Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24

[Indeliblelink]

Do you have a link to the Hersh article? Is it on the thread matey?

I'm sure it's linked in this thread already but here -

How America took out the Nord Stream pipeline | MR Online

The U.S. Navy’s Diving and Salvage Center has been training highly skilled deep-water divers for decades who, once assigned to American military units worldwide, are capable of technical diving to do the good—using C4 explosives to clear harbors and beaches of debris and unexploded ordinance—as...

mronline.org

Not saying I agree with his article just that it seems to have created quite a lot of discussion about the US being behind it.

 

[friedaweed]

I'm sure it's linked in this thread already but here -

How America took out the Nord Stream pipeline | MR Online

The U.S. Navy’s Diving and Salvage Center has been training highly skilled deep-water divers for decades who, once assigned to American military units worldwide, are capable of technical diving to do the good—using C4 explosives to clear harbors and beaches of debris and unexploded ordinance—as...

mronline.org

Not saying I agree with his article just that it seems to have created quite a lot of discussion about the US being behind it.

Thanks for the link, much appreciated. I'm just interested in read Seymore's meanderings.

 

[Pickman's model]

I'm sure it's linked in this thread already but here -

How America took out the Nord Stream pipeline | MR Online

The U.S. Navy’s Diving and Salvage Center has been training highly skilled deep-water divers for decades who, once assigned to American military units worldwide, are capable of technical diving to do the good—using C4 explosives to clear harbors and beaches of debris and unexploded ordinance—as...

mronline.org

Not saying I agree with his article just that it seems to have created quite a lot of discussion about the US being behind it.

Yeh it's been mentioned once or twice on the thread

 

[TopCat]

Not a shock.

 

[Dogsauce]

I'm sure it's linked in this thread already but here -

How America took out the Nord Stream pipeline | MR Online

The U.S. Navy’s Diving and Salvage Center has been training highly skilled deep-water divers for decades who, once assigned to American military units worldwide, are capable of technical diving to do the good—using C4 explosives to clear harbors and beaches of debris and unexploded ordinance—as...

mronline.org

Not saying I agree with his article just that it seems to have created quite a lot of discussion about the US being behind it.

It’s full of ludicrous factual inaccuracies and based on a single unnamed source. My own pet theory is that he’s secretly working for the US gov and produced an account so full of holes that people will discount the US ever having done it, when they might well have done (there is a motive tbh)

The newest report also has quite a few logic gaps, not least that if there was a reasonable suspicion of Ukraine having done it then Russia would have been screaming about it. Plus that small inconvenient fact of several land-based pipelines crossing Ukraine that they’ve not interfered with and would have been a much simpler operation.

 

[kabbes]

Since there are convincing reasons to discount every group as the culprits behind blowing up Nord Stream, my latest theory is that nobody did and it’s actually still fine.

 

[tim]

Since there are convincing reasons to discount every group as the culprits behind blowing up Nord Stream, my latest theory is that nobody did and it’s actually still fine.

We did it! Johnson's finest hour taking on Russian tyranny and the EU

 

[agricola]

It’s full of ludicrous factual inaccuracies and based on a single unnamed source. My own pet theory is that he’s secretly working for the US gov and produced an account so full of holes that people will discount the US ever having done it, when they might well have done (there is a motive tbh)

The newest report also has quite a few logic gaps, not least that if there was a reasonable suspicion of Ukraine having done it then Russia would have been screaming about it. Plus that small inconvenient fact of several land-based pipelines crossing Ukraine that they’ve not interfered with and would have been a much simpler operation.

They get transit fees and gas from them, there is zero incentive to blow them up (indeed their opposition to NS1 and 2 was precisely because they'd no longer get transit fees).

 

[Pickman's model]

It’s full of ludicrous factual inaccuracies and based on a single unnamed source. My own pet theory is that he’s secretly working for the US gov and produced an account so full of holes that people will discount the US ever having done it, when they might well have done (there is a motive tbh)

The newest report also has quite a few logic gaps, not least that if there was a reasonable suspicion of Ukraine having done it then Russia would have been screaming about it. Plus that small inconvenient fact of several land-based pipelines crossing Ukraine that they’ve not interfered with and would have been a much simpler operation.

There's various strands in hersh's account which make his claim about responsibility suggestive but he's hedged them about with so much bollocks when it'd have been easier and better to go

* these florida divers can do the job - means

* biden said he'd shit on nordstream 2, which he vigorously opposes - motive

* nato exercises in baltic provided the opportunity

 

[StoneRoad]

And, apart from that, they've no skin in the game - neither pipeline supplies them directly.
No to mention at least two departments / agencies with a strong record of "black ops" and a known record for interference.

 

[tim]

A video of Prigozhin, the Wagner founder, from his grim windowless bunker, warning about the consequences of not supporting him and his guys: very odd, and not what one would expect from an efficient totalitarian state

 

[Pickman's model]

A video of Prigozhin, the Wagner founder, from his grim windowless bunker, warning about the consequences of not supporting him and his guys: very odd, and not what one would expect from an efficient totalitarian state

There have never been any efficient totalitarian states

 

[teqniq]

This looks maybe a bit pointless:

 

[Yossarian]

This looks maybe a bit pointless:

After the Hague delivers its verdict:

 

[SpookyFrank]

Are the grownups planning on how to stop this? I hope so but imagine maybe not.

There aren't really any grownups any more. Ironically, Gorbachev was one of the last of them. But he allowed himself to be knifed in the back by a buffoon named Yeltsin and now here we are.

 

[Pickman's model]

This looks maybe a bit pointless:

 

[A380]

There aren't really any grownups any more. Ironically, Gorbachev was one of the last of them. But he allowed himself to be knifed in the back by a buffoon named Yeltsin and now here we are.

