Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[discokermit]

I've read analyses that suggest if the cold war had turned hot the early stages would have consisted of two groups of high functioning alcoholics on either side of the inner German Boarder standing around kicking vehicles that wouldn't start.

who is the inner german boarder?

 

[A380]

who is the inner german boarder?

Hans, who used to stay with my aunty in Rhyll...

 

[discokermit]

Hans who used to stay with my aunty...

did he do dishes just as soft as your face with mild green hairy lip squid?

 

[Aladdin]

yeah - that is pretty headscratching - again - did the russian military not want to waste their best troops on something they felt was a massive mistake?

Or keeping them in reserve in case Ukraine does not capitulate.

 

[scalyboy]

Apparently this is a letter from the head of Ukraine’s State Border Service Serhiy Deyneko to his Belarusian counterpart "accusing Minsk of helping Russia wage a war against Ukraine." The all caps bit at the end reads:
WE WILL WIN! BE DAMNED, BASTARDS! WITH DISDAIN!

БУДЬТЕ ВЫ ПРОКЛЯТЫ, ТВАРИ!!! – реакція Голови ДПСУ на підтримку російського вторгнення Білоруссю

Державна прикордонна служба України

dpsu.gov.ua

I should’ve used that sign-off for emails to senior management when I was a union rep BITD.
“Be damned, bastards! With disdain!
Kind regards”

 

[Pickman's model]

I should’ve used that sign-off for emails to senior management when I was a union rep BITD.
“Be damned, bastards! With disdain!
Kind regards”

yeh i'll be dropping it into emails too

 

[elbows]

Lots of evidence of poor planning emerging

Some are also surprised by a lack of attention to operational security, eg journalists etc being allowed to openly film Russian troop/vehicle movements in the border area.

 

[Pickman's model]

Some are also surprised by a lack of attention to operational security, eg journalists etc being allowed to openly film Russian troop/vehicle movements in the border area.

gobsmacking. have they never heard 'loose lips sink ships' or whatever the soviet/russian equivalent is?

 

[strung out]

Germany has finally agreed to 'targeted and functional' blocking of the Swift network, the last EU country to do so.

 

[scalyboy]

One thing that struck me is how little the russian people were prepped for this. They were told - repeatedly - that Russia has no plans to invade and it was all western shit stirring. Then we had about 4 days of transparently false claims about Ukraine attacking the rebel areas and now its a full on invasion. With Chenchya it was all about fighting murderous, fanatical Jihadis - but beyond lurid claims about the government being nazis, they havent - and may be coundn't - done much to portray the Ukrainians as a major threat to Russia. Doesn't look like a well though out propaganda strategy to me. Prior to the Iraq war we had months and months of scaremongering and atrocity stories and bullshit to justify it.
Im curious as to what the Russian people make of all this - especially if/when Kiev gets flattened by their Military (and many russians have friends and relatives living there) and more and more of thier sons and brothers come home in bodybags.

Russia is not a totalitarian state likes in Stalin's time. Protestors get arrested and beaten up - but they arent being massacred or sent to the gulags (yet?). Putin does not have total control of the media - especially socail medai - and the state does not run everything. Im no expert - but im not sure how much of Putins power is conditional on the the support of oligarchs, the military and other senior officials - if this goes proper shit show for (and there are hints that it might) maybe things could go very wrong for vlad very quickly.

Other thought is that I assumed that Russia would "shock and awe" ukraine - take out all their communications, air defence, air force and precision target key individuals (do they use drones much?) and then sweep in - instead they have gone in without securing air superiority - which looks reckless in the extreme. If (and still a big if - lots of propaganda flying around) they have seriously underestimated the Ukraine's defensive capability's - has this been in part to them being fed by misinformation from the western side - and this could turn into a massive beartrap that Putin has blundered into.
Their military has experience of fighting counter-insurgency wars in Afghanistan, Chechnya and Syria. The only proper army it has faced - i think - was the tiny Georgian military - in a conflict that lasted - what - 48 hours? They are now going toe to toe with a well equipped, large and highly motivated military across a vast area who will have been planning how to resist a Russian invasion since at least 2014.
Could it be they have gone in woefully unprepared, ill equipped and without proper planning? And/or have the russian military deliberately done this in a half arsed way becasue they were against it from the start?
Anyway - kind of freewheeling here - and trying not the get too hopeful - but still …

Lots of good points here. It may well be that the Russian public were deliberately kept in the dark about an imminent invasion of Ukraine because it would not have played well - certainly the mass protests in several Russian cities indicates this. It’s one thing attacking fanatical jihadis in Chechnya (as Kaka Tim says above) but quite another thing to invade a fellow Slavic nation, both largely Orthodox in religion, v similar language etc.

