Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Fez909]

Would a 20 year old woman not be a better choice than a 70 year old man?

Women are needed to produce babies

Russian health minister urges women to have children instead of pursuing careers

Russia’s Health Minister, Mikhail Murashko, has declared that the problem with women in Russia is that they get an education before having children.

www.pravda.com.ua

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

Women are needed to produce babies

Russian health minister urges women to have children instead of pursuing careers

Russia’s Health Minister, Mikhail Murashko, has declared that the problem with women in Russia is that they get an education before having children.

www.pravda.com.ua

For 'babies' read 'cannon fodder'.

 

[StoneRoad]

Women are needed to produce babies

Russian health minister urges women to have children instead of pursuing careers

Russia’s Health Minister, Mikhail Murashko, has declared that the problem with women in Russia is that they get an education before having children.

www.pravda.com.ua

Takes years to produce the replacement cannon fodder adults, so "someone" is planning ahead, having seemingly disposed of a lot of society's misfits already.
/cynic

 

[The39thStep]

Some thoughts on the offensive after a (purported, to keep you all happy) visit to the field.

Thread by @HoansSolo on Thread Reader App

@HoansSolo: New🧵: @konrad_muzyka , @RALee85 , @KofmanMichael,& I spent some time this month visiting the frontlines in Ukraine to gain new insights into the ongoing counteroffensive & the war overall. Here are some ...…

threadreaderapp.com

Short take: Ukraine struggling to make headway for various reasons. There's a lot put into them not using NATO tactics, but Warsaw Pact ones, but I think that's unfair when they have no air power to speak of. Russians are certainly rationing ammo, but manage to have enough to repel most attacks. Morale still high, outside of the recent middle-aged conscripts. Repeats often that more material goods aren't what's going to make the difference, unless it's artillery and I think most of their allies have cleaned the closet of anything they can donate without crippling themselves. It's more manpower and trying to make combined assaults work properly.

I read this yesterday and found it surprisingly balanced.

The NATO v Warsaw tactics debate is more crudely put in this from the NYT in which the question of agency is deconstructed into 'whose agency ?'.

 

[kebabking]

I think there's likely to be a very nuanced answer to this - that the units who have reverted to WP training and doctrine are the units who haven't had the western training and haven't got the western equipment - Ukraine has, in effect, two armies: a westernised manouvereist army, and a legacy WP army. The job of the WP army is to probe/make a hole, and the job of the manouvereist army is to drive through it and make merry hell behind the Russian line.

That it's proving moderately difficult to get two very differently trained and equipped forces to work seemlessly together, or to get units that are still emeshed in non-manouvereist culture to take on a slice of manouvereist doctrine, is not a huge surprise.

The irony of course is that Soviet doctrine was exactly the combination of artillery and manouvere that the Ukrainians are trying to pull off - NATO stole that doctrine because it was excellent, but replaced the Artillery with airpower - it's just the Sovs never got it to work.

 

[Bahnhof Strasse]

See Putin's bravely shat it off going to the BRICS summit in South Africa and will send Lavrov to entertain the crowd with his fantastical tales instead.

 

[Artaxerxes]

I await the firm condemnation of Ukrainian aggression that follows this announcement

 

[Flavour]

Should have thought about that before hitting that bridge then shouldn't they.

 

[Chz]

Prighozin gave his assessment of Bakhmut's battle: 78,000 men, 22,000 dead and 40,000 wounded. The odds of a Wagner soldier leaving Bakhmut in one piece were one in five he said in a post on Telegram.

Of these, 49,000 were prisoners from the camps. By the time of the capture of Bakhmut (May 20), 22,000 fighters were killed, 40,000 were wounded. 25,000 were left alive and well, plus the wounded who were recovering. Of these, up to 10,000 have moved to Belarus. 15,000 have already gone on vacation. It is currently unknown how the 33,000 who went into the army were formed. If all those killed and those who went on vacation signed contracts, then it is possible. There's no arguing about that.

