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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

UnderOpenSky said:
I was going to post this in what shit thing is Facebook advertising at you, but it's pretty next level.

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Whether that's real or not, it's not 'next level'. In Laos, which has roughly 2 million tonnes of US ordnance to choose from, bombs are recycled in many ways, from gateways to restaurants, restaurant menus, gateways to bridges etc and the smaller stuff is melted down into key rings, bottle openers etc. This produces an income for the impoverished people, has gone on for decades and the stuff is mainly produced in Ban na Pia village near the Plain of Jars, a megalithic archaeologocial site the US bombed the shit out of.
 
dilute micro said:
Again, what significance does being "trained and equipped" by westerners have to do with the "heavy work of getting anywhere"? You seem to think the Ukrainians should be farther along because of that aid, what little there is, being western, no details as to exactly what equipment, how much, and when it was able to be used (if it actually makes it to the field). To you, the training and equipment should be making the difference, right? I don't know about your literacy on the subject, but you should understand the basics. You should understand what Ukraine is facing, the type of battle, which would help you to understand the decisions and strategy made by the Ukrainian staff. Russia, otoh, is its own ball of wax. They're the ones with the huge military, although 2/3rds what it was before the invasion, and the military budget that eclipses Ukraine's. Russia should be much better off on the field and better supplied than they are. Both Russia and Ukraine are well noted for their corruption. Russia is winning that category. They've got their hands full fighting a defensive war in trenches, not just with the Ukrainians but with themselves. Turns out Russia's lack of coordination helped them lose Robotyne.
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I'll try this in short words as you seem not to get long ones. We have been told time and again that Russia are shit, it's a great theme on this thread. But Ukraine who have been great innovators bringing new ideas to the fight, who have had lots of help from nato, not just weapons but also training and information, ought to be doing rather better than they have if what we've been told throughout this thread is true. I am sorry there are some two and even four syllable words there, but eg Russia needs to be in there somewhere.
 
UnderOpenSky said:
I think that's something you can proper geek out on if you really know your stuff. My Dad had a number of old propellers. He knew they werent what they were sold as, but found them more interesting to work out what they came from and in some cases they were from even more obscure, but not as famous, planes as they were sold as being from.

Still wish he hadn't sold the RAF station clock we had through childhood, but I've got the replica he replaced it with.
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I have a Sensenich wood prop on my workshop wall that Im fairly sure came from a 1950 US Army target drone
 
Pickman's model said:
I'll try this in short words as you seem not to get long ones. We have been told time and again that Russia are shit, it's a great theme on this thread. But Ukraine who have been great innovators bringing new ideas to the fight, who have had lots of help from nato, not just weapons but also training and information, ought to be doing rather better than they have if what we've been told throughout this thread is true. I am sorry there are some two and even four syllable words there, but eg Russia needs to be in there somewhere.
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Thanks for the short words. That's very kind of you. But you're failing to see a number of things. One is that Ukraine hasn't had "lots of help", although "lots" is subjective. Ukraine has been given some things and not a lot of those things. So Ukraine has to be careful what they do with those things because they aren't likely to be replaced after they get destroyed in battle. NATO countries don't have "a lot" to give. Ukraine burns through a ton of munitions, and things like missiles and drones get shot out of the sky. Also, Ukraine hasn't been given the full combined arms kit but have been expected to act as if they do have it and to charge forward. On this, I side with Ukraine's strategy, at least until I see something that changes my mind. You understand that NATO, or General Cavoli, wouldn't expect NATO forces to do what they're expecting Ukraine to do. What the US did to Wagner in Syria is what NATO would do.

You think you can assess the sort of aid Ukraine has gotten and how that should translate to the battlefield. But the sort of things Ukraine has gotten isn't what they'd need to get the job done so quickly. They should have air superiority or enough air power to be able to take losses and still support the ground forces. They should have other technical equipment. And if western tanks make the difference, they should have many more of those too. They should have a lot of precision long range missiles. If they had these things, then I'd be inclined to agree with you that they should be moving farther along in the counteroffensive. But they don't have them. In the battle of Robotyne they did employ air. But this is risky for them.

