Ukraine after the war

[not-bono-ever]

Quite a lot to flog off in Ukraine to the US, EU, and possibly China . Ukraine also holds lithium deposits of around 500,000 tons

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Yeps,plenty of resources but the state owned enterprise system was what I was referring to . Much of it is monopolistic , all of it is corrupt. I would assume that once you strip out the rigged system aspect that had kept the assets owned by SOE’s , then there might not be much that anyone really wants.

In July this year iirc, Kiev did announce a fire sale proposal for what is left of its SOE portfolio .

This pre invasion written paper on the Ukrainian crony capitalism structure dies provide a bit more detail as to what was going on

https://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/2021-07/2021-07-01-ukraine-crony-capitalism-lough.pdf

 

[not-bono-ever]

They are rich in natural resources - particularly land. There's a reason Ukraine is known as the "breadbasket of the world".

There’s a shitload of land that had already gone to the big Agro giants pre invasion

 

[RD2003]

Even Mikhail Bulgakov, long feted as an anti-Bolshevik by western liberals, is persona-non-grata in his native Ukraine.

Post-war Ukraine seems set to be a slightly surreal place, in denial about its own history. Fascists are freedom fighters, and there was never any connection to Russia anyway...

‘Propaganda literature’: calls to close Mikhail Bulgakov museum in Kyiv

The Master and Margarita writer’s antipathy to Ukrainian nationalism has led to some demanding his old house be renamed or repurposed

www.theguardian.com

 

[tim]

Even Mikhail Bulgakov, long feted as an anti-Bolshevik by western liberals, is persona-non-grata in his native Ukraine.

Post-war Ukraine seems set to be a slightly surreal place, in denial about its own history. Fascists are freedom fighters, and there was never any connection to Russia anyway...

‘Propaganda literature’: calls to close Mikhail Bulgakov museum in Kyiv

The Master and Margarita writer’s antipathy to Ukrainian nationalism has led to some demanding his old house be renamed or repurposed

www.theguardian.com

I know very few places that are not in denial about their own histories. I doubt that postwar Ukraine or Russia will be any different.

 

[nogojones]

Politico suggesting that post war expectations will be very high for Ukrainians and that while Zelenskys ratings during the war have been sky high that doesn't reflect how he's considered in peacetime. Also that another Maidan could easily be on the cards.

Ukraine could be looking at another Maidan

After the war, there will be high expectations, but it will be a perilous and difficult slog for Ukraine to rebuild and reform.

www.politico.eu

 

[The39thStep]

Politico suggesting that post war expectations will be very high for Ukrainians and that while Zelenskys ratings during the war have been sky high that doesn't reflect how he's considered in peacetime. Also that another Maidan could easily be on the cards.

Ukraine could be looking at another Maidan

After the war, there will be high expectations, but it will be a perilous and difficult slog for Ukraine to rebuild and reform.

www.politico.eu

Having so many separate threads on Ukraine sometimes has its benefits however this article would be a good contribution to some of yesterday's discussion about corruption/reform/Maidan issues on the 'main' thread. .

 

[RedRedRose]

Al Jazeera | Ukraine's Other Land Grab
Report / podcast indicates there is a lot of speculation and pressure to privatise Ukrainian land. Meaning land ownership could highly contested after the war.

 

[Isambard]

Al Jazeera | Ukraine's Other Land Grab
Report / podcast indicates there is a lot of speculation and pressure to privatise Ukrainian land. Meaning land ownership could highly contested after the war.

Yeah, apparently BlackRock has bought up a LOT of land which is of course one of Ukraine's primary resources.

The future of whatever is left of the Ukrainian state after the bosses have finished fighting is, I still fear, another zone for neo-liberal experiments at the expense of the working class.

 

[weltweit]

Even if the Russians go home.

They will leave their landmines behind.

 

[RD2003]

Looks like having to deal with the legacy of the coming use of cluster bombs will be an issue after it's over.


Human Rights Watch has called on Russia and Ukraine to stop using cluster bombs, and urged the US not to supply the munitions to Kyiv, amid reports the Biden administration is poised to include the controversial weapons in a new military aid package.

Ukrainian and Russian forces have used cluster munitions that caused numerous civilian deaths and serious injuries, Human Rights Watch said in a report on Thursday, calling on both sides to immediately stop using the “inherently indiscriminate” weapons.

Ukraine fired cluster munition rockets into Russian-controlled areas in and near the eastern Ukrainian city of Izium last year, causing many casualties among Ukrainian civilians, the rights group said, citing interviews with more than 100 residents, witnesses and local emergency personnel. The Ukrainian attacks killed at least eight civilians and wounded at least 15 civilians in Izium, it said.

