Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[The39thStep]

In future times, hundreds of years after... today, a new race of people... Will probably write several papers on niche references in online communities.

Ok, that was very laboured.

Calmer than you dude

 

[DaveCinzano]

Bizarre gardening accident

The perfect second-album-name he himself can never now use

 

[The39thStep]

Interesting look at NATO training from a Ukrainian viewpoint

‘The West doesn’t understand how we are fighting’

Western instructors don’t understand the kind of war or enemy that we’re fighting, say Ukrainian soldiers

www.opendemocracy.net

 

[Chz]

Interesting look at NATO training from a Ukrainian viewpoint

‘The West doesn’t understand how we are fighting’

Western instructors don’t understand the kind of war or enemy that we’re fighting, say Ukrainian soldiers

www.opendemocracy.net

As I've been told, the West understands full well. The Ukrainians just seem to have a rather optimistic notion of what can be done with raw recruits in 5 weeks. Yes, it's more important to teach them not to shoot each other than it is to teach about mine-clearing - which is something left for specialised units anyhow. Raw recruits shouldn't be clearing mines. You're not hearing these complaints out of the elite units of experienced soldiers that got several months worth of training.

 

[The39thStep]

As I've been told, the West understands full well. The Ukrainians just seem to have a rather optimistic notion of what can be done with raw recruits in 5 weeks. Yes, it's more important to teach them not to shoot each other than it is to teach about mine-clearing - which is something left for specialised units anyhow. Raw recruits shouldn't be clearing mines. You're not hearing these complaints out of the elite units of experienced soldiers that got several months worth of training.

As you've been told by who?

 

[gosub]

As I've been told, the West understands full well. The Ukrainians just seem to have a rather optimistic notion of what can be done with raw recruits in 5 weeks. Yes, it's more important to teach them not to shoot each other than it is to teach about mine-clearing - which is something left for specialised units anyhow. Raw recruits shouldn't be clearing mines. You're not hearing these complaints out of the elite units of experienced soldiers that got several months worth of training.

Pah Princess Diana did it and she didnt have much training. Prince Andrew could probably do it no sweat

 

[cupid_stunt]

Interesting look at NATO training from a Ukrainian viewpoint

‘The West doesn’t understand how we are fighting’

Western instructors don’t understand the kind of war or enemy that we’re fighting, say Ukrainian soldiers

www.opendemocracy.net

The whole bloody war is a mess, in view of the time available, I am not surprised Ukrainian troops are only getting limited basic training, but from other reports, they still seem better trained than Russian conscripts, poor fuckers on both sides.

 

[The39thStep]

The whole bloody war is a mess, in view of the time available, I am not surprised Ukrainian troops are only getting limited basic training, but from other reports, they still seem better trained than Russian conscripts, poor fuckers on both sides.

I think the main beef in that article is the one size fits all approach that meets with NATO accreditation . Obviously, Ukraine's need for fresh troops does impose time constraints on what can be delivered however its very useful and valid feedback to providers.

 

[Chz]

As you've been told by who?

Yes, that's him.

 

[LDC]

Interesting look at NATO training from a Ukrainian viewpoint

‘The West doesn’t understand how we are fighting’

Western instructors don’t understand the kind of war or enemy that we’re fighting, say Ukrainian soldiers

www.opendemocracy.net

At the risk of outing myself (again) as a walting armchair general, this episode 'Training the Ukrainians in Urban Warfare' for the UWP podcast has some more information on some of the problems faced when training Ukrainians that are also related the the 'west's' way of doing things. (Ended up listening to this podcast after reading the David Kilcullen Out of the Mountains book that's been mentioned on here.

They discuss the dominance of 'special forces' thinking (and ways of equipping individual soldiers) in the NATO training that go with the SF mindset of war being high speed, light and mostly about room clearing etc. and forgetting some of the old lessons that are more relevant to the fighting in Ukraine. Some interesting reasons hinted at for this as well; the imagery and 'cool' factor for example.

Urban Warfare Project Podcast - Modern War Institute

mwi.westpoint.edu

 

[The39thStep]

At the risk of outing myself (again) as a walting armchair general, this episode 'Training the Ukrainians in Urban Warfare' for the UWP podcast has some more information on some of the problems faced when training Ukrainians that are also related the the 'west's' way of doing things. (Ended up listening to this podcast after reading the David Kilcullen Out of the Mountains book that's been mentioned on here.

