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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

tim said:
As Ukraine has sent proxy troops over the Russian border and are shelling Belogrod again, killing at least two, isn't time to make that submission?

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Traditionally a cross-border attack where no territory is taken is defined as a raid, rather than an invasion. I do understand that the 2014-22 period of Russia occupying the Donbass while pretending it hadn't may have made this a confusing concept for you.
 
gosub said:
www.bloomberg.com

Seizing Russia’s Frozen $300 Billion Is Legal, Urgent and Right

Vladimir Putin’s attack against Ukraine is also an assault erga omnes, “toward all.” Remember that term — the future of international law hinges on it.
www.bloomberg.com www.bloomberg.com


I can't see the UN OKing this
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Here's a paywall busted link - https://archive.ph/xPRJS

The suggestion is it could happen under a a resolution already passed by the UN General Assembly, which is an interesting take.

So where do we go from here? I think individual countries passing national laws to seize the Russian assets — as the US Congress is trying to do with the so-called REPO for Ukrainians Act — would set a bad example. It introduces arbitrariness, and would encourage cynicism in other countries, notably China, and efforts to hold foreign reserves in politically friendly countries and currencies other than dollars or euros.

Better, therefore, to stick to international law all the way. Zelikow and his co-authors pay particular attention to a resolution by the UN General Assembly that calls for setting up “an international mechanism” to pay reparations to Ukraine. Countries would place Russia’s sovereign assets into an escrow account administered by an international body. It would then allocate the money to compensate Putin’s victims and rebuild Ukraine.
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Such measures obviously wouldn’t solve all of Kyiv’s problems. The Ukrainians are fighting for their national existence, and the Russians have an advantage of three to four times in the production of ammo, according to Estonian estimates. Continued aid from the US seems deadlocked in Congress. And even if Russia’s sovereign assets are confiscated, they can’t be used to pay for guns and shells.

But money is fungible. So every dollar taken from the Russian central bank and spent to rebuild a Ukrainian power plant or hospital frees up a different dollar Kyiv can spend on its army.
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Raheem said:
Can you see the UN being asked?
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That would be a problem. I'm broadly supportive of Ukraine. I don't know who Cupidstunt was referring to when he talked about Russia and a debt...but it brought this to mind...if its done without explicit concent of the international community (which would be fucking difficult given the setup) this would cause headaches
 
The very obvious downside is that it would explicitly be open season on your assets in any country you find yourself in conflict with - so every UK business with assets in China for example might wake up one day and find they'd been nationalised without compensation - but, imv, to be worried about this as a new threat means having to believe that the protection against this kind of thing within functioning, universally accepted and applied international law currently exists, and I'm not convinced it does..

Personally, I think that the concept of international law as 200 countries signing up to the same thing and applying it regardless of which other states are involved in a legal dispute is over - I think that the future of such ideas is in blocks, so you'd have European international law, and North America International law, and everyone else's different versions of international law, and that if you chose to do business in China or Russia for example, you're accepting that you do so at your own risk, and that the playing field and referee are not going to be on your side in the event of some kind of conflict.

It's a pity in many ways, but I don't think that stops it being true - and I think that railing against it or pretending that the situation is otherwise is just yelling at the sea and expecting it to change its mind about getting your feet wet.
 
kebabking said:
The very obvious downside is that it would explicitly be open season on your assets in any country you find yourself in conflict with - so every UK business with assets in China for example might wake up one day and find they'd been nationalised without compensation - but, imv, to be worried about this as a new threat means having to believe that the protection against this kind of thing within functioning, universally accepted and applied international law currently exists, and I'm not convinced it does..

Personally, I think that the concept of international law as 200 countries signing up to the same thing and applying it regardless of which other states are involved in a legal dispute is over - I think that the future of such ideas is in blocks, so you'd have European international law, and North America International law, and everyone else's different versions of international law, and that if you chose to do business in China or Russia for example, you're accepting that you do so at your own risk, and that the playing field and referee are not going to be on your side in the event of some kind of conflict.

It's a pity in many ways, but I don't think that stops it being true - and I think that railing against it or pretending that the situation is otherwise is just yelling at the sea and expecting it to change its mind about getting your feet wet.
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I agree with every word of this, but would add that if power blocs and zones of influence coalesce even further, UK businesses also need to be prepared for investments across Africa and South America to disappear.
 