The casing of a Russian cluster bomb rocket east of the port city of Mykolaiv, Ukraine in March. Photograph: Scott Peterson/Getty Images
The group has previously reported that Russia’s use of cluster bombs in Ukraine resulted in the deaths of scores of civilians, and the United Nations human rights council has also documented the use of such bombs by both sides.

“Cluster munitions used by Russia and Ukraine are killing civilians now and will continue to do so for many years,” said Mary Wareham, acting arms director at Human Rights Watch.

Both sides should immediately stop using them and not try to get more of these indiscriminate weapons.

Transferring cluster bombs to Ukraine would inevitably cause long-term suffering for civilians, the group said. It warned that the use of cluster munitions in areas with civilians makes an attack indiscriminate in violation of international humanitarian law, and possibly a war crime.


Meanwhile...

Mykhailo Podolyak, a key adviser to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, has criticised a report by Human Rights Watch calling on both sides to stop using cluster bombs, accusing the rights group of “helplessness, spinelessness and absolute immorality”.

The rights group argued that transferring cluster bombs to Ukraine would inevitably cause long-term suffering for civilians, amid reports the Biden administration is poised to include the controversial weapons in a new military aid package.

Posting to Twitter, Podolyak said the HRW was “launching an aggressive lobbying campaign” to disrupt the provision of weapons to Ukraine. “Is this a joke? Is it a prank?” he wrote.

 

[ska invita]

A sobering read with lots of detail on the extent of the sell off

Reconstructing Ukraine

The 2023 Ukraine Recovery Conference (URC23) ended in London last Friday. It was a continuation of the cycle of meetings beginning in 2017. The London URC aimed to build on the commitments agreed …

thenextrecession.wordpress.com

 

[TopCat]

They are shaping up the country for fast track EU membership. The Romanians had to get rid of all collective bargaining to get in.

 

[Chz]

There’s a shitload of land that had already gone to the big Agro giants pre invasion

An amusing aside to all of this. As John Deere has been fighting the Right to Repair laws and locking down their farm equipment, the hacks to manage your own JD stuff have mostly come from... Ukraine. I'm sure Deere is campaigning right now to Congress to make banning this a condition of the next wave of armaments.

 

[RD2003]

A young Ukrainian speaks. Somewhat realistically imo.

'There is also a feeling of inescapable darkness to the music. Elements of dread hover like ominous clouds about to unleash a storm – but the storm itself never comes. “The whole idea of this music is the end of times,” Yatsun says. “It corresponds to my life and my beliefs that the future is bleak.” Yatsun also cites the late theorist and music critic Mark Fisher, and his writings on hauntology, as being linked to the work. “It relates to the idea of a lost future,” he says. “Since the 2013 uprising, most of my life I’ve been living in a condition without stability or any clear vision of a future. I can’t predict my future because I don’t even believe in the idea of one, because right now it’s being cancelled. Through this music I have nostalgia for times I have never experienced. It’s completely out of reality – more like a fantasy.” '

‘I don’t believe in the idea of a future’: the Ukrainian producer who invented dungeon rap

Musician Alex Yatsun’s house was shelled by Russian forces, but he has focused the trauma and apocalyptic feeling into atmospheric tracks that help him get ‘out of reality’

www.theguardian.com

 

[LDC]

Could go in a few threads but sticking it here as the section that I think is very worth listening to is from about 24.00mins in and it covers possibilities for post-war Ukraine.

It's an interview with Professor Olga Onuch about internal Ukraine politics, and has some really interesting polling info, as well as a discussion on Ukraine post-war and rebuilding and the tensions with how that might play, covers things like the role of private companies, what kind of Ukraine people mighn want post-war (she touches on ethno-nationalist stuff), etc.

Few short bits that stuck out: Zelensky has overwhelming support (76%+), and so does support for the continued war and the refusal to surrender any territory. She did some good warning about poll data, but pointed out percentages for both those things are likely higher as military personnel and the huge numbers of middle aged women with kids who are abroad can't vote are statistically much more in favour of both so figures are likely to actually be much higher.

I know it's The Telegraph, but their Ukraine live blog is often very good unlike much of the rest of the batshit paper. It's obviously compulsory to listen to while in your camo pajamas or at the very least underpants. The39thStep think you might like this.

 

[The39thStep]

Could go in a few threads but sticking it here as the section that I think is very worth listening to is from about 24.00mins in.

It's an interview with Professor Olga Onuch about internal Ukraine politics, and has some really interesting polling info, as well as a discussion on Ukraine post-war and rebuilding and the tensions with how that might play, covers things like the role of private companies, what kind of Ukraine people mighn want post-war (she touches on ethno-nationalist stuff), etc.

