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pretty much all shares are being pummeled atm, no exceptions
Supine
Newt Member
Shares can go up and down. Crypto can go wildly up and down, disappear and god knows what. It’s the unregulated Wild West of gambling. Anyone who thinks it is a sound investment is an idiot or a lier.
I noticed crypto adverts at the F1. I guess people with a coin stake really need others to join, to stop them being at the bottom of the pyramid.
I noticed crypto adverts at the F1. I guess people with a coin stake really need others to join, to stop them being at the bottom of the pyramid.
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littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
You can also lose money on the stock market. Doesn't mean it's an equivalent thing. When you buy shares in a company, you're getting a board on your side that is going to fuck over its workers, dodge paying taxes, screw suppliers, and do everything else in its power in order to make you a profit.
sigh. yes the point was to look a little wider in time than following a once in a lifetime period of pandemic, war and inflation.
Correct, and by the same token, a lot of crypto 'investors' have become immensely rich
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
Some have. Most haven't. That's the nature of pyramid schemes.
That’s a graph of the price index, not a total return index. You have to add the dividends on top of that price return. And to compare fairly, you need to look at what happens if you reinvest those dividends in the price at the time of the dividend. The total return graph looks a lot more favourable than that. (Not to mention that very few people put their entire capital investment in right at the height of the price index. It’s generally more spread out than that.)
Monkeygrinder's Organ
Dodgy geezer swilling vapid lager
Yes and the ones that have are the ones that got there early and they've done that at the expense of the more recent ones who are out of pocket now. Can someone getting in now make those sort of returns? Only if a lot more funds can be sucked in which isn't impossible I guess, but a lot of people have been burned now.
This is a good explanation:
www.ig.com
It explains why dividends matter — over the history of the FTSE 100, the price return is 5.77%pa but the total return is 7.75%. And it then shows why dividend reinvestment also matters to the equation:
Your chart earlier was just the red part. Throw in dividend reinvestment and it becomes the orange version.
What are the average returns of the FTSE 100?
Get insights into how the FTSE 100 has performed historically. Learn how to interpret FTSE 100 returns and find out what the index has returned over time.
www.ig.com
It explains why dividends matter — over the history of the FTSE 100, the price return is 5.77%pa but the total return is 7.75%. And it then shows why dividend reinvestment also matters to the equation:
Your chart earlier was just the red part. Throw in dividend reinvestment and it becomes the orange version.
strung out
💩 🤣 🍆 💦 🧐 👻 🐝 🐈⬛
Can't think why Tesla stock is down so much at the moment
Tesla (TSLA) has lost over $500 million from its Bitcoin investment amid crypto winter
Tesla (TSLA) has lost over $500 million in value from its Bitcoin investment amid what people are now calling a “crypto winter.” Early in 2021, Tesla invested $1.5 billion in Bitcoin. Shortly after, the automaker started accepting the cryptocurrency as payment on new vehicles. However, a few...
electrek.co
BigTom
Well-Known Member
oh come on.
Nobody outside of wall street bets is suggesting you yolo your "savings" into a single stock.
Nobody serious will talk to you about "parking your savings" in stocks at all because that's not what savings are, or are about. You will always be warned that the value of your investment could go up or down... if not then you are speaking to a shyster and best to veer away. Anything short to medium term should be in savings accounts or govt bonds
Broad FTSE 100 type stock funds - not single sector ETFs - have a very good long term record that makes them ideal for things like pensions, where yes you will be looking for a return over decades and as you head towards retirement, you will start moving your investments out of the stock exchange into government bonds and such like which really are a safe place to park your savings (or at least as safe as the government you are lending money to). iirc this tends to happen over a 10 year period to manage exactly the kind of problems you talked about in your next post.
Also makes me laugh that you think it's bad that a company is profitable to be honest. Like what should you be looking to invest in companies that are losing money? At least at some point netflix are likely to start paying dividends and you are far, far, far too focused on the short term stock price changes for where your returns should be coming from if you are investing in shares... unless you have the WSB attitude which clearly has rubbed off on you as it's definitely the lense through which you are viewing stock market investments - I think you said so yourself in a later post that you don't really understand it.
If you want short term gains by investing in companies you need to have your money invested in start up and growth companies, and then it is all about the gains or losses on the share prices... but nobody (outside of the madness of WSB) will tell you to put savings into start up companies.
I genuinely didn't know Netflix was still turing a profit. I read a headline recently about the scale of the share price crash and assumed they were going out of business and it made me think of this thread.
