Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[editor]

TBH, I'm surprised and disappointed you apparently needed to be reminded of it. Are those sort of comments and bannings so common that you genuinely couldn't remember?

Whatever we think of some of TopCat's posts on this thread, there's really no need to minimise the shit he was subjected to.

If I saw a genuine and credible death threat being delivered on these boards, I would have called the police immediately.

But BIG was renown for posting up random abusive shit that was all bluster and mainly ignored and - like most posters of his ilk - he was easily forgotten, once banned.

But thanks for your input. What's your thoughts of the deeply unpleasant and unprovoked personal comments that Top Cat has posted about me in recent times? Or am I just supposed to suck them up?

Anyway, this has nothing to do with the title of this thread, so I suggest you take it to the feedback forum if you wish to keep criticising me.

 

[TopCat]

Iran and N Korea send weapons to Russia

If they stopped doing so, would Russia still be able to fight the war?

 

[Rob Ray]

Obviously it's not in the gift of any one person, putin, zelensky, whoever, to end the war unilaterally. That's taken as read.

But it is in the gift of Putin to a degree that it clearly isn't for Zelensky, yet conversation often revolves around pillorying one while largely ignoring the other. Which I'm getting quite bored of hearing, hence the direction of questioning. Left to my own devices I'd barely witter about Zelensky at all (and not all that much about Putin either tbh).

 

[cupid_stunt]

But BIG was renown for posting up random abusive shit that was all bluster and mainly ignored and - like most posters of his ilk - he was easily forgotten, once banned.

Looking back, it seems it was FM that dealt with the banning at the time, so hardly surprising you would have forgotten about it.

 

[editor]

Looking back, it seems it was FM that dealt with the banning at the time, so hardly surprising you would have forgotten about it.

That is indeed correct. I can remember warning him several times but I'm not on these boards 24/7 and sometimes are unable to deal with reported posts, sometimes for a day or two.

Looking back at the thread and that horrific exchange between the two, I see that Top Cat was also guilty of threatening actual physical violence, which is something that usually gets a user banned immediately,

 

[Pickman's model]

But it is in the gift of Putin to a degree that it clearly isn't for Zelensky, yet conversation often revolves around pillorying one while largely ignoring the other. Which I'm getting quite bored of hearing, hence the direction of questioning. Left to my own devices I'd barely witter about Zelensky at all (and not all that much about Putin either tbh).

I don't think putin has the freedom of action you ascribe to him. Matters have taken on a life of their own and the only real opposition to him by members of the Russian elites - the curious wagner mutiny - seemed less to do with opposition to the war than opposition to the way it was being prosecuted. I daresay that if putin tried to stop things now you'd simply see him replaced by someone of a similar bent, and the war carry on. Putin's nailed his colours to this particular mast so firmly I don't think he could remove them even if he wanted to. But I look forward with eager anticipation to your cogent rebuttal.

 

[The39thStep]

That is indeed correct. I can remember warning him several times but I'm not on these boards 24/7 and sometimes are unable to deal with reported posts.

Looking back at the thread and that horrific exchange between the two, I see that Top Cat was threatening actual physical violence, which is something that usually gets a user banned immediately,

Who was that poster who was working out in the gym in the hope that he would meet up with you to sort some issue out? few years back.

 

[Rob Ray]

Straightforwardly I think he's long since set himself up to call time without losing power, especially once the election is over. Atm they're still attacking, but that can be called off at any time and he can switch to simply sitting on the de facto annexation of four provinces.

It's an at least partial victory as long as he has those, much of the rest can be dispensed with and the West will be only too happy to have a sigh of relief and pivot to bigger concerns, leaving Ukraine in untenable scenario 2.

 

[editor]

Who was that poster who was working out in the gym in the hope that he would meet up with you to sort some issue out? few years back.

Happily, I don't recall that either, but over the years I've had many very worrying credible threats against me, from individuals and right wing organisations.

The big difference for me to compared to almost every other poster is that my real life identity and location isn't that hard to find. Often these enraged people want to take out their frustrations with the boards on me personally, even when I haven't been involved in the discussions that made them so angry.

One group were calling up all my web clients demanding that i be sacked for 'allowing' a discussion on the boards that they disagreed with.