Another thing you're not seeing is that Russia is the one that should be doing much better if the criticisms of their military were false. Remember, Russia was the one that had a 40 mile column of tanks, IFVs, and trucks and was just down the road from Kyiv. Remember the trucks breaking down and running out of fuel? That's poor planning, poor maintenance, poor logistics, and poor equipment etc. That's even worse than third world and it costed them. Ukraine did do good with that - infantry vs tanks. That aside, Russia's military could be rated as shit even if they weren't fighting a war.
 
dilute micro said:
Thanks for the short words. That's very kind of you. But you're failing to see a number of things. One is that Ukraine hasn't had "lots of help", although "lots" is subjective. Ukraine has been given some things and not a lot of those things. So Ukraine has to be careful what they do with those things because they aren't likely to be replaced after they get destroyed in battle. NATO countries don't have "a lot" to give. Ukraine burns through a ton of munitions, and things like missiles and drones get shot out of the sky. Also, Ukraine hasn't been given the full combined arms kit but have been expected to act as if they do have it and to charge forward. On this, I side with Ukraine's strategy, at least until I see something that changes my mind. You understand that NATO, or General Cavoli, wouldn't expect NATO forces to do what they're expecting Ukraine to do. What the US did to Wagner in Syria is what NATO would do.

You think you can assess the sort of aid Ukraine has gotten and how that should translate to the battlefield. But the sort of things Ukraine has gotten isn't what they'd need to get the job done so quickly. They should have air superiority or enough air power to be able to take losses and still support the ground forces. They should have other technical equipment. And if western tanks make the difference, they should have many more of those too. They should have a lot of precision long range missiles. If they had these things, then I'd be inclined to agree with you that they should be moving farther along in the counteroffensive. But they don't have them. In the battle of Robotyne they did employ air. But this is risky for them.

Another thing you're not seeing is that Russia is the one that should be doing much better if the criticisms of their military were false. Remember, Russia was the one that had a 40 mile column of tanks, IFVs, and trucks and was just down the road from Kyiv. Remember the trucks breaking down and running out of fuel? That's poor planning, poor maintenance, poor logistics, and poor equipment etc. That's even worse than third world and it costed them. Ukraine did do good with that - infantry vs tanks. That aside, Russia's military could be rated as shit even if they weren't fighting a war.
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You're very keen to tell me what i think. But you're wrong.
 
dilute micro said:
Thanks for the short words. That's very kind of you. But you're failing to see a number of things. One is that Ukraine hasn't had "lots of help", although "lots" is subjective. Ukraine has been given some things and not a lot of those things. So Ukraine has to be careful what they do with those things because they aren't likely to be replaced after they get destroyed in battle. NATO countries don't have "a lot" to give. Ukraine burns through a ton of munitions, and things like missiles and drones get shot out of the sky. Also, Ukraine hasn't been given the full combined arms kit but have been expected to act as if they do have it and to charge forward. On this, I side with Ukraine's strategy, at least until I see something that changes my mind. You understand that NATO, or General Cavoli, wouldn't expect NATO forces to do what they're expecting Ukraine to do. What the US did to Wagner in Syria is what NATO would do.

You think you can assess the sort of aid Ukraine has gotten and how that should translate to the battlefield. But the sort of things Ukraine has gotten isn't what they'd need to get the job done so quickly. They should have air superiority or enough air power to be able to take losses and still support the ground forces. They should have other technical equipment. And if western tanks make the difference, they should have many more of those too. They should have a lot of precision long range missiles. If they had these things, then I'd be inclined to agree with you that they should be moving farther along in the counteroffensive. But they don't have them. In the battle of Robotyne they did employ air. But this is risky for them.