They discuss the dominance of 'special forces' thinking (and ways of equipping individual soldiers) in the NATO training that go with the SF mindset of war being high speed, light and mostly about room clearing etc. and forgetting some of the old lessons that are more relevant to the fighting in Ukraine. Some interesting reasons hinted at for this as well; the imagery and 'cool' factor for example.

Urban Warfare Project Podcast - Modern War Institute

mwi.westpoint.edu

Ta , useful comments although I do worry at times that you’ll get addicted to Call of Duty before long .

 

[LDC]

Ta , useful comments although I do worry at times that you’ll get addicted to Call of Duty before long .

I blame Action Man and Commando comics myself.

 

[DaveCinzano]

I blame Action Man and Commando comics myself.

Still two new issues (plus a pair of reprints) every fortnight!

Commando: War Comic For Action and Adventure

Commando is Britain's longest serving war comic, publishing stories of action and adventure since 1961. Features classic cover images and book information.

www.commandocomics.com

 

[dilute micro]

I think the main beef in that article is the one size fits all approach that meets with NATO accreditation . Obviously, Ukraine's need for fresh troops does impose time constraints on what can be delivered however its very useful and valid feedback to providers.

Good article. NATO hasn't gone toe to toe against Russia except in theory. I don't think 'nata' has the knowledge base to teach Ukrainians how to clear trenches. It's very much the other way around. This sort of disconnect between what type of training Ukraine needs vs what box is being checked off by politicians is no surprise.

 

[StoneRoad]

Noticed another recent small tweak to the ISW map - showing trench lines at smaller area scales .. eg around Robotyne / Verbove.

The liberated zone to the East of Robotyne has now bumped up against an area with triple trench lines, plus strongpoints.

 

[jeff_leigh]

they still seem better trained than Russian conscripts, poor fuckers on both sides.

Yeah sure, But at least the Ukrainians are getting good quality NATO Weapons and don’t have to make do with Shovels like those Russians

 

[ohmyliver]

Very subtle , prob too subtle for some on here .

yeah he should have turned the reference up to 11, innit.

 

[_Russ_]

I blame Action Man and Commando comics myself.

Have you got to the Sven Hassel stage yet?

 

[The39thStep]

Know your enemy . Step by step tactics for defeating The Red Army according to this article

Ukraine cannot win against Russia now, but victory by 2025 is possible

Allies must ramp up weapons production to give Kyiv the means to overpower Moscow once and for all

www.ft.com

 

[teqniq]

Know your enemy . Step by step tactics for defeating The Red Army according to this article

Ukraine cannot win against Russia now, but victory by 2025 is possible

Allies must ramp up weapons production to give Kyiv the means to overpower Moscow once and for all

www.ft.com

Archived version:

Ukraine cannot win against Russia now, but victory by 2025 is possible

However this may not bode well:

The U.S. and Europe Are Splitting Over Ukraine

 

[Rimbaud]

Archived version:

Ukraine cannot win against Russia now, but victory by 2025 is possible

However this may not bode well:

The U.S. and Europe Are Splitting Over Ukraine

Possible split between US and EU over Ukraine could be interesting.

I don't think it would be in US long term interests though. The Republicans are right that it isn't their fight but not aiding Ukraine will necessitate a more independent and integrated European defense strategy and perhaps hasten the creation of an EU army, which might mean the US loses a lot of their ability to project force.

In worst case scenario, a Trump victory could see US openly allying with Putin and right wing populists throughout Europe like Orban in an effort to break apart and dominate the EU. This would be... very bad.

 

[Pickman's model]

Know your enemy . Step by step tactics for defeating The Red Army according to this article

Ukraine cannot win against Russia now, but victory by 2025 is possible

Allies must ramp up weapons production to give Kyiv the means to overpower Moscow once and for all

www.ft.com

what i wonder is how much kyiv actually wants all its territory back. obviously zelensky's set out his stall, but aside from the amount of rebuilding and demining needed, there'd be a great cost in terms of security as well, given that a lot of people in crimea and the other territory russia's held since 2014 will be invested in that regime and by no means certain to return their allegiance to kyiv. once major operations are concluded doesn't mean peace and harmony, it'd mean the beginning of a second effort to regain what the americans call the human terrain, and i wonder what energy and resources zelensky and his successors would have for a counterinsurgency campaign

 

[Flavour]

In worst case scenario, a Trump victory could see US openly allying with Putin and right wing populists throughout Europe like Orban in an effort to break apart and dominate the EU. This would be... very bad.