Anyway, I'm happy to talk about this in the feedback forum but let's try and keep this thread on topic!

 

[Pickman's model]

Straightforwardly I think he's long since set himself up to call time without losing power, especially once the election is over. Atm they're still attacking, but that can be called off at any time and he can switch to simply sitting on the de facto annexation of four provinces.

It's an at least partial victory as long as he has those, much of the rest can be dispensed with and the West will be only too happy to have a sigh of relief and pivot to bigger concerns, leaving Ukraine in untenable scenario 2.

Again, you're assuming he has freedom of movement on this issue and rather than blithely chatting about I reckon he'll call it quits after the election you might spare a few words that take into account the feelings of other senior Russian ministers and generals, not to mention the people. You're just repeating the general feeling here that it's all personal rule. I don't think he can so easily turn off the war tap as you do, because unless he can show a real gain, rather more than he's got atm, I suspect he'll be bumped out of office. He's given it the large so much about nazis and so on it'll be harder selling a compromise to the Russian people with such a large butcher's bill than you suppose.

 

[andysays]

If I saw a genuine and credible death threat being delivered on these boards, I would have called the police immediately.

But BIG was renown for posting up random abusive shit that was all bluster and mainly ignored and - like most posters of his ilk - he was easily forgotten, once banned.

But thanks for your input. What's your thoughts of the deeply unpleasant and unprovoked personal comments that Top Cat has posted about me in recent times? Or am I just supposed to suck them up?

Anyway, this has nothing to do with the title of this thread, so I suggest you take it to the feedback forum if you wish to keep criticising me.

I haven't noticed any posts where TC has accused you of domestic violence or suggested it's a shame no one has come to invade your home and murder your family, but if you point them out I'll happily condemn them.

 

[TopCat]

Can we get back on topic?

 

[Rob Ray]

Again, you're assuming he has freedom of movement on this issue and rather than blithely chatting about I reckon he'll call it quits after the election you might spare a few words that take into account the feelings of other senior Russian ministers and generals, not to mention the people. You're just repeating the general feeling here that it's all personal rule. I don't think he can so easily turn off the war tap as you do, because unless he can show a real gain, rather more than he's got atm, I suspect he'll be bumped out of office. He's given it the large so much about nazis and so on it'll be harder selling a compromise to the Russian people with such a large butcher's bill than you suppose.

I've not said it's personal rule, I've said he has a great deal of freedom to call time on the war in a way that Zelensky doesn't. You can call that blithe chatting if you wish (as though we do anything else on Urban), it's actually just an opinion you don't agree with. Which is fine, I didn't particularly agree with your view a year ago that nukes were likely imminent.

 

[StoneRoad]

If they stopped doing so, would Russia still be able to fight the war?

Probably, but likely that would be at a reduced tempo.
Nth Korea are, allegedly, supplying a large quantity of artillery shells, and other items.
Iran is still supplying Shahed drones and, allegedly, other missiles.

Both countries are helping Russia - and each other - to evade various sanctions imposed on them.

 

[The39thStep]

Going back to the EU ascension issue , I came across an interesting article on the Rzeczpospolita site , based on data from the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, who do a large amount of polling , on the attitude of Ukrainians to joining the EU. ( cut and pasted translation)

"Most Ukrainians believe that the country is not yet ready to join the EU and requires reforms. They do not trust the prosecutor's office and courts, they want to fight corruption.

In 2012, a majority of Ukrainians supported economic integration with Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. The revolution, annexation of Crimea, the war in Donbas and Russia's aggression that has been going on for over two years have changed this. Ukrainians made a geopolitical choice, because today as many as 76 percent inhabitants of the country declare that accession to the European Union is important or very important to them. And it would seem that in the conditions of war with Russia, Ukraine is ready to meet all EU conditions to join the Community.

However, the opinion of Ukrainian society on this subject may surprise many. Only 27 percent respondents believe that Ukraine should "adopt all necessary laws and implement all EU conditions" in order to become a member of the Union as soon as possible. Meanwhile, as much as 60 percent Ukrainians believe that they should fight for their own interests and "not agree to individual EU conditions", even if this will prolong the accession process. It is interesting that there is consensus on this issue both in the western, central and eastern parts of the country.