Another thing you're not seeing is that Russia is the one that should be doing much better if the criticisms of their military were false. Remember, Russia was the one that had a 40 mile column of tanks, IFVs, and trucks and was just down the road from Kyiv. Remember the trucks breaking down and running out of fuel? That's poor planning, poor maintenance, poor logistics, and poor equipment etc. That's even worse than third world and it costed them. Ukraine did do good with that - infantry vs tanks. That aside, Russia's military could be rated as shit even if they weren't fighting a war.
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Right. The russians have a 3rd world military. Their military is shit. They don't have the precision weapons the Ukrainians have had billions of pounds of. They haven't had the training the combat troops deployed for the counter-offensive have. You're saying they're rubbish, they've had their generals killed, they've had their colonels killed, they've shit logistics and so on. And the only reason they're still fighting is - what? The mines? The Ukrainians have had fuck tons of weaponry, whichever way you look at it. How else could they have destroyed so many Russian tanks and so on? Strange how often the russians have been written off as you do here yet still their army is in the field. I said months and months ago we're not being told the unalloyed truth and here you are not only swallowing that but larding your posts with it
 
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The39thStep said:
Half time team talk ?

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"Ukraine and its supporters continue to plead for long-range missiles, known as ATACMS, that could hit deep behind Russian lines. But the Pentagon continues to resist, largely because officials fear the United States doesn’t have enough ATACMS to supply Ukraine without undercutting its own readiness for any future conflict with China"

I wonder if that's the real reason or an excuse
 
Pickman's model said:
Strange how often the russians have been written off as you do here yet still their army is in the field. I said months and months ago we're not being told the unalloyed truth and here you are not only swallowing that but landing your posts with it
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I think dilute micro’s the only person on the Internet that believes it
 
ska invita said:
"Ukraine and its supporters continue to plead for long-range missiles, known as ATACMS, that could hit deep behind Russian lines. But the Pentagon continues to resist, largely because officials fear the United States doesn’t have enough ATACMS to supply Ukraine without undercutting its own readiness for any future conflict with China"

I wonder if that's the real reason or an excuse
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I think it's probably a realisaton that if they hand them over then nothing much changes and the Ukrainians will just start banging on about the next thing they need. Leopards, F-16s, etc.
 
Pickman's model said:
Right. The russians have a 3rd world military. Their military is shit. They don't have the precision weapons the Ukrainians have had billions of pounds of. They haven't had the training the combat troops deployed for the counter-offensive have. You're saying they're rubbish, they've had their generals killed, they've had their colonels killed, they've shit logistics and so on. And the only reason they're still fighting is - what? The mines? The Ukrainians have had fuck tons of weaponry, whichever way you look at it. How else could they have destroyed so many Russian tanks and so on? Strange how often the russians have been written off as you do here yet still their army is in the field. I said months and months ago we're not being told the unalloyed truth and here you are not only swallowing that but landing your posts with it
Click to expand...

Russia has a big army and they do have some really good elements. They also, along with Ukraine, are ushering in the rest of the world into full on drone warfare. Russia is using drones very well too. The truth about Russia is they're jaw-droppingly bad. They have no excuse. Their army is eaten up with corruption. They're finding fake plate carriers filled with foam instead of ceramic or some kind of bullet stopping material, empty food containers, and explosives which are actually blocks of wood. This is because the commanders, who thought they'd never see a real war, made a deal with the manufacturers and pocketed part of the money. So military warehouses are stocked to some extent with fake gear. That's just part of it. Then there's lack of training which is so bad some soldiers have only ever shot a single magazine out of their rifle. Then there's the part of actually getting the shit kicked out of them by the Ukrainians. Russians are taking a heavy toll on Ukraine too. Russia is fighting from a defensive position now which mean they'll take less casualties than the attacker. Still, Ukraine, as corrupt as they are, are the best army in the country. Russia can't keep going down the same road, but there doesn't seem to be anyone in high places in Moscow that really cares. :)
 
Russia has a crap army but a crap army will still kill you dead with its crap weapons and its huge fucking numbers. A tank is a tank and a mine is a mine and Russia has fuck tons of both, I think its fair to say that Russia has shat out mines like confetti at a wedding at this point.