Few short bits that stuck out: Zelensky has overwhelming support (76%+), and so does support for the continued war and the refusal to surrender any territory. She did some good warning about poll data, but pointed out percentages for both those things are likely higher as military personnel and the huge numbers of middle aged women with kids who are abroad can't vote are statistically much more in favour of both so figures are likely to actually be much higher.

I know it's The Telegraph, but their Ukraine live blog is often very good unlike much of the rest of the batshit paper. It's obviously compulsory to listen to while in your camo pajamas or at the very least underpants. The39thStep think you might like this.

Not entirely sure why I was the poster you associated with camouflage pyjamas but I'll give it a listen.

 

[LDC]

Not entirely why I was the poster you associated with camouflage pyjamas but I'll give it a listen.

No, camo jim-jams was attempt at a dig at us war fetish types, of which I'd have thought some would out think listening to The Telegraph would qualify us as.

 

[The39thStep]

No, camo jim-jams was attempt at a dig at us war fetish types, of which I'd have thought some would out think listening to The Telegraph would qualify us as.

I used to get the Telegraph on Saturdays for years when everyone got newspapers as I liked the gardening and recipe sections . One of my daughters got me a subscription to it for Fathers Day during covid which I’ve kept tbh . It’s full of crackpot column filling ‘journalists ‘ for most of its U.K. politics however it also has lots of interesting non rabid stuff .

My last attempt to flush out the army surplus combat trouser wearers on this thread didn’t yield much aside from a poster who had some but alas also weight problems. However using the NATO handbook I’m now probing for weaknesses.

 

[RD2003]

Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the head of the office of Volodymyr Zelenskiy, says there can be compromise on the president’s peace formula for Ukraine.

Podolyak said this includes negotiations around“immediate ceasefires” and “negotiations here and now” that he says would “give Russia time to stay in the occupied territories”.

 

[dilute micro]

Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the head of the office of Volodymyr Zelenskiy, says there can be compromise on the president’s peace formula for Ukraine.

Podolyak said this includes negotiations around“immediate ceasefires” and “negotiations here and now” that he says would “give Russia time to stay in the occupied territories”.

There can be "no compromise".

 

[RD2003]

There can be "no compromise".

Yes. Dream on Podolyak.

 

[dilute micro]

And the reason for this is stated in the tweet - "One should have no illusions: any "Minsk-3" will only prolong the war in the future."

 

[RD2003]

And the reason for this is stated in the tweet - "One should have no illusions: any "Minsk-3" will only prolong the war in the future."

I know. It's only going to prolong the war until the inevitable unsatisfactory compromise.

 

[RD2003]

I've always had the feeling, as I've said before in some threads, that the Russian regime may be less interested in some kind of recognisable victory than making Ukraine unviable.


'Ultimately, no matter the result of the war, the damage has already been done. Ukraine’s infrastructure is in ruins, its economy in shambles, and its ongoing decline into failed statehood has been terminally accelerated. The people of Ukraine are still fleeing the country in search of better lives, and those who remain are dependent on foreign aid. The pill will be even more bitter to swallow if Ukraine’s counteroffensive continues to stall and it must accept territorial losses — which could lead to a coup against Zelenskyy, or perhaps even the onset of civil war.

Even if Ukraine achieves the total liberation of the territories currently occupied by Russia, its difficulties will only increase. First, winning such a campaign might take years, and would further damage and depopulate eastern Ukraine and Crimea. Ukraine’s economy would continue to be strangled by the displacement of workers, infrastructure damage and investor uncertainty. Protracted warfare may achieve political and moral objectives, but any recaptured territories will become a significant economic and humanitarian burden on Kyiv. At the same time, the loss of wartime unity and foreign aid, combined with the high cost of rebuilding and resettling, is likely to create further political instability. Even in victory, Ukraine’s future is bleak.'

Ukraine could win but still become a failed state

Even if Ukraine achieves the total liberation of the territories currently occupied by Russia, its difficulties will only increase.

thehill.com

 

[RD2003]

Another reason why Ukraine after the war, no matter what the outcome, is going to have a difficult time.


'Persistent wartime attacks on schools in Ukraine mean that only about a third of school-age children there are attending classes fully in person and many are falling behind, Unicef said on Tuesday.

Reuters reports:

Beyond Ukraine, more than half of the children whose families have fled the conflict to seven countries are not enrolled in national education systems, Unicef said, citing language barriers and overstretched education systems.
Some schools have suffered direct hits and others have closed down as a precaution since Russia’s invasion 18 months ago, which has involved missile and artillery attacks on residential areas across the country.
“Inside Ukraine, attacks on schools have continued unabated, leaving children deeply distressed and without safe spaces to learn,” it said.
The war followed earlier Covid disruptions, meaning some Ukrainian children were facing a fourth consecutive school year of disruptions as they return to classes this week after the summer break, Unicef said.
“Not only has this left Ukraine’s children struggling to progress in their education, but they are also struggling to retain what they learned when their schools were fully functioning,” said Regina De Dominicis, Unicef regional director for Europe and Central Asia.
Around half of Ukraine’s teachers have reported a deterioration in students’ abilities in language, reading and mathematics, it said.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...08590bcc9900ac#block-64edb80a8f08590bcc9900ac

 

[RD2003]

War doesn't impede the capitalist impulse.