 

[Bingoman]

I await the firm condemnation of Ukrainian aggression that follows this announcement

Isn't that an act of war?

 

[The39thStep]

Prighozin gave his assessment of Bakhmut's battle: 78,000 men, 22,000 dead and 40,000 wounded. The odds of a Wagner soldier leaving Bakhmut in one piece were one in five he said in a post on Telegram.

78k total , 22k dead, 40k wounded and 25k alive and well. Do those figures add up ?

 

[Chz]

78k total , 22k dead, 40k wounded and 25k alive and well. Do those figures add up ?

I'm guessing a 7 and 8 transpose by mistake, because that adds up then.

 

[gosub]

For 'babies' read 'cannon fodder'.

Read demographic collapse

 

[teqniq]

Russia going after the gran port of Odessa again:

 

[Fez909]

Russia going after the gran port of Odessa again:

What's the actual thinking behind this?

It doesn't really affect Ukraine in monetary terms. They're fucked anyway and relying on aid now to survive. So Russia is really targeting the countries who need the grain.

China is the biggest importer of Ukranian corn. Egypt is the biggest importer of wheat. China again for barley. EU countries were high up on Ukraine's export list for some of these products, but due to a backlash by undercut farmers, sales have been banned in Poland, Bulgaria etc

One theory might be that if Russia stops the flow of grain, then the countries affected will exert pressure on Ukraine to negotiate, and/or think twice about providing more support which might prolong the war. But none of the countries in the top exporters list are in a position to do so. I would assume with China being affected the most, they might be more likely to exert influence on Russia to stop what they're doing. USA, the biggest military supporter of Ukraine, will be one of the least affected countries.

So, what's the point?

 

[Artaxerxes]

The cruelty is the point

 

[StoneRoad]

My two penn'orth ...

Putin's still trying to destroy Ukraine by any means available, and food hunger aka starvation in the countries that intended to import those now destroyed grains is collateral damage.

These missiles are not "retaliation" for the Kerch Bridge attack, but part of a pre-existing "plan" as evidenced by them signalling withdrawing from the BSGI in the days beforehand.

Perhaps he intends to sell the grain stolen from Ukraine last year in it's place, if the russians haven't already eaten or consumed it.

If there's anything left of the terminals, maybe Ukraine should ask for more anti-missile defences to install in the area ?

 

[mojo pixy]

Having failed at the quick takeover, Putin's aim may now be just to create an irradiated, sludgy wasteland filled with shrapnel and unexploded devices which can sit between Russia and "Independent Ukraine, you are welcome to it thank you" aka NATO stooge-nation. But I'm only an armchair corporal or something.

 

[Pickman's model]

What's the actual thinking behind this?

It doesn't really affect Ukraine in monetary terms. They're fucked anyway and relying on aid now to survive. So Russia is really targeting the countries who need the grain.

China is the biggest importer of Ukranian corn. Egypt is the biggest importer of wheat. China again for barley. EU countries were high up on Ukraine's export list for some of these products, but due to a backlash by undercut farmers, sales have been banned in Poland, Bulgaria etc

One theory might be that if Russia stops the flow of grain, then the countries affected will exert pressure on Ukraine to negotiate, and/or think twice about providing more support which might prolong the war. But none of the countries in the top exporters list are in a position to do so. I would assume with China being affected the most, they might be more likely to exert influence on Russia to stop what they're doing. USA, the biggest military supporter of Ukraine, will be one of the least affected countries.

So, what's the point?

By the beginning of the year the war had cost Ukrainian agriculture between $4 and $6 bn. This is costing them more. It's increasing the country's reliance on aid. Before the war agricultural exports earned Ukraine $28 bn a year. So this will be hitting Ukraine in a sizeable earner of foreign currency. I don't know whether much if any military cargo arrives in Ukraine via the black sea but it's effectively a way of blockading Ukraine, preventing it earning money it could use to augment the aid you point to to procure weaponry or for other services provided by the kyiv government

 

[Pickman's model]

In addition I suppose that bumping up the grain price allows Russia to charge more for any that they export

 

[Crispy]

If there's anything left of the terminals, maybe Ukraine should ask for more anti-missile defences to install in the area ?