Silas Loom said:
I agree with every word of this, but would add that if power blocs and zones of influence coalesce even further, UK businesses also need to be prepared for investments across Africa and South America to disappear.
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Noticed this week there's a lot more Belt and road going on in South America than I thought...by product will be aiding northern migration (US won't like that)

Is a tough one Chinese loan terms undermine IMF type stuff whilst UK goes after Glencorp for doing similar
 
gosub said:
That would be a problem. I'm broadly supportive of Ukraine. I don't know who Cupidstunt was referring to when he talked about Russia and a debt...but it brought this to mind...if its done without explicit concent of the international community (which would be fucking difficult given the setup) this would cause headaches
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Are you confusing me with another poster?

I don't recall posting anything about Russia and a debt, and the search function suggests I didn't, with the exception of my post above quoting from the link you posted.
 
kebabking said:
I suppose it depends one whether you think these things are coming down the road, or already parked outside your house...
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It's definitely an elephant. As much as I personally think yeah well Russia illegally attacking Ukraine have their 300bil makes sense..is, long term, feeding the elephant buns so maybe not such a good idea. China economy in trauma right now...a bit of wait and see wouldn't hurt.
 
gosub said:
That would be a problem. I'm broadly supportive of Ukraine. I don't know who Cupidstunt was referring to when he talked about Russia and a debt...but it brought this to mind...if its done without explicit concent of the international community (which would be fucking difficult given the setup) this would cause headaches
Click to expand...

cupid_stunt said:
Are you confusing me with another poster?

I don't recall posting anything about Russia and a debt, and the search function suggests I didn't, with the exception of my post above quoting from the link you posted.
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It was TopCat on the matter of the soviet contribution to WW2 and the fact they soaked up vast amounts of german ordnance and blood that otherwise could have been directed westwards.

That's my reading of what he posted anyway, he might have meant different but I don't think so.

TopCat said:
I think if the Germans had invaded the UK they would have succeeded in subjugating the populace. However they turned right and attacked the USSR and fucked up. We still owe a debt imo.
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TopCat said:
We would have got done. The USSR took the brunt though. Thirty plus million dead. As I said, we owe a debt.
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Just to clarify. I had a brain itch, now it's scratched
 
mojo pixy said:
It was TopCat on the matter of the soviet contribution to WW2 and the fact they soaked up vast amounts of german ordnance and blood that otherwise could have been directed westwards.

That's my reading of what he posted anyway, he might have meant different but I don't think so.





Just to clarify. I had a brain itch, now it's scratched
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mojo pixy said:
It was TopCat on the matter of the soviet contribution to WW2 and the fact they soaked up vast amounts of german ordnance and blood that otherwise could have been directed westwards.

That's my reading of what he posted anyway, he might have meant different but I don't think so.





Just to clarify. I had a brain itch, now it's scratched
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Ah...fuck that.
Yalta
 
so, if the british economy is based on banking etc. and part of that is rich people seeing it as a safe place to stick their money, what happens when that is no longer the case?
 
discokermit said:
so, if the british economy is based on banking etc. and part of that is rich people seeing it as a safe place to stick their money, what happens when that is no longer the case?
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Desperate stuff. Can’t you complain to anyone? It must be really annoying, and surely you expected punchier talking points when you signed up.
 
No worries - all the dodgy money from organized crime and dictatorsthat floods into London to inflate the property market is safe because the government allows it all to be done anonymously :thumbs:
 
I've always been a bit baffled by the "we owe them a debt" narrative tbh, as though

a) the Red Army was doing it for our benefit
b) the USSR which oversaw that effort and sacrificed all those millions of lives still exists
c) anyone much from the period is still alive to thank
d) we're supposed to consider the actions of a self-interested nationstate defending its own borders to comprise a collective debt that "we" (what as, a part of the global working class?) need to repay.

Like I'll happily praise the people who fought and died to stop the Nazis, but they no longer exist and I owe nothing at all to the men of the Kremlin in 2024, or their bootboys whose war has absolutely nothing in common with 80 years prior.
 
Rob Ray said:
I've always been a bit baffled by the "we owe them a debt" narrative tbh, as though

a) the Red Army was doing it for our benefit
b) the USSR which oversaw that effort and sacrificed all those millions of lives still exists
c) anyone much from the period is still alive to thank
d) we're supposed to consider the actions of a self-interested nationstate defending its own borders to comprise a collective debt that "we" (what as, a part of the global working class?) need to repay.

Like I'll happily praise the people who fought and died to stop the Nazis, but they no longer exist and I owe nothing at all to the men of the Kremlin in 2024, or their bootboys whose war has absolutely nothing in common with 80 years prior.
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We get it. You stand squarely by NATO.
 
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