Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[ska invita]

So cash-wise, this means both the US and EU billions are on hold - I do wonder how long Ukraine can hold it's war economy together while the bickering goes on.

The FT had an answer to that, I posted a few days ago - in case you didnt see it....

"The financial pressures facing Ukraine are immense — and relentless. The government uses all of its tax revenues to cover defence spending — amounting to about half of its public expenditure. While Ukraine has received nearly $100bn worth of weapons and military training, it also needs foreign aid to pay for the government, public services, pensions and benefits. This requires $41bn in external financing next year, according to the budget passed by parliament last month.

It was counting on $18bn from the EU, $8.5bn from the US, $5.4bn from the IMF, $1.5bn from other development banks and $1bn from the UK. Kyiv is still negotiating with other partners, such as Japan and Canada. Although some of the required money will be paid whatever happens in Washington or Brussels, Kyiv needs cash to start flowing next month. If it fails to come through and Kyiv cannot borrow enough domestically, it may have to resort to monetary financing by the central bank, which could unleash hyperinflation and put financial stability at risk."

...report I read this morning suggests EU may well get the money together in January, which seems about how long Ukraine can hold out....US money even less clear

 

[Pickman's model]

So cash-wise, this means both the US and EU billions are on hold - I do wonder how long Ukraine can hold it's war economy together while the bickering goes on.

Not so long, I suspect, with the ruinous interest rate on many of the loans kyiv has taken out - not to mention the need to pay the public sector etc as ska points out

 

[steveo87]

I've not been on this thread in a while...probably won't be back in a while either...

 

[Pickman's model]

I've not been on this thread in a while...probably won't be back in a while either...

cheers for looking in and letting us know

 

[steveo87]

cheers for looking in and letting us know

 

[The39thStep]

Going back to the EU/Ukraine decisions. The agreement on Ukraine joining due to Orban's abstention was described as "An EU official, who insisted on not being quoted by name because the summit negotiations were private, said Mr Orban was "momentarily absent from the room in a pre-agreed and constructive manner" when the decision was made."

However, the budget proposal for aid to Ukraine fell due to Orban's veto . The budget will be discussed again in January so plenty of time for Christmas presents to be found under the tree.

 

[WouldBe]

You haven't

I've not disagreed with him, at least not publicly.

 

[StoneRoad]

ISW two latest publications on the russian invasion are of interest ...

A significant chunk of the 14th December situation report covered Putin's "Direct Line" and annual press conference.
He repeated his maximalist aims and other 'boilerplate' rhetoric, including a desire for regime change in Kyiv.

Institute for the Study of War

Russian President Vladimir Putin displayed notable confidence in publicly discussing Russia’s war on Ukraine during a joint event combining his annual press conference and “Direct Line” forum on December 14 but did not clearly define his envisioned end st

www.understandingwar.org

The previous publication is also worth reading.

Institute for the Study of War

The United States has a much higher stake in Russia's war on Ukraine than most people think. A Russian conquest of all of Ukraine is by no means impossible if the United States cuts off all military assistance and Europe follows suit. Such an outcome

www.understandingwar.org

An assessment why "the west" and the USA can't afford for russia to "win" by occupying the whole of Ukraine.

 

[Pickman's model]

I've not disagreed with him, at least not publicly.

it'll just be a low window for you then

 

[sleaterkinney]

Debatable that Putin is a populist imo

Although he has backed them in order to stir things up.

 

[krtek a houby]

No one fancies you. Not even you. And look how you've turned out, like gollum without the ring

wow!

 

[krtek a houby]

No one fancies you. Not even you. And look how you've turned out, like gollum without the ring

He's a very angry person,and very spanner ring a dong ding

 

[krtek a houby]

Japan says it as it is

Japan expands sanctions over Russia's Ukraine invasion

Tokyo added to its sanctions list 57 organizations in Russia and six others in countries.

www.japantimes.co.jp

 

[tim]

As for Alex Jones, he's a bit loud and hyper for my liking, that's not to diss him, him and Tucker Carlson (also someone I get a vague bad feeling about) talked about Alex predicting 9/11
As I say though, not stating facts, just putting this out there.

You've fallen a long way down that rabbit hole. We'll need to send down ferrets to rescue you.

 

[wow]

No one fancies you. Not even you. And look how you've turned out, like gollum without the ring

Like Gollum without the ring.