'About an hour after air raid sirens sounded in the early hours of 10 August, residents on Yaroslavska Street in the heart of Kyiv’s hip Podil district heard the crash of a building coming down.

Some looked out of their windows expecting to see the smoking remains of a Russian missile. Instead, in the dawn light, two excavators were tearing apart an elegant 200-year-old mansion.'


'The war, perhaps surprisingly, has not diminished the appetite for prime property in Kyiv, or halted the scramble to get hold of empty plots for construction. Property prices dipped only briefly when Russian forces besieged the city last spring, then rebounded as its streets returned to life.'


'Relaxing on a sofa and waving documents that he claimed backed his position, Serhiy Boyarchukov said he plans to build four storeys of apartment hotels and a “clubhouse” where the elegant single-storey house – a rare example of residential wooden construction in the city – had stood.

“There was no complete demolition, there was a partial dismantling, and the basement and one wall stayed in place,” he said, adding that the work was authorised under a “reconstruction permit” issued by the culture ministry in March.

He did not address questions about why the demolition began at 5am during an air raid alert.'

‘The city wants to finish off what Russia’s attacks began’: Kyiv residents fear property grab

Damaged historic buildings are allegedly among those developers wish to demolish for profit in complicity with the authorities

www.theguardian.com

 

[Pickman's model]

War doesn't impede the capitalist impulse.


'About an hour after air raid sirens sounded in the early hours of 10 August, residents on Yaroslavska Street in the heart of Kyiv’s hip Podil district heard the crash of a building coming down.

Some looked out of their windows expecting to see the smoking remains of a Russian missile. Instead, in the dawn light, two excavators were tearing apart an elegant 200-year-old mansion.'


'The war, perhaps surprisingly, has not diminished the appetite for prime property in Kyiv, or halted the scramble to get hold of empty plots for construction. Property prices dipped only briefly when Russian forces besieged the city last spring, then rebounded as its streets returned to life.'


'Relaxing on a sofa and waving documents that he claimed backed his position, Serhiy Boyarchukov said he plans to build four storeys of apartment hotels and a “clubhouse” where the elegant single-storey house – a rare example of residential wooden construction in the city – had stood.

“There was no complete demolition, there was a partial dismantling, and the basement and one wall stayed in place,” he said, adding that the work was authorised under a “reconstruction permit” issued by the culture ministry in March.

He did not address questions about why the demolition began at 5am during an air raid alert.'

‘The city wants to finish off what Russia’s attacks began’: Kyiv residents fear property grab

Damaged historic buildings are allegedly among those developers wish to demolish for profit in complicity with the authorities

www.theguardian.com

With the level of corruption in Ukraine it's no surprise property developers are taking full advantage of the war, as they did in London during and after the blitz

 

[Isambard]

I've been to Podil in Kyiv and it was lovely with cafés and park, street entertainment and cliff railway etc.
But like Prenzlauer Burg in Berlin after 1990 and other "in" districts, ripe for far reaching gentrification and profit extraction to the detriment of the old area and its residents.

 

[Pickman's model]

I've been to Podil in Kyiv and it was lovely with cafés and park, street entertainment and cliff railway etc.
But like Prenzlauer Burg in Berlin after 1990 and other "in" districts, ripe for far reaching gentrification and profit extraction to the detriment of the old area and its residents.

the last time i was in prenzlauer burg the payphones took aluminium coins

 

[RD2003]

Looks like it isn't going to be a particularly easy ride into the EU for either a united or diminished Ukraine.


'A third reason why Ukraine faces lengthy and potentially inconclusive talks with the EU is that existing members will have ample opportunity to change their minds. Even after the green light for negotiations is given, it can take months or years before talks begin, as Albania and North Macedonia have discovered to their disappointment, and as Moldova and Bosnia and Herzegovina soon could too.

When negotiations start, they can easily break down, as Turkey has found out on multiple occasions since 2005. After negotiating chapters have been closed, all EU member states must ratify the resulting accession treaty. Given the high stakes surrounding Ukrainian accession, it is conceivable that one or more countries will hold a referendum. As Brexit illustrates all too clearly, EU referendums are inherently unpredictable.'

Will Ukraine really join the EU? The answer lies with the countries facing the bill | Dermot Hodson

Upcoming membership talks must balance high political aspirations with thorny practical issues from subsidies to grain, says author Dermot Hodson

www.theguardian.com