Were there ever really any grownups anywhere ever?

 

[Dogsauce]

A video of Prigozhin, the Wagner founder, from his grim windowless bunker, warning about the consequences of not supporting him and his guys: very odd, and not what one would expect from an efficient totalitarian state

There’s another video going round of another regular Russian army group complaining that Wagner is getting all the ammo. A nice bit of finger-pointing and bickering amongst cunts can’t do any harm. Hopefully it means nobody has the ammo, although the results on the front would suggest otherwise.

 

[_Russ_]

Well last night's attacks seems to indicate supply of missiles isnt a problem for them right now.
Some analyst (can't remember name, read so much lately) made the point that if this becomes a drawn out lets see who runs out of ammo first type war then Russia will win.
I can see that being true as already there are signs of western aid creaking and with an election looming in the US and republican cunts making noises that they can't afford to carry on support of Ukraine then there isnt any other country with the resources to keep up with Russia in a war of attrition.

What a fucked up world

 

[existentialist]

Well last night's attacks seems to indicate supply of missiles isnt a problem for them right now.

It doesn't really indicate that. Russia has been moving steadily towards much more sparing attacks, carried out more infrequently, which might indicate a shortage of missiles. They will also have a strategic reserve, which they can dip into, but probably won't want to deplete completely. I recall some analyst pointing out that Russia's monthly expenditure of missiles has been for the last couple of months about what their predicted capacity to manufacture them is.

 

[Pickman's model]

It doesn't really indicate that. Russia has been moving steadily towards much more sparing attacks, carried out more infrequently, which might indicate a shortage of missiles. They will also have a strategic reserve, which they can dip into, but probably won't want to deplete completely. I recall some analyst pointing out that Russia's monthly expenditure of missiles has been for the last couple of months about what their predicted capacity to manufacture them is.

You can try to ease his want of knowledge but he is bereft of wit

 

[existentialist]

You can try to ease his want of knowledge but he is bereft of wit

I don't usually bother to try, but seeing such arrant nonsense being spouted sometimes overrules that.

 

[Dystopiary]

Olga Tokariuk on twitter

 

[Chz]

I'm not complaining about it, but I don't understand how a lot of what we see the Russian side doing is... well, dumb.

There's a video the Ukrainians put out today of a tank disabled by drone. The drone comes back 5 or six times before nailing the engine and forcing them to bail. This isn't one of those fancy drones with dozens of miles of range and whatnot, it's a quadcopter dropping an antitank grenade each time. I just think - WTF are these three guys in a tank doing off in the middle of fucking nowhere that they can't do anything about a drone popping back and forth half a dozen times? Like if there were four guys in a foxhole somewhere nearby they could take it down with gunfire easily. And why didn't they maybe move closer to support after the first five times? It's just so stupid, and they were lucky not to pay with their lives for it.

I suppose it's just Exhibit B for how Ukraine can stand up to a force that was expected to wipe them off the map in a week, but I just can't understand how a year later they're still being such idiots.

 

[JimW]

Carnegie Center had a piece about Russia talking a bigger game than they've been delivering: https://carnegieendowment.org/politika/89226

 

[Dogsauce]

They likely can’t take it down with gunfire, as they’re small and often quite high up, the zoom on drone cameras often make them look a lot closer to their target than they actually are. You’d need to be a good sniper to stand a chance. Plus often tank crews are blind to things above, and are usually safer in the tank than out. EW kit can be effective but it’s expensive and not every team can have one.

 

[Chz]

They likely can’t take it down with gunfire, as they’re small and often quite high up, the zoom on drone cameras often make them look a lot closer to their target than they actually are. You’d need to be a good sniper to stand a chance. Plus often tank crews are blind to things above, and are usually safer in the tank than out. EW kit can be effective but it’s expensive and not every team can have one.

This one was about treetop level, so just about reachable if you can get a few people to fire at it (I wouldn't rate your chances with just the one gun). What I didn't get is that they did move around at least and not stay in the one spot, but at no point did they think maybe having cover from other forces would be a plan.
It's this one:

 

[spitfire]

They probably can't hear the drone so as far as they are concerned it could be anything going bang, mortars, grenades outside the window so safer to stay put. Tanks are loud.

Also hunters use shotguns for flying birds as a general rule because it is very, very hard to hit a flying object with a rifle. Like you say maybe 4 or 5 of them firing together may stand a chance but it's not easy. Hence AA guns having such high ROF.

If they had have realised that it was a drone attacking they would have closed the hatch you'd think...which brings us right back to your first point of some very dumb things being done (that we see).

 

[LDC]

There's some anti-drone weaponry that's been developed now to take them down by jamming (I think...) but I'd bet there's fuck all chance of Russia having much of that available, especially to troops on the ground. Some places use shotguns as you said spitfire, and in some places birds of prey are used.

France deploys new force to combat drones – and it has claws

The French army is using birds of prey to take down drones to protect its air bases as well as to secure public airspace in case a drone poses a threat.

www.france24.com

 

[spitfire]

There's some anti-drone weaponry that's been developed now to take them down by jamming (I think...) but I'd bet there's fuck all chance of Russia having much of that available, especially to troops on the ground. Some places use shotguns as you said spitfire, and in some places birds of prey are used.

France deploys new force to combat drones – and it has claws

The French army is using birds of prey to take down drones to protect its air bases as well as to secure public airspace in case a drone poses a threat.

www.france24.com

Yes I've definitely seen some of the RuAF with those weird sci fi anti drone rifle thingies. No idea how widespread or effective they are though.

American anti drone devices aren't very sophisticated yet.