Given the tone of the schadenfreude on this thread over the last 6 months, I'm obviously playing devils advocate in pointing out (with the worse case scenario of some numpty investing their life savings and getting rekt) that the same applies equally to shares as it does to crypto over that time span.*
Over a longer time span, crypto bros did well, probably better than stocks.
The bottom line does seem to suggest that the fundamentals of both are at least similar and therefore (imo) a gamble.
* I appreciate there are different risk classed in stockes but a bitcoin and a shitcoin NFT are wildly different things too, yet not really diffentiated here in the schadenfreude pile on.
littlebabyjesus
one of Maxwell's demons
No they're not. You've just had long posts explaining why. Shares potentially generate dividends from the profits of the companies the shareholders part-own. Crypto does not generate profits so generates no dividends. The only way to profit from crypto is to sell it for more than you bought it for. It has no fundamentals.
And I think you misunderstand many of the previous posts about the recent losses. It's mostly not schadenfreude, although there has been a bit. Not from me, though. I want crypto to crash and burn because I think it is a highly destructive thing and the world would be better off without it. For that to happen, some people will have to lose money. A few of those people may be undeserving of the loss, but there is no other way to crash it than to have those people lose money.
BigTom
Well-Known Member
No, what's happened with netflix is the same thing that has happened with tesla. Speculators betting on the future, and netflix's growth has slowed. They are still growing overall although they've lost subscribers in some key markets like the USA iirc. But now the projections for how profitable it's going to get and when have got worse so speculators see less value in them. Same with Tesla in many ways - speculators now feel that they have over estimated the potential for growth and future profits, although in this case I would say there's a lot of people who have consistently been saying that tesla is way overvalued compared to its actual business.
But none of this matters to someone invested in a FTSE 100 type index. Now I don't know which stock excahnge netflix is listed on or how high it is or was but let's just pretend it was in the FTSE 100 and with its price dropping so much is no longer in the FTSE 100. As an investor here you will have bought the shares when they entered the FTSE 100, and you are going to sell them when they exit the FTSE 100, purchasing the same value of shares in whichever company enters it.
So the individual share price does not matter. What matters is the price of the 100th most valuable FTSE listed company, because that's what you buy and sell.
So lets try and work this as an example with easy maths.
start at a value of 100 and say that the bottom company in the FTSE index grew 10% over whatever time period we want to consider, from when netflix entered the FTSE 100, then rose to 300 from the 100 it had when it entered, then fell to 50. At the same time the company at the bottom (ie: was at #101 until netflix dropped below it) went from whatever to 110. (the company that was #100 when netflix entered might be the same company that comes back in, but it might not).
You buy the shares at 100. You sell them at 110. The fact that netflix rose 300% then fell 70% (I know I haven't done the reduction maths right) doesn't matter at all because those gains and losses don't affect your investment because you aren't invested in a single stock but in the index, and what matters is how the index performs, not how individual shares within it perform. If the index had reduced from 100 to 90 that would be bad of course but it's not the individual shares that matter regardless of whether you gain or lose money. (edit: and all of that ignores the simple fact that the vast majority of companies in the FTSE 100 pay dividends which would cover or at least hedge against any losses in the share values)
Disclaimer: I am by no means an expert in how these things work and would happily be corrected on this by anyone who really does. But the above is my understanding of how broad stock market investments work in a practical sense.
The difference between bitcoin and most shitcoins in terms of fundamentals is zero. Bitcoin has no mechanism by which to provide a return to people who hold bitcoin than most shitcoins do.
Some shitcoins are proof of stake so do actually pay returns to holders who stake their coins and take an active part in the network. Until of course a rug gets pulled.
You can stake bitcoin but that is people setting up secondary markets and not something fundamental to bitcoin, unlike dividends which are a fundamental part of share ownership.
The other difference is simply time. Stock markets have consistent long term performance proven over decades, must be well over a century. Bitcoin only came into existence in 2009, and the wider crypto world is even younger than that. This is the first time that this world has faced a macro-economic downturn and more importantly, all the time it has existed up to now has been a time of quantitative easing, where money has been cheap and interest rates low. This has led to asset inflation, money looking for places to go. Now we are entering a period of quantitative tightening and high inflation. These two factors are going to hugely reduce the amount of money heading for investment - the first in the money markets and the latter in retail investors. Alongside that is the upcoming recession/depression.
