Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[teuchter]

ISW's map has had another tweak - they've added another blue tone to indicate land liberated in the past 24hrs.
Makes scanning the long front line a tad easier.

Using that aid, yesterday {and the day before} the Ukrainians have made some advances in the Robotyne / Verbove area, producing quite a decent salient.

Counting up the light blue patches of liberated territory, I made that advances - some small, some much bigger - have been in over 30 areas on a very long front line.

Once you zoom out and see the size of these advances relative to the entire occupied area, and compare them to the yellow bits, which seem to be Russian advances, it doesn't give an especially optimistic picture.

 

[teuchter]

Ukraine is apparently going to make a push from Robotyne, which they've just taken,

And what does taking Robotyne amount to?

It's not a town or city but a small rural village with about 5 streets.



Good luck to them if it gives them some kind of opening to go further though.

 

[keybored]

And what does taking Robotyne amount to?


It's not a town or city but a small rural village with about 5 streets.

It's high ground and places Tokmak within artillery reach. Tokmak is a major Russian logistics hub. That's why Ukrainian forces have been fighting so hard for Robotyne (and likewise Russians have been defending it) for 2 whole months.

Once you zoom out and see the size of these advances relative to the entire occupied area, and compare them to the yellow bits, which seem to be Russian advances, it doesn't give an especially optimistic picture.

The whole of the red area isn't the front line though. Once (if) the front line collapses, you'd expect things to move a lot more quickly.

 

[The39thStep]

Postimees and EPL: Kaja Kallas, resign

Editorials published on the websites of three of Estonia's major dailies have called for Kaja Kallas to step down as prime minister of Estonia in the wake of revelations that a company her husband has a stake in has made a profit from shipping manufactured products to Russia, since the...

news.err.ee

And what does taking Robotyne amount to?

It's not a town or city but a small rural village with about 5 streets.

View attachment 388800

Good luck to them if it gives them some kind of opening to go further though.

Both sides and their fans have the same narrative ie Highly strategic gateway to such and such when gained, insignificant when lost.

 

[dilute micro]

And what does taking Robotyne amount to?

It's not a town or city but a small rural village with about 5 streets.

View attachment 388800

Good luck to them if it gives them some kind of opening to go further though.

You sort of answered your own question. It's important because Ukraine will have to take it in order to take Tokmak which is a traffic hub and along the line of travel to Melitopol where Ukraine can cut off the land bridge. Ukraine broke through the "first line" in Robotyne. The main line is 10km beyond, I believe. It will be tougher. It's speculated that Ukraine will turn the Challengers and Abrams loose to break the main line. We'll see. I'm sure Ukraine has a pre-wet-weather plan. No one knows what they hope to get done when.

 

[dilute micro]

Once you zoom out and see the size of these advances relative to the entire occupied area, and compare them to the yellow bits, which seem to be Russian advances, it doesn't give an especially optimistic picture.

View attachment 388798

Just because an area on a map is marked red doesn't mean it's crawling with Russians. The "lines" are what Russia really holds. They're called lines but are mostly a bunch of sporadically placed or loosely connected fortifications.

 

[jeff_leigh]

Meanwhile, whilst all eyes are on a bunch of Nazis falling from the sky it seems Ukrainian troops have landed in Crimea, had a few skirmishes, beaten what opponents they have met and are bedding in. Failed counter offensive and that…

They landed in Crimea, Fired off a few rounds, Took a couple of selfies, Jumped back into their boats and left, Claimed to have killed over 30 Russian troops without taking any casualties

 

[StoneRoad]

They landed in Crimea, Fired off a few rounds, Took a couple of selfies, Jumped back into their boats and left, Claimed to have killed over 30 Russian troops without taking any casualties

at about the same time & place "someone" bopped the S-400 system & filmed the action ...

 

[existentialist]

Once you zoom out and see the size of these advances relative to the entire occupied area, and compare them to the yellow bits, which seem to be Russian advances, it doesn't give an especially optimistic picture.

View attachment 388798

Isn't that a bit like saying "I don't know why you're putting all that effort into cracking the shell of that egg, when 95% of the egg is squishy, runny stuff?

 

[teuchter]

Isn't that a bit like saying "I don't know why you're putting all that effort into cracking the shell of that egg, when 95% of the egg is squishy, runny stuff?

