Israel-Iran conflicts - news and discussion

[Pickman's model]

Every time I check in here (and it's becoming less and less often due to folks like you) I see you've become more of an arrogant wanker than the last time. Constantly sniping at folks and yet you always seem to be 'just observing'. You provide no analysis or opinions. What on earth do you think? Would really like to know. Or are you just killing time whilst studying for your PHD? Did you ever complete it, or are you still studying by the way?

I think you're wilfully blind as I often offer opinions and even on occasion analysis. you've more interest in blathering on about what you think are my shortcomings than offering any form of opinion or news on the topic of the thread.

 

[PTK]

I came home and heard a news bulletin on the radio about a missile attack, and I assumed that it was referring to an attack by Hezbollah. I was even thinking of ringing the BBC to complain that they seemed to be giving more coverage to Hezbollah attacks on Israel than to Israeli attacks on Lebanon. It was only when I looked at this thread that I realised that it was an attack by the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The point of my anecdote that is that many of us are becoming accustomed to hearing of missiles attacks, and don’t always listen properly to the news as a result.

 

[bcuster]

US should not get involved

Biden directed US military to help Israel shoot down Iranian missiles, officials say

National security adviser Jake Sullivan called the attack "ineffective."

abcnews.go.com

 

[A380]

US should not get involved

Biden directed US military to help Israel shoot down Iranian missiles, officials say

National security adviser Jake Sullivan called the attack "ineffective."

abcnews.go.com

TBF I think you , like us Brits, already are.

 

[Idris2002]

So. Have the Iranian missiles hit anything important? Because otherwise it's just nuisance value.

 

[Bingoman]

So. Have the Iranian missiles hit anything important? Because otherwise it's just nuisance value.

Apparently not

 

[Whagwan]

Nevatim Airbase apparently

 

[planetgeli]

So. Have the Iranian missiles hit anything important? Because otherwise it's just nuisance value.

Politically, it's a little more than that.

Militarily, well, Israel seem pretty confident in what they are saying.

It's not just a few bombs far away.

 

[pbsmooth]

The Iron Dome seems pretty incredible. Does only Israel have this sort of thing or is just we know about theirs because it’s one of the more active ones?

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

The Iron Dome seems pretty incredible. Does only Israel have this sort of thing or is just we know about theirs because it’s one of the more active ones?

Only Israel needs it.

 

[yield]

Nevatim Airbase apparently

Tel Nof air base too apparently?

Watch: Iranian missiles rain down on one of Israel’s largest air bases

Tehran launched about 180 ballistic missiles during a large-scale aerial assault

www.telegraph.co.uk

 

[donkyboy]

Nevatim Airbase apparently

You really can't trust what the Israelis say about the effectiveness of Israel's Iron Dome on this Iranian missile attacks. Its easy to say most missiles were shot down. And its in their best interest to say so as well

 

[teqniq]

The view from Gaza during the Iranian missile strikes:

Translated text via Google translate:

'Overwhelming joy sweeps the streets of Jabalia camp, as residents celebrate as they watch Iranian missiles cross the skies of occupied Palestine.'

View attachment ssstwitter.com_1727803530170.mp4


source

Meanwhile the same night in Khan Younis in Gaza:

 

[Spymaster]

Only Israel needs it.

I had no idea that ballistic warfare looked like this. I think I’ve always envisaged one missile, one target. Not hundreds of the fucking things raining down like confetti.

 

[_Russ_]

Media seems to be avoiding any mention of Russia's strong military relationship with Iran.
Iran will be calling in some favours after its support of Russia's special operation
US is sabre rattling and indeed getting its forces directly involved
From the point of view of Russia they are having their bluff called

 

[tim]

Media seems to be avoiding any mention of Russia's strong military relationship with Iran.
Iran will be calling in some favours after its support of Russia's special operation
US is sabre rattling and indeed getting its forces directly involved
From the point of view of Russia they are having their bluff called

They don't ignore it half as much as they ignore the very close long-standing political and militarily relationship between the Russian regime and the Israeli regime.

 

[TopCat]

They don't ignore it as much as they ignore the very close long-standing political relationship between the Russian regime and the Israeli regime.

How is this relationship demonstrated?

 

[tim]

A symbolic example is the picture from Red Square I added to the pist

How is this relationship demonstrated?

A telling symbolic example is in the picture from May Day in Red Square appended to the post above.

 

[2hats]

I had no idea that ballistic warfare looked like this. I think I’ve always envisaged one missile, one target. Not hundreds of the fucking things raining down like confetti.

Not seen one missile, ten-twelve targets?

​

Things may not be as they first appear. "Confetti" is, in some cases perhaps, an apt word. In a few of those videos (from yesterday evening) those weren't missile payloads in a (near-)nominal, (semi-)controlled terminal phase of flight, but post-interception debris showers (and likely some in-flight failures too). Some of the warheads may have failed (or been disabled/disrupted), there might not even have been warheads on some (purely kinetic strike, as at least one crater near Mossad HQ might evidence), and those that were armed appear to have been relatively low yield (quite possibly, many of the missiles were on depressed trajectories, so compromising their throw weights). Another possibility is that part of the shower comprised decoys/penaids (if only by increasing the number of inert projectiles launched, rather than by design, perhaps).