That Ukraine is still fighting at this point is not something anyone expected once the invasion hit, whether it can beat Russia to a stand still is anyones guess, we can but hope that eventually someone in Russia twigs this isn't worth continuing the fight over. Alas sunk cost fallacies exist and a modern nation state (is Russia actually one, commentators are divided) is a hard thing to make collapse.

 
dilute micro said:
Russia has a big army and they do have some really good elements. They also, along with Ukraine, are ushering in the rest of the world into full on drone warfare. Russia is using drones very well too. The truth about Russia is they're jaw-droppingly bad. They have no excuse. Their army is eaten up with corruption. They're finding fake plate carriers filled with foam instead of ceramic or some kind of bullet stopping material, empty food containers, and explosives which are actually blocks of wood. This is because the commanders, who thought they'd never see a real war, made a deal with the manufacturers and pocketed part of the money. So military warehouses are stocked to some extent with fake gear. That's just part of it. Then there's lack of training which is so bad some soldiers have only ever shot a single magazine out of their rifle. Then there's the part of actually getting the shit kicked out of them by the Ukrainians. Russians are taking a heavy toll on Ukraine too. Russia is fighting from a defensive position now which mean they'll take less casualties than the attacker. Still, Ukraine, as corrupt as they are, are the best army in the country. Russia can't keep going down the same road, but there doesn't seem to be anyone in high places in Moscow that really cares. :)
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Say all this was true at the start of the war. There's a good chance it was. What you're not asking is whether and to what extent it still is. As though in a year and a half of ongoing war no-one thought to look through the munitions and remove the blocks of wood, or got into the habit of checking the armour for foam. Corruption can fuck things up but failure also prompts questions from the high-ups and adjustments to the new reality. Neither army will be exactly the same after a long conflict, one way or another.
 
Street interviews with youngish, middle-classish Muscovites, so not representative of the whole country, about how to "stop the war". These were made over the past few days and none of those interviewed seem enthusiastic about the conflict. As I've said above in the thread, I've taught Russians from the same demographic most of whom have shown a similar lack of enthusiasm. Support for the conflict is much less equivocal amongst Ukrainians I encounter. I am always surprised at how willing Russians still are to speak out against the policies of the state, and to make the odd Wagner joke; and indeed that YouTubers can still get away with wandering the streets with camera and microphone asking provocative questions.





Edited to add a second video where men of "military age" are being asked about the chance of a future mobilisation and the threat of five years in gaol for anyone refusing to fight.

 
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Yes, 1420 is great. I watch all Daniils videos (he does go around Russia, into Siberian villages and the like, it’s not all Moscow). He’s very skilled at capturing atmosphere. I love his sarcasm and his ever changing looks. He did a great one a few weeks ago where someone was going on about the need to save Russia from sex and satanism - his deadpan responses were hilarious. I’ve developed strangely maternal feelings about him. May he stay safe and prosper.
 
www.forbes.com

As Ukraine’s Counteroffensive Gains Momentum, Russia Is Deploying Some Of Its Last Good Reserves

Any future effort to reinforce Russian defenses in one sector could come at the expense of Russian defenses in another sector.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com

Hopeful?

The Kremlin is rushing reinforcements to southern Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Oblast. It’s a desperate bid to prevent a major Ukrainian breakthrough along a critical axis.

The reinforcements are from the 76th Guards Air Assault Division, which is “arguably Russia’s best division and is relatively fresh,” according to Rob Lee, an analyst with the Foreign Policy Research Institute in Philadelphia. The division most recently went on the attack early this year around Kreminna, where the Russians still are sustaining a limited offensive.

That the Russians are redeploying the 76th GAAD speaks to the growing momentum of the Ukrainians’ 2023 counteroffensive, which kicked off with simultaneous armored assaults along several axes in southern and eastern Ukraine.

In just the last couple of weeks, the Ukrainian army and independent air-assault force have liberated Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia, while the Ukrainian marine corps has ejected Russian troops from Urozhaine, 60 miles east of Robotyne in the Mokri Yaly River Valley.
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I've stayed in 'wait and see' mode for almost three months since the start of this offensive, and it does look like they are finally starting to properly get under way, and getting close to the 'all or noting' stage', so I am just get hoping for the best now, whilst knowing it could go horribly wrong.

They now believe they have broken through the most difficult line of Russian defences in the south and will begin to advance more quickly, a commander who led troops into Robotyne has said. Robotyne is about six miles south of the frontline town of Orikhiv in the Zaporizhzhia region.

