Bahnhof Strasse
Met up with Hannah Courtoy a week next Tuesday
Storm Shadows are very expensive and can only take out so much bridge, so probably not worth it, especially as a couple of drones can fuck it up good and proper...
Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
Storm Shadows are very expensive and can only take out so much bridge, so probably not worth it, especially as a couple of drones can fuck it up good and proper...
Dogsauce
I’ve got Skol but I’m not a Scholar
Drones are really easy to intercept, and Russia has a lot of air defence around the bridge. Pretty much fuck all chance they’d get through. Storm shadow is fast and has quite a small radar profile so would have a better chance, but possible they’ve been told not to hit this as a condition of them being supplied with them - it is quite a provocative move and Putin was blabbing on today that they’d better not find western components in the unmanned boats that likely carried out the current attack (or they’ll do what exactly?). I think Ukraine would be better off trying to get one of those tiny explosive drones onto a fuel train and let the burning do the work, but that would mean getting people well behind enemy lines.
keybored
Well done. You remember cat good.
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
or transpennine ?
Bahnhof Strasse
Met up with Hannah Courtoy a week next Tuesday
today's attack was marine drones, aka radio-controlled speed-boats.
Bahnhof Strasse
Met up with Hannah Courtoy a week next Tuesday
And fuck Putin's wibblings, the guy's a grade A bellend.
DaveCinzano
WATCH OUT, GEORGE, HE'S GOT A SCREWDRIVER!
...And there's the chyron
WouldBe
Dislicksick
So Putin's basically saying Russian tech is crap.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Can't get the parts these days : 'Of the 52 components Ukrainians removed from the Iranian Shahed-136 drone, 40 appear to have been manufactured by 13 different American companies, according to the assessment. The remaining 12 components were manufactured by companies in Canada, Switzerland, Japan, Taiwan, and China, according to the assessment.'
Natasha Bertrand, CNN December 21, 2022
Kevbad the Bad
Amiable Bowel Syndrome
And it's only just occurred to him to try and mimic NATO stuff.
Last edited:
Nikkormat
Well-Known Member
New episode of Mark Galeotti's excellent podcast In Moscow's Shadows is on Russian military leadership: 108 - Where have all the generals gone?
Fez909
toilet expert
I'm not sure this is true.
Russia can't build stuff fast enough, or at all, due to sanctions. Ukraine doesn't have to build anything, just convince others to give them stuff - and it's been working.
So the defence doesn't improve, but the attackers get more sophisticated kit every week or so.
And Ukraine is knocking out their guns faster than they're losing their own: Ukraine Is Winning The Artillery War—By Destroying Four Russian Howitzers for Every Howitzer It Loses
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
i don't think you've given this as much thought as you might have done. i said nothing about new russian kit. it would be foolish, given the impact sanctions have had. but it'll take more than flashy new western gear to get the ukrainian forces through the minefields. and it's not a great jump from laying mines to planting artillery shells as ieds along what soldiers call natural lines of drift, in preparation for any ukrainian breakthrough. you don't need top new gear to defeat a western- trained and -supplied army, as several conflicts over the past eighty years have shown, twice in vietnam, in iraq and in afghanistan. the defence might well improve where it matters, on the ground. but i was thinking in terms of barriers and obstacles which would cost the ukrainians dearly to transit. i don't know where you got this notion that the defence can only improve if it gets new weapons. they may do, they might not. it's not to me as important as the simple calculus that every day that passes, nearly two months into the counteroffensive - using the information in your article - the greater part of ukrainian forces assigned a role in this campaign still haven't been deployed. each day takes us closer to weather that will halt the fighting season. each day that passes allows the russians to strengthen their defensive positions. and the ukrainians have a more limited supply of manpower than the russians do.
ska invita
back on the other side
Not got time to listen. What were the answers to the questions posed?
Is there a post-mutiny purge of the military going on?
What can we learn from the apparent dismissal or detention of figures such as Generals Surovikin and Popov?
And what does this mean about the prospects of the war and whether there will be the military coup some seem to be anticipating?
Presumably traitors have been outed and there is no prospect of a military coup as Galeotti said just a couple of weeks ago the Russian central command is "coup proof"
Last edited:
LDC
On est tous des pangolins
ska invita here's a short summary on first listening:
WSJ reports: 13 senior officers detained for investigation, all since released and also 15 senior officers have been fired or suspended.
General Surovikin has been not seen for some time, unsure of the knowledge he had of the mutiny, suggest some serious stuff going on behind the scenes.
Suspension of Popov (seen as a popular and pretty good General) and the other dismissals/investigations do suggest the regime is 'devouring its best and brightest'.
There is some level of dis-satisfaction among the military, but this is not yet at a critical level.
He thinks there's no signs of a military coup due to; no wide political critique of the war among the military, no clear potential leader of one has emerged, much of the military is deployed to or near Ukraine so not that much of the military at home/near Moscow which makes a coup practically harder. He doesn't rule out the military being some part of a civil based political coalition that forces changes in the future though.
His last point was that doesn't impact their ability to fight or lessen their operational effectiveness in the war, as they're basically busy. Mentions this thread on the issues within the Russian military:
WSJ reports: 13 senior officers detained for investigation, all since released and also 15 senior officers have been fired or suspended.
