The 2024 UK General Election - news, speculation and updates

[Raheem]

Probably one of the best things that could happen to the British working class would be for Jeremy Corbyn to cark it.

Or voluntarily give up his magic powers, surely?

 

[MickiQ]

Are you telling me that Starmer's mother was a nurse?

According to his Wikipedia entry his father was a toolmaker and his mother was a nurse, he is the second of four.

 

[The39thStep]

Keen footballer as well

 

[belboid]

Keen footballer as well

View attachment 408642

That’s me, with the white boot on.

 

[Nine Bob Note]

Keen footballer as well

View attachment 408642

Fuck, looks like he's a keeper.

 

[The39thStep]

Fuck, looks like he's a keeper.

Apparently likes to play midfield ( in 5 a side!).

 

[tim]

Or voluntarily give up his magic powers, surely?

Jeremy voluntarily gave me some of his magic powder. It had no effect on me. Perhaps, I should have sprinkled it on my allotment.

 

[Pickman's model]

Jeremy voluntarily gave me some of his magic powder. It had no effect on me. Perhaps, I should have sprinkled it on my allotment.

You should have snorted it, not sprinkled it on your head

 

[PR1Berske]

Labour targets based on PA Notional results (new boundaries)

New constituency	Notionally held by	Notional lead
Burnley	Conservative	0.27
Leigh and Atherton	Conservative	0.66
High Peak	Conservative	1.09
Bangor Aberconwy	Conservative	1.55
Wolverhampton West	Conservative	1.83
Bury South	Conservative	1.88
Bury North	Conservative	2.4
Bolton North East	Conservative	2.56
Watford	Conservative	2.69
Chingford and Woodford Green	Conservative	2.94
Wycombe	Conservative	3.19
Birmingham Northfield	Conservative	3.38
Leeds North West	Conservative	3.59
Stroud	Conservative	4.09
Keighley and Ilkley	Conservative	4.22
Stoke-on-Trent Central	Conservative	4.22
Whitehaven and Workington	Conservatives	4.34
Lothian East	SNP	4.35
Gedling	Conservative	4.45
Walsall and Bloxwich	Conservative	4.79

 

[planetgeli]

Labour targets based on PA Notional results (new boundaries)

New constituency	Notionally held by	Notional lead
Burnley	Conservative	0.27
Leigh and Atherton	Conservative	0.66
High Peak	Conservative	1.09
Bangor Aberconwy	Conservative	1.55
Wolverhampton West	Conservative	1.83
Bury South	Conservative	1.88
Bury North	Conservative	2.4
Bolton North East	Conservative	2.56
Watford	Conservative	2.69
Chingford and Woodford Green	Conservative	2.94
Wycombe	Conservative	3.19
Birmingham Northfield	Conservative	3.38
Leeds North West	Conservative	3.59
Stroud	Conservative	4.09
Keighley and Ilkley	Conservative	4.22
Stoke-on-Trent Central	Conservative	4.22
Whitehaven and Workington	Conservatives	4.34
Lothian East	SNP	4.35
Gedling	Conservative	4.45
Walsall and Bloxwich	Conservative	4.79

With respect, that's a fairly pointless list. It's just a top 20. With the new boundary changes Labour needs a record 12.7% swing and a net gain of 125 seats.

All of which is unsurprisingly feasible, even with Starmer.

 

[PR1Berske]

With respect, that's a fairly pointless list. It's just a top 20. With the new boundary changes Labour needs a record 12.7% swing and a net gain of 125 seats.

All of which is unsurprisingly feasible, even with Starmer.

Enjoy

New boundaries - statistics and table thread | Vote UK Forum

The Labour target list on the BBC/ITN/Sky News/PA News notional figures RankConstituencyHeld byLab place†Lab behind %Maj. ††

vote-2012.proboards.com

 

[Raheem]

Fuck, looks like he's a keeper.

You could say that, but it's not like we really have a choice.

 

[belboid]

With respect, that's a fairly pointless list. It's just a top 20. With the new boundary changes Labour needs a record 12.7% swing and a net gain of 125 seats.

All of which is unsurprisingly feasible, even with Starmer.

The boundary changes only give the tories an extra 7 seats, according to John Curtis. They’re not that important

 

[Silas Loom]

The boundary changes only give the tories an extra 7 seats, according to John Curtis. They’re not that important

Seven based on 2019 voting or on current voting intentions?

 

[planetgeli]

Seven based on 2019 voting or on current voting intentions?

Based on 2019 voting. And belboid my point was not about boundary changes. I just factored that in to what Labour now need. The increase, produced by the changes, raises the swing from 12 to 12.7%

 

[PR1Berske]

In the spirit of openness the 20 LibDem targets are, coloured by incumbent:

Carshalton and Wallington
North East Fife
Wimbledon
Sheffield Hallam
South Cambridgeshire
Cheltenham
Mid Dunbartonshire
Cheadle
Eastbourne
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
Esher and Walton
Guildford
Lewes
Hazel Grove
Westmorland and Lonsdale
St Ives
Finchley and Golders Green
Cities of London and Westminster
Winchester
Taunton and Wellington

 

[Chz]

Reckon they'll get the first one. It was very tight last time, and the rookie Tory MP doesn't have the public face skills of the guy he replaced. It's not essential to be out and seen in a lot of seats, but when you get in by a gnat's crochet over someone who was known for it you have to put the effort in. At least he stopped the web polls that were just data mining exercises after enough people complained. (and I think he has a punchable face, but that's just me)

That said, a big enough swing to Labour from LD voters could save him.

