After Ukraine, what’s next?
- Thread starter MrCurry
- Start date
planetgeli
There's no future in England's dreaming
Why? (And that's to kebabking too)
What yield posted is just huff 'n' puff 'n' stuff from a political party seeking re-election. And Lukashenko seems to me more intent on breaking heads inside his borders, not out. Long standing leaders (of non-wannabe superpowers) tend to defend what they've got, not go looking for trouble outside what they know they can handle.
Flying a couple of helicopters over an imaginary line is just theatre to please his mate in Moscow.
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
Poland would crush any planned military intervention by Belarus (which I think is highly unlikely) but the more troops that mass there, the more tension, the more saber rattling and theatre that happens, etc. all increase the chances of some kind of incidental confrontation, it might not then necessarily turn into anything more, depends on various other factors.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
For me, it's about desperation in Moscow, not Minsk looking to weigh in on Russia's side when it's all going tits up.
If Wagner stays in Belarus, I doubt that Lukashenko will have complete control of them - there's an argument that he doesn't have complete control of his own security/defence structures, and that that degree of control varies both from one to another, and as events sway the various visions of the future - so to think he would have complete control over a PMC sponsored by a foreign government is just Dreamland stuff.
I think all this stuff is messy, that a large area of the spectrum between peace and war, and between failed state anarchy and absolute dictatorship is a very grey area with few absolutes. I think the power/influence dynamic between Lukashenko, Putin, the Belarus security/defence structures, and the Russian security/defence structures is fluid, and that what's true one week might be rather less true the next week.
planetgeli
There's no future in England's dreaming
See I can see your points (LDC and kebabking ) but without trying to be Pickman-pedantic you have both kinda backtracked a bit from the original post of a 'catalysing confrontation being a matter of time'.
I can imagine sabre-rattling which carries risks but I just don't see it realistically 'turning into anything more'. As you both note, and I was getting at, Lukashenko certainly wouldn't be a winner in that happening. Which, I thought, only leaves some unilateral decision by Putin (coercing Lukashenko) to play hard ball with troops and shit. And I can't see that happening. Which is why I questioned you both. I don't believe Wagner are a serious issue (and haven't most left anyway? Did I dream that?). And though I'm willing to accept the fluidity of power dynamics between actors, a potentially 'catalysing confrontation' doesn't appear feasible to me without Putin and all his forces to the fore. And I don't see that ever being the case now for a country that's struggling to hold bits of eastern Ukraine.
I can imagine sabre-rattling which carries risks but I just don't see it realistically 'turning into anything more'. As you both note, and I was getting at, Lukashenko certainly wouldn't be a winner in that happening. Which, I thought, only leaves some unilateral decision by Putin (coercing Lukashenko) to play hard ball with troops and shit. And I can't see that happening. Which is why I questioned you both. I don't believe Wagner are a serious issue (and haven't most left anyway? Did I dream that?). And though I'm willing to accept the fluidity of power dynamics between actors, a potentially 'catalysing confrontation' doesn't appear feasible to me without Putin and all his forces to the fore. And I don't see that ever being the case now for a country that's struggling to hold bits of eastern Ukraine.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
I think it very much depends on the details - so is Wagner/whatever going to charge across the Polish border like 3rd Soviet Shock Army to do Uncle Vlad's bidding? No, Wagner have lost their armoured vehicles, there aren't that many of them, and Lukashenko has enough of a grip on his territory to stop that happening.
Is Wagner/whatever above smuggling a small team over the border and putting a bomb in a Polish shopping mall? No, it's stuff they've done before, and it's (imv) well within their capabilities while in Belarus - there are other options, things like sitting near Rezeszow airport with a bootfull of MANPADS, an assassination attempt on senior Polish officers, or the Ukrainian military liaison team in Poland - all are within Wagner/whatever capability, and probably too small in terms of footprint for the Belarusian structures who are taking Lukashenkos' orders that week to detect.
After that, luck of the draw - a bomb in a shopping mall that injures two is nothing, the same bomb that caused a fire and kills 40 isn't nothing.
Is Wagner/whatever above smuggling a small team over the border and putting a bomb in a Polish shopping mall? No, it's stuff they've done before, and it's (imv) well within their capabilities while in Belarus - there are other options, things like sitting near Rezeszow airport with a bootfull of MANPADS, an assassination attempt on senior Polish officers, or the Ukrainian military liaison team in Poland - all are within Wagner/whatever capability, and probably too small in terms of footprint for the Belarusian structures who are taking Lukashenkos' orders that week to detect.
After that, luck of the draw - a bomb in a shopping mall that injures two is nothing, the same bomb that caused a fire and kills 40 isn't nothing.
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
Maybe I was being slightly clumsy with my wording; I think a confrontation is becoming more of a matter of time, whether it then catalyses something wider depends. Lots of what could happen might intially be out of the hands of Putin and Lukashenko and not anyone's plan at all, and much more down to the units and commanders on the ground, how they react and how well they have control of their troops etc. But what kebabking says for the details.
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Polish leader needs to big up an external threat to play the hard man and get re-elected. Lukashenko likely needs something similar, so this grandstanding is possibly just mutually beneficial theatre.
Poland is spending an awful amount on armaments at the moment, so maybe they are serious, though suspect their fear is more of chaos in Ukraine or Russian success there rather than a threat from Belarus.
Poland is spending an awful amount on armaments at the moment, so maybe they are serious, though suspect their fear is more of chaos in Ukraine or Russian success there rather than a threat from Belarus.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Gunter Fehlinger amongst other interests is the Chair of European Committee for NATO Enlargement . However, lets just call him a NATO cheerleader who like hundreds of other influencers/speakers /self styled experts have been carving out a social and physical media presence, lobbying the neo con fringes , speaking at conferences, and making some income.
In a competitive market of Western and eurocentric rightwing ideas, he found a little bit of fame for his seminar that proposed splitting Russia up into 31 states . Having now attracted a mix of 'representatives 'of some minorities in Russia , MEPs, and naturally American think tanks the proposal is now for 46 new states.
Gunther has other plans , first Africa
His next proposals have been to divide Brazil
In a competitive market of Western and eurocentric rightwing ideas, he found a little bit of fame for his seminar that proposed splitting Russia up into 31 states . Having now attracted a mix of 'representatives 'of some minorities in Russia , MEPs, and naturally American think tanks the proposal is now for 46 new states.
Gunther has other plans , first Africa
His next proposals have been to divide Brazil
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
what an utter cretin
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
You'd think so but here is the speakers' list for the conference he promoted and spoke at . There's gold in them hills
Leadership of Free Nations of Postrussia Forum
www.freenationsrf.org
agricola
a genuine importer of owls
You'd think so but here is the speakers' list for the conference he promoted and spoke at . There's gold in them hills
Leadership of Free Nations of Postrussia Forum
Not sure what amuses me most - the chaps near the bottom who look like Comicon attendees dressed as Joffrey Baratheon and Dr Hans Zharkov, or the fact the one UK attendee has just been selected as a Lib Dem PPC.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Well spotted. Right old rag bag of attendees.
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