The 2024 UK General Election - news, speculation and updates
- Thread starter chilango
- Start date
elbows
Well-Known Member
During the live coverage the BBC still went on about swing a lot in the usual way, including via graphics. Sometimes it masked what the raw numbers showed, and made the elections seem more typical, sometimes it ended up highlighting that the old norms and the lazy election night narratives that went with them were not a great fit for this election. Even the BBC did start to lean more towards pointing out the latter at times as the night wore on. It partly sponsored a 'stories of tories losing more than labour winning' at some point, but the BBC only had to wait till Friday to get back into their comfort zone, of bigging up the organs of the state by treating the ministerial appointments like some very dull sports coverage.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
There's sophisticated discussion to be had about voter motivation.....BUT YOU WON'T GET THAT FROM ME.....
Essentially, Labour got 32% in the worst imaginable circumstances in 2019. Ongoing internal treachery, weaponised antisemitism and the Tory Party gifted a massive slice of Faragist votes. This time the Tory Party have spent 2 years shoving dogshit through voters letterboxes and Labour can STILL only manage 33% ...and less actual votes.
How did I do John Curtice?
Essentially, Labour got 32% in the worst imaginable circumstances in 2019. Ongoing internal treachery, weaponised antisemitism and the Tory Party gifted a massive slice of Faragist votes. This time the Tory Party have spent 2 years shoving dogshit through voters letterboxes and Labour can STILL only manage 33% ...and less actual votes.
How did I do John Curtice?
I think you’re obsessing over numbers of votes rather than looking at the bigger picture, which is necessary if you want to make such sweeping statements… but you know that
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Ell
The number of seats, certainly for Labour, doesn't relate to seats at all. Everything is imperfect but I'd say the nation's attitude to the party/Starmer is best seen in the turnout and vote share.
Elections.... obsessing over number of votes...I think you’re obsessing over numbers of votes rather than looking at the bigger picture, which is necessary if you want to make such sweeping statements… but you know that
The number of seats, certainly for Labour, doesn't relate to seats at all. Everything is imperfect but I'd say the nation's attitude to the party/Starmer is best seen in the turnout and vote share.
Suffolk Coastal got a surprise Reform candidate so they did for Therese. But Labour saw a decent rise in vote percentage too - probably lots of people who wouldn’t vote Corbyn but would vote Starmer to get rid of Tories.
Coffey was incredibly unpopular due to the sewage in the water which seemed to be the big issue based on my fairly political family in the area. Sizewell is sort of old news - half of those signs have been there for years. And nuclear has had a decent image rebrand in recent years.
The number of seats doesn’t relate to anything apart from the actual result and winning elections… is that you Jezza?!
Cid
Proper break this time
They did turn out for Corbyn in 2017 though. So did more anti-Corbyn types of course, so they had a lower percentage of the vote, but not by much. Significant rise in the Green vote this year too. But yeah, I know Reform did for Coffey, that's kind of the point - but for Reform Coffey would still be there. The details of exactly which policy is motivating stuff isn't super important (though I'd disagree that energy isn't still a concern; there's now a lot of construction happening on the Sizewell site, and the wind landing points are still in planning phase afaik), the point is that - in general - it is a constituency where people are more engaged with local issues.
To be clear, I'm not pining for the days of Corbyn here. Even had he been elected I'm highly dubious he could have competently handled covid or Ukraine etc. I actually expected that Starmer's centrism would bring out the pragmatists and the tactical voters. My point is I don't actually see a huge amount of evidence that that happened.
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Dystopiary
putting up a hook to hang my hopes upon
It's Vicky Foxcroft who was the shadow minister so no weird surprises. Wonder how long it'll take them to update the page on the government website.
Found out through checking wikipedia, can't be doing with SM rn.
Minister of State for Disabled People, Health and Work
(not to be confused with Secretary of State for Work and Pensions)
Silas Loom
Advanced. Forthright. Signifficant.
