Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[two sheds]

No chance it's some feint to draw the Ukrainian counter-attack in a direction the Russians would prefer?

Moscow?

 

[JimW]

Moscow?

It's well defended!

 

[Lurdan]

Russia charges Wagner leader with organising an armed uprising - Financial Times (archived)

Translation of Prigozhin audio statement on Telegram

Twitter link

 

[Kaka Tim]

this is utterly batshit . still dont get why he was allowed so much lisence. Is he seriously going to call for troops to join him in a march on moscow? There's no way back for him now is there? Also - an army that is winning - even a hired mercanary one - doesnt mutiny.

 

[two sheds]

He's pulling out of Ukraine?

 

[Nine Bob Note]

Either he's lying and Wagner are about to be destroyed, or he's genuinely invading Russia from the south. Think I might buy a few big bottles of water tmoz I'd get batteries for the radio too, but my dad would prolly burn through them listening to Concrete/Kyle and co banging on about trans teenagers and Megan Markle.

 

[Yossarian]

Waiting for Prigozhin to say it's not a coup, it's a special paramilitary operation

 

[keybored]

No chance it's some feint to draw the Ukrainian counter-attack in a direction the Russians would prefer?

Ah but if you look a few master chess moves ahead of the current day, it becomes clear the whole special operation was a feint. From the start, Putin carried out a meticulous plan to neutralise his worst enemies within the Russian military by running them right into the well-sharpened Ukrainian knives. Now he will use this cruel prolonged separatist civil war of his creation like a furnace to skilfully reforge Russia. It was rotten to the core and Putin is wiping the slate clean. With the signature master strategisms we're so used to from him. I expect him to recapture Moscow and redeclare the Russian Federation any day now, completing the play and keeping his naysayers baffled. As usual, for victory comrades. Glory to Russia. Glory to V.V.Putin.

 

[Fez909]

Remember Russian Mystic Meg? Seems like he might be right again.

 

[Fez909]

Some FlightRadar nerds are saying Lukashenko has left Belarus, and he flew over Russia with his transponder off for some reason

 

[Cid]

Surovikin is one military leader that Prighozin is said to respect, so it’s clear why he’s been wheeled out to make this appeal.

Elsewhere it’s being reported that some RU troops are refusing to leave their barracks to confront Wagner troops. It’s pretty clear that he had some respect amongst Russian troops - not surprising giving Prighozin’s willingness to appear at the front and personally address his soldiers and fight their corner - comes across as more ‘man of the people’ than some other leaders.

Always the colonels. Yes, yes, technically he isn't... But effectively.

 

[MrCurry]

Well I bet they’re not gonna give him his “fucking ammo” now… All quite entertaining to watch from a distance though.

I wonder if the beeb can mobilise Kate Humble and Chris Packham for a nightly Coupwatch programme?

 

[Cid]

On a serious note, what the absolute fuck is going on? They're in Rostov now apparently?

<wait and see I suppose, as is usually the answer>

 

[JimW]

It's all like something out of the classics with the generals marching on Rome.

 

[LDC]

random and unlikely I know, but where would Putain fuck off to if things got super bad at home ?

George Galloway's holiday caravan in Leith?

Anyway, this is fucking hilarious. I mean it might be less hilarious any minute, but I'm enjoying it while it lasts.

There does seem to be increasingly large amount of footage and reports of Wagner troops, including Prigozhin, in Rostov, with some of alleged gunbattles between Wagner and the Russian army. As well as numbers of Russian soldiers and tanks on the move within Russia and on the streets of Moscow and other cities. Bonkers.

Really need Belarus to start a good internal wobble now.

If I was the chief Ukrainian military bod this morning I might well be thinking, "Fuck it, shall we go all in for it somewhere now?"

 

[LDC]

Oh how we laughed...

 

[MrCurry]

How much CIA money would it have taken to persuade Prigozhin to pull a move like this? A shit lot less than another three years of military aid to Ukraine and if it brings about an end to the war it would be money well spent.

 

[LDC]

I think no way is this CIA money to him. If I was a betting man I'd say he's very loyal to his troops, has lost some perspective from being so close to the front but also is in less of a isolated 'yes man' bubble than Putin so can see how badly things are actually going, and is genuinely angry at the state of the war and leadership of it. Beyond that I think it's either what it looks like, or some plan with him and Putin to lay blame and have a purge.

 

[tim]

I think no way is this CIA money to him. If I was a betting man I'd say he's very loyal to his troops, has lost some perspective from being so close to the front but also is in less of a isolated 'yes man' bubble than Putin so can see how badly things are actually going, and is genuinely angry at the state of the war and leadership of it. Beyond that I think it's either what it looks like, or some plan with him and Putin to lay blame and have a purge.

Good job you're not a betting man, them.

Loyalty my arse, these are the "men" he sent off to the meat-grinder. He's a slimy chancer out for his own interests. He'll take money from the Americans, the Chinese or even the British.

 

[Rob Ray]

If it was all about being a chancer he'd not be doing this, for CIA money or otherwise - he's outnumbered 10:1 even assuming he's not inflating his list of loyalists. Plus his top allies have called for calm. Those aren't good odds.

Generally speaking "it's the CIA" is a bit of a silly knee jerk tbh - might as well say it's Putin himself playing the long game, or the Poles, or the Georgians, unless you have some actual evidence.

 

[strung out]

Wagner have shot down three Russian helicopters and have taken over the military HQ in Rostov.

 

[Flavour]

Ukrainian telegram channels seem to be reporting that the Lukashenko family jet did not indeed leave Minsk last night, but not to go to Russia. Claims it landed in Bodrum, turkey

 

[JimW]

Wagner have shot down three Russian helicopters and have taken over the military HQ in Rostov.

Carve out his own fiefdom among the Don Cossacks, unless Stalin sent them somewhere far east.

 

[LDC]

Prigozhin needs to issue a statement offering talks with Zelensky to end the war, that'd be setting a crack addled cat among the stunned pigeons.

 

[LDC]

Good job you're not a betting man, them.

Loyalty my arse, these are the "men" he sent off to the meat-grinder. He's a slimy chancer out for his own interests. He'll take money from the Americans, the Chinese or even the British.

Your hot take is it's the Americans? Brilliant. Maybe have a think about whether loyalty (and people) can be complicated, and it's possible to be loyal as a leader, send your troops to battle to die, and then also feel like they've been betrayed by lack of support. Failing that just bleat on about NATO or something you SWP-like tool. (Sticking you back on ignore.)

 

[cupid_stunt]

Blimey, wasn't expecting to wake up to this news.

I suppose we can live in hope that Russian troops start asking themselves if they want to continue fighting in Ukraine, or follow the Wagner group, on the road home to their families and loved ones.

 

[Cid]

Good job you're not a betting man, them.

Loyalty my arse, these are the "men" he sent off to the meat-grinder. He's a slimy chancer out for his own interests. He'll take money from the Americans, the Chinese or even the British.

Are his troops also taking money then? Is he buying their loyalty to do a bit of rubicon-crossing? If an army is going to rebel, it's going to do so because they have some faith in their direct leader, and zero faith in overall command. Hence all the colonels.

 

[Tanya1982]

 

[maomao]

 

[kebabking]

Live pictures from the int desk at SHAPE.

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