The video clip of a captured Russian soldier lad (looked v young) phoning his Mum has her surprised reaction - “where are you? Ukraine?” - and him saying we didn’t know where we were being posted. Have seen similar stories elsewhere re. other POWs and their apparent low morale.

A book I recall reading by Anna Politskayova many examples of how atrociously Russian Army privates are treated by their officers; bullied, beaten, in some cases tortured & killed. It was 15+ years old but I’ve no reason to think things have changed.

I don’t doubt the ‘poor bloody infantry’ (NB not special forces, who may be being kept in reserve ) who appear to have been the first line of attack, were told f*** all about where they were going.

[edit: Anna Politkovskaya not 'Politskayova' as I'd initially mistyped. RIP. Poisoned but recovered 2004; murdered 2006]

 

[A380]

Germany has finally agreed to 'targeted and functional' blocking of the Swift network, the last EU country to do so.

Lots more brown coal power stations in the green utopia then...

 

[Pickman's model]

Lots of good points here. It may well be that the Russian public were deliberately kept in the dark about an imminent invasion of Ukraine because it would not have played well - certainly the mass protests in several Russian cities indicates this. It’s one thing attacking fanatical jihadis in Chechnya (as Kaka Tim says above) but quite another thing to invade a fellow Slavic nation, both largely Orthodox in religion, v similar language etc.

The video clip of a captured Russian soldier lad (looked v young) phoning his Mum has her surprised that he’s in Ukraine, and him saying we didn’t know where we were going. Read similar stories elsewhere yesterday re. other POWs.

A book I recall reading by Anna Politskayova had many examples of how atrociously Russian Army privates are treated by their officers; bullied, beaten, in some cases tortured & killed. It was 15+ years old but I’ve no reason to think things have changed.

I don’t doubt the ‘poor bloody infantry’ (NB not special forces, who may be being kept in reserve ) who appear to have been the first line of attack, were told f*** all about where they were going.

on the didn't know where we were going, sure some of the former soldiers here can corroborate that troops going into the six counties for eg operation motorman didn't know they were going to belfast or derry

 

[Pickman's model]

Lots more brown coal power stations in the green utopia then...

this war and the coming war with china will fuck the climate

 

[RileyOBlimey]

Those sexy Chechen warlords in Prada boots...
View attachment 311983View attachment 311984View attachment 311985

For an extremely violent homophobe they are the campest combat boots I’ve ever seen.

 

[Raheem]

Lots more brown coal power stations in the green utopia then...

Assume "targeted and functional" translates as "we still want the gas, though".

 

[Artaxerxes]

Lots more brown coal power stations in the green utopia then...

If the dozy fucks hadn't scrapped their nuclear plants...

 

[scalyboy]

on the didn't know where we were going, sure some of the former soldiers here can corroborate that troops going into the six counties for eg operation motorman didn't know they were going to belfast or derry

Reminds me of that (apocryphal? True?) story of a British army unit in Derry or Belfast, 1969, faced with a riot and unveiling a large banner telling the locals to return immediately to their homes - in Arabic

 

[A380]

this war and the coming war with china will fuck the climate

Nah, the CO2 emissions from the one with China will be balanced by the nuclear winter soot particles for a decade or so.

 

[vanya]

One of the biggest misconceptions widely shared by populists of both the far left and far right in this country is the assumption that Putin is a cunning strategist who runs rings around ‘the West ‘ and so on. The fact is he is a dick who just happens to be a sociopath with a chip on his shoulder the size of Chernobyl’s reactor. Forever obsessed about Russia’s place in the world he has done nothing for the Russian people and squandered billions of dollars of greenhouse-gas emitting fossil fuels on pointless Foreign misadventures while not only doing nothing to enhance the wider economy but making it worse by continually inflicting western sanctions on the economy because of the aforementioned aggressive foreign policy. The potential of the Russian people is enormous but it will never be unleashed while that little man holds the reins of power in cahoots with the gangsters who vie for power beneath his tiny little frame.

 

[scalyboy]

on the didn't know where we were going, sure some of the former soldiers here can corroborate that troops going into the six counties for eg operation motorman didn't know they were going to belfast or derry

I can also recall an N.I. / Operation Banner documentary interviewing various parties; a former squaddie from Manchester or Sheffield talking about his shock at being deployed on foot patrol in Belfast.