The major damage was caused by ship-to-ship missiles. Much bigger and faster than the cruise missiles and Kinzhals. They fly at Mach 3 just above sea level and lock onto the biggest radar signature in front of them (ie. a ship or a warehouse). Very hard to see coming or shoot down with regular air defense.

 

[existentialist]

Having failed at the quick takeover, Putin's aim may now be just to create an irradiated, sludgy wasteland filled with shrapnel and unexploded devices which can sit between Russia and "Independent Ukraine, you are welcome to it thank you" aka NATO stooge-nation. But I'm only an armchair corporal or something.

It's all about the neckbeards, now.

 

[MickiQ]

Isn't that an act of war?

It would be if they actually carried through on it which I doubt, otherwise it's just more hot air, bluster and hollow threats. Putin is increasingly come across as the drunk stood outside pub barely able to stand shouting "Come on then if you think you're hard enough"
Somehow I can't imagine the Russians would hit a US or a Chinese flagged vessel.
Weapons won't be coming into Ukraine by sailing them all round the Med and the Black Sea to get there. Ukraine shares miles upon miles of border with several NATO members on the opposite side of Ukraine to the bulk of the fighting.

 

[Pickman's model]

It would be if they actually carried through on it which I doubt, otherwise it's just more hot air, bluster and hollow threats. Putin is increasingly come across as the drunk stood outside pub barely able to stand shouting "Come on then if you think you're hard enough"
Somehow I can't imagine the Russians would hit a US or a Chinese flagged vessel.
Weapons won't be coming into Ukraine by sailing them all round the Med and the Black Sea to get there. Ukraine shares miles upon miles of border with several NATO members on the opposite side of Ukraine to the bulk of the fighting.

Do you think it is at all likely that a us-flagged vessel would enter the black sea let alone sail to the Ukrainian coast? Or a Chinese vessel? If there's some substance to your thought bar the obvious and announced thing that weapons in every publicised case reach Ukraine by land I'd be pleased to see it. You don't seem to consider the possibility the ships which would arrive to bear away Ukrainian produce might arrive with things the Ukrainians might have purchased - things that they might not grow or produce themselves. I don't suppose ship owners or operators like to see their vessels sailing empty. This is more in the way of preventing Ukrainian trade via the black sea than stopping them getting weapons

 

[StoneRoad]

As for sailing empty / dead-heading ...
I agree that most owners don't like it, but with many, if not most, purpose-built / substance specific bulk carriers they have little option.
And you have to have a suitable "return" load available.

The days of "tramping" coastal steamers that would "pick up and carry" along their route are but a distant memory in many areas.

{e2a - as per Para Handy and the "Vital Spark" - even in their hey-day the "puffers" could spend time at anchor waiting for return loads}

 

[Pickman's model]

As for sailing empty / dead-heading ...
I agree that most owners don't like it, but with many, if not most, purpose-built / substance specific bulk carriers they have little option.
And you have to have a suitable "return" load available.

The days of "tramping" coastal steamers that would "pick up and carry" along their route are but a distant memory in many areas.

OK,there's two lots of ships that won't be calling at odessa etc, the ones bringing goods the Ukrainians want to buy and the ones taking away goods the Ukrainians want to sell. Putin's dealing the ukrainian economy something of a bloody nose.

 

[spitfire]

Looks like Girkin has been lifted.

I hope he has a very unpleasant time at the hands of his erstwhile comrades.

 

[The39thStep]

Looks like Girkin has been lifted.

I hope he has a very unpleasant time at the hands of his erstwhile comrades.

Apparently part of a clamp down/ disrupter of select ultra nationalists .

 

[teqniq]

One criticism too far perchance?

 

[WhyLikeThis]

Putin’s copying another of Hitler’s tactics. Night of the Long Knives.

Fortnight of the Fuckwits.