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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

Kaka Tim said:
One thing that struck me is how little the russian people were prepped for this. They were told - repeatedly - that Russia has no plans to invade and it was all western shit stirring. Then we had about 4 days of transparently false claims about Ukraine attacking the rebel areas and now its a full on invasion. With Chenchya it was all about fighting murderous, fanatical Jihadis - but beyond lurid claims about the government being nazis, they havent - and may be coundn't - done much to portray the Ukrainians as a major threat to Russia. Doesn't look like a well though out propaganda strategy to me. Prior to the Iraq war we had months and months of scaremongering and atrocity stories and bullshit to justify it.
Im curious as to what the Russian people make of all this - especially if/when Kiev gets flattened by their Military (and many russians have friends and relatives living there) and more and more of thier sons and brothers come home in bodybags.

Russia is not a totalitarian state likes in Stalin's time. Protestors get arrested and beaten up - but they arent being massacred or sent to the gulags (yet?). Putin does not have total control of the media - especially socail medai - and the state does not run everything. Im no expert - but im not sure how much of Putins power is conditional on the the support of oligarchs, the military and other senior officials - if this goes proper shit show for (and there are hints that it might) maybe things could go very wrong for vlad very quickly.

Other thought is that I assumed that Russia would "shock and awe" ukraine - take out all their communications, air defence, air force and precision target key individuals (do they use drones much?) and then sweep in - instead they have gone in without securing air superiority - which looks reckless in the extreme. If (and still a big if - lots of propaganda flying around) they have seriously underestimated the Ukraine's defensive capability's - has this been in part to them being fed by misinformation from the western side - and this could turn into a massive beartrap that Putin has blundered into.
Their military has experience of fighting counter-insurgency wars in Afghanistan, Chechnya and Syria. The only proper army it has faced - i think - was the tiny Georgian military - in a conflict that lasted - what - 48 hours? They are now going toe to toe with a well equipped, large and highly motivated military across a vast area who will have been planning how to resist a Russian invasion since at least 2014.
Could it be they have gone in woefully unprepared, ill equipped and without proper planning? And/or have the russian military deliberately done this in a half arsed way becasue they were against it from the start?
Anyway - kind of freewheeling here - and trying not the get too hopeful - but still ...
Click to expand...

I have a feeling that Russia wanted to have a bloodless victory - and probably genuinely believed that the Ukr army would stand aside, the political elite would jump on planes with suitcases full of cash, and the the population would line the streets with flowers.
 
kebabking said:
I have a feeling that Russia wanted to have a bloodless victory - and probably genuinely believed that the Ukr army would stand aside, the political elite would jump on planes with suitcases full of cash, and the the population would line the streets with flowers.
Click to expand...
yeh you'd hope so. but surely - SURELY - you'd send the hardest troops in to make sure it was so. it's astonishing how people who know so much more about war than me manage to design an operation which i'd be ashamed to have suggested.
 
Pickman's model said:
yeh you'd hope so. but surely - SURELY - you'd send the hardest troops in to make sure it was so. it's astonishing how people who know so much more about war than me manage to design an operation which i'd be ashamed to have suggested.
Click to expand...

yeah - that is pretty headscratching - again - did the russian military not want to waste their best troops on something they felt was a massive mistake?
 
Kaka Tim said:
yeah - that is pretty headscratching - again - did the russian military not want to waste their best troops on something they felt was a massive mistake?
Click to expand...
i am sure that vladimir putin would have said to sergey shoygu and valery gerasimov 'let's use our a team for this, go in hard, go in fast, and let's smash the bastards' or words to that effect. i find it hard to imagine that shoygu or gerasimov would have countered by suggesting giving the top troops a few days off and sending in the second xi
 
Kaka Tim said:
One thing that struck me is how little the russian people were prepped for this. They were told - repeatedly - that Russia has no plans to invade and it was all western shit stirring. Then we had about 4 days of transparently false claims about Ukraine attacking the rebel areas and now its a full on invasion. With Chenchya it was all about fighting murderous, fanatical Jihadis - but beyond lurid claims about the government being nazis, they havent - and may be coundn't - done much to portray the Ukrainians as a major threat to Russia. Doesn't look like a well though out propaganda strategy to me. Prior to the Iraq war we had months and months of scaremongering and atrocity stories and bullshit to justify it.
Im curious as to what the Russian people make of all this - especially if/when Kiev gets flattened by their Military (and many russians have friends and relatives living there) and more and more of thier sons and brothers come home in bodybags.

Russia is not a totalitarian state likes in Stalin's time. Protestors get arrested and beaten up - but they arent being massacred or sent to the gulags (yet?). Putin does not have total control of the media - especially socail medai - and the state does not run everything. Im no expert - but im not sure how much of Putins power is conditional on the the support of oligarchs, the military and other senior officials - if this goes proper shit show for (and there are hints that it might) maybe things could go very wrong for vlad very quickly.

