Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[nogojones]

As Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Gains Momentum, Russia Is Deploying Some Of Its Last Good Reserves

Any future effort to reinforce Russian defenses in one sector could come at the expense of Russian defenses in another sector.

www.forbes.com

Hopeful?

I've found David Axe's articles for Forbes over the conflict little more that puff pieces for western military hardware and wishful thinking. So being David Axe I'm not particularly hopeful.

 

[StoneRoad]

As Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Gains Momentum, Russia Is Deploying Some Of Its Last Good Reserves

Any future effort to reinforce Russian defenses in one sector could come at the expense of Russian defenses in another sector.

www.forbes.com

Hopeful?

That seems to be a re-hash of the recent ISW assessments that ru55ia is conducting lateral redeployments due to a lack of combat ready reserves, or, indeed, anything much in the way of reserves at all, and attempting to do rotations in place as part of that.

 

[Chz]

You do know that it's not compulsory to be a dick on Urban, don't you?

Would come as a surprise to many, I think. Have a cup of tea and come back to it. Experience says we're all lovely people in the flesh, bit there's something about politics and facelessness that just...

 

[dilute micro]

That seems to be a re-hash of the recent ISW assessments that ru55ia is conducting lateral redeployments due to a lack of combat ready reserves, or, indeed, anything much in the way of reserves at all, and attempting to do rotations in place as part of that.

From the reports of the fighting it doesn't appear that the Russians have eyes on all the areas you think they might, given that it's pretty much well known at this point where Ukraine intends to break through. I know the maps we look at make the scale look smaller than it is, but still.

Here are the lines made easier to see. Ukraine is said to have breached the 1st Surovikin line just west of Verbove.

 

[Idris2002]

When the Spring offensive gets underway the position should become more clear.

Spring of what year?

 

[The39thStep]

Depressing article tbh what whatever one's position is.

"As recently as April, leaked estimates from the Pentagon put Ukrainian deaths at the much lower figure of 17,500. The alleged jump to more than 70,000 can be partly explained by the counter-offensive in the south."

If the counter offensive only partially explains the huge and sudden rise what else has driven those figures?

'Dying by the dozens every day' - Ukraine losses climb

Ukraine will not disclose its death count, but the BBC’s Quentin Sommerville witnesses the mounting toll.

www.bbc.com

 

[dilute micro]

Depressing article tbh what whatever one's position is.

"As recently as April, leaked estimates from the Pentagon put Ukrainian deaths at the much lower figure of 17,500. The alleged jump to more than 70,000 can be partly explained by the counter-offensive in the south."

If the counter offensive only partially explains the huge and sudden rise what else has driven those figures?

'Dying by the dozens every day' - Ukraine losses climb

Ukraine will not disclose its death count, but the BBC’s Quentin Sommerville witnesses the mounting toll.

www.bbc.com

 

[dilute micro]

Keir Giles lays it out pretty well. If the US weren't afraid of a defeated Russia, it would have Ukraine in a much better position than they're in currently. I'd add to that if the US were at all serious about it too.

 

[Ming]

Keir Giles lays it out pretty well. If the US weren't afraid of a defeated Russia, it would have Ukraine in a much better position than they're in currently. I'd add to that if the US were at all serious about it too.

Very good.

 

[redsquirrel]

These "true patterns in Russian history" that allow for "modelling", does the equivalent exist for other countries?

That video is worth watching - less for the content than for the excellent example of the mindset of the NAFO crowd.

 

[LDC]

"As recently as April, leaked estimates from the Pentagon put Ukrainian deaths at the much lower figure of 17,500. The alleged jump to more than 70,000 can be partly explained by the counter-offensive in the south."

If the counter offensive only partially explains the huge and sudden rise what else has driven those figures?

I think it's just slightly clumsy writing, I took it to mean just other areas of fighting that aren't the south rather than anything more The39thStep.

There have been a number of recent articles covering the significant number of casualties Ukraine has had.

 

[Rimbaud]

Ukraine — Victory Is Closer Than You Think

Ukraine’s counteroffensive is making substantial progress. Russia’s generals will know this, even if the West doesn’t.

cepa.org

This article argues that Ukraine counter-offensive is more successful than we believe, as it has now penetrated the front-line and may soon be able to break Russia's ability to resupply their army.

This is backed by reports that Russian authorities are starting to evacuate Tokmak, which is a major transportation hub in itself and if taken it will also provide Ukrainians with the ability to strike Russia's main southern supply road. This will allow them to effectively cut off and encircle Melitopol and could lead to the liberation of the Southern Coast, and also cut off the land bridge to Crimea making Russian forces there dependent on Kerch Bridge.

