dilute micro
esse quam videri
Seem to be putting greater emphasis on things like demining and rebuilding.
Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
Seem to be putting greater emphasis on things like demining and rebuilding.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
yes. well spotted. because unless you're proposing that in the event of a ukraine victory they leave mines all over the place and the ruined cities in rubble there will have to be rebuilding and demining. but you're not addressing the sympathies of the people in the areas under russian administration for the past nine years, who may not transfer their sympathies easily to kyiv should they return to zelensky's control. i don't believe the end of the current phase of the special military operation will necessarily be peace, and a second very different war may need to be fought, one for which the ukrainian army likely has little idea how to prosecute. and it may be more costly in terms of treasure and lives than the prize is worth.
dilute micro
esse quam videri
I'm sure they can manage that and Crimea. I'm also sure Ukraine's economy is a larger concern.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
you think so? you think it'll be a bagatelle for them to reincorporate those portions of ukraine into the national community without the greatest difficulty? i think you're away in cloud cuckoo land if you think that integrating a restive population into a post-war ukraine will be in any way easy, if you think it will be in any way cheap, and if you think that there'll be a load of free weaponry handed out by nato at that stage. given the great difficulties britain has experienced with nationalists and republicans in the six counties over the past fifty plus years - who number rather fewer than the population in the russian controlled areas of ukraine, and with markedly less access to weapons and training - you might want to think about this. i would say think again, but i don't believe you've considered the matter at all.
dilute micro
esse quam videri
Did I say "easy"? No. What I have said is that Kyiv's greater concern will be Ukraine's economy. So too would be their ports and the security of their exports (Crimea). I think Kyiv is serious about wanting all of their territory back. They have reason to be.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
so you don't think that rumblings in the east will have any impact on ukraine's economy? fighting any insurgency isn't like fighting another army, they might easily need 60,000+ troops to successfully run a counter-insurgency campaign in the east. and i know you don't think that'd impact the ukrainian economy - you've made that abundantly clear - but i suggest it might. E2a part of a successful coin operation involves pumping money into resources and services and I don't really get the feeling that zelensky or any successor is going to look too kindly on residents who just got on with their lives in the Russian occupied zone over the past 9 years. So it will quite possibly have a far greater impact on Ukraine than you suggest especially with all those high interest loans to repay
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I'm not convinced that there would be a restive population in Crimea. There wasn't before 2014 and while some local people signed up in Donbas, I doubt it would have had any momentum without the presence of Russian mercenaries and special forces who are now integrated with regular military.
It is very unlikely that there will be civilians taking up rearguard action against the Ukrainian military once regular Russian forces are defeated, the bulk of those who are really pro-Russian would probably have retreated to Russia by that point.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
I admire your optimism. But insurgencies have succeeded conquest in the ukraine on more than one occasion
A380
How do I change this 'custom title' thing then?
Yeah my mum and dad have a piece of green painted crumpled aluminium, allegedly from a US Huey shot down in Vietnam that they won in a YCL raffle. Apparently it was that or a jar of home made jam (My dad swore that last bit is true but I am less than convinced).
dilute micro
esse quam videri
I'm talking about having an economy. You're talking about impacting an economy. I think Kyiv would rather control Crimea and Donbass and deal with population problems than to surrender the territories Russia controls and watch Ukraine's economy spiral downward and Ukraine weakened. They've already taken a -30% gdp hit last year and possibly an additional -5 to -9% this year. Ukraine is being propped up as it is. Russia will opt for crushing Ukraine's economy over the long haul if they can't control Kyiv with tanks.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
In the long run we're all dead -- Keynes.
Of course postwar Ukraine is going to have an economy, and of course the war is going to have a major impact on it for many years to come. It's daft and catastrophe-mongering to suggest - as you do explicitly - that they might not have one. You and zelensky may be all gung ho for the 2014 borders now, but I think it is unrealistic to expect that to happen as so much of the war-waging ability of the country is out of kyiv's hands. You're going to be very disappointed in however this unhappy war ends.
dilute micro
esse quam videri
I don't think it matters to you what Russia does to Ukraine, so long as there in no fighting. How much Ukrainian territory would you say is okay for Russia to take?
