Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Flavour]

BBC in Russian: Wagner have taken control of military installations in Voronezh

 

[Artaxerxes]

Fucking NATO.

 

[tim]

Your hot take is it's the Americans? Brilliant. Maybe have a think about whether loyalty (and people) can be complicated, and it's possible to be loyal as a leader, send your troops to battle to die, and then also feel like they've been betrayed by lack of support. Failing that just bleat on about NATO or something you SWP-like tool. (Sticking you back on ignore.)

I have no idea about what his motivation is except that it is going to be personal gain. From a political perspective, as I said, this brings advantages to various to lots of players at very little cost, not NATO which is much less important than its component pars, which is why I mentioned the USA, China, Britain, or France or any other global power that might see a benefit from a weaker Russia.

You of course seem to have a soft spot for brutal killers with a vision, as was seen in the the UNA bomber thread.

 

[Cid]

How much of his army did Napoleon lose in Russia? more than half? And yet Waterloo.

Not to compare Prigo to Boney. There may be money involved somewhere of course. It's just not a necessary component, nor is it a sufficient one.

 

[gosub]

BBC in Russian: Wagner have taken control of military installations in Voronezh

Special military operation appears to have life if its own

 

[Cid]

I have no idea about what his motivation is except that it is going to be personal gain. From a political perspective, as I said, this brings advantages to various to lots of players at very little cost, not NATO which is much less important than its component pars, which is why I mentioned the USA, China, Britain, or France or any other global power that might see a benefit from a weaker Russia.

You of course seem to have a soft spot for brutal killers with a vision, as was seen in the the UNA bomber thread.

'People do things for personal gain', insight of the morning tim, insight of the morning.

 

[Flavour]

Putin on tv calling this a stab in the back to the nation so we can discard the conspiracy theory that this was all 4d chess now

 

[tommers]

Putin on tv calling this a stab in the back to the nation so we can discard the conspiracy theory that this was all 4d chess now

That's what he wants you to think. So clever.

 

[tim]

'People do things for personal gain', insight of the morning tim, insight of the morning

Obviously, no real insight, just a response to an idiot.

 

[Flavour]

Traffic is gonna be a bloody nightmare on the M4 from Rostov to Moscow today

 

[cupid_stunt]

Traffic is gonna be a bloody nightmare on the M4 from Rostov to Moscow today

Certainly is, it's been closed!

 

[LDC]

Putin on tv calling this a stab in the back to the nation so we can discard the conspiracy theory that this was all 4d chess now

Wild. Putin calling it treason and that the people responsible will be held accountable. Also rumours/reports that some large Russian units have sided wholesale with Wagner/Prigozhin.

I mean ffs, however else it's going I bet he didn't think he'd be making live statement on TV denouncing a military coup and a march on Moscow while still fighting a war in Ukraine all those months ago.

 

[zahir]

Rostov, earlier today.



eta: transcript here

On Saturday morning, a video appeared on Telegram that appears to show “negotiations” between Yevgeny Prigozhin, Deputy Defense Minister Yunus-Bek Yevkurov, and Deputy Chief of Staff Vladimir Alexeyev at the Southern Military District’s headquarters in Rostov-on-Don. The previous evening, Prigozhin accused the Russian Defense Ministry of carrying out a missile attack on a Wagner Group camp and announced his units were setting out on a “march of justice” against Russia’s military leadership. Overnight, Wagner fighters cordoned off multiple military and administrative buildings in Rostov-on-Don. Meduza is publishing a transcript of the conversation between Prigozhin, Yevkurov, and Alexeyev heard in the video.

Hours before this conversation, Lieutenant General Vladimir Alexeyev recorded a video in which he called Prigozhin’s actions a “stab in the president’s back” and a “coup attempt” and called on Wagner fighters to “come to their senses.” General Sergey Surovikin, who served as the top commander of Russia’s forces in Ukraine from October 2022 to January 2023, posted a video with the same message. It’s unclear where Surovikin is now.

Prigozhin: They fired at us, and we shot them down.

