament. I doubt it's worth throwing much money into, and they only sometimes find someone local who can campaign in their spare time. They peaked at 18% for all time, if you discount 1997.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
I don’t think they need to ‘target’ those, they’re probably in the bag already. It’s the ones further down the list they need to hit.
PR1Berske
Alligator in chains by the park gates.
Agreed.
Full list from where I extracted the top 20:
New boundaries - statistics and table thread | Vote UK Forum
The Labour target list on the BBC/ITN/Sky News/PA News notional figures RankConstituencyHeld byLab place†Lab behind %Maj. ††
I voted Lib Dem in 2010 in one of those, to keep the Tory out. It worked, and then came the coalition...
Silas Loom
Man with glasses
I believe them that they will not do that again. At least not in 2024.
Will they prop up a minority Labour government, do you reckon?
Silas Loom
Man with glasses
If the alternative was to prop up a minority Conservative one, then of course they would. Maybe confidence and supply rather than another finger-burning coalition, and maybe they would push harder for STV this time round, but it’s clear that the LDs identify as part of the anti-Tory coalition.
hitmouse
music obfuscation technology
Are the Lib Dems planning to take three seats off the Lib Dems?
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