danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
The what?
The 2024 UK General Election - news, speculation and updates
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Lord Camomile
Yipchaa!
Lord Camomile
Yipchaa!
It's a popular sporting activity, y'honour.
frogwoman
No amount of cajolery...
Yes that's what I thought.
PR1Berske
Alligator in chains by the park gates.
More interesting than the England match!
andysays
Love and solidarity
Certainly a higher score
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
Interesting titbit that kind of gets in the way of this - even if the Tories won every single seat where the Reform vote was enough to gift the seat to Labour, the Tories would still not have won a majority in the HOC.
Some Stats: Labour, the LD's, and the Greens won a total of 15 million votes.
The Tories and Reform won 10 million.
So not only would the Tory and Reform votes have to coalesce almost entirety, but the Tories would also have to retain their 'wet' end and not have votes leech to the LD's and Labour. And they'd still not win...
danny la rouge
More like *fanny* la rouge!
Not in my house.
Cid
Proper break this time
I will admit I haven't gone in-depth on more than er... 15 odd constituencies. But I still wouldn't exactly call that reassuring. I mean the Tories could not be in a worse position at the moment. Also Tory+ref is more like 11m, but that's quibbling.
e2a: also, after 1 term 3 PMs, the Tories 'not winning a majority' would be rightly viewed as a damning indictment of Labour. I honestly expected Labour to do better; in terms of vote share etc. And look, of course the votes would shake out differently, counterfactuals are always a bit fruitless. Nor, of course, do Labour need all their seats... But see Balbi's post below, this shit is genuinely deeply shaky, and this is fairly likely the most popular Starmer's labour will ever be.
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Balbi
Hey, Dean Yager!
Labour going right to secure however many votes they got from the Tories and try and win back the votes they lost to Reform brings the Greens and Lib Dems into play in the seats where they were second place, reducing the majority while also not guaranteeing that the Tory vote won't leave and the Reform vote won't stay.
Labour going left to try and sort out the results of them telling the left to get fucked and vote for someone else for the last four years definitely loses whatever % of their vote went to Reform and the Tory vote they picked up in the last few years. Also no guarantee they can get back the voters they explicitly told to go and vote for someone else.
This victory is one for Centrism, but it's been founded on getting fewer votes and relying on the Tories implosion and Reforms rise. It's a trick you can only do once.
In 1997 - 2010 Labour pretty much cruised through 2001 and 2005 slowly eating away at the majority they'd got because a lot of their majorities were fucking huge. You could lose 10k+ votes between 97 and 05 and still make it in as a Labour MP. Thats not the case any more, seats are a lot more marginal.
Look at how many are 5k and under, or 10k and under. There's a good solid Labour base there in the 10k+ but that's not a parliamentary majority I'm betting, almost every other seat is potentially up for grabs.
There are almost no safe seats, especially if the old two party is being replaced with a four or even five way split if you factor in Greens, Lib Dem and Reform.
Edit: Forgot to add, incumbency weighs heavy. 2019 was fucking weird because it wasn't about the Tories record it was about Brexit. Can a Government make themselves more popular in power? Can this Labour leader do it? We'll find out.
Labour going left to try and sort out the results of them telling the left to get fucked and vote for someone else for the last four years definitely loses whatever % of their vote went to Reform and the Tory vote they picked up in the last few years. Also no guarantee they can get back the voters they explicitly told to go and vote for someone else.
This victory is one for Centrism, but it's been founded on getting fewer votes and relying on the Tories implosion and Reforms rise. It's a trick you can only do once.
In 1997 - 2010 Labour pretty much cruised through 2001 and 2005 slowly eating away at the majority they'd got because a lot of their majorities were fucking huge. You could lose 10k+ votes between 97 and 05 and still make it in as a Labour MP. Thats not the case any more, seats are a lot more marginal.
Look at how many are 5k and under, or 10k and under. There's a good solid Labour base there in the 10k+ but that's not a parliamentary majority I'm betting, almost every other seat is potentially up for grabs.
There are almost no safe seats, especially if the old two party is being replaced with a four or even five way split if you factor in Greens, Lib Dem and Reform.
Edit: Forgot to add, incumbency weighs heavy. 2019 was fucking weird because it wasn't about the Tories record it was about Brexit. Can a Government make themselves more popular in power? Can this Labour leader do it? We'll find out.
