Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Pickman's model]

Not sure how I can find my posts from about 2 (maybe 4) weeks ago but I called it.

Opens up another bottle of claret in my opulant mansion.

I was decried when I said Wagner were loose cannons who will go where the money and ammo is, and that the main chap has ambitions.

And yet most of you went... "you're mental Joe".

Which is fair enough. I say that every day.

They all laughed when you said you'd be a comedian ... they're not laughing now

 

[elbows]

I reckon they would do it, too.

Russia are basically like that psycopath husband/partner that won't allow their woman to leave and then once she does, rather than cut his losses, instead turns the gun on the woman, and his kids, and then suicides himself.

I fully belileve that the world should have shown unity after Russia busted the damn and sent in peacekeeping troops. The fact that no one did anything has just emboldened them.

John Sweeney also reckons they will do it, for the same reason I do.

Both sides have made all sorts of claims about the nuclear plant in the past, including going public with suggestions that provocations and incidents with radioactive implications were imminent.

It didnt happen that time and so our media is slightly more cautious when it comes to how to report on this stuff this time around.

I have a low degree of confidence about what will actually happen. I can only point to the past, and to the fact that accusations from both sides tend to intensify whenever military operations increase in the territory near to the plant. So I assume thats what triggers the propaganda, but this doesnt offer me many clues about what will actually happen. At a minimum I'd say its both sides getting their cover stories in order in the event that military actions in the area end up having consequences for the plant itself.

An example of a recent story which demonstrates what Russias angle is, but then goes on to discuss some of the other stuff:

Russia asks IAEA to ensure Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant security

Russia urged the International Atomic Energy Agency on Friday to ensure Ukraine does not shell the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, saying it was otherwise operating safely.

www.reuters.com

 

[Raheem]

Not sure how I can find my posts from about 2 (maybe 4) weeks ago but I called it.

Opens up another bottle of claret in my opulant mansion.

I was decried when I said Wagner were loose cannons who will go where the money and ammo is, and that the main chap has ambitions.

And yet most of you went... "you're mental Joe".

Which is fair enough. I say that every day.

Is this really going where the money is, though?

 

[ska invita]

Wagner were loose cannons who will go where the money and ammo is,

...which is why I cant imagine many of them following Prigozhin to the bin

 

[Artaxerxes]

There's going to be so many awful films out of this.

And at least two Andy McNabb books

 

[ska invita]

Both sides have made all sorts of claims about the nuclear plant in the past, including going public with suggestions that provocations and incidents with radioactive implications were imminent.

It didnt happen that time and so our media is slightly more cautious when it comes to how to report on this stuff this time around.

I have a low degree of confidence about what will actually happen. I can only point to the past, and to the fact that accusations from both sides tend to intensify whenever military operations increase in the territory near to the plant. So I assume thats what triggers the propaganda, but this doesnt offer me many clues about what will actually happen. At a minimum I'd say its both sides getting their cover stories in order in the event that military actions in the area end up having consequences for the plant itself.

An example of a recent story which demonstrates what Russias angle is, but then goes on to discuss some of the other stuff:

Russia asks IAEA to ensure Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant security

Russia urged the International Atomic Energy Agency on Friday to ensure Ukraine does not shell the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant, saying it was otherwise operating safely.

www.reuters.com

the Zelensky quote suggests evidence they are "considering" it... i imagine in a war every side "considers" every eventuality, down to how nuclear war will pan out - thats what military planners and war gamers do right?

 

[two sheds]

Perhaps they're trying to lull the Ukrainians into a false sense of security so they'll overextend themselves by .... errrrrm ... waiting to see what happens

 

[not-bono-ever]

this is a bit saucy if true innit. Do the military now have th excuse they need to annex Wagner ?

 

[elbows]

the Zelensky quote suggests evidence they are "considering" it... i imagine in a war every side "considers" every eventuality, down to how nuclear war will pan out - thats what military planners and war gamers do right?

In that sense its not as strong as claims Ukraine has made in the past, which often emphasise an immediate risk.

For example there was this claim just under a month ago:

Ukraine says Russia plans to simulate accident at nuclear plant

Ukraine's defence ministry on Friday said Russia was planning to simulate a major accident at a nuclear power station controlled by pro-Moscow forces to try to thwart a long-planned Ukrainian counteroffensive to retake territory occupied by Russia.

www.reuters.com

I found that when trying to find some of the 2022 bullshit I was looking for, which I havent found yet.

Sometimes Ukraine links these sorts of claims to fresh appeals of one sort or another to other countries.

Russias version tends to involve the threat of Ukraine shelling the plant, although they have also at various times claimed that Ukraine was planning false flag dirty bomb etc attacks.

