Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[kebabking]

Prigozhin denying it's a military coup, and is saying it's a move solely against the Russian military leadership. I mean fuck knows.

Every coup in history starts off as railing against the Kings evil councillors....

 

[Rob Ray]

That's been his shtick throughout, blunt and bold but ultimately a loyalist to Putin. Except his patron's now picked the other guy.

 

[Duncan2]

Since when did mercenaries give two fucks about Justice?

 

[ska invita]

You and Galloway on the same page.

how embarrassing. A coincidence! Our motives are of course very different. I'm just asking out of curiosity. 25k are in the Wagner ranks - the big question now is how many Wagner troops are committed to Prigs egodriven manoeuvre. No point speculating at this point, but so far, just going on pictures, it doesn't look like that many people are there on the ground with him. Obviously the more there are the bigger the coming clash.

 

[LDC]

how embarrassing. A coincidence! Our motives are of course very different. I'm just asking out of curiosity. 25k are in the Wagner ranks - the big question now is how many Wagner troops are committed to Prigs egodriven manoeuvre. No point speculating at this point, but so far, just going on pictures, it doesn't look like that many people are there on the ground with him. Obviously the more there are the bigger the coming clash.

Yeah totally, we're all just (foolishly) flailing about for sense and clear logic in this mess.

 

[tommers]

the big question now is how many Wagner troops are committed to Prigs egodriven manoeuvre.

The big question is what the Russian army does. At the moment it seems "not much".

 

[Flavour]

Fuck it let's make outlandish predictions.

Major military conflict in the outskirts of Moscow in the next few days.

 

[cupid_stunt]

The big question is what the Russian army does. At the moment it seems "not much".

Yeah, I post the UK's MoD update on the The 2023 Russian Coup thread, the key bit being -

“Further Wagner units are moving north through Vorenezh Oblast, almost certainly aiming to get to Moscow. With very limited evidence of fighting between Wagner and Russian security forces, some have likely remained passive, acquiescing to Wagner.

“Over the coming hours, the loyalty of Russia’s security forces, and especially the Russian National Guard, will be key to how the crisis plays out. This represents the most significant challenge to the Russian state in recent times.”

 

[kebabking]

Uruguay.

 

[maomao]

Fuck it let's make outlandish predictions.

Major military conflict in the outskirts of Moscow in the next few days.

Conflict goes nuclear on Russian soil.

 

[two sheds]

Can't decide whether it's coming to a Berlin Wall type moment or whether that's ludicrous overthinking You'd hope there's less chance of nuclear weapons being used at least since the opposition is Russian rather than Ukrainian/western.

Eta: unless "tactical" nuclear.

 

[steveo87]

Fuck it let's make outlandish predictions.

Major military conflict in the outskirts of Moscow in the next few days.

Nukes by next weekend.

 

[Magnus McGinty]

Won’t Vlad push the button if the state is threatened? Maybe he’ll wipe Moscow off the map.

 

[mojo pixy]

"Who's paying Prigozhin to do this?"

Makes you think eh, eh, eh, eh (gogogo conspiracy!)

 

[maomao]

Nukes by the weekend.

It is the weekend.

 

[steveo87]

It is the weekend.

Oh...I'll fix it.

 

[The39thStep]

Fuck it let's make outlandish predictions.

Major military conflict in the outskirts of Moscow in the next few days.

Prigozhin assassinated by Wagner

 

[Rimbaud]

The most important question in all this - does this mean the Russian occupation of Ukraine is coming to an end?

Prigozhin basically said all the reasons for the war were lies only a few days ago, and Wagner did the bulk of the fighting. Hard to see how they can continue, morale at the front must be awful.

 

[a_chap]

Waiting for Prigozhin to say it's not a coup, it's a special paramilitary operation

I misread that as "special parliamentary action"

 

[keybored]

How many Wagner troops are in Rostov? The few pics and clips I've seen it certainly doesnt look like anywhere near 25k. My impression (and its only that) is its not very many people at all.

how embarrassing. A coincidence! Our motives are of course very different. I'm just asking out of curiosity. 25k are in the Wagner ranks - the big question now is how many Wagner troops are committed to Prigs egodriven manoeuvre. No point speculating at this point, but so far, just going on pictures, it doesn't look like that many people are there on the ground with him. Obviously the more there are the bigger the coming clash.

Aerial photos are best for getting some scale of large crowds but I'd expect some reluctance to send more helicopters over them. And any use of drones would just cause panic and 25000 foxholes to be dug simultaneously, so you wouldn't see anyone anyway.

 

[Indeliblelink]

There are pics/vids on twitter claimed to be long convoys of Wagner military vehicles. In this one at least it looks like they're mostly vans/troop carriers.

 

[FabricLiveBaby!]

What can be done to stop them marching to Moscow? Aren't the rest of the army kind of busy at the moment?

Seems to me like Putin is fucked.

 

[Magnus McGinty]

What can be done to stop them marching to Moscow? Aren't the rest of the army kind of busy at the moment?

Seems to me like Putin is fucked.

I don’t think his whole army are deployed. There’ll still be troops in barracks afaik.

 

[Rimbaud]

What can be done to stop them marching to Moscow? Aren't the rest of the army kind of busy at the moment?

Seems to me like Putin is fucked.

I bet he reeeally regrets his 3 day war in Ukraine now...

 

[LDC]

I misread that as "special parliamentary action"

It's OK, I read 'patron' in a post earlier this morning as 'Patreon', and was like Prigozhin has a Patreon?

 

[weltweit]

On one of the BBC pages there is a photo of this Russian tank

Anyone know what model it is?

 

[JimW]

Ukrainians said anything yet? Other than ha ha, I mean.

 

[The39thStep]

Every coup in history starts off as railing against the Kings evil councillors....

Portuguese revolution didn't .

 

[Cid]

On one of the BBC pages there is a photo of this Russian tank

Anyone know what model it is?

View attachment 380508

T80 in my expert opinion . Why?

 

[weltweit]

T80 in my expert opinion. Why?

Wondering because I understood the Russians were keeping their latest tank out of the fighting so far, and this one looks modern, possibly that latest model ..