Interestingly, only 22 percent Ukrainians believe that their country is ready for EU membership. 25% have a different opinion. respondents, and 43 percent Ukrainians believe that reforms are still needed before membership in the EU.

The priority is to be the fight against corruption (more than half of the respondents say so). This results from the latest survey of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) conducted on behalf of the European Union Advisory Mission in Ukraine (EUAM Ukraine). Sociologists interviewed over 2,000 people. people in various regions of the country, of course, no surveys were carried out in the areas occupied by the Russian army.

There are issues on which the approach of Ukrainians differs from that of the EU and is changing, but slowly. There is a large part of society that has a negative attitude towards LGBT, same-sex marriages and the possibility of them adopting children. Another topic that worries people in relations with the EU is the issue of Ukrainian agriculture and access to European markets. It is not only about problems related to Poland, but also to the whole of Europe - says Volodymyr Paniotto, head of KIIS, to "Rzeczpospolita".

As he claims, Ukrainians are grateful to Europe for arms supplies, but they believe that this support is insufficient. – There is an opinion that Europe, by heavily dosing support, is helping Ukraine not to lose this war, but it is also preventing it from winning. And our soldiers on the front pay dearly for it. That is why many people believe that we should not agree to all EU conditions, he adds. The survey shows that as many as 56 percent Ukrainians believe that EU support is insufficient (36 percent think otherwise).

Surprisingly, the war almost did not change the financial well-being of Ukrainians. At least those who stayed in the country (and it is estimated that about 7 million people left). As much as 17 percent respondents (the same was true in 2021) declare that they need to save on food. In turn, 32 percent respondents say that they cannot afford to buy clothes and shoes, 34 percent Ukrainians can afford to buy new clothes, but they have to borrow money or save money to buy, for example, a new cell phone or a vacuum cleaner.

President Volodymyr Zelensky enjoys the greatest trust on the Dnieper (73%), but Ukrainians trust their own government less (54%) than the European Union (65%) or NATO (59%). The anti-trust ranking is led by courts, which are distrusted by 61 percent. Ukrainians and the prosecutor's office (52%).

The reform of the judicial system was the least successful of all the reforms carried out in the Dnieper region in recent years. The courts from President Yanukovych's time do not want to reform and put up strong resistance. And their reliability and independence depends, among other things, on: whether foreign investors will come here - says Paniotto. Suffice it to say that the former chairman of the Supreme Court has been in prison for several months, accused of accepting a bribe of $2.7 million.

Ukrainians were also asked what serious problems they face where they live. As much as 36 percent respondents talk about drug trafficking, while in the west of the country only 21% pay attention to this problem. inhabitants, in Kiev – 46 percent respondents, and in the east of the country as many as 88 percent They complain about burglaries and thefts especially in the east and south of Ukraine. Residents of the eastern parts of the country talk about problems related to illegal weapons (50 percent of respondents there) and human trafficking (28 percent)."

Ukraińcy chcą do Unii, ale nie za wszelką cenę

Większość Ukraińców uważa, że kraj jeszcze nie jest gotowy do przystąpienia do UE i wymaga reform. Nie ufają prokuraturze i sądom, chcą walki z korupcją.

www.rp.pl

 

[ska invita]

Wars are not always matters of cold realism. Take Vietnam for example. Or Afghanistan. Or Iraq. Or Ukraine.

I take your point but realism is realism. Being realistic about fighting a guerrilla war is still realism.

The US are repeatedly criticised by allies for not having achievable goals and exit strategies, Ukraine included. Then again on that point we don't know what they real goals are.... They may well always achieve them even if it looks like disaster to others

 

[manji]

Zaluzhnyy Head Of The Ukrainian Armed Forces is polling a lot higher than Zelensky. Talk in Kyiv is Zelenskys days are numbered. USA losing patience with him too

 

[Pickman's model]

I've not said it's personal rule, I've said he has a great deal of freedom to call time on the war in a way that Zelensky doesn't. You can call that blithe chatting if you wish (as though we do anything else on Urban), it's actually just an opinion you don't agree with. Which is fine, I didn't particularly agree with your view a year ago that nukes were likely imminent.