General Surovikin has been not seen for some time, unsure of the knowledge he had of the mutiny, suggest some serious stuff going on behind the scenes.
Suspension of Popov (seen as a popular and pretty good General) and the other dismissals/investigations do suggest the regime is 'devouring its best and brightest'.
There is some level of dis-satisfaction among the military, but this is not yet at a critical level.
He thinks there's no signs of a military coup due to; no wide political critique of the war among the military, no clear potential leader of one has emerged, much of the military is deployed to or near Ukraine so not that much of the military at home/near Moscow which makes a coup practically harder. He doesn't rule out the military being some part of a civil based political coalition that forces changes in the future though.
His last point was that doesn't impact their ability to fight or lessen their operational effectiveness in the war, as they're basically busy. Mentions this thread on the issues within the Russian military:
ska invita
back on the other side
_Russ_
Never not Knowingly Misunderstood
Evidently not
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
The bridge is going to need closing soon for a period of time because the more it gets hit and the more they rush repair it the more likely it is to just fall over.
Needs a very thorough check and repair to prevent issues down the line
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
If I was targeting the Kerch Bridge with missiles, rather than water-borne drones, I would probably go for the towers on the "suspension" bridge sections, A good hit on those could be devastating.
Either that or repeated drone attacks on the piers / approach viaducts ...
Would certainly tie up air defence units ... there's a lot of bridge to protect.
Either that or repeated drone attacks on the piers / approach viaducts ...
Would certainly tie up air defence units ... there's a lot of bridge to protect.
dilute micro
esse quam videri
Repeating what PM said - the Russian military are likely trying to hold out for the wet season which will make advancing more difficult for Ukraine. Russia may have a horrible military but if they can stall a counteroffensive it would do much towards reducing western support.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Everyone knows the Western support isn't indefinite, and what the defence minister said in public has undoubtedly been said by his foreign counterparts in private. Just to say once more that the us pivot to Asia is going to lead to munitions depots being built in their Pacific allies' countries as in the event of war with China the Americans will need stocks of weapons in theatre as American control of the seas is by no means guaranteed. The Chinese do after all have home advantage. And I'd be surprised if the US upped production to supply a war on two fronts
tim
EXPLODED TIM! (Help me!!!)
Both the Russian and Ukrainian regimes will have plenty of partisans 'behind enemy lines'
Flavour
hang the bankers
Reports of a Russian military base on fire in Crimea. Possibily an ammo dump hit by Ukrainian drones.
www.reuters.com
Fire at military base in Crimea forces evacuation of more than 2,000 people
A fire that broke out at the military training grounds in the Kirovske district on the Crimean Peninsula has forced the evacuation of more than 2,000 people and a closure of nearby highway, the Moscow-backed governor of Crimea said on Wednesday.
Fez909
toilet expert
Russia extends eligibility for military call-up by at least five years
Russia's parliament on Tuesday extended the maximum age at which men can be mobilised to serve in the army by at least five years - in the case of the highest-ranking officers, up to the age of 70.
Russia raising the age limit on call ups again suggests they have serious manpower shortages.
a_chap
When the world came apart, where were you?
Russia extends eligibility for military call-up by at least five years
Russia's parliament on Tuesday extended the maximum age at which men can be mobilised to serve in the army by at least five years - in the case of the highest-ranking officers, up to the age of 70.www.reuters.com
Russia raising the age limit on call ups again suggests they have serious manpower shortages.
What have they raised it to now?
From 12 to 14?
keybored
Well done. You remember cat good.
Or pension pot shortages.
Would a 20 year old woman not be a better choice than a 70 year old man?Russia extends eligibility for military call-up by at least five years
Russia's parliament on Tuesday extended the maximum age at which men can be mobilised to serve in the army by at least five years - in the case of the highest-ranking officers, up to the age of 70.
Russia raising the age limit on call ups again suggests they have serious manpower shortages.
Chz
Stark Raving Sane
Some thoughts on the offensive after a (purported, to keep you all happy) visit to the field.
threadreaderapp.com
Short take: Ukraine struggling to make headway for various reasons. There's a lot put into them not using NATO tactics, but Warsaw Pact ones, but I think that's unfair when they have no air power to speak of. Russians are certainly rationing ammo, but manage to have enough to repel most attacks. Morale still high, outside of the recent middle-aged conscripts. Repeats often that more material goods aren't what's going to make the difference, unless it's artillery and I think most of their allies have cleaned the closet of anything they can donate without crippling themselves. It's more manpower and trying to make combined assaults work properly.
Thread by @HoansSolo on Thread Reader App
@HoansSolo: New🧵: @konrad_muzyka , @RALee85 , @KofmanMichael,& I spent some time this month visiting the frontlines in Ukraine to gain new insights into the ongoing counteroffensive & the war overall. Here are some ...…
threadreaderapp.com
Short take: Ukraine struggling to make headway for various reasons. There's a lot put into them not using NATO tactics, but Warsaw Pact ones, but I think that's unfair when they have no air power to speak of. Russians are certainly rationing ammo, but manage to have enough to repel most attacks. Morale still high, outside of the recent middle-aged conscripts. Repeats often that more material goods aren't what's going to make the difference, unless it's artillery and I think most of their allies have cleaned the closet of anything they can donate without crippling themselves. It's more manpower and trying to make combined assaults work properly.
Similar threads