And you're the one being daft. You know very well my point about Ukraine's economy. Ukraine will be strangled without their ports. That has begun already.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Tbh it doesn't matter what I think. there's no happy future for Russia or Ukraine, that there'll definitely be a small war after this big one as kyiv's writ won't run throughout the land - and likely moscow will face something similar too, with bandits if nothing more.
Reckon those wagner crims will be on the rampage and maybe more organised. I can't see a future where Russia is entirely driven from the 2014 Ukraine, and kyiv will have to consider the alternative of a treaty or armistice where land is ceded, or a reduction of the weapons bounty: I do think it likely that rising tensions with China will lead America to cease transferring munitions to Ukraine in the quantity so far seen. And for my money this will take place whether Biden or trump or de Santis or even that Indian candidate win. Taiwan trumps Ukraine.
I don't prize no fighting above all else. It's not on the cards, that conflict - Russia/ukraine/Ukraine v insurgents will run and run.
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strung out
💩 🤣 🍆 💦 🧐 👻 🐝 🐈⬛
Chz
Stark Raving Sane
Hope they got out alive. That's meant to be the great advantage of using our stuff.
Edit: Crew survival confirmed. British built still good for something then.
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tim
EXPLODED TIM! (Help me!!!)
Given all those drones unnerving people in Moscow and other parts of Russia far from anywhere under the control of the Ukrainian government, my assumption is that an insurgency has already started on at least one front.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Yossarian
⏭️
17 murdered, 32 injured in attack on market in Ukrainian city - maybe one of the stalls had military significance?
www.reuters.com
Russian attack kills 17 in east Ukraine as Blinken visits Kyiv, officials say
At least 17 people were killed and 32 wounded in a Russian attack on a crowded market in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kostiantynivka on Wednesday as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Kyiv, Ukrainian officials said.
editor
hiraethified
It's just a regular market attacked by a missile sent by war criminals. Fuck Russia.17 murdered, 32 injured in attack on market in Ukrainian city - maybe one of the stalls had military significance?
Russian attack kills 17 in east Ukraine as Blinken visits Kyiv, officials say
At least 17 people were killed and 32 wounded in a Russian attack on a crowded market in the eastern Ukrainian city of Kostiantynivka on Wednesday as U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited Kyiv, Ukrainian officials said.
ska invita
back on the other side
Interesting if true
www.forbes.com
Not only were the outermost Russian minefields deeper, they were denser, too. “Other common adaptations have included the laying of two anti-tank mines together—one atop the other—compensating for reduced density by ensuring that vehicles are immobilized by single mine-strikes, even when vehicles are equipped with dozer blades,” Watling and Reynolds wrote.
But reinforcing the first line of mines came at a cost to the second and third lines that comprise the three layers of the defensive Surovikin Line. “The Russian logistics systems were organized to equip brigades with sufficient mines to comply with doctrinal templates,” the RUSI analysts noted. “The increased depth of the fields means that Russian forces have had insufficient mines to consistently meet this laydown with a density of mines consistent with doctrine.”
All that is to say, the minefields get thinner the farther south you travel from the front line. Ukrainian brigadier general Oleksandr Tarnavskiy told The Guardian Russia devoted 60 percent of its time and resources building the first defensive line and only 20 percent each to the second and third lines. "In my opinion, the Russians believed the Ukrainians would not get through this line of defense.”
To Slow The Ukrainian Counteroffensive, the Russian Army Quadrupled The Size Of Its Minefields
The Russians quadrupled the depth of their defensive minefields, from 120 meters to 500 meters—and also increased the density of mines within the expanded fields.
www.forbes.com
Not only were the outermost Russian minefields deeper, they were denser, too. “Other common adaptations have included the laying of two anti-tank mines together—one atop the other—compensating for reduced density by ensuring that vehicles are immobilized by single mine-strikes, even when vehicles are equipped with dozer blades,” Watling and Reynolds wrote.
