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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, Feb 2022 - tangentially related crap

The clash over whether to commandeer Russia’s frozen assets
FT. 03/05/24
Confiscating hundreds of billions of foreign reserves could transform Ukraine’s war. But the US and Europe disagree on how far to go
At the recent gathering of G20 finance ministers in Brazil, delegates were gripped by a deep sense of unease over a pressing issue: the potential seizure or use of Russian assets frozen under the western sanctions that followed its invasion of Ukraine.
Two ministers — Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed al-Jadaan and Indonesia’s Sri Mulyani Indrawati — were among those particularly alarmed by the idea. Were G7 countries seriously preparing to do this? And had they considered the full implications of such a drastic step?
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Their questions to their western counterparts cut to the heart of a fraught debate over whether hundreds of billions of euros in frozen Russian central bank assets should be mobilised to help fund Ukraine as the conflict there drags into a third year.
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Yossarian said:
The EU's already planning to give Ukraine the interest from the seized Russian assets, which isn't a bad start

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www.aljazeera.com

‘New ground is being broken’: EU seizes Russian profits for Ukraine

Ukraine wants to use $300bn in Russian central bank money held abroad to defeat it; Europe isn’t enthusiastic.
www.aljazeera.com www.aljazeera.com
Ukraine wants to use the estimated 210 billion euros ($228bn) of Russian central bank money held in European institutions to defeat Russia on the battlefield. The EU froze those assets in February 2022, immediately after Russia invaded Ukraine. Another 50 billion euros ($54bn) are frozen around the world.

“If the world has $300bn, why not use it?” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently said.
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After years of debate, the bloc decided on Tuesday to allow Ukraine to use just the interest earned by those accounts, which the EU believes would amount to about 2.5 to 3 billion euros ($2.7bn-$3.3bn) a year.

“This decision was the result of a lot of discussion and soul-searching,” an EU diplomatic source familiar with Ukrainian issues told Al Jazeera on condition of anonymity.
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International legal experts agree it is a big step.

“There’s no precedent for the freezing of assets on this scale, and therefore the issue of what to do with the interest was never this acute,” Anton Moiseienko, a lecturer in international law at Australian National University, told Al Jazeera. “In this sense, new ground is being broken.”
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more realistic assessment for the ukraine war, its worth listening these podcasts.

www.buzzsprout.com

Ukraine Russia War Talk

The Ukraine-Russia War Podcast is a discussion of the most up to date and important strategic and geopolitical issues surrounding the war in Ukraine, with hosts Phillips O'Brien and Mykola Bielieskov.You are welcome to get in touch by email at ukr...
www.buzzsprout.com www.buzzsprout.com


The Ukraine-Russia War Podcast is a discussion of the most up to date and important strategic and geopolitical issues surrounding the war in Ukraine, with hosts Phillips O'Brien and Mykola Bielieskov.

Phillips O'Brien is a Professor of Strategic Studies at the University of St. Andrews

Mykola Bielieskov, Research Fellow at the National Institute for Strategic Studies (Ukraine) and Senior Analyst at 'Come Back Alive', Ukrainian charity which provides fighting equipment for Ukrainin soldiers .
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I've listen to last 2 podcasts, I thought they made some good points.
 
Why are NATO and China facing off over Ukraine?
aljazeera. 11 Jul 2024
Leaders of NATO nations have described China as a “decisive enabler” of Russia’s war on Ukraine in the sharpest criticism levelled yet by the alliance at Beijing over the conflict.
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While NATO members and China have traded barbs before, this statement – part of a communique issued on Wednesday by the alliance during its 75th anniversary summit in Washington, DC – the alliance had earlier refrained from such explicit allegations against Beijing on the Ukraine war.
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Here is more about the allegations made by NATO allies against China, how Beijing has responded and what’s next:
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Maybe one for the coming war with china thread?
 
10 years ago today Russia murdered 298 people who were simply trying to travel from Holland to Malaysia. The Russian state has consistently lied about the events of that day.

Of those found guilty in a court only one is in prison, Igor Girkin. Not due to his 298 murder convictions though, he's banged up in Russia for slagging off Putin's war efforts.
 