Yevkurov: You shot them down?

Prigozhin: Shot them down. The third one already. And we’ll shoot them all down, if you keep sending them. Because you’re hitting innocent civilians. You’re destroying civilians — you just blew up a bus with people, and you have no conscience about it.

Yevkurov: First of all, this is the first I’m hearing about this. And let’s not generalize.

Alexeyev: I came to discuss… [unintelligible]

Prigozhin (to Yevkurov): I’m addressing you formally — why are you addressing me informally again?

Yevkurov: I didn’t address you informally.

Prigozhin: Huh?

Yevkurov: I didn’t call you [the formal “you”] “Ty,” I was just saying: let’s not generalize. If you want to be formal.

Prigozhin: Yes, I’m speaking respectfully to you.

Yevkurov: If you say… [unintelligible] But let’s listen, we still need to think — what should we do? [unintelligible]

Prigozhin: Once again: We came here. We want to get the Chief of the General Staff [Valery Gerasimov] and [Defense Ministry Sergey] Shoigu.

Yevkurov: The Chief of the General Staff isn’t [unintelligible].

Alexeyev: (laughs) Take them!

Prigozhin: We’ll remain here until we have them, we’ll blockade the city of Rostov and go to Moscow.

Yevkurov: Then I ask you to withdraw your guys from here… [unintelligible]

Prigozhin: No. Under no circumstances. The guys are staying here.

Yevkurov: No. Well, you’re coming from the perspective…

Prigozhin: We’re not preventing you from commanding your troops.

Yevkurov: You shouldn’t prevent us, of course, [unintelligible], people are dying out there, just like all the others.

Prigozhin: The reason guys are dying is that you’re throwing them into the meat grinder.

Yevkurov: (distracted by his phone ringing) [unintelligible] this question.

Prigozhin: This question isn’t rhetorical. People are dying because you’re throwing them into the meat grinder. Without ammunition, without any thoughts, without any plans.

Yevkurov: (answering phone) Hello?

Prigozhin: You’re just senile clowns.

[video appears to be skip forward]

Alexeyev: What upsets me most is that they’ll be celebrating in Kyiv for at least three days [unintelligible].

Prigozhin: Where?

Alexeyev: In Kyiv.

Prigozhin: It’s not a big deal. A celebration with champagne in Kyiv [happens] when you abandon Krasnyi Lyman, Izyum, and everything else. That’s when they celebrate for a week in Kyiv. But we don’t retreat. And that’s why we came here, to end the disgrace of the country we live in.

Yevkurov: If we’re talking in that kind of…

Prigozhin: That’s number one.

Yevkurov: You started speaking in that tone.

Prigozhin: Well, of course.

Yevkurov: Then what kind of negotiations can we have?

Alexeyev: You understand that not everybody, not everyone flees…

Prigozhin: Listen. One more time. One more time. If we were talking to you all in a normal tone, we wouldn’t have arrived here in tanks. Do you get it?

Man outside of frame: And we wouldn’t have been met with helicopter fire.

Yevkurov: You believe everything you’re doing right now is right. Is that right?

Prigozhin: Absolutely right. We’re saving Russia.

 

[LDC]

I mean re: nuclear weapons, without too much imagination I think this could easily be considered an existential threat to the Russian State if some people wanted it to be.

 

[two sheds]

Remember Russian Mystic Meg? Seems like he might be right again.

That is incredible - particularly relevant now from around 10:30 onwards: Russian commanders have a choice between moving on Kyiv which is incredibly heavily defended with partisans, ambushes, landmines .... or on Moscow which has none of these things.

 

[maomao]

I mean re: nuclear weapons, without too much imagination I think this could easily be considered an existential threat to the Russian State if some people wanted it to be.

But who does he nuke? Prigozhin in Rostov? I appreciate everything could suddenly spin off in any direction suddenly at any moment but I don't see how Putin uses nukes as a reaction to this. Maybe as a suicide switch.

 

[Cid]

Obviously, no real insight, just a response to an idiot.

