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Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

teuchter said:
It just seems to me that it's not unreasonable to say there might be some rather over optimistic expectations about what's going to happen. If as you say they are "writing the textbooks of war colleges all over the world" then no-one ought to have much confidence in any predictions. My impression that progress is painfully slow is not an especially important one in itself, because I have virtually no expertise in this stuff. But when I see some very confident predictions that in due course they are going to be successful, I don't feel these are based on anything very solid. Surely no-one can really say with much confidence what's going to happen. Of course, we all (including me) want to see them suddenly make some visible and substantial progress but, stating the obvious, wanting to see something happen is not the same thing as having good reason to expect it. Also, understanding and seeing the logic in Ukraine's strategy, is not the same thing as knowing it will work.
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I get what you're saying. I think a lot of people believe Ukraine 'can' get the job done, but don't think it's a sure thing. Time is not on Ukraine's side. Russia can still win (control Kyiv) in the long run.

What has been impressive is the preparatory work for the counteroffensive, like taking out bridges to cut off Russia's supplies. Other things have been, too, like Ukraine adapting to drone warfare and fighting off counterattacks. Progress is in the context of war. Optimism comes from the whole thing, not just what Ukraine is doing. It's also what Russia isn't doing. Russia is horrible. There are more and more reports by Russians themselves of how bad things are in their ranks. Some units have no officers. They're running out of ammo, running out of food, running out of replacement parts for vehicles, running out of artillery, running out of tanks, running out of aircraft, running out of soldiers, and running out of trained soldiers. Their command is shaky. It's been said that they, being units all the way up to the entire army in Ukraine, could be on the verge of collapse should Ukraine make a breakthrough. Russia's army is very fragile in equipment and its psyche. They're not what we thought of the USSR back in the 80s, a juggernaut. They are third world. A lot of this has surprised Russian command. They really believed in their superiority.
 
dilute micro said:
I get what you're saying. I think a lot of people believe Ukraine 'can' get the job done, but don't think it's a sure thing. Time is not on Ukraine's side. Russia can still win (control Kyiv) in the long run.

What has been impressive is the preparatory work for the counteroffensive, like taking out bridges to cut off Russia's supplies. Other things have been, too, like Ukraine adapting to drone warfare and fighting off counterattacks. Progress is in the context of war. Optimism comes from the whole thing, not just what Ukraine is doing. It's also what Russia isn't doing. Russia is horrible. There are more and more reports by Russians themselves of how bad things are in their ranks. Some units have no officers. They're running out of ammo, running out of food, running out of replacement parts for vehicles, running out of artillery, running out of tanks, running out of aircraft, running out of soldiers, and running out of trained soldiers. Their command is shaky. It's been said that they, being units all the way up to the entire army in Ukraine, could be on the verge of collapse should Ukraine make a breakthrough. Russia's army is very fragile in equipment and its psyche. They're not what we thought of the USSR back in the 80s, a juggernaut. They are third world. A lot of this has surprised Russian command. They really believed in their superiority.
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I don’t know where you’re getting your information regarding the state of Russia’s Military but I’m sure it’s a very reliable source
 
dilute micro said:
I get what you're saying. I think a lot of people believe Ukraine 'can' get the job done, but don't think it's a sure thing. Time is not on Ukraine's side. Russia can still win (control Kyiv) in the long run.

What has been impressive is the preparatory work for the counteroffensive, like taking out bridges to cut off Russia's supplies. Other things have been, too, like Ukraine adapting to drone warfare and fighting off counterattacks. Progress is in the context of war. Optimism comes from the whole thing, not just what Ukraine is doing. It's also what Russia isn't doing. Russia is horrible. There are more and more reports by Russians themselves of how bad things are in their ranks. Some units have no officers. They're running out of ammo, running out of food, running out of replacement parts for vehicles, running out of artillery, running out of tanks, running out of aircraft, running out of soldiers, and running out of trained soldiers. Their command is shaky. It's been said that they, being units all the way up to the entire army in Ukraine, could be on the verge of collapse should Ukraine make a breakthrough. Russia's army is very fragile in equipment and its psyche. They're not what we thought of the USSR back in the 80s, a juggernaut. They are third world. A lot of this has surprised Russian command. They really believed in their superiority.
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You say that about the Russian forces and it's been repeated so often the last couple of years. Yet we find ourselves in a place where the western trained and equipped Ukrainian forces are making very heavy work of getting anywhere. If Ukraine is so innovative and Russia is so utterly crap there must be more than a load of mines to explain why Ukraine isn't trouncing Russia
 