Meanwhile, from the other end… (note early boost phase RUD, possibly multiple; at least one failed motor fell on NE Iran):

View attachment IRICBMlaunches.mp4​

(Comment from flight crew): "Filmed from flight deck of an airliner near Shiraz, Iran. No warning from ATC who had no idea. Turned away immediately."​

 

[TopCat]

A symbolic example is the picture from Red Square I added to the pist

A telling symbolic example is in the picture from May Day in Red Square appended to the post above.

Any concrete examples? Gen question

 

[2hats]

Quick look SAR imagery would seem to suggest that most of Nevatim AFB is intact this morning. Need to wait for the full-fat data to arrive though.

 

[CNT36]

The Iron Dome seems pretty incredible. Does only Israel have this sort of thing or is just we know about theirs because it’s one of the more active ones?

A pedantic point but this was not just Iron Dome. Israel has several different missile defense systems. Iron Dome deals with the short range missiles coming Gaza, Lebanon etc. David's sling deals with medium to long range missiles. Arrow 2 and 3 are designed to stop ballistic missiles inside or outside of the atmosphere. A few countries have systems of some kind. Ours are apparently inadequate and overly reliant on the US. There was a report last week saying as much.

UK warned it is ‘vulnerable’ to missile attack

The UK's missile defence capabilities are in urgent need of improvement, according to a new report from the House of Lords’ International Relations and Defence Committee.

ukdefencejournal.org.uk

 

[_Russ_]

A pedantic point but this was not just Iron Dome. Israel has several different missile defense systems. Iron Dome deals with the short range missiles coming Gaza, Lebanon etc. David's sling deals with medium to long range missiles. Arrow 2 and 3 are designed to stop ballistic missiles inside or outside of the atmosphere. A few countries have systems of some kind. Ours are apparently inadequate and overly reliant on the US. There was a report last week saying as much.

UK warned it is ‘vulnerable’ to missile attack

The UK's missile defence capabilities are in urgent need of improvement, according to a new report from the House of Lords’ International Relations and Defence Committee.

ukdefencejournal.org.uk

US Aircraft carriers intercepted some too. USA and UK are both now active in the area in a practical sense

 

[_Russ_]

They don't ignore it half as much as they ignore the very close long-standing political and militarily relationship between the Russian regime and the Israeli regime.

View attachment 444960

Could be said for the majority of major non muslim countries with greatly varying degrees of admission or trumpeting

 

[pbsmooth]

A pedantic point but this was not just Iron Dome. Israel has several different missile defense systems. Iron Dome deals with the short range missiles coming Gaza, Lebanon etc. David's sling deals with medium to long range missiles. Arrow 2 and 3 are designed to stop ballistic missiles inside or outside of the atmosphere. A few countries have systems of some kind. Ours are apparently inadequate and overly reliant on the US. There was a report last week saying as much.

UK warned it is ‘vulnerable’ to missile attack

The UK's missile defence capabilities are in urgent need of improvement, according to a new report from the House of Lords’ International Relations and Defence Committee.

ukdefencejournal.org.uk

yes, I was just using a shorthand having just read about exactly that - but it's a fair point. I guess it helps that Israel is a lot smaller...

 

[2hats]

A pedantic point but this was not just Iron Dome.

Iron Dome may have intercepted some projectiles with CEPs deemed coincident with higher value targets, but they weren't the only interdictions. There were certainly a lot of high altitude intercepts, a number exoatmospheric judging from witnessed phenomena, most likely Arrow/SM-3.

 

[PTK]

Not seen one missile, ten-twelve targets?

View attachment 444959​

Things may not be as they first appear. "Confetti" is, in some cases perhaps, an apt word. In a few of those videos (from yesterday evening) those weren't missile payloads in a (near-)nominal, (semi-)controlled terminal phase of flight, but post-interception debris showers (and likely some in-flight failures too). Some of the warheads may have failed (or been disabled/disrupted), there might not even have been warheads on some (purely kinetic strike, as at least one crater near Mossad HQ might evidence), and those that were armed appear to have been relatively low yield (quite possibly, many of the missiles were on depressed trajectories, so compromising their throw weights). Another possibility is that part of the shower comprised decoys/penaids (if only by increasing the number of inert projectiles launched, rather than by design, perhaps).

Meanwhile, from the other end… (note early boost phase RUD, possibly multiple; at least one failed motor fell on NE Iran):

View attachment 444961​

(Comment from flight crew): "Filmed from flight deck of an airliner near Shiraz, Iran. No warning from ATC who had no idea. Turned away immediately."​

How can the terminal phase of the flight of a ballistic missile be controlled?

 

[2hats]

How can the terminal phase of the flight of a ballistic missile be controlled?

Stabilisation. Consider the light curves (let alone the trajectories, accelerations) of the LGM-118A RVs pictured above versus that of projectiles yesterday. And that's before one entertains thoughts of HGV/MaRV.

 

[PTK]

Stabilisation. Consider the light curves (let alone the trajectories, accelerations) of the LGM-118A RVs pictured above versus that of projectiles yesterday. And that's before one entertains thoughts of HGV/MaRV.

I have no idea what they means. What I do know is that ballistic misiles are unpowered as they return to the ground, which is why they are called ballistic.

 

[CNT36]

I have no idea what they means.

The brightness of the baddies stuff and goodies stuff in the sky vary providing information on what is in the air. Some shit delivered by ballistic missile can fly about a bit under its own power.