Good! See question Foxcroft asked in Parliament recently:
Question for Department of Health and Social Care
Chronic Fatigue Syndrome: Exercise
To ask the Secretary of State for Health and Social Care, whether he plans to put in place a new reporting system to enable myalgic encephalomyelitis and chronic fatigue syndrome patients to report harms resulting from graded exercise therapy following the publication of the updated NICE guidelines on myalgic encephalomyelitis and chronic fatigue syndrome.
We can take that particular aspect to the ME thread in K&S if needed, but augurs well in general.
Hollis
bloody furious
I dunno. I think you'll only get a real understanding of what's happening by looking at constituency level.
In my home town in the South West Labour vote has declined from 9000 in 2017 to just over 2000 now. This isn't a constituency that Labour was ever going to win in any year... In 2024 thanks to the switch in votes we now have a LibDem for the first time since 2010. Or more importantly we don't have a Tory.
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Dystopiary
putting up a hook to hang my hopes upon
Well let's see.
BTW, I think the (minister for people with disabilities) job title might have been changed again, dropping the "health and work" bit.
strung out
💩 🤣 🍆 💦 🧐 👻 🐝 🐈⬛
There were huge numbers of tactical voters in what are now Lib Dem seats. You only have to look at the drop in Labour vote in those seats, coupled with a rise in Lib Dem votes to see that a large part of the Labour vote share went towards booting Tories out in favour of a Lib Dem. Could be wrong, but from the voting threads on here, it seemed like quite a lot of posters who voted Labour under Corbyn last time voted Lib Dem this time round.
Cid
Proper break this time
Yeah, that's probably fair - I have not really paid much attention to lib dem seats.
PR1Berske
Alligator in chains by the park gates.
With my very amateur psychologist hat on:
*Lower turnout can indicate disinterest and dissatisfaction, but also complacency and comfort. See local election turnout for the former. Opinion polling did indicate that the supermajority scare tactic was working, mind you.
*Labour won with a similar vote share to Corbyn. The change in seats indicates two things: must better targeting of swing seats, and a huge collapse in the Tory vote
*The Tories are fucked. The moderates fell across the country and there's not much of a balance in the remaining rump. They've been chased out of almost every urban centre in England, everywhere in Wales, almost everywhere in the Lowlands. What remains will be full of grievances and thirst for revenge
*NI is not a story yet to go away for Westminster. Seven Sinn Féin constituencies tells a story; the fact that unionist seats are represented by the UUP, DUP, TUV, and an independent is another. Unionism is badly in need of uniting to be of any use against SF. And that's before we mention Brexit.
*We need to talk about those Labour seats lost to Gaza protesters. This is another narrative for the new government they shouldn't ignore. This speaks of the same opposition to 'centre ground' Labour as Corbyn. The large majority hides many potential niggles.
*Lower turnout can indicate disinterest and dissatisfaction, but also complacency and comfort. See local election turnout for the former. Opinion polling did indicate that the supermajority scare tactic was working, mind you.
*Labour won with a similar vote share to Corbyn. The change in seats indicates two things: must better targeting of swing seats, and a huge collapse in the Tory vote
*The Tories are fucked. The moderates fell across the country and there's not much of a balance in the remaining rump. They've been chased out of almost every urban centre in England, everywhere in Wales, almost everywhere in the Lowlands. What remains will be full of grievances and thirst for revenge
*NI is not a story yet to go away for Westminster. Seven Sinn Féin constituencies tells a story; the fact that unionist seats are represented by the UUP, DUP, TUV, and an independent is another. Unionism is badly in need of uniting to be of any use against SF. And that's before we mention Brexit.
*We need to talk about those Labour seats lost to Gaza protesters. This is another narrative for the new government they shouldn't ignore. This speaks of the same opposition to 'centre ground' Labour as Corbyn. The large majority hides many potential niggles.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Labour probably strategised a good election and might have had less seats but more votes by other approaches. Marginal, I'd guess, but I'll give you that. Let's say they might have got 35% vote share. Fine. Loads of seats, a victory over the decomposing Tory Party. No doubt, loads of seats against, basically, a blob of snot. Where does that leave the left , people who are struggling? What will the representatives of the 33% do to stop the rise of populism?
