Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
TopCat
Putin fanboy
China to send a delegation to explore peace talks in the hope of bringing the fighting to an end.
First hopeful signs in a long time.
www.theguardian.com
First hopeful signs in a long time.
Xi Jinping to send Chinese peace talks delegation to Ukraine
In phone call with Zelenskiy, Xi appears to pledge China will stay neutral in war, according to Chinese state media
TopCat
Putin fanboy
Nor expect NATO to behave well at all, ever.
Chz
Stark Raving Sane
Any army, anywhere, anywhen. You have to judge them by the efforts to rein them in. Or encourage them, in some cases.
There's something about training to kill people and then going out and killing people that seems to reduce the value of human life.
Yossarian
⏭️
Indiscriminate murder of Ukrainian civilians continues
www.reuters.com
Russia kills at least 12 in biggest Ukraine air strikes for nearly two months
Russia hurled missiles at cities across Ukraine as people slept early on Friday, killing at least 12 people in the first large-scale air strikes in nearly two months.
www.reuters.com
This is just Xi realising he needs to do some damage control in the EU after the Chinese ambassador to France claimed that the sovereignty of post-Soviet countries (including not just Ukraine but the 3 Baltic EU member states) has no legal basis.China to send a delegation to explore peace talks in the hope of bringing the fighting to an end.
First hopeful signs in a long time.
Xi Jinping to send Chinese peace talks delegation to Ukraine
In phone call with Zelenskiy, Xi appears to pledge China will stay neutral in war, according to Chinese state media
Nothing will come of this.
TopCat
Putin fanboy
Do you want something to come of this?
TopCat
Putin fanboy
Can China broker peace in Ukraine? Don't rule it out | Rajan Menon and Daniel R DePetris
Xi Jinping’s courting of both Moscow and Kyiv seems to be making headway, say Rajan Menon and Daniel R DePetris of Defense Priorities
ska invita
back on the other side
hell even at a demo in the UK PRESS doesnt mean much anymore
Police under fire for 'assault' of journalist at Bristol protest
Daily Mirror reporter shares footage that appears to show police pushing him and hitting him with a baton
point already made but doesnt hurt to repeat, fuck all military machines and all who sail them
It would be great if China could persuade Russia to withdraw but that isn't going to happen.
I think there are a number of possible compromises that could be made for peace. China's Peace Plan means Russia keeps all the land it has stolen and Ukraine is forbidden from receiving arms from elsewhere or joining any regional blocs. It is clear this leaves them defenseless in the long run so Ukraine would be suicidal to accept those terms.
Meanwhile Russia is never going to withdraw unless it is militarily defeated. The only reasonable compromise for peace would be for Russia to retain its currently occupied territory and for the remainder of Ukraine to join NATO's security umbrella. But I don't see China considering this.
I'm at work so I will rebuttal this later, but those guys work for a far-right think tank funded by Koch brothers. No wonder they are pro-Putin. Fash.Can China broker peace in Ukraine? Don't rule it out | Rajan Menon and Daniel R DePetris
Xi Jinping’s courting of both Moscow and Kyiv seems to be making headway, say Rajan Menon and Daniel R DePetris of Defense Priorities
Allies of Rand Paul, Koch take aim at hawks
A new think tank will promote a foreign policy that includes a greater reluctance to assert military force.
www.politico.com
TopCat
Putin fanboy
Well most commenters have an axe to grind.I'm at work so I will rebuttal this later, but those guys work for a far-right think tank funded by Koch brothers. No wonder they are pro-Putin. Fash.
Allies of Rand Paul, Koch take aim at hawks
A new think tank will promote a foreign policy that includes a greater reluctance to assert military force.
But most aren't paid propagandists with a very specific agenda to roll back democracy globally. Those guys are.
Rob Ray
Weight is meaningless
We're so far away from having any nailed down data on capabilities and strategies that any take on the counter-offensives would be in the category of wild speculation at this point. Tbh I think the only thing such takes illuminate are the biases of the people offering them. In your case I guess you'd kind of like Ukraine to be incapable because a failed offensive might hasten the signing of a peace treaty, in others folks might be hoping the manpower is there because a big enough win might force significant internal political movement in Russia, eventually leading to same but with Russia's imperial ambitions curbed over the longer-term. Neither would be based in actual knowledge though.
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
If only we could find a board on the internet that dealt in wild speculation
Chz
Stark Raving Sane
I do know an ex-RM who does some contract work for the MoD. He wouldn't make any guesses one way or the other, but did note that the whole chopping off the head at Kyiv fiasco was a very near thing and the Ukrainian army did not cover itself in glory there. He's also very skeptical of the approx. 5 weeks training their new recruits get. What's unknown is the state of the Russian morale - the whole thing will hinge on that rather than the actual theoretical capabilities.
teuchter
je suis teuchter
I'm interested to know what you want to come of this, and why it is you want it.
For example, is it a world where all countries invest much more heavily in their armed defences, so a big increase in military spending everywhere, but all aiming for a kind of mutual deterrent scenario where there's less actual fighting and killing?
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Never answer a question with a question
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
That's exactly what I'd expect you to think. That's what I'm thinking.
A380
How do I change this 'custom title' thing then?
….
ska invita
… point already made but doesnt hurt to repeat, fuck all military machines and all who sail them
[/QUOTE]
I take it you don’t live on an island where half the food and 90% of the energy comes in over or under the sea?
Also, how are you going to secure your revolution from international capital?
ska invita
… point already made but doesnt hurt to repeat, fuck all military machines and all who sail them
[/QUOTE]
I take it you don’t live on an island where half the food and 90% of the energy comes in over or under the sea?