Perhaps you could remind me of the post

 

[Rob Ray]

Hm I seemed to remember you hinting at nuclear exchanges becoming likely as a result of escalating conflict, but can't find it now. Possibly I'm misremembering you talking about escalation at the same time as nuclear responses were being bandied about.

 

[Pickman's model]

Hm I seemed to remember you hinting at nuclear exchanges becoming likely as a result of escalating conflict, but can't find it now. Possibly I'm misremembering you talking about escalation at the same time as nuclear responses were being bandied about.

I am pretty sure I have never talked about nuclear exchanges on urban

 

[teuchter]

Pickman's model going on about how it was stupid to think Russia wouldn't use its nukes, 2022

Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-23

Not as tiny as you might think honestly. It's more and more common for working and lower middle class Russians to go abroad to places like Turkey etc on a regular basis. And lots of Russians have gone to work abroad. South of France is a much more expensive place to go on holiday to than Turkey...

www.urban75.net

 

[krtek a houby]

Was the near instant banning not enough?

Sometimes. But as you know, they often come back, as if nothing untoward ever occurred.

 

[Rob Ray]

Ah, well that answers my earlier question about Russia's current negotiating position. No movement or compromise on 2022:

(Putin) is quickly given a question about the war in Ukraine, and Pavel Zarubin, a state television anchor asks: “When will there be peace?”
“There will be peace when we achieve our goals,” Putin said. “They haven’t changed. Denazification of Ukraine, the demilitarisation of Ukraine.”

Russia-Ukraine war: Putin says Russian goals in Ukraine are unchanged and there will only be peace when it achieves them – as it happened

Russian leader conducts first end of year press conference since start of invasion

www.theguardian.com

 

[Rob Ray]

That position was somewhat vague and self-contradictory but seems to amount to:

• Recognise the annexations
• Write neutrality into the constitution (no NATO or EU membership)
• 'De-Nazification' (presumably meaning removal of the government and replacement with a pro-Russian one. Exactly how is unclear - appointed governor? Political purge? Adminstrative occupation?)
• Demilitarisation

Anything else?

 

[TopCat]

Is Zelensky still stating the defeat of Russia, removal of Putin, massive reperations as aims?

 

[Yossarian]

Ah, well that answers my earlier question about Russia's current negotiating position. No movement or compromise on 2022:

Russia-Ukraine war: Putin says Russian goals in Ukraine are unchanged and there will only be peace when it achieves them – as it happened

Russian leader conducts first end of year press conference since start of invasion

www.theguardian.com

“Today, Ukraine produces almost nothing,” Putin said referring to military equipment and weapons. “Everything is brought in … for free. But the freebies may end at some point and apparently it’s coming to an end little by little.”

The Russian president repeated his false claims that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is leading a Nazi regime, and he insisted that Russia’s military was destroying the weapons that the United States and other Western nations were supplying to Kyiv.

Easy to imagine Tucker Carlson, etc. watching the Putin press conference and clapping like seals

 

[Chz]

Is Zelensky still stating the defeat of Russia, removal of Putin, massive reperations as aims?

No.

 

[Rob Ray]

Is Zelensky still stating the defeat of Russia, removal of Putin, massive reperations as aims?

As though the last day of conversation expounding on Zelensky's lack of real agency to make those calls never happened. I seem to remember you complaining about focusing on individuals earlier, btw - that only count for other people? Do you have anything to say about the wider Ukrainian position or is it all just this tedious stuck record of "Zelensky sucks." If everyone agrees Zelensky sucks will you shut up about him for five minutes?

 

[TopCat]

As though the last day of conversation expounding on Zelensky's lack of real agency to make those calls never happened. I seem to remember you complaining about focusing on individuals earlier, btw - that only count for other people? Do you have anything to say about the wider Ukrainian position or is it all just this tedious stuck record of "Zelensky sucks." If everyone agrees Zelensky sucks will you shut up about him for five minutes?

He is their leader. The last two years would not have gone in the direction it has other than for his leadership. His maximalist demands were always startling. I haven’t seen reports of him scaling down. Have you?

 

[TopCat]

No.

What’s his stated strategic goal now?