Other thought is that I assumed that Russia would "shock and awe" ukraine - take out all their communications, air defence, air force and precision target key individuals (do they use drones much?) and then sweep in - instead they have gone in without securing air superiority - which looks reckless in the extreme. If (and still a big if - lots of propaganda flying around) they have seriously underestimated the Ukraine's defensive capability's - has this been in part to them being fed by misinformation from the western side - and this could turn into a massive beartrap that Putin has blundered into.
Their military has experience of fighting counter-insurgency wars in Afghanistan, Chechnya and Syria. The only proper army it has faced - i think - was the tiny Georgian military - in a conflict that lasted - what - 48 hours? They are now going toe to toe with a well equipped, large and highly motivated military across a vast area who will have been planning how to resist a Russian invasion since at least 2014.
Could it be they have gone in woefully unprepared, ill equipped and without proper planning? And/or have the russian military deliberately done this in a half arsed way becasue they were against it from the start?
Anyway - kind of freewheeling here - and trying not the get too hopeful - but still ...
Click to expand...
I'd say it's the first option - unprepared, ill equipped, and planning. The Russians are famous for fucking up on the battlefield - see Finland and Afghanistan. And I think it's due to what someone pointed out earlier in this thread about Russian military command. The culture doesn't allow much for free thinking without having the proper permission to do so. Putin has been upgrading the military and kitting them with good modern gear but not everyone has it. Other hardware isn't upgraded either. He's also restructured the army with them having less officers and more foot soldiers. They look like they don't function well together. Planning isn't sound or kept in pace with actual capabilities. Just my assessment.
 
Military trainspotter types. Do the Russians have an equivalent of the western graphite bombs which can destroy electricity sub stations with a mix of powered graphite and carbon fibre ribbons?

Knocking out a countries electricity being an early goal but surprisingly difficult to do with conventional munitions.
 
dilute micro said:
I'd say it's the first option - unprepared, ill equipped, and planning. The Russians are famous for fucking up on the battlefield - see Finland and Afghanistan. And I think it's due to what someone pointed out earlier in this thread about Russian military command. The culture doesn't allow much for free thinking without having the proper permission to do so. Putin has been upgrading the military and kitting them with good modern gear but not everyone has it. Other hardware isn't upgraded either. He's also restructured the army with them having less officers and more foot soldiers. They look like they don't function well together. Planning isn't sound or kept in pace with actual capabilities. Just my assessment.
Click to expand...
between finland and afghanistan were a great number of very successful operations, the kettling of stalingrad for example. the consistency in command over the past eight or ten years, during which time the leadership of the ministry of defence has been unchanged, ought to have allowed the reforms of the past few years time to settle in. the expedition to syria ought to have allowed things to be bedded in and adjusted. but most importantly, you'd have thought they'd wargame a campaign against ukraine several times, that they would have some basic red team playing the opposition to see what obstacles might be put in their way. it shouldn't have been something done off the cuff, but there's certainly history of that, the ordering of the invasion of chechenya while the russian high command were on the lash in the 90s, for example - you can picture the scene, i bet you won't do this, i bet i will, go ahead then big man, i will too - and a fateful phone call...
 
Long but well worth it Anarchists in Ukraine Against War | The Final Straw Radio Podcast.

Goes into "the relationship between Russia and Ukraine, the Maidan uprising and war in the Donbass, resistance to the invasion of Ukraine and the Putin regime, conspiracy theories about Ukraine promoted by Russia and Russian-aligned media outlets, critiques of the Ukrainian state, and anarchists choosing their own path of self-defense and revolutionary mutual aid."
 
Ĝasper said:
An open letter to the western left
ukrainesolidaritycampaign.org

A letter to the Western Left from Kyiv

The ‘anti-imperialism of idiots’ meant people turned a blind eye to Russia’s actions Ukrainian citizens prepared to resist Russian Imperialism We republish below an important open letter from Taras…
ukrainesolidaritycampaign.org ukrainesolidaritycampaign.org
This really blew me away. I am going to zip it about NATO for a bit.
Click to expand...
Been posted a couple of times. It's an excellent piece and should be shared far and wide.
 
dilute micro said:
We could send Putin a letter informing him that, in light of review of his army's performance in Ukraine, we've decided to dissolve NATO.
Click to expand...
I've read analyses that suggest if the cold war had turned hot the early stages would have consisted of two groups of high functioning alcoholics on either side of the Inner German Border standing around kicking vehicles that wouldn't start.
 
Last edited:
Apparently this is a letter from the head of Ukraine’s State Border Service Serhiy Deyneko to his Belarusian counterpart "accusing Minsk of helping Russia wage a war against Ukraine." The all caps bit at the end reads:
WE WILL WIN! BE DAMNED, BASTARDS! WITH DISDAIN!
dpsu.gov.ua

БУДЬТЕ ВЫ ПРОКЛЯТЫ, ТВАРИ!!! – реакція Голови ДПСУ на підтримку російського вторгнення Білоруссю

Державна прикордонна служба України
dpsu.gov.ua
 
Pickman's model said:
i am sure that vladimir putin would have said to sergey shoygu and valery gerasimov 'let's use our a team for this, go in hard, go in fast, and let's smash the bastards' or words to that effect. i find it hard to imagine that shoygu or gerasimov would have countered by suggesting giving the top troops a few days off and sending in the second xi
Click to expand...

One of them has obviously replied "I ain't getting on no plane to Kiev, fool!"
 
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