Also, how are you going to secure your revolution from international capital?
Can China broker peace in Ukraine? Don't rule it out | Rajan Menon and Daniel R DePetris
Xi Jinping’s courting of both Moscow and Kyiv seems to be making headway, say Rajan Menon and Daniel R DePetris of Defense Priorities
China has not to my knowledge elaborated further on their rather vague plan so I don't know where they are getting this from. No, it doesn't state explicitly that the current front line will become new borders, but nor does it state anywhere that Russia should withdraw from Ukraine (although it does find space to insist that arms cease being supplied to Ukraine and that Ukraine doesn't join NATO or EU). Given that Russia has already formally annexed these territories, it seems extremely likely that a ceasefire without withdrawal will result in permanent Russian occupation.
And yet, still not a whisper of criticism of Russia for invading Ukraine.
The fact is that China's leaders have an imperial view of geopolitics in which the world is divided into hegemons and their client states. You can see this in their attitude to the South China Sea, their tendency to see US allies as being somehow secretly controlled by the US, and also their diplomat who said that post-Soviet countries have no legal sovereignty. It is also seen in the Peace Plan's condemnation of regional blocs, as such things make smaller countries able to stand up to regional hegemons, and China doesn't want that to happen.
Xi has been forced to do something to look less one sided on Ukraine because his Ambassador to France said the quiet part loud, but the reason he has not spoke to Zelensky until now is actually because of this definition of sovereignty. Ukraine is Russian sphere of influence, so by not talking to Zelensky he is respecting Russia's sovereignty. That's what is meant here by respecting sovereignty.
He would have wasted time in a conversation to try and reduce damage to EU relations that the backlash to Lu Shaye's comments likely made him aware of, or to try and find a way to save face if Ukraine's counter-offensive succeeds. And why wouldn't they have done any of those things mentioned as a public relations gambit? In fact, showy diplomatic gestures that go nowhere is a pretty good way to summarise the last 10 years of Chinese relations with Eastern Europe.
Zelensky does not want to provoke China because he doesn't want them to support Russia more proactively, and also it is still worth trying to pry them away from Russia. That he said positive things about the call (the content of which we know nothing) tells us nothing.
I concede that it is possible that China wants to win brownie points by being seen to negotiate a peace in the event that the Ukrainian counter-offensive pushes Russia out of Ukraine, but the only way that will be of any use is for Ukraine to first defeat Russia militarily.
JimW
支那暗杀团
I don't think they move that fast in matters of this sort and at such a high level, I expect this will have been in the pipeline for a while.
I don't see why it should take a long time, it's just a telephone call and Xi can basically do what he wants.
I think it is likely that Xi has thus far not been wholly aware how China's stance on Ukraine is perceived in Europe, but the summoning of the Chinese ambassadors in Tallinn, Riga, and Vilnius hot off the heels of his meeting with Macron would have been something he took direct interest in and I'm sure that it was brought up in those summoning that China's role as "peacemaker" is not credible when it hasn't even met with Ukraine.
JimW
支那暗杀团
That would require an agility I don't really see. Even with carte blanche I think it all gets a long bureaucratic pondering before any moves are made.
Well, there's no way we'll really know exactly what Xi's leadership dynamic is like.
Reading a bit more about it, it seems the call was planned since March, but after meeting Putin it never materialised. More recently Ursula von der Leyen reported that Xi said he will speak with Zelensky when the time and conditions are right. It could be that the content of the call was planned well ahead but that it was brought forward in response to the fallout from Lu Shaye's comments.
Yossarian
⏭️
Associated Press:
"The strike has achieved its goal. All the designated facilities have been hit,” Lt. Gen. Igor Konashenkov, the Defense Ministry's spokesperson, said. He didn’t mention any specific areas or residential buildings getting hit.
Guardian:
The Russian attack killed Veronika in her bed on Friday morning, but left her childish chalk drawings of a happy family intact on the wall of their home. Portraits of “Mama”, “Nika” (her nickname), her uncles, grandparents and even the family cat “Kuzia” – the names written in by an adult – stretch all along the front of the house. They end only where the plaster was stripped off by an explosion and a fire that took the lives of the three-year-old and her mother, early on Friday morning.
I doubt we'll be getting an explanation from Konashenkov on why Russia had it in for that particular 3-year-old
"The strike has achieved its goal. All the designated facilities have been hit,” Lt. Gen. Igor Konashenkov, the Defense Ministry's spokesperson, said. He didn’t mention any specific areas or residential buildings getting hit.
Guardian:
The Russian attack killed Veronika in her bed on Friday morning, but left her childish chalk drawings of a happy family intact on the wall of their home. Portraits of “Mama”, “Nika” (her nickname), her uncles, grandparents and even the family cat “Kuzia” – the names written in by an adult – stretch all along the front of the house. They end only where the plaster was stripped off by an explosion and a fire that took the lives of the three-year-old and her mother, early on Friday morning.
I doubt we'll be getting an explanation from Konashenkov on why Russia had it in for that particular 3-year-old
ska invita
back on the other side
I take it you don’t live on an island where half the food and 90% of the energy comes in over or under the sea?
Also, how are you going to secure your revolution from international capital?
[/QUOTE]
Sorry no idea what you are asking.
Is the answer you after looking for Supporting Our Native Military Machine? In which case, no.
Artaxerxes
Look out, he's got a gnu!
existentialist
Tired and unemotional
They just can't help themselves. It's like they're compelled to do Evil Villain whenever the opportunity presents itself.
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