 

[jeff_leigh]

With the Russian Army it's at least as likely that they blatted the wrong camp by mistake, they don't inspire confidence at the best of times. If they're fighting amongst themselves now all to the good.
The Ukrainians are probably feeling a bit like the 2 Roman soldiers in Life of Brian stood to one side watching bemused as the Peoples Front of Judea and the Judean Peoples Front slug it out.

Can you provide me with any links of reports of the Russians fighting amongst themselves ?

 

[kebabking]

In short, the official NATO assessment of this is: fuck alone knows.



The next take is interesting - John kind of knows this bloke, John was previously the Defence Attache in Moscow (half defence diplomacy, half spook), and the Kremlin did not like him one little bit. Smart as a box of carrots, very switched on.

 

[elbows]

I know the Wagner stuff is more interesting and a developing situation right now, but just to try to finish off what I was saying about the nuclear shit:

Here is an example from August 2022 of the bullshit that was flying from both sides. Some of this stuff is why IAEA visited the site, to remove some bogus claims from the information picture.

Ukraine claims Russia is preparing to stage 'provocation' at Europe's biggest nuclear power plant

The head of Russia's chemical and biological defence forces has suggested any accident would mean radioactive material reaching Germany, Slovakia and Poland.

news.sky.com

There were other claims around that time in 2022 too that I've failed to find so I will drop the subject for now. But it involved Ukraine claiming Russia were going to do something within a matter of days, so that particular propaganda had a short shelf life.

 

[Flavour]

Smells fishy as fuck all this. My money is on Putin using Wagner to purge Shoigiu and the Defencr Ministry.

 

[kebabking]

Live pictures from Kyiv...

 

[keybored]

In short, the official NATO assessment of this is: fuck alone knows.



The next take is interesting - John kind of knows this bloke, John was previously the Defence Attache in Moscow (half defence diplomacy, half spook), and the Kremlin did not like him one little bit. Smart as a box of carrots, very switched on.

A general carrying his rifle?

 

[brogdale]

Twitter reports of Internet (Google) restricted in Russia and troops on the streets. Hmm

 

[Flavour]

The BBC news in Russian telegram channel has videos of military vehicles in the streets of Moscow.

 

[Artaxerxes]

A general carrying his rifle?

Russian generals look like they are cast members in a cheap Stargate rip off on late night channel 5.


Something about the uniforms don't quite look right

 

[brogdale]

Mark Urban on Newsnight was getting in quite a froth. About TV stations in Russia being hacked, again, and broadcasting Prigozhin’s video address.

 

[keybored]

The BBC news in Russian telegram channel has videos of military vehicles in the streets of Moscow.

 

[Ming]

In short, the official NATO assessment of this is: fuck alone knows.



The next take is interesting - John kind of knows this bloke, John was previously the Defence Attache in Moscow (half defence diplomacy, half spook), and the Kremlin did not like him one little bit. Smart as a box of carrots, very switched on.

If you put the playback speed down to 0.25x he sounds REALLY pissed.

 

[not-bono-ever]

random and unlikely I know, but where would Putain fuck off to if things got super bad at home ?

 

[Kevbad the Bad]

random and unlikely I know, but where would Putain fuck off to if things got super bad at home ?

Glastonbury?

 

[Flavour]

random and unlikely I know, but where would Putain fuck off to if things got super bad at home ?

North Korea?

 

[Dogsauce]

In short, the official NATO assessment of this is: fuck alone knows.

Surovikin is one military leader that Prighozin is said to respect, so it’s clear why he’s been wheeled out to make this appeal.

Elsewhere it’s being reported that some RU troops are refusing to leave their barracks to confront Wagner troops. It’s pretty clear that he had some respect amongst Russian troops - not surprising giving Prighozin’s willingness to appear at the front and personally address his soldiers and fight their corner - comes across as more ‘man of the people’ than some other leaders.

 

[Nine Bob Note]

random and unlikely I know, but where would Putain fuck off to if things got super bad at home ?

North Korea, Eritrea, Syria, Iran... maybe Florida? He's certainly left his options open. It's an episode of Escape to the Sun I'd make a point of watching.

 

[Flavour]

whichever way you slice it this is terrible news for Putin really. even if Prigozhin is defeated rather quickly that still amounts to a small civil war within Russia in order to get everyone back on the same page. and the prospect of Prigozhin not being defeated opens up a scary new bonus pack of potential timelines, none of which are fun. Russia still bombing Kiev tonight.

 

[Nylock]

live coverage...It's now made the bbc news website...

 

[bluescreen]

Where is Prigozhin right now - is he with his troops at the front? He's going to be hard to catch if he is.

 

[JimW]

No chance it's some feint to draw the Ukrainian counter-attack in a direction the Russians would prefer?