Russian "authorities" in Tokmak prepare to leave city – Melitopol's mayor

The occupational "authorities" of Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, are being moved to another place, as the combat line is approaching the city. Source: Ivan Fedorov, Melitopol's mayor Quote: "Almost daily bavovna and the liberation of settlements on the Melitopol front are turning Tokmak, which is...

news.yahoo.com

Robotyne. Ukrainian Armed Forces are advancing towards the next village to the south - Oj

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are advancing towards the next village after Robotyne, which is Novoprokopovka, as repor ...

odessa-journal.com

 

[Pickman's model]

Ukraine — Victory Is Closer Than You Think

Ukraine’s counteroffensive is making substantial progress. Russia’s generals will know this, even if the West doesn’t.

cepa.org

This article argues that Ukraine counter-offensive is more successful than we believe, as it has now penetrated the front-line and may soon be able to break Russia's ability to resupply their army.

This is backed by reports that Russian authorities are starting to evacuate Tokmak, which is a major transportation hub in itself and if taken it will also provide Ukrainians with the ability to strike Russia's main southern supply road. This will allow them to effectively cut off and encircle Melitopol and could lead to the liberation of the Southern Coast, and also cut off the land bridge to Crimea making Russian forces there dependent on Kerch Bridge.

Russian "authorities" in Tokmak prepare to leave city – Melitopol's mayor

The occupational "authorities" of Tokmak, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, are being moved to another place, as the combat line is approaching the city. Source: Ivan Fedorov, Melitopol's mayor Quote: "Almost daily bavovna and the liberation of settlements on the Melitopol front are turning Tokmak, which is...

news.yahoo.com

Robotyne. Ukrainian Armed Forces are advancing towards the next village to the south - Oj

The Ukrainian Armed Forces are advancing towards the next village after Robotyne, which is Novoprokopovka, as repor ...

odessa-journal.com

If and could are doing some very heavy lifting in your post

 

[ska invita]

Pickman's model , what is the name of that military term for when a frontline is broken through and the advancing units find themselves surrounded as a result? We've talked about this before in relation to this push and you knew the actual term whilst i was just describing it.

 

[StoneRoad]

Salient ?
ska invita

 

[Cid]

Pickman's model , what is the name of that military term for when a frontline is broken through and the advancing units find themselves surrounded as a result? We've talked about this before in relation to this push and you knew the actual term whilst i was just describing it.

The bulge is a salient, a cut-off bulge is a pocket.

 

[Cid]

And then, if you want to go all Stalingrad, you can start talking about kessels/cauldrons. But afaik that's literally just the German term for (military) pocket.

 

[ska invita]

Salient ?
ska invita

thank you , yes thats the one.

Salient (military) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

it does seem to me that a push at just one point deep into Russian held territory creates its own potentially massive problem as Ukrainian forces are now surrounded as in the above Salient/Bulge. Surely a very real risk.

This is what I wrote earlier in the year before the counteroffensive officially began...I still think this:

then there's the scenario what if the Ukraine army actually DOES successfully makes a breakthrough at any one point, throw all the weaponry being held back and break Russian supplies lines, lets say at the areas they are 'testing'....lets say they make it half way to Mariupol....they will then be pincered from left and right and below by now more desperate russian forces. Biden's comment today about the Russian nuclear threat being "real" adds mood music to all this.

I'm absolutely no military historian but seems to me the scale of what would need to happen to reconquer all this territory is one thing in a WW2 style total war situation with every ally throwing everything they have to make it happen and fuck the consequences, but that's not what is happening here. Head US general Mark Milley has said as much that it is not a realistic possibility. From what i can see this is all infinitely more guarded and drip drip.

My reading is the US knows this, and is calculating on a relatively limited counteroffensive, carefully managed not to create a reactionary escalation from Russia, and going by earlier reports from the FT leading to a more official resignation to this new territorial reality by the end of the year. Or, they intend to continue with the slow blood letting for years to come < which would be deeply cynical IMO and achieve nothing but more death and suffering

 

[Cid]

thank you , yes thats the one.

Salient (military) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

it does seem to me that a push at just one point deep into Russian held territory creates its own potentially massive problem as Ukrainian forces are now surrounded as in the above Salient/Bulge. Surely a very real risk.

This is what I wrote earlier in the year before the counteroffensive officially began...I still think this:

I think they have probably noticed.

 

[Artaxerxes]

A salient is best cut through when the opposing army has the fuel and the speed and the efficiency to cut through its shoulders and fortify itself in place to prevent reinforcements


So far the Russians don’t appear to have any of the above

 

[StoneRoad]

And when the attackers ie the salient makers have the werewithall to reinforce those sides and actually widen them ... then it becomes a breakthrough ...

In this case, the salient at Robotyne / Verbove is leading up to the next line of defence.

 

[LDC]

thank you , yes thats the one.

Salient (military) - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

it does seem to me that a push at just one point deep into Russian held territory creates its own potentially massive problem as Ukrainian forces are now surrounded as in the above Salient/Bulge. Surely a very real risk.

This is what I wrote earlier in the year before the counteroffensive officially began...I still think this:

I suspect it's something they've thought about and considered in the planning?!

