Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Pickman's model]

Transnistria is already basically occupied by Russian military with a friendly pro-Russia government.

Moldovan population without Transnistria is less than 2 million people. Ukraine's pre-war population was 41 million. Ukraine's area is also around 18x the size of Moldova. Similar situation with the Baltic States being relatively tiny both in size and population.

Also it isn't really just Russia is it? China is pretending to be neutral but you can get bet they had a hand in getting North Korea to send troops. If Russia wins in Ukraine you can bet on more open and brazen Chinese support for Russian rearmament as they become less dependent on trade with western countries.

I said earlier in the thread some people are stuck viewing the world through the paradigm of the Iraq War era and the US unipolar moment. But that was 20 years ago and the world was very different then - China's total GDP size had only just overtaken Italy's in 2003. We are already in a multipolar world. Russia having the confidence for all out war with Ukraine would have been unthinkable 20 years ago and the rise of China is the main reason why.

An attack on the Baltics or Moldova, and a Bosnian crisis (probably spreading to Kosovo) manufactured by Putin ally and Republika Srpska President Milorad Dodik is also likely shortly after Russian victory in Ukraine. Baltic states is the least likely of all these and will probably come last, but if NATO reaches a point where Putin feels it is unlikely to enforce article 5 then he will seek to prove that NATO is over as this would finally restore Russian hegemony over Eastern Europe after a 4 decade interregnum.

This won't happen immediately after Russian victory but it won't be more than a decade down the line either. Letting Putin win in Ukraine will not bring peace.

That's a load of auld bollocks, strawmen eg letting putin win in Ukraine will not bring peace. Goal post moving eg not just Russia. Dull assertion eg an attack on the baltics likely. Contradiction eg an attack on baltics likely er no it it's not. Perhaps you shouldn't post in the wee small hours

 

[Rimbaud]

That's a load of auld bollocks, strawmen eg letting putin win in Ukraine will not bring peace. Goal post moving eg not just Russia. Dull assertion eg an attack on the baltics likely. Contradiction eg an attack on baltics likely er no it it's not. Perhaps you shouldn't post in the wee small hours

I'm posting in the wee small hours because I got back from Taiwan less than 2 days before, so I'm jetlagged still.

Your counterargument isn't really convincing.

 

[Pickman's model]

I'm posting in the wee small hours because I got back from Taiwan less than 2 days before, so I'm jetlagged still.

Your counterargument isn't really convincing.

I'm not making a counterargument as there's fuck all argument in your post to counter, it's a tissue of phallacies

 

[Rimbaud]

I'm not making a counterargument as there's fuck all argument in your post to counter, it's a tissue of phallacies

The thrust of your argument was that Russia is incapable of conquering or attacking Moldova or any of the Baltic States.

My counter argument was that these countries are comparatively tiny and in the case of Moldova also militarily far weaker and 20% of the population is already effectively occupied by Russia, and also that Russia's alliance with China will allow it to recover military strength quicker than you expect.

Certainly something to counter there, and you haven't really countered any of it beyond ad hominems and bluster about supposedly moving goalposts.

 

[Pickman's model]

The thrust of your argument was that Russia is incapable of conquering or attacking Moldova or any of the Baltic States.

My counter argument was that these countries are comparatively tiny and in the case of Moldova also militarily far weaker and 20% of the population is already effectively occupied by Russia, and also that Russia's alliance with China will allow it to recover military strength quicker than you expect.

Certainly something to counter there, and you haven't really countered any of it beyond ad hominems and bluster about supposedly moving goalposts.

Oh I have. Only either you've not read it or you haven't understood it. Take counterinsurgency for example. You've not addressed the point I made on that. You're blithely saying China will help Russia recover military strength. You dont say how, almost certainly by supplying parts, dual use technology or weapons I suppose you had in mind.

but it's not things but trained soldiers Russia will be short of. Soldiers trained not in assaulting enemy positions but in fighting wars among the people, in which the population, nor territory, is the prize. You're blithely saying Moldova is militarily weaker. Yeh. It doesn't have the big battalions. But you don't need many people for an insurgency, as we have seen in the six counties.

And it does have distance between itself and moscow. You're reluctant to explain how troops and supplies will move to Transnistria/Moldova other than through Ukraine. And from my pov it's definitely on the cards for there to be an insurgency in Ukraine after any cessation of major operations in the country, if events fall out as we expect.

 

[DownwardDog]

The thrust of your argument was that Russia is incapable of conquering or attacking Moldova or any of the Baltic States.

My counter argument was that these countries are comparatively tiny and in the case of Moldova also militarily far weaker and 20% of the population is already effectively occupied by Russia, and also that Russia's alliance with China will allow it to recover military strength quicker than you expect.

Certainly something to counter there, and you haven't really countered any of it beyond ad hominems and bluster about supposedly moving goalposts.

In the whole of 2024 the net territorial gain of the Russian Federation is about 1,700km2 (the same area as Worcestershire). If they are going all the way to the Baltic, it's going to take them a while.