 

[BusLanes]

Labour do mount a campaign there Frome time to time too.

 

[Cloo]

Just got a leaflet for Labour candidate (Finchley and Golders Green), Sarah Sackman. They have done a smart thing getting a Jewish candidate well known in the area, and they have quoted three locals, one of whom is an Israeli lady we know well and everyone locally, Jewish or not seems to know - and she is saying she voted Lib Dem last election but feels Labour have changed and she can trust them. Very well played, as this sends a message to Jewish voters and maybe to people who want to vote Labour but perhaps are hesitant about whether their Jewish neighbours are still unhappy with the Labour party.

 

[Dom Traynor]

Has Sarah run before? I definately know her but can't think where from and Google doesn't say much apart from her being a barrister at Matrix.

 

[Silas Loom]

Just got a leaflet for Labour candidate (Finchley and Golders Green), Sarah Sackman. They have done a smart thing getting a Jewish candidate well known in the area, and they have quoted three locals, one of whom is an Israeli lady we know well and everyone locally, Jewish or not seems to know - and she is saying she voted Lib Dem last election but feels Labour have changed and she can trust them. Very well played, as this sends a message to Jewish voters and maybe to people who want to vote Labour but perhaps are hesitant about whether their Jewish neighbours are still unhappy with the Labour party.

N=2, but it’s worked on the inlaws, who will be voting Sackman.

 

[Cloo]

Has Sarah run before? I definately know her but can't think where from and Google doesn't say much apart from her being a barrister at Matrix.

I think she might have run two GEs back?

I think she's going to win it this time.

 

[Chz]

Labour do mount a campaign there Frome time to time too.

They've been doing well at the council level, fingers crossed, but I've never seen one of them campaigning for Parliament. I doubt it's worth throwing much money into, and they only sometimes find someone local who can campaign in their spare time. They peaked at 18% for all time, if you discount 1997.

 

[Dogsauce]

Labour targets based on PA Notional results (new boundaries)

New constituency	Notionally held by	Notional lead
Burnley	Conservative	0.27
Leigh and Atherton	Conservative	0.66
High Peak	Conservative	1.09
Bangor Aberconwy	Conservative	1.55
Wolverhampton West	Conservative	1.83
Bury South	Conservative	1.88
Bury North	Conservative	2.4
Bolton North East	Conservative	2.56
Watford	Conservative	2.69
Chingford and Woodford Green	Conservative	2.94
Wycombe	Conservative	3.19
Birmingham Northfield	Conservative	3.38
Leeds North West	Conservative	3.59
Stroud	Conservative	4.09
Keighley and Ilkley	Conservative	4.22
Stoke-on-Trent Central	Conservative	4.22
Whitehaven and Workington	Conservatives	4.34
Lothian East	SNP	4.35
Gedling	Conservative	4.45
Walsall and Bloxwich	Conservative	4.79

I don’t think they need to ‘target’ those, they’re probably in the bag already. It’s the ones further down the list they need to hit.

 

[PR1Berske]

I don’t think they need to ‘target’ those, they’re probably in the bag already. It’s the ones further down the list they need to hit.

Agreed.

Full list from where I extracted the top 20:

New boundaries - statistics and table thread | Vote UK Forum

The Labour target list on the BBC/ITN/Sky News/PA News notional figures RankConstituencyHeld byLab place†Lab behind %Maj. ††

vote-2012.proboards.com

 

[stavros]

In the spirit of openness the 20 LibDem targets are, coloured by incumbent:

Carshalton and Wallington
North East Fife
Wimbledon
Sheffield Hallam
South Cambridgeshire
Cheltenham
Mid Dunbartonshire
Cheadle
Eastbourne
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
Esher and Walton
Guildford
Lewes
Hazel Grove
Westmorland and Lonsdale
St Ives
Finchley and Golders Green
Cities of London and Westminster
Winchester
Taunton and Wellington

I voted Lib Dem in 2010 in one of those, to keep the Tory out. It worked, and then came the coalition...

 

[Silas Loom]

I voted Lib Dem in 2010 in one of those, to keep the Tory out. It worked, and then came the coalition...

I believe them that they will not do that again. At least not in 2024.

 

[stavros]

I believe them that they will not do that again. At least not in 2024.

Will they prop up a minority Labour government, do you reckon?

 

[Silas Loom]

Will they prop up a minority Labour government, do you reckon?

If the alternative was to prop up a minority Conservative one, then of course they would. Maybe confidence and supply rather than another finger-burning coalition, and maybe they would push harder for STV this time round, but it’s clear that the LDs identify as part of the anti-Tory coalition.

 

[hitmouse]

In the spirit of openness the 20 LibDem targets are, coloured by incumbent:

North East Fife
Mid Dunbartonshire
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross

Are the Lib Dems planning to take three seats off the Lib Dems?