It is hard not to think you're partly wanting everything the Ukrainians do to fail in some hope it might end the war sooner.

 

[DownwardDog]

Pickman's model , what is the name of that military term for when a frontline is broken through and the advancing units find themselves surrounded as a result? We've talked about this before in relation to this push and you knew the actual term whilst i was just describing it.

Leeds vs Millwall next weekend.

 

[Magnus McGinty]

I suspect it's something they've thought about and considered in the planning?!

Internet experts see the things generals can’t see.

 

[Pickman's model]

Pickman's model , what is the name of that military term for when a frontline is broken through and the advancing units find themselves surrounded as a result? We've talked about this before in relation to this push and you knew the actual term whilst i was just describing it.

That's a salient point

 

[ska invita]

It is hard not to think you're partly wanting everything the Ukrainians do to fail in some hope it might end the war sooner.

I find it hard to believe "10km From Victory!" articles.


The idea the war ends in Russian defeat by this push is ridiculous to me. It seems very reasonable that if back is really against the wall Putin will throw everything to not lose this occuppied territory.

Sorry if my view isn't enough like cheering on a football team. The point of us talking about this is to understand reality, not to provide moral boosting war propaganda

 

[Rimbaud]

I find it hard to believe "10km From Victory!" articles.


The idea the war ends in Russian defeat by this push is ridiculous to me. It seems very reasonable that if back is really against the wall Putin will throw everything to not lose this occurred territory.

Sorry if my view isn't enough like cheering on a football team. The point of us talking about this is to understand reality, not to provide moral boosting war propaganda

The article doesn't predict outright victory in 10km, but predicts that Ukraine might be close to a major breakthrough on the Melitopol front, which means the position of the Russian army west of Melitopol will become untenable and the Russian land bridge to Crimea will be broken. It will be less of a breakthrough than last year's counter-offensive in terms of territory regained (probably, I haven't done the maths) and even if it is right that Ukraine can soon break down Russia's supply routes in the south, Russia will still control Crimea and most of Donetsk and Luhansk so the war will still be far from over.

It may be wrong, but it doesn't seem incredibly far fetched to me either.

 

[dilute micro]

I find it hard to believe "10km From Victory!" articles.


The idea the war ends in Russian defeat by this push is ridiculous to me. It seems very reasonable that if back is really against the wall Putin will throw everything to not lose this occurred territory.

Sorry if my view isn't enough like cheering on a football team. The point of us talking about this is to understand reality, not to provide moral boosting war propaganda

What will Putin throw at it? The belief in Russia's might is so strong despite everything in the news and reports from Ukraine and Russia that people still think railcars of T-90s are going to come riding up when things get serious.

 

[Cid]

I find it hard to believe "10km From Victory!" articles.


The idea the war ends in Russian defeat by this push is ridiculous to me. It seems very reasonable that if back is really against the wall Putin will throw everything to not lose this occurred territory.

Sorry if my view isn't enough like cheering on a football team. The point of us talking about this is to understand reality, not to provide moral boosting war propaganda

Sure, but the reality isn't 'aha, I think these people - people roughly London to Edinburgh from Volgograd, or London to Newcastle from Kursk - haven't noticed that their salient might be vulnerable'. Nor is it 'oh, Putin will just deal with this'. The reality is a mess of logistic chains, compromises on other parts of the front, husbanding of supplies etc. It is really hard to know what will happen here, but everyone from walts to milbloggers has looked at a map and gone 'oh, this is the obvious axis of advance'. Russia has been well aware of this for a long time, hence all the defences. And yet there is a salient. Maybe it's a fully pyrrhic situation with an unsustainable cost in lives to Ukraine. Maybe it's... not that. Those are the realities we don't know. But you're indulging in speculation as much as everyone else.

 

[Kaka Tim]

nobody - from the ukranian and russian to military to the CIA and not even internet "experts" - can accurately predict how the ukranian offenisive will pan out. What we do know is that it has been three months of grim attritional grind with very marginal advances and a shit load of death and destruction.
So far there have been no breakthroughs and the russian defences have done their job. however the ukranians are still attacking. Meanwhile the Russians are on the offensive in the east - so far the Ukranain lines are holding - but they are under heavy pressure.
In two weeks - or two months - time it may be the russian pressure results in Ukraniane calling off their offesnsive to protect their eastern flank. It may be that Ukraine breaks through in the south and the opposite happens. It maybe that Russian logistics become so degraded that they have to pull back. Or that a Ukranian breakthrough sparks a complte collapse in moral and the Russian army disintergrates. Or Ukraniane has over comitted its forces and has to significently pull back in the east and go completely on the defensive. Or both sides fight each other to a standstill and we end up with a ceasefire.
You can probably find evidence for all of these scenarios being the most likely outcome.
Key factor is probably resiliance of russian logistics and moral vs Urkainian ability to continue their offensive.