Anyone heard about/got any opinions on the arrest of Bogdan Syrotiuk? It sounds like the Ukranian government have decided to bang up the leader/possibly sole member of the WSWS's Ukranian franchise:
www.wsws.org

An Open Letter to the Ukrainian government: Release Bogdan Syrotiuk!

On Thursday, June 13, the following letter from the Socialist Equality Party and the International Editorial Board of the World Socialist Web Site will be delivered to Oksana Markarova, the ambassador of Ukraine, in Washington, D.C.
www.wsws.org

Which I suppose I probably have to oppose on principle, I get the impression that he must probably be incredibly annoying though.
 
Summary of Preliminary Lessons from Ukraine’s Offensive Operations, 2022–23 by RUSI which alleges inadequate assistance from the West and poor training/planning in the failure of the offensive. Link to the full report embedded near the top of the article.

rusi.org

Preliminary Lessons from Ukraine’s Offensive Operations, 2022–23

The purpose of this report is to examine the causes of the failure of the Ukrainian offensive in 2023 to avoid the repetition of such errors in the future and to inform the regeneration of offensive combat power in NATO militaries.
rusi.org rusi.org
 
The39thStep said:
Summary of Preliminary Lessons from Ukraine’s Offensive Operations, 2022–23 by RUSI which alleges inadequate assistance from the West and poor training/planning in the failure of the offensive. Link to the full report embedded near the top of the article.

rusi.org

Preliminary Lessons from Ukraine’s Offensive Operations, 2022–23

The purpose of this report is to examine the causes of the failure of the Ukrainian offensive in 2023 to avoid the repetition of such errors in the future and to inform the regeneration of offensive combat power in NATO militaries.
rusi.org rusi.org
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Fascinating reading. Worth a careful read of the whole report. First detailed and honest account to date in my view.
 
The39thStep said:
Summary of Preliminary Lessons from Ukraine’s Offensive Operations, 2022–23 by RUSI which alleges inadequate assistance from the West and poor training/planning in the failure of the offensive. Link to the full report embedded near the top of the article.

rusi.org

Preliminary Lessons from Ukraine’s Offensive Operations, 2022–23

The purpose of this report is to examine the causes of the failure of the Ukrainian offensive in 2023 to avoid the repetition of such errors in the future and to inform the regeneration of offensive combat power in NATO militaries.
rusi.org rusi.org
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sounds very reminiscent of what the head of the Ukrainian army Valerii Zaluzhnyi was saying (leading him to get fired)
 
Artaxerxes said:
Decent summary of negotiations and what that would and has actually meant over the years

samf.substack.com

Irreconcilable Differences

A guide to plans for negotiations between Ukraine and Russia.
samf.substack.com samf.substack.com
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good read.....
that piece also mentions this letter published last week in the FT https://archive.ph/zbIfj from former US and UK ambassadors to Russia - C&Ping it here to make life easier to find it:

Russia’s latest military gains in the Donetsk region (Report, July 5) reinforce the case for a negotiated settlement of the war in Ukraine. The US and its allies support Ukraine’s key war aim, which is a return to the 2014 frontiers, ie, Russia’s expulsion from Crimea and Donbas. But all informed analysts agree that short of a serious escalation of war, the likeliest outcome will be continued stalemate on the ground, with a not insignificant chance of a Russian victory.

This conclusion points to the desirability, even urgency, of a negotiated peace, not least for the sake of Ukraine itself. Reluctance by the official west to accept a negotiated peace rests on the belief that anything short of a complete Ukrainian victory would allow Putin to “get away with it”.

But this ignores by far the most important outcome of the war so far: that Ukraine has fought for its independence, and won it — as Finland did in 1939-40. Some territorial concessions would seem a small price to pay for the reality, rather than semblance, of independence.
If a peace based on roughly the present division of forces in Ukraine is inevitable, it is immoral not to try for it now.

Washington should start talks with Moscow on a new security pact which would safeguard the legitimate security interests of both Ukraine and Russia. The announcement of these talks should be immediately followed by a time-limited ceasefire in Ukraine. The ceasefire would enable Russian and Ukrainian leaders to negotiate in a realistic, constructive manner.

We urge the world’s leaders to initiate or support such an initiative. The longer the war continues the more territory Ukraine is likely to lose, and the more the pressure for escalation up to a nuclear level is likely to grow. The sooner peace is negotiated the more lives will be saved, the sooner the reconstruction of Ukraine will start and the more quickly the world can be pulled back from the very dangerous brink at which it currently stands.
 