 

[krtek a houby]

Like Gollum without the ring.

Hopefully you're not far from Mount Doom.

In the meantime, where do you stand on the ongoing conflict, btw?

Should Ukraine accept its fate and cede territory to Putin? Is its upcoming membership of the EU a bad idea? Will Joe Biden be punished for starting a war?

 

[wow]

No, no, no

 

[krtek a houby]

You've fallen a long way down that rabbit hole. We'll need to send down ferrets to rescue you.

It was Joe Rogan the last time. Worrying stuff

 

[krtek a houby]

No, no, no

Instead of quoting pop songs, perhaps you might wish to discuss the actual topic. Or does your hatred for the site prevent you from getting involved?

You're an absolute wrong un, for sure, but am giving you the benefit of the doubt that's it's not all venom and self loathing and that you have something to say...

How about it?

 

[Pickman's model]

No, no, no

You don't love us and we know now

 

[Pickman's model]

Instead of quoting pop songs, perhaps you might wish to discuss the actual topic. Or does your hatred for the site prevent you from getting involved?

You're an absolute wrong un, for sure, but am giving you the benefit of the doubt that's it's not all venom and self loathing and that you have something to say...

How about it?

Of course he has something to say. It's just shit and not worth the reading.

 

[Dogsauce]

If they stopped doing so, would Russia still be able to fight the war?

Drones supplied by Iran made a big difference when Russia was on the back foot, driven back in the north-east and Kherson. The use of these drones meant air defence was required in cities (while they attacked civilian energy infrastructure) preventing Ukraine from being deployed near the front lines. Just in terrorising the population alone they have been valuable - think about the WW2 use of V1/V2s by Germany as a similar scenario.

The North Korean shells (at least a million supplied) has changed the situation on the front line - Russia relies heavily on artillery and had expended most of their stock - they went to NK because they needed to, while domestic production is increased (they’re now spending 15% of GDP on this war, a similar level of expenditure to the USSR just before collapse). This is how they’ve been making small advances over the last couple of months, while Ukraine faces a shortage and has to ration strikes. The only minor silver lining is that the quality of the NK stuff is very mixed, affecting accuracy and in worst (or best) scenarios causing barrel explosions on artillery.

Without this aid, I suspect things would not have been so good. Putin has an election next year, and while nobody expects that to be a particularly balanced affair, he’s still cautious and avoiding another general mobilisation, right now they are using mercenaries from Nepal and reportedly China to bolster troop numbers.

 

[StoneRoad]

Russia is also sourcing what is often just cannon fodder from prisons and the pool of mainly east Asian migrant labour.

also [e2a] if it isn't already noticeable, Russian artillery will be becoming increasingly inaccurate as a result of bore wear.

 

[Sweet FA]

just putting this out there.

I'd put it back where you found it tbh.

 

[Dogsauce]

Russia is also sourcing what is often just cannon fodder from prisons and the pool of mainly east Asian migrant labour.

also [e2a] if it isn't already noticeable, Russian artillery will be becoming increasingly inaccurate as a result of bore wear.

But they will expand their industrial capacity to prosecute war, and in time this will help them. NK ammo is a stop-gap to allow this to come online. Despite sanctions, they still have decent amount of money coming in, China and India are funding them via oil purchases and that’s not likely to change. They’re not stupid, they will adapt to the circumstances and innovate which will put them ahead of many other countries in experience of war. The worry should be what they do with this next.

 

[wow]

Of course he has something to say. It's just shit and not worth the reading.

:-(

 

[gosub]

Russia is also sourcing what is often just cannon fodder from prisons and the pool of mainly east Asian migrant labour.

also [e2a] if it isn't already noticeable, Russian artillery will be becoming increasingly inaccurate as a result of bore wear.

Total(for both sides) of dead now estimated 0.75 million

 

[TopCat]

Reports from soldiers trying to cross the river. https://archive.ph/6rrhS

 

[ska invita]

Reports from soldiers trying to cross the river. https://archive.ph/6rrhS

when i read about them crossing over the river my first thought is it makes them sitting ducks - it seems an undefendable position... i cynically presumed it was to change the narrative and make a positive headline about an offensive

 

[existentialist]

Reports from soldiers trying to cross the river. https://archive.ph/6rrhS

Good to see that you are finally acknowledging the courage and determination of the Ukrainian Army. Took you long enough...