I don't believe it is like saying that, no.

I'm just commenting on what I see, not saying they should or shouldn't be doing anything.

Whether the egg analogy makes any sense I don't know, I'm not any kind of military expert. But what I observe is months of reports of small cracks in the line and no significant advance beyond.

 

[Artaxerxes]

Good to see we're all back to being experts on modern warfare.

 

[Pickman's model]

I don't believe it is like saying that, no.

I'm just commenting on what I see, not saying they should or shouldn't be doing anything.

Whether the egg analogy makes any sense I don't know, I'm not any kind of military expert. But what I observe is months of reports of small cracks in the line and no significant advance beyond.

Lots of seeing but very little consideration of what you see

 

[Pickman's model]

Just because an area on a map is marked red doesn't mean it's crawling with Russians. The "lines" are what Russia really holds. They're called lines but are mostly a bunch of sporadically placed or loosely connected fortifications.

You say that. But obviously it's not really as you describe or some there'd have been more restiveness in crimea and perhaps something more striking than special reconnaissance or a small raid.

 

[StoneRoad]

oh, ffs - As has been explained many times ...
The reason for the slow pace of advance overall is that the Ukrainians are counter-attacking over miles [literally] of minefields and other barriers against an invader that has had time to dig extensive defences and fortify a huge number of strong points, in multiple lines.
Ukraine's higher command are also trying to conserve the lives of the Ukrainian armed forces by not doing the human wave attacks that Wagner were doing in Bakhmut and other places.
I am sure the Ukrainians will win this fight, as long as the ammunition and other supplies continue to arrive in a timely manner.

 

[teuchter]

The reason for the slow pace of advance overall is that the Ukrainians are counter-attacking over miles [literally] of minefields and other barriers against an invader that has had time to dig extensive defences and fortify a huge number of strong points, in multiple lines.

I might be wrong but there's not really been any significant advance at all, for months, has there? It's not a matter of slow but steady advance; there is no real "pace"; it's a frontline of people killing each other while that line barely moves in any direction. I would like to see Ukraine start to make some progress but it seems very optimistic to think that anything much is about to change. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[StoneRoad]

I might be wrong but there's not really been any significant advance at all, for months, has there? It's not a matter of slow but steady advance; there is no real "pace"; it's a frontline of people killing each other while that line barely moves in any direction. I would like to see Ukraine start to make some progress but it seems very optimistic to think that anything much is about to change. I hope I'm wrong.

The sweeping advances the Ukrainians made last year are unlikely atm.
They have to get past the aforementioned trenches, minefields and thousands of strong points.
Every likely it is going to be a long & slow process.
They have managed in push back at least two quite large salients, one south of Bakhmut, and broken through the first line of defence in Robotyne.
I repeat, they are attacking a physically strong layout of minefields, trenches etc. with a sound "elastic defence" doctrine.
However, it would appear that their opponents don't really have enough combat-ready reserves to reinforce their front lines and are doing "lateral deployments" from areas under less heavy attacks. Neither are they able to adequately rotate front-line units for periods of R&R nor fully replenish headcount that is reducing from causalities / fatalities.
Eventually, those over-tired and under-strength units will give way, especially in the zones where two units border each other - given the top-down command structure & lack of officers, those areas will be another weak point.

 

[The39thStep]

oh, ffs - As has been explained many times ...
The reason for the slow pace of advance overall is that the Ukrainians are counter-attacking over miles [literally] of minefields and other barriers against an invader that has had time to dig extensive defences and fortify a huge number of strong points, in multiple lines.
Ukraine's higher command are also trying to conserve the lives of the Ukrainian armed forces by not doing the human wave attacks that Wagner were doing in Bakhmut and other places.
I am sure the Ukrainians will win this fight, as long as the ammunition and other supplies continue to arrive in a timely manner.

This was in spite of the US's tactical advice

Joint war games conducted by the U.S., British and Ukrainian militaries anticipated such losses but envisioned Kyiv accepting the casualties as the cost of piercing through Russia’s main defensive line, said U.S. and Western officials.

But Ukraine chose to stem the losses on the battlefield and switch to a tactic of relying on smaller units to push forward across different areas of the front. That resulted in Ukraine making incremental gains in different pockets over the summer.