Guardian this morning.
  • German magazine Der Spiegel published a lengthy and detailed investigation into the attack on the Nord Stream pipeline. It cites German investigators – who are undertaking “the most important investigation of Germany’s postwar history because of its potential political implications” – and reported that “a striking number of clues point to Ukraine”.

It seems there is a great deal of enthusiasm for Ukraine to be lobbing drones at Russia. To what avail though? Russia lobbing cheap drones at Kiev provokes the use of patriot and other missiles which are very costly and limited in supply.

The Russians historical willingness to accept high casualties is not mirrored by Ukraine.

Lobbing stuff won’t win the war. At some point they will have to really push. Supply lines will be tricky if they continue south.
 
TopCat said:
Guardian this morning.
  • German magazine Der Spiegel published a lengthy and detailed investigation into the attack on the Nord Stream pipeline. It cites German investigators – who are undertaking “the most important investigation of Germany’s postwar history because of its potential political implications” – and reported that “a striking number of clues point to Ukraine”.

It seems there is a great deal of enthusiasm for Ukraine to be lobbing drones at Russia. To what avail though? Russia lobbing cheap drones at Kiev provokes the use of patriot and other missiles which are very costly and limited in supply.

The Russians historical willingness to accept high casualties is not mirrored by Ukraine.

Lobbing stuff won’t win the war. At some point they will have to really push. Supply lines will be tricky if they continue south.
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Have been talking about Nordstream details and repercussions on the Gas thread
 
UnderOpenSky said:
I was going to post this in what shit thing is Facebook advertising at you, but it's pretty next level.

View attachment 389064
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I watch BBC antiques TV shows and this seems pretty standard behaviour, always bits of metal from this or that plane or submarine showing up
 
UnderOpenSky said:
I was going to post this in what shit thing is Facebook advertising at you, but it's pretty next level.

View attachment 389064
Click to expand...
The German knife makers bõker offer knives for sale made from the tirpitz and sherman tanks so this is small beer and rather disappointing

www.boker.de

Tirpitz-Damascus

A piece of history comes to life! The Tirpitz, sister ship of the legendary Bismarck, was the largest battleship ever launched for the German Navy. After the commissioning in February 1941, the Tirpitz soon became a permanent threat for...
www.boker.de www.boker.de

This made from a leopard tank Barlow Integral Leopard-Damascus
 
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TopCat said:
Guardian this morning.
  • German magazine Der Spiegel published a lengthy and detailed investigation into the attack on the Nord Stream pipeline. It cites German investigators – who are undertaking “the most important investigation of Germany’s postwar history because of its potential political implications” – and reported that “a striking number of clues point to Ukraine”.

It seems there is a great deal of enthusiasm for Ukraine to be lobbing drones at Russia. To what avail though? Russia lobbing cheap drones at Kiev provokes the use of patriot and other missiles which are very costly and limited in supply.

The Russians historical willingness to accept high casualties is not mirrored by Ukraine.

Lobbing stuff won’t win the war. At some point they will have to really push. Supply lines will be tricky if they continue south.
Click to expand...

Both Ukraine and Russian refined seem currently willing to accept high military casualties. The Ukrainians I have taught see it as an existential struggle. That includes those from Russian speaking backgrounds as well as those who have been injured, abused and had close friends killed. Some of the Russians I've taught support the government, others are guardedly critical.

The drones lobed at Moscow have unnerved the civilian population. I would also assume that people in Belogrod feel under siege.
 
Bahnhof Strasse said:
There's a beautiful Spitfire propeller on the wall of my dad's local, the landlord paid £800 for it, upon asking how much it would cost to get a new one of those made today, the answer: £800.
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I think that's something you can proper geek out on if you really know your stuff. My Dad had a number of old propellers. He knew they werent what they were sold as, but found them more interesting to work out what they came from and in some cases they were from even more obscure, but not as famous, planes as they were sold as being from.