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Epona
Sonic: 1 Nov 2006 - 8 Jan 2022
I am very pleased that in my constituency (which is often assumed to be quite a right wing part of London, was part of Essex before it was incorporated into the Greater London Area and very impoverished), Reform and any other right wing options basically did shit all.
We've had a Labour MP since 1905, and this election hasn't changed that - although the Labour share of the vote did drop quite considerably, it was a pro-Palestine/left-leaning independent who came 2nd with a relatively healthy vote, with the Green candidate in 3rd place.
We've had a Labour MP since 1905, and this election hasn't changed that - although the Labour share of the vote did drop quite considerably, it was a pro-Palestine/left-leaning independent who came 2nd with a relatively healthy vote, with the Green candidate in 3rd place.
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BusLanes
Pedestrian
That's a really distinctive change isn't it.
Also quite mad how many of the big majority MPs are now LDs. Albeit in a generally much reduced majority election
strung out
💩 🤣 🍆 💦 🧐 👻 🐝 🐈⬛
Some interesting polling on where Reform’s votes could have gone if Reform hadn’t been an option. Shows that it’s not as simple as just adding together the Tory and Reform votes in any given constituency to calculate the opposition to Labour.
Jennaonthebeach
If you say so
That's why I'm very sceptical about this so called strategy. I live in a formerly Tory seat and he definitely lost me (I left Labour and rejoined the Greens) but how did they know how to pitch their policies to exactly get the right amount of voters to vote Labour in Dover? I'm sure nobody but the local party thought about how to get the right voters in Dover, and which voters they can afford to lose (me getting blocked on Twitter suggests they kinda knew who they didn't want as supporters). Maybe by polling, but then the blunt instrument of having no policies to speak of, agreeing with the Tories and expelling the left applies the same everywhere - there is no bespoke set of policies for particular regions or constituencies - so i cannot believe this anything but luck.
Cid
Proper break this time
Yeah, I do actually know a Reform voter who I reckon probably would have gone Lab. It is complex. Apathy on the Tories will be part of that picture too though (i.e lower turnouts for them in general), so it's all very much dependent on what both blue parties get up to over the next 5 years.
CH1
"Red Guard"(NLYL)
There was a follow-up to that Tweet (without picture) claiming that Rachel Reeves too played the flute.
I was alarmed.
Then again some conductor somewhere tweeted his sorrow that Thangam Debonaire lost to the Green Party candidate.
Reason being that she is a cellist and would have been a culture secretary more in keeping with the needs of musicians.
Sorry - can't find the tweet - but this article relates to the issue
A cellist in high places: Thangam Debbonaire
At the next general election, the former cellist in the Royal Liverpool Philharmonic Orchestra could become UK Culture Secretary. She tells us about how her musical career has helped her in politics and her desire to rebuild music education.
bachtrack.com
SpookyFrank
A cheap source of teeth for aquarium gravel
Then again some conductor somewhere tweeted his sorrow that Thangam Debonaire lost to the Green Party candidate.
Reason being that she is a cellist and would have been a culture secretary more in keeping with the needs of musicians.
Sorry - can't find the tweet - but this article relates to the issue
A cellist in high places: Thangam Debbonaire
At the next general election, the former cellist in the Royal Liverpool Philharmonic Orchestra could become UK Culture Secretary. She tells us about how her musical career has helped her in politics and her desire to rebuild music education.bachtrack.com
Looks like Debbonaire needs to trade her big violin in for a little tiny one.
tim
EXPLODED TIM! (Help me!!!)
They've got about 15 seats between them. I don't think Starmer will find that particularly intimidating.
Lord Camomile
Yipchaa!
Karl Masks
Birds Angel Delight
So Keir is basically no better than jeremy crumbles, friend of the Ira/Hamas/everyone bad ever?
PR1Berske
Alligator in chains by the park gates.
The Spectator has been quicker than even the Telegraph in writing the 750-word demolition job. There will be a lot more of this. God knows who Tory lawyers have advised down the years.
strung out
💩 🤣 🍆 💦 🧐 👻 🐝 🐈⬛
PR1Berske
Alligator in chains by the park gates.
I'm looking at this from two sides (this is how fence sitting I can be)
Vallance and Timpson are examples of experts who should be close to government. Our shitty system requires them to be in parliament and a peerage is the only way to do that. The US system of appointing SoSs who are not elected is a model to critique here.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Quick, buiild a wall from Saltash to Bude and don’t let the fuckers back in ever. Portcullises, boiling tar, all that sort of shit.
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