Ukraine believes it is a strategic location as it sits on an important road towards Tokmak, a Russian-occupied road and rail hub. If Ukraine is able to recapture Tokmak, it would mark a milestone and allow troops to press southwards towards the Sea of Azov.

The move would help Ukraine to split Russian forces. LINK
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And, this could be further trouble for the Russians.

A neo-Nazi paramilitary unit has threatened to stop fighting on a "critical" front if the Kremlin can't free its founder from Finnish custody, military analysts have said. Yan Petrovsky, leader of Rusich - a unit affiliated with Wagner - was detained in Finland on Friday at Ukraine's request, according to the group and social media channels linked to Wagner. Now Rusich has said it won't protect Russians until the Russian government does so, accusing it of failing to secure the release of Petrovsky.

"Russian irregular formations remain willing to threaten to withdraw from combat unilaterally despite recent efforts by Russian military command to purge and suppress insubordination," said the Institute for the Study of War. The US-based think tank said the Rusich Group is likely to be based along the Robotyne-Verbove front, in the Zaporizhzhia region, where Russia "cannot afford for any units to rebel". LINK
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Does beg the question, why on earth was this Yan Petrovsky chap in Finland in the first place, school boy error?
 
ska invita said:
"Ukraine and its supporters continue to plead for long-range missiles, known as ATACMS, that could hit deep behind Russian lines. But the Pentagon continues to resist, largely because officials fear the United States doesn’t have enough ATACMS to supply Ukraine without undercutting its own readiness for any future conflict with China"

I wonder if that's the real reason or an excuse
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They're never going to get the latest and greatest, except for the small things like guns and antitank missiles. It's the decided opinion of the DoD (and the MoD, for that matter) that the chaos of the Ukrainian military is rife with Russian agents. Even with the UK being particularly friendly, those much lauded Storm Shadows are over 20 year old tech. Their best chance at something more modern than that is if Sweden approves the later block Gripens. There are things like jamming pods and modern radar and the like that you don't want a potential enemy even getting a sniff of, because it works so much better as a surprise.
 
cupid_stunt said:
I've stayed in 'wait and see' mode for almost three months since the start of this offensive, and it does look like they are finally starting to properly get under way, and getting close to the 'all or noting' stage', so I am just get hoping for the best now, whilst knowing it could go horribly wrong.
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What's the all or nothing stage?
 
ska invita said:
What's the all or nothing stage?
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The final crunch point, either making substantial gains ideally resulting in the Russians' withdrawal, or failure to break though, resulting in a continued stalled position, with neither side moving much, for possibly years.
 
Despite the Optimistic Ukrainian self assesment I think they will be doing well to even hold on to Robotdyne, they are surrounded by Russkies and have a difficult water crossing betwen them and their main forces, Re-supply and reinforcement won't be easy
 
cupid_stunt said:
I've stayed in 'wait and see' mode for almost three months since the start of this offensive, and it does look like they are finally starting to properly get under way, and getting close to the 'all or noting' stage', so I am just get hoping for the best now, whilst knowing it could go horribly wrong.



And, this could be further trouble for the Russians.



Does beg the question, why on earth was this Yan Petrovsky chap in Finland in the first place, school boy error?
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According to claims made in the initial interviews for court he wanted his children to receive a 'Scandinavian' education and his wife had already been offered a place at a Finnish University. He has some connection with Norway.

yle.fi

HS: россиянин, подозреваемый в военных преступлениях, въехал в Финляндию благодаря новому имени

Согласно HS, Торден въехал в Финляндию на машине 19 июля в сопровождении жены и троих детей. Его адвокат сообщила HS, что Торден хотел, чтобы его дети получили скандинавское образование.
yle.fi yle.fi

Rusich are very small Nazi paramilitary grouping , numbers vary but anything from a couple of dozen to a maximum of a 100, and the top figure would include members of other far right grouplets that come and go.

Petrovsky funnily enough still corresponds with Mikael Skillt who was in Azov and now the Ukraine National Legion from when they were on opposite side in Donbass in the 2014 war.
 
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I don't believe there's a house left standing and "Ukraine Liberates Robotyne" in the media. A lot of Ukraine will never be rebuilt. A lot of Ukrainians will never return to Ukraine.
 
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