Still wish he hadn't sold the RAF station clock we had through childhood, but I've got the replica he replaced it with.
 
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Pickman's model said:
You say that about the Russian forces and it's been repeated so often the last couple of years. Yet we find ourselves in a place where the western trained and equipped Ukrainian forces are making very heavy work of getting anywhere. If Ukraine is so innovative and Russia is so utterly crap there must be more than a load of mines to explain why Ukraine isn't trouncing Russia
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Which itself has been repeated over and over. In your mind, what does "western trained and equipped" mean? Should Ukrainian forces be standing the coast already?
 
Pickman's model said:
You're appearing rather stupid but I was trying to be kind
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Oh, no, it's not me. Let's see, what significance does being "western trained and equipped" mean in your post above? You put it there. You should know. You were talking about Ukraine having a tough time "getting anywhere". Is it that you expect Ukraine should be achieving more on the battlefield, having been given western equipment and training?
 
Pickman's model said:
You say that about the Russian forces and it's been repeated so often the last couple of years. Yet we find ourselves in a place where the western trained and equipped Ukrainian forces are making very heavy work of getting anywhere. If Ukraine is so innovative and Russia is so utterly crap there must be more than a load of mines to explain why Ukraine isn't trouncing Russia
Click to expand...
The fuckton of mines backed by dug in soldiers with artillery would be sufficient to hold back most of NATO if they were in the same hole as Ukraine in not having an air force worth speaking of. It is true what you say though - the supremacy of Ukrainian soldiers over Russian ones is wholly overstated, and mostly founded in the morale difference of being an invader vs. defending your country. The vast majority of Ukrainian soldiers are barely trained and still using a lot of Soviet era gear. They do have elite divisions trained and equipped by the West, but precious few of them and they've struggled to make the slightest difference in the monumental battle they face.

I do know someone who spent a few months in Poland assisting with training, and his opinion of Ukrainian soldiers... was not complimentary. They seemed of the opinion that since they had success doing it their way in the past, the West had nothing to teach them. Seemingly unaware that the war they face now is entirely different to the first phase. (He also thought the Germans were terrible teachers, but that could just be his RM past)
 
dilute micro said:
Oh, no, it's not me. Let's see, what significance does being "western trained and equipped" mean in your post above? You put it there. You should know. You were talking about Ukraine having a tough time "getting anywhere". Is it that you expect Ukraine should be achieving more on the battlefield, having been given western equipment and training?
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Western trained and equipped is a simple statement of fact. Maybe not all of them but we know nato countries have provided training before and during the war. That they're having a torrid time of it suggests to me if not to you that perhaps the russians aren't quite as shit and so on as we're so often told they are on this thread. Oh and it is you
 
Pickman's model said:
Western trained and equipped is a simple statement of fact. Maybe not all of them but we know nato countries have provided training before and during the war. That they're having a torrid time of it suggests to me if not to you that perhaps the russians aren't quite as shit and so on as we're so often told they are on this thread. Oh and it is you
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Again, what significance does being "trained and equipped" by westerners have to do with the "heavy work of getting anywhere"? You seem to think the Ukrainians should be farther along because of that aid, what little there is, being western, no details as to exactly what equipment, how much, and when it was able to be used (if it actually makes it to the field). To you, the training and equipment should be making the difference, right? I don't know about your literacy on the subject, but you should understand the basics. You should understand what Ukraine is facing, the type of battle, which would help you to understand the decisions and strategy made by the Ukrainian staff. Russia, otoh, is its own ball of wax. They're the ones with the huge military, although 2/3rds what it was before the invasion, and the military budget that eclipses Ukraine's. Russia should be much better off on the field and better supplied than they are. Both Russia and Ukraine are well noted for their corruption. Russia is winning that category. They've got their hands full fighting a defensive war in trenches, not just with the Ukrainians but with themselves. Turns out Russia's lack of coordination helped them lose Robotyne.
 
I can think of at least one example of "Western Training & Equipment" that has made a difference.

HIMARS, whilst "just" a MRLS does require some specialist training and the liberation of Kherson.
 
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