Washington Post

American officials say they fear that Ukraine has become casualty averse, one reason it has been cautious about pressing ahead with the counteroffensive. Almost any big push against dug-in Russian defenders protected by minefields would result in huge numbers of losses.
In just a year and a half, Ukraine’s military deaths have already surpassed the number of American troops who died during the nearly two decades U.S. units were in Vietnam (roughly 58,000) and about equal the number of Afghan security forces killed over the entire war in Afghanistan, from 2001 to 2021 (around 69,000).

New York Times

 

[_Russ_]

American officials say they fear that Ukraine has become casualty averse

Coming from America who haven't engaged an enemy without having overwhelming capability and likelihood of low casualties since the Vietnam fuck up....yeah right

 

[Pickman's model]

Coming from America who haven't engaged an enemy without having overwhelming capability and likelihood of low casualties since the Vietnam fuck up....yeah right

It's always been a different deal for their allies as I thought you - our arch-walt - would know. The arvn casualties not to mention the Afghan and iraqi army casualties stand as testament to that

 

[StoneRoad]

Throwing your army lives away on attacking a well-dug in opponent is not a good look domestically {compare how critically people responded to Wagner doing that at Bakhmut} even if you have an endless supply of warm bodies.

What is effective is to degrade the supply process and rear areas, be that attacking ammunition / fuel dumps , food or reserves, whilst making nibbling attacks at the front door.

Back last year, Ukraine was making very slow advances towards Kherson, precisely because they were degrading supply logistics by, for example, frequently attacking ammo dumps and the Antonisky Bridge., instead of making costly frontal attacks through minefields.

One of the probable reasons they've not yet made significant advances across the Dnipro River is that the floods in June swept away and re-deposited river bank minefields, as well as rearranging many of the surface features.

 

[dilute micro]

You say that. But obviously it's not really as you describe or some there'd have been more restiveness in crimea and perhaps something more striking than special reconnaissance or a small raid.

Even the small raid was a surprise. Ukraine does not have the resources to do a D-day landing with a large force. That would require tanks, air support and lots of soldiers. Small commando units can't make a landing and stay there for any length of time without eventually getting rockets or tanks blowing them to smithereens.

 

[Crispy]

It's high ground and places Tokmak within artillery reach. Tokmak is a major Russian logistics hub. That's why Ukrainian forces have been fighting so hard for Robotyne (and likewise Russians have been defending it) for 2 whole months.

Yep, the railway is right in the range of the nato 155mm artillery. It becomes more obvious when you overlay a transport map. All the railways in the Western parts of occupied Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts pass through Tokmak. A good many major roads too. If they can prevent the Russians from moving men/equipment through Tokmak, it will weaken the whole front from there to Kherson.

 

[StoneRoad]

Because ISW have "reset" their map, it doesn't show all the liberated areas. Which I think skews the viewpoint a little.

To see all of the liberated areas try here {note the boundary lines are somewhat less tightly drawn than for the ISW map}...

DeepStateMAP | Map of the war in Ukraine

News of Russia's war against Ukraine on the map

deepstatemap.live

 

[The39thStep]

Yep, the railway is right in the range of the nato 155mm artillery. It becomes more obvious when you overlay a transport map. All the railways in the Western parts of occupied Zaporizhia and Kherson oblasts pass through Tokmak. A good many major roads too. If they can prevent the Russians from moving men/equipment through Tokmak, it will weaken the whole front from there to Kherson.

View attachment 388924

Don't like that use of pink crayon tbh

 

[Pickman's model]

Even the small raid was a surprise. Ukraine does not have the resources to do a D-day landing with a large force. That would require tanks, air support and lots of soldiers. Small commando units can't make a landing and stay there for any length of time without eventually getting rockets or tanks blowing them to smithereens.

Have a stating the obvious point. After all the UK can't do a d-day landing now, nor France Italy Germany or even the United States

 

[dilute micro]

I might be wrong but there's not really been any significant advance at all, for months, has there? It's not a matter of slow but steady advance; there is no real "pace"; it's a frontline of people killing each other while that line barely moves in any direction. I would like to see Ukraine start to make some progress but it seems very optimistic to think that anything much is about to change. I hope I'm wrong.