I don't think anyone on this forum has suggested they will. They enable Ukraine to defend itself somewhat better from airstrikes and drones. but make little material difference to the flow of the war itself. Hopefully they can make enough of a difference to allow Ukrainians to have power this winter; but even that is a big ask from a few dozen aircraft.
 
Chz said:
I don't think anyone on this forum has suggested they will. They enable Ukraine to defend itself somewhat better from airstrikes and drones. but make little material difference to the flow of the war itself. Hopefully they can make enough of a difference to allow Ukrainians to have power this winter; but even that is a big ask from a few dozen aircraft.
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Having power this winter would require the rebuilding of the destroyed thermal and hydro electric plants. This won’t be happening. It’s not repairs it’s full clearance and rebuild.
 
They’ve already said that they won’t be using the F16s at the front due to the risk from air defence, they’ll be used to take down cruise missiles etc. or launch stand-off munitions from some distance back.
 
ska invita said:
good read.....
that piece also mentions this letter published last week in the FT https://archive.ph/zbIfj from former US and UK ambassadors to Russia - C&Ping it here to make life easier to find it:

Russia’s latest military gains in the Donetsk region (Report, July 5) reinforce the case for a negotiated settlement of the war in Ukraine. The US and its allies support Ukraine’s key war aim, which is a return to the 2014 frontiers, ie, Russia’s expulsion from Crimea and Donbas. But all informed analysts agree that short of a serious escalation of war, the likeliest outcome will be continued stalemate on the ground, with a not insignificant chance of a Russian victory.

This conclusion points to the desirability, even urgency, of a negotiated peace, not least for the sake of Ukraine itself. Reluctance by the official west to accept a negotiated peace rests on the belief that anything short of a complete Ukrainian victory would allow Putin to “get away with it”.

But this ignores by far the most important outcome of the war so far: that Ukraine has fought for its independence, and won it — as Finland did in 1939-40. Some territorial concessions would seem a small price to pay for the reality, rather than semblance, of independence.
If a peace based on roughly the present division of forces in Ukraine is inevitable, it is immoral not to try for it now.

Washington should start talks with Moscow on a new security pact which would safeguard the legitimate security interests of both Ukraine and Russia. The announcement of these talks should be immediately followed by a time-limited ceasefire in Ukraine. The ceasefire would enable Russian and Ukrainian leaders to negotiate in a realistic, constructive manner.

We urge the world’s leaders to initiate or support such an initiative. The longer the war continues the more territory Ukraine is likely to lose, and the more the pressure for escalation up to a nuclear level is likely to grow. The sooner peace is negotiated the more lives will be saved, the sooner the reconstruction of Ukraine will start and the more quickly the world can be pulled back from the very dangerous brink at which it currently stands.
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The problem is that many people - including myself - think that if a negotiated settlement involves gifting stolen land to Russia, that absolutely won't be the end of it.

Russia would see this as a victory and simply carry on their illegal war at a later date. I mean, would you trust anything Putin says?
 
editor said:
The problem is that many people - including myself - think that if a negotiated settlement involves gifting stolen land to Russia, that absolutely won't be the end of it.

Russia would see this as a victory and simply carry on their illegal war at a later date. I mean, would you trust anything Putin says?
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As has been said repeatedly, peace settlements aren't reliant on trust, they are enforced militarily. Any accord would oblige Western countries to engage militarily if the peace deal was broken. For Russia to break the deal would be to start a war with the West.
 
ska invita said:
As has been said repeatedly, peace settlements aren't reliant on trust, they are enforced militarily. Any accord would oblige Western countries to engage militarily if the peace deal was broken. For Russia to break the deal would be to start a war with the West.
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The Russian state has got away with committing war crimes on an almost daily rate and their illegal invasion - and the murders of children and civilians has pretty much gone unpunished

I wouldn't be surprised if Putin feels empowered by the lack of retribution he's suffered and may well think it's worth the risk of kicking off again, regardless of any deal that's been brokered.
 
The war has ground to a stalemate and almost completely left the US news cycle. This certainly will work to Putin's favor
 
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