Jennaonthebeach
If you say so
Poor quality candidates across the board - this Lib Dem is actually a Tory.
But is a hard right more likely to be defeated by people being offered an alternative hard left gov or a centrist gov? I’d wager a centrist party will more easily get a majority to turn away from extreme right.
Puddy_Tat
naturally fluffy
Yes, I think it's quite likely that there is a fair chunk of voters in 'blue wall' seats who in 2019 voted labour because they knew that the tory was going to win anyway, and this time voted lib dem because there seemed to be a chance of the lib dems winning this time and / or meh to starmer. i have a feeling i might be one of them...
in terms of number of votes, my local consituency (wokingham) voted (rounded to nearest thousand)
tories 2019 - 30k, 2024 - 17k
lib dems 2019 - 23k, 2024 - 25k
labour 2019 - 6k, 2024 - 3k
reform 2019 - no candidate, 2024 - 5,k
green 2019 and 2024 - 3k
turnout down from 73 and a bit to 72 % (albeit on a smaller number of voters following boundary changes)
boundary changes were fairly significant - a chunk of labour / lib dem leaning areas (effectively Reading suburbs) were taken out of the constituency and more tory areas that had previously been part of maidenhead constituency were bunged in, and about 9,000 fewer registered voters overall, so the swing to LD is probably more significant than it looks.
and collapse in the SNP vote in scotland.
on the simple numbers, i think it's fair to say that it's more a case of the tories (england + wales) and SNP (scotland) having lost the election, more than labour having won it.
Kid_Eternity
Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
Ian Dunt is on the money as usual.
open.substack.com
Election 2024: This could be the birth of a powerful new electoral reform movement
The election result might be wonderful, but it is not strictly tolerable.
open.substack.com
DotCommunist
So many particulars. So many questions.
Thangams grace at losing reminded me of this
Jennaonthebeach
If you say so
Puddy_Tat
naturally fluffy
'reform' in politician language almost always means any or all of privatisation / cuts / redundancies / worse pay and terms + conditions for workers / more money for bosses and shareholders and accountants and lawyers
Jennaonthebeach
If you say so
Has anyone posted this yet? What horror film is this from?
Jennaonthebeach
If you say so
I'm sure i remember a time when the media called privatisation what it was, rather than some mealy mouthed euphemism.'reform' in politician language almost always means any or all of privatisation / cuts / redundancies / worse pay and terms + conditions for workers / more money for bosses and shareholders and accountants and lawyers
Cid
Proper break this time
I think again we need to remember that 2019 was an absolute disaster of an election for Labour. Followed by 5 years of complete political chaos, a Tory party that really could not be in a worse position. One that has abandoned its traditional social conservative vote base, not over culture war shit, but over literal shit. I don't like Starmer's Labour, but I really wasn't expecting a vote as seemingly shallow as this one is. I also wasn't expecting as many seats, but that does seem to be mainly the Reform effect (the precise nature of which will only be clear with time).
I don't think a 'hard left' (whatever that means) alternative would have a great deal of traction, no. Like vacillating over defence spending or nukes for example would... not go down well in the current climate I think. And taxation is going to be a very dicey thing to try and get across at the moment. But that is not the only alternative. What might have more traction is a party that can properly get across a pro-borrowing, pro-investment and rebuilding message. The centrists have a tendency to bang on about pragmatism, but that is the pragmatic response to years of under-investment. It also allows space for positive campaigning rather than the... just wildly depressing picture Starmer's cabinet appears to be presenting at the moment.
ska invita
back on the other side
Nicking them from which anti-austerity party though?
oxygenthief
Member
Well that's six minutes of my life I'm not getting back.
There's a shot in that pile of shite of him wearing a paperclip on his lapel, apparently that was used by anti-nazis in occupied Norway as a symbol of unity. How dare that vile shit try to claim to be a part of that heritage.
Good fucking riddance.
Wilf
Slouching towards Billingham
Quite possibly, electorally. But do nothing to overturn the conditions that brought us to this point.
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