Be careful of how you're drawing your conclusions. Russia is not fighting NATO, no matter what Putin thinks. Ukraine doesn't have all the tools that NATO would use and is having to make do. For instance, NATO would knock out Russia's air defenses and then bomb the trench fortifications and then move forward under the cover of their own air support. Ukraine can't knock out Russian air defense. They can't do it the NATO way and as a result, are having to advance the most difficult way there is, which is going to be slow and involve more chess playing. That's what Zaluzhny has been doing. Ukraine has had to test the Russians to see how they'd respond to Ukrainian movements. Ukraine has also had to find the best places to cross the river(s) and the best places to attack the Russian lines. Some areas of the lines are far more difficult than other areas. That has taken time in and of itself, besides minefields. Consider what it must be like for Zaluzhny. He's having to put together a plan without knowing what hardware his soldiers might have in the future. Can you imagine the stress? Zelensky has been looking rough lately, too. It might not look impressive, but Zaluzhny and his staff are writing the textbooks of war colleges all over the world. I think the media and some of the ex-military talking heads create a false perception of what we should expect. The west have motivations of their own, and not all of those are any fault of their own. It's just the way it is.

But Zaluzhny also pointed to NATO forces’ own doctrine — which parallels Russia’s, he said — that calls for air superiority before launching ground-based deep-reaching operations.
“And Ukraine, moving to offensive operations, should follow which doctrine?” Zaluzhny said. “NATO's? The Russian Federation's? Or is that none of your business? ‘You have your own doctrine. You have tanks, you have some cannons, you have some [fighting vehicles]. You can do it.’ What is that?” - Washington Post

 

[dilute micro]

Have a stating the obvious point. After all the UK can't do a d-day landing now, nor France Italy Germany or even the United States

I thought you were expecting more from Ukraine in Crimea. I thought what they did was impressive. And for the record, neither could the Allies do a D-day back in the 40's without being stalled at the coast once the Germans figured out what was going on.

 

[Pickman's model]

I thought you were expecting more from Ukraine in Crimea. I thought what they did was impressive. And for the record, neither could the Allies do a D-day back in the 40's without being stalled at the coast once the Germans figured out what was going on.

I think the Russian grip on crimea is quite tight. That they don't need troops everywhere speaks to their grip on the peninsula.

 

[Chz]

I thought you were expecting more from Ukraine in Crimea. I thought what they did was impressive. And for the record, neither could the Allies do a D-day back in the 40's without being stalled at the coast once the Germans figured out what was going on.

It's only because the Normandy beaches did work out that Dieppe isn't a byword for colossal farce.

 

[teuchter]

Be careful of how you're drawing your conclusions. Russia is not fighting NATO, no matter what Putin thinks. Ukraine doesn't have all the tools that NATO would use and is having to make do. For instance, NATO would knock out Russia's air defenses and then bomb the trench fortifications and then move forward under the cover of their own air support. Ukraine can't knock out Russian air defense. They can't do it the NATO way and as a result, are having to advance the most difficult way there is, which is going to be slow and involve more chess playing. That's what Zaluzhny has been doing. Ukraine has had to test the Russians to see how they'd respond to Ukrainian movements. Ukraine has also had to find the best places to cross the river(s) and the best places to attack the Russian lines. Some areas of the lines are far more difficult than other areas. That has taken time in and of itself, besides minefields. Consider what it must be like for Zaluzhny. He's having to put together a plan without knowing what hardware his soldiers might have in the future. Can you imagine the stress? Zelensky has been looking rough lately, too. It might not look impressive, but Zaluzhny and his staff are writing the textbooks of war colleges all over the world. I think the media and some of the ex-military talking heads create a false perception of what we should expect. The west have motivations of their own, and not all of those are any fault of their own. It's just the way it is.

It just seems to me that it's not unreasonable to say there might be some rather over optimistic expectations about what's going to happen. If as you say they are "writing the textbooks of war colleges all over the world" then no-one ought to have much confidence in any predictions. My impression that progress is painfully slow is not an especially important one in itself, because I have virtually no expertise in this stuff. But when I see some very confident predictions that in due course they are going to be successful, I don't feel these are based on anything very solid. Surely no-one can really say with much confidence what's going to happen. Of course, we all (including me) want to see them suddenly make some visible and substantial progress but, stating the obvious, wanting to see something happen is not the same thing as having good reason to expect it. Also, understanding and seeing the logic in Ukraine's strategy, is not the same thing as knowing it will work.