But reinforcing the first line of mines came at a cost to the second and third lines that comprise the three layers of the defensive Surovikin Line. “The Russian logistics systems were organized to equip brigades with sufficient mines to comply with doctrinal templates,” the RUSI analysts noted. “The increased depth of the fields means that Russian forces have had insufficient mines to consistently meet this laydown with a density of mines consistent with doctrine.”
All that is to say, the minefields get thinner the farther south you travel from the front line. Ukrainian brigadier general Oleksandr Tarnavskiy told The Guardian Russia devoted 60 percent of its time and resources building the first defensive line and only 20 percent each to the second and third lines. "In my opinion, the Russians believed the Ukrainians would not get through this line of defense.”
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
Spotted these two stories this morning ...
a) new use for old "bendy" buses - I do think that the livery is a bit conspicuous ...
b) somewhat older story ...
a) new use for old "bendy" buses - I do think that the livery is a bit conspicuous ...
Luton Airport shuttle buses join Ukraine war effort
Ukrainian soldiers now use the buses once used by holidaymakers at Luton Airport.
www.bbc.co.uk
b) somewhat older story ...
Field hospital bus presented to Ukraine ambassador
The next challenge will be transporting the bus to Ukraine - more than 2,000 miles away.
www.bbc.co.uk
TopCat
Putin fanboy
That challenger tank that got destroyed. The picture’s surprised me a bit as an ex engineer. I have only seen these tanks from mainly the front and sides, never the rear.
The surprise was the two external fuel tanks fixed to the back. Seemingly looking like double skin fuel barrels welded on. Not apparently protected by armour or anything really.
The surprise was the two external fuel tanks fixed to the back. Seemingly looking like double skin fuel barrels welded on. Not apparently protected by armour or anything really.
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
Don't get in a warrior apc - the unprotected fuel tank is between the "passenger" seats and the crew compartment
[watching the fuel slosh around made a friend feel seasick]
dilute micro
esse quam videri
This video looks to be a legitimate breakdown of the Challenger getting scrapped
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
Interesting thread and it lines up with what we've seen from past oligarchs who've had to escape it been killed, and then been robbed
teqniq
DisMembered
This could possibly be seen as reducing reliance on Musk and Starlink:
abcnews.go.com
threadreaderapp.com
US likely to send long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine for the first time: Officials
The United States is likely to send long-range ATACMS missiles to help Ukraine defend itself, officials tell ABC News.
Thread by @michaeldweiss on Thread Reader App
@michaeldweiss: Assuming ABC News reporting is accurate re ATACMS, a very wise move by the administration. Here’s a short thread as to why: 🧵 It eliminates the last big item on Ukraine’s 16 month-long shopping list...…
threadreaderapp.com
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Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Based on another of those ‘anonymous sources’ in the military, if true then it’s a bit crap to give Putin advance notice via a leak - with other supplies (excluding those requiring training) they usually have them in the country on or around the date of the announcement. If not true then at least it’ll cause a bit of disruption while Russia moves things out of range for nothing.This could possibly be seen as reducing reliance on Musk and Starlink:
US likely to send long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine for the first time: Officials
Thread by @michaeldweiss on Thread Reader App
@michaeldweiss: Assuming ABC News reporting is accurate re ATACMS, a very wise move by the administration. Here’s a short thread as to why: 🧵 It eliminates the last big item on Ukraine’s 16 month-long shopping list...…
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Your abc link 404 for meThis could possibly be seen as reducing reliance on Musk and Starlink:
US likely to send long-range ATACMS missiles to Ukraine for the first time: Officials
Thread by @michaeldweiss on Thread Reader App
@michaeldweiss: Assuming ABC News reporting is accurate re ATACMS, a very wise move by the administration. Here’s a short thread as to why: 🧵 It eliminates the last big item on Ukraine’s 16 month-long shopping list...…
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
ATACMS will make Crimea "untenable" for Russia, ex-U.S. general mixed messages from the wh
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