How similar the rows of terraced houses looked to the ones he grew up in back home, the familiar bakers, bookies and pubs. Not sure what he was told to expect…

 

[elbows]

Other thought is that I assumed that Russia would "shock and awe" ukraine - take out all their communications, air defence, air force and precision target key individuals (do they use drones much?) and then sweep in - instead they have gone in without securing air superiority - which looks reckless in the extreme.

It is quite the spectacle to observe, but then again we have become so used to seeing the standard 'first achieve total control of the skies' approach from the USA in recent decades that maybe we've made too many assumptions, and other approaches are always going to seem weird.

Having said that Ukraines air capabilities have still been degraded, and I havent seen any good info about how many war planes they can still make use of right now. Ukraine have been calling for NATO to bring about a 'no fly zone' (really a we fly zone), at least in some regions, but there isnt any appetite to offer that because it would end up meaning direct NATO engagement with Russian planes and that would be an escalation that the nuclear powers are rather keen to avoid. Not that its surprising that Ukraine will still ask for this sort of thing at a time like this, but they wont get it.

 

[discokermit]

.

 

[A380]

One of the biggest misconceptions widely shared by populists of both the far left and far right in this country is the assumption that Putin is a cunning strategist who runs rings around ‘the West ‘ and so on. The fact is he is a dick who just happens to be a sociopath with a chip on his shoulder the size of Chernobyl’s reactor. Forever obsessed about Russia’s place in the world he has done nothing for the Russian people and squandered billions of dollars of greenhouse-gas emitting fossil fuels on pointless Foreign misadventures while not only doing nothing to enhance the wider economy but making it worse by continually inflicting western sanctions on the economy because of the aforementioned aggressive foreign policy. The potential of the Russian people is enormous but it will never be unleashed while that little man holds the reins of power in cahoots with the gangsters who vie for power beneath his tiny little frame.

Not a fan then? hard to tell...

 

[tim]

We could send Putin a letter informing him that, in light of review of his army's performance in Ukraine, we've decided to dissolve NATO.

Does the Editor have the authority to take such a decision?

 

[cupid_stunt]

Germany has finally agreed to 'targeted and functional' blocking of the Swift network, the last EU country to do so.

They have also finally agreed that German weapons supplied to the likes of Holland can now be sent to Ukraine, this is a major shift in policy.

 

[Raheem]

Does the Editor have the authority to take such a decision!

Soon as he gets the nod from Jackie Weaver.

 

[likesfish]

There a rather tasteless meme of St Javelin doing the rounds.
Referring to the fact Ukraine has a shed load of Javelin anti tank missiles that are just about man portable fire and forget and will reliably kill modern tanks from out of range of a tanks main gun.
Stingers Surface to air missiles.
We gave them loads of Nlaw a short range guided anti tank missile that xan be used in urban warfare.
Really not a good place to be a, tanker hicoptwr pilot or ground attack pilot

 

[ska invita]

cant keep up with the thread, hope not already mentioned
racism at the polish border

26 Zambian Students Spend Cold Night At Polish Border, Plead For Rescue – The Zambian Observer

Finding it difficult to evacuate students stuck at Ukraine-Polish border, says Indian official

India is finding it difficult to safely evacuate many students stuck at the Ukraine-Polish border said a government official in Poland on Saturday

www.bignewsnetwork.com

etc

likewise reports of nonwhite Ukrainian nationals not being allowed on trains, rejected at the border etc

 

[RileyOBlimey]

There a rather tasteless meme of St Javelin doing the rounds.
Referring to the fact Ukraine has a shed load of Javelin anti tank missiles that are just about man portable fire and forget and will reliably kill modern tanks from out of range of a tanks main gun.
Stingers Surface to air missiles.
We gave them loads of Nlaw a short range guided anti tank missile that xan be used in urban warfare.
Really not a good place to be a, tanker hicoptwr pilot or ground attack pilot

The Dutch are bunging a couple of hundred Stingers into the mix too…

The Netherlands to supply 200 Stinger missiles to Ukraine - DutchNews.nl

The Netherlands has agreed to ship 200 Stinger air defence missiles to Ukraine as quickly as it can, following a request by the Ukrainian government, the cabinet has agreed. ‘There was a careful but, given the circumstances, shortened check to make sure this meets weapons exports criteria,’...

www.dutchnews.nl

Stingers fucked the Russians in Afghanistan, they may still work today.

 

[existentialist]

Some are also surprised by a lack of attention to operational security, eg journalists etc being allowed to openly film Russian troop/vehicle movements in the border area.

Or they're happy to let the media film a bunch of tanks going in one direction, while another, bigger, bunch of tanks goes in another direction, unfilmed. Military deception is something of an art form in Russia.