Stocks have been through this before and yes it's been bad but we know they recover, because they are fundamentally based on companies that make or do things that creates profit that can be distributed through dividends. Bitcoin and any other PoW coin has no such revenue generation prospects and not enough history behind it to make it anything other than a gamble.
If you follow the WSB mentality you'll yolo individual shares in the hope of short term gains and that's a gamble for sure but most stock investments - and any actual ones for ordinary people - are not like that. Even venture capital for start ups is not like that, they gamble for sure but not in the same way you are thinking. They will look for 100 companies, any of which could payoff at 1,000X their investment and hope that 1 does. Invest 100, return 1,000 for 10X gains. The gambling is hedged by the broad nature of their gamble - they don't know which will succeed but with enough investments, one will pay off, giving them the gain they want - but that's not the 1,000X gain from their one company, it's the 10X gains from their 100 companies, 1 of which succeeded.
q_w_e_r_t_y
You see an investment scam and I see divinity
What do you consider "early" because whatever it is, there willl be people at that time that were bemoaning how late they were. Most people in the world still use fiat. we are still very very early.
Supine
Newt Member
You’re only very early if you assume everyone will be getting into crypto. You are late if loss of value, technological limitations and/or unregulated chaos stop new people joining. Time will tell.
You need some good news stories.
Celsius Network: cryptocurrency lender files for bankruptcy
Company enters Chapter 11 process as fallout continues from collapse of global cryptocurrency networks
Monkeygrinder's Organ
Dodgy geezer swilling vapid lager
Everybody is still using fiat, possibly excepting some subsistence farmers or remote tribespeople. You're still using fiat. The discussion here is about Bitcoin etc as a speculative asset, the Bitcoin will take over stuff isn't going anywhere.
q_w_e_r_t_y
You see an investment scam and I see divinity
Yeah, I suppose if you are trying to use bitcoin as a speculative asset, I can see why you are so negative towards it, Its a terrible investment, most people who try to make fiat money out of trading btc fail spectacularly (just look at 3AC, I love the fact that I am now a billion dollars richer than a hedge fund!)
maomao
普費斯
Well if it's not an investment and it's fuck all use for buying a sandwich what's it for?
And if you do answer that I'm still waiting for an answer about where my kid gets his medicine from in your brave new world.
Supine
Newt Member
Todays flight is sponsored by titanicoin
BigTom
Well-Known Member
Is it going to the moon?
beesonthewhatnow
going deaf for a living
Celsius Files for Bankruptcy as Users Worry Their Money is Gone Forever
The cryptocurrency platform stopped all withdrawals on June 12 when crypto prices tanked.
gizmodo.com
lol
Ranbay
The same rules apply
The new South Park movie is basically just one long crypto roast
It’s streaming on Paramount Plus now, and it’s glorious.
www.theverge.com
Was soooo funny
stdP
One Swiss dinosaur in Polly Gosling's anorak hood
Celsius Files for Bankruptcy as Users Worry Their Money is Gone Forever
The cryptocurrency platform stopped all withdrawals on June 12 when crypto prices tanked.
lol
I find it hard to believe no-one has re-branded them as −273.15 Celsius, given that's your chances of getting your money back. But I'm sure everyone involved will be happy to know they're using the same lawyers as the defunct Three Arrows Capital.
From a gizmodo post:
That means a shortfall of at least a billion, and since they're mostly loans I expect that to be more like a $4bn shortfall.
From a Celsius blog post (quoted below in case of disappearance) from less than a week ago:
I dare say that even if Celsius were perfectly managed, wholly secure and entirely legit, they're still not immune to runs on banks. But... no-one is, and that's one of the reasons we have financial regulations. For banks, anyway.
P.S. I'm still digesting this one myself (and apologies if it's already been posted) but an interesting article (albeit with a strong whiff of Yellow Peril in a somewhat overripe style) with an even more damning take on Tether:
gosub
~#
Democratic lawmakers ask federal agencies to crack down on crypto mining
They probed seven companies to reveal their energy use and pollution
www.theverge.com
It’s just all so fucked upDemocratic lawmakers ask federal agencies to crack down on crypto mining
They probed seven companies to reveal their energy use and pollution
ska invita
back on the other side
"Seven of the biggest crypto-mining companies in the US have the collective capacity to use over 1 gigawatt of electricity, according to the letter. That’s the equivalent of two standard coal plants or, as the letter puts it, almost enough to power all the residences in Houston."
shit i didnt realise it was that much
shit i didnt realise it was that much
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