I really can't see that happening. Trump isn't going to be President again, for starters.

 

[Rimbaud]

I really can't see that happening. Trump isn't going to be President again, for starters.

I hope you are right...

 

[Fez909]

Know your enemy . Step by step tactics for defeating The Red Army according to this article

Ukraine cannot win against Russia now, but victory by 2025 is possible

Allies must ramp up weapons production to give Kyiv the means to overpower Moscow once and for all

www.ft.com

I'm not sure this is right:

Progress is about eight miles with another 55 miles to go (through three lines of defences) before reaching the sea. The aim is to cut the land bridge to Crimea. To the north and south of Bakhmut, advances amount to about five miles with 10 miles to the Russian main defensive line and 60 miles to the border.

Ukraine doesn't need to reach the sea. They just need to get close enough to the main supply lines - which are not right on the coast. Some info in this article:

Why Ukraine could be just 15km from forcing Putin to make an impossible choice

Progress in Ukraine's counteroffensive has been slower than expected, but its forces are building momentum in the country's south, and could be just 15 kilometres away from a major prize.

www.abc.net.au

Also, the Ukranians keep getting longer and longer range weapons - both Western donated and home-made.

 

[LDC]

I'm not sure this is right:

Ukraine doesn't need to reach the sea. They just need to get close enough to the main supply lines - which are not right on the coast. Some info in this article:

Why Ukraine could be just 15km from forcing Putin to make an impossible choice

Progress in Ukraine's counteroffensive has been slower than expected, but its forces are building momentum in the country's south, and could be just 15 kilometres away from a major prize.

www.abc.net.au

Also, the Ukranians keep getting longer and longer range weapons - both Western donated and home-made.

I can't see the Russian state tolerating the loss of Crimea. And that goes double for Putin, if that goes I would think that's the end of him as well. So what will happen if it looks like that loss is an increasing possibility? I have no idea, but I don't think it's all going to be plan sailing if Ukraine keeps making gains, especially ones that threaten the Russian control of Crimea.

 

[Pickman's model]

I really can't see that happening. Trump isn't going to be President again, for starters.

this may come back to haunt you: and of course the rest of us. i wish i could share your optimism

 

[DownwardDog]

I can't see the Russian state tolerating the loss of Crimea. And that goes double for Putin, if that goes I would think that's the end of him as well. So what will happen if it looks like that loss is an increasing possibility? I have no idea, but I don't think it's all going to be plan sailing if Ukraine keeps making gains, especially ones that threaten the Russian control of Crimea.

Putin will do a total GPW scale mobilisation before he loses Crimea.

In other interesting news, I see Zelensky is meting out exactly the same treatment to his former patron Kolomoisky as Putin did to Khodorkovsky.

 

[dilute micro]

what i wonder is how much kyiv actually wants all its territory back. obviously zelensky's set out his stall, but aside from the amount of rebuilding and demining needed, there'd be a great cost in terms of security as well, given that a lot of people in crimea and the other territory russia's held since 2014 will be invested in that regime and by no means certain to return their allegiance to kyiv. once major operations are concluded doesn't mean peace and harmony, it'd mean the beginning of a second effort to regain what the americans call the human terrain, and i wonder what energy and resources zelensky and his successors would have for a counterinsurgency campaign

As opposed to faking it? The hit on their economy, and Russia's war on their economy, which likely will not stop, have to be convincing.

Russia is destroying Ukraine’s economy, raising costs for U.S. and allies

The economic impacts of Russia–Ukraine War export disruptions of grain commodities

 

[Pickman's model]

As opposed to faking it? The hit on their economy, and Russia's war on their economy, which likely will not stop, have to be convincing.

Russia is destroying Ukraine’s economy, raising costs for U.S. and allies

The economic impacts of Russia–Ukraine War export disruptions of grain commodities

yeh. i expand on the point after the first sentence, which appears to be the only one you read.