I'll ignore the beef with LDC... but whatever advantage it brings to any external power, there has to be some fundamentally sound basis to act on. As I said external influence is neither necessary nor sufficient. May still be there, but it's not going to convince soldiers to invade their own country without some other really good (er... subjectively good I should say) reasons.

 

[LDC]

But who does he nuke? Prigozhin in Rostov? I appreciate everything could suddenly spin off in any direction suddenly at any moment but I don't see how Putin uses nukes as a reaction to this. Maybe as a suicide switch.

Yeah wasn't suggesting it was a clear reaction to one location or enemy, just that as you said I think things can spin in all sorts of wild directions if this continues and Putin and his apparatus feels under immense pressure and threatened.

 

[Cid]

But who does he nuke? Prigozhin in Rostov? I appreciate everything could suddenly spin off in any direction suddenly at any moment but I don't see how Putin uses nukes as a reaction to this. Maybe as a suicide switch.

Blame NATO influence? Or I suppose more likely blame Ukrainian influence as that would be the more limited escalation. But it's a stretch.

Though yeah, what advantage would nuking some random bit of Ukraine bring?

 

[LDC]

There's a voiceover translation of Putin's 5 minute address that's worth a watch. He looks fucking angry if you ask me.

 

[ska invita]

How many Wagner troops are in Rostov? The few pics and clips I've seen it certainly doesnt look like anywhere near 25k. My impression (and its only that) is its not very many people at all.

 

[Cid]

How many Wagner troops are in Rostov? The few pics and clips I've seen it certainly doesnt look like anywhere near 25k. My impression (and its only that) is its not very many people at all.

Enough for them to occupy probably the most important Russian city in this conflict?

 

[maomao]

How many Wagner troops are in Rostov? The few pics and clips I've seen it certainly doesnt look like anywhere near 25k. My impression (and its only that) is its not very many people at all.

They won't all be in the same place.

 

[Cid]

They won't all be in the same place.

Yeah some of them are evidently up Voronezh way.

 

[LDC]

How many Wagner troops are in Rostov? The few pics and clips I've seen it certainly doesnt look like anywhere near 25k. My impression (and its only that) is its not very many people at all.

You and Galloway on the same page.



TBF we don't know, but 25,000 people spread about would be hard to capture in some photos and film. With my armchair private hat on I think it's not the done thing to bunch all your troops together for a photo in a war zone.

 

[maomao]

Yeah some of them are evidently up Voronoezh way.

I mean even in Rostov, they will have to have seized a large number of entry/exit points, command posts etc., they won't march into the centre of town with 25k troops.

 

[tim]

I'll ignore the beef with LDC... but whatever advantage it brings to any external power, there has to be some fundamentally sound basis to act on. As I said external influence is neither necessary nor sufficient. May still be there, but it's not going to convince soldiers to invade their own country without some other really good (er... subjectively good I should say) reasons.

It's a coup, even if troops came in from occupied Ukraine, which in the Russian claim is Russia, and of course those following Prigozhin will see real good both personal and ideological coming from it. Given the turn of events, they might also not see themselves as not having much of a personal future once Prigozhin has gone.

There is a horrible irony in that an attempt to supposedly deNazify Ukraine has led to a coup led by a Nazi in Russia itself.

 

[Rob Ray]

Whatever happens this is a major personal hit to Putin. Everyone knows Prigozhin as specifically being Vlad's man, raised from the ranks, given plum contacts, allowed to say what no-one else could. It's a poor reflection that he's now having to put the guy down.

 

[kebabking]

Wagner's current strength is probably something around 20-25k, but to a large degree it's paper strength doesn't matter, what matters is how many they can put against/around the critical facilities, and equally importantly, how many from the Russian Army/other forces are standing against them.

There's lots of stuff to suggest that the big Russian units in the area simply aren't moving against them.

 

[LDC]

Prigozhin denying it's a military coup, and is saying it's a move solely against the Russian military leadership. I mean fuck knows.