Bingoman
Well-Known Member
the total number of war crimes are stacking up it seems
Ukraine and the Russian invasion, 2022-24
- Thread starter kebabking
- Start date
DownwardDog
Riding a Brompton with a power meter.
Said on BBC last night that Russians were fighting with shovels due to lack of ammo.
We've been told that the Russians are about to run out of ammo/shells/people/money/solyanka about once a month since the SMO started.
emanymton
A cat politely sat on the flaming gardener.
It's because people don't understand what Russia running low an ammo means.
It doesn't mean they ate going to run out, they will never run out, it just means they have to use less then they where a few months ago.
I'm not certain but I would imagine the supply ebbs and flows as new shipments arrive.
It doesn't mean they ate going to run out, they will never run out, it just means they have to use less then they where a few months ago.
I'm not certain but I would imagine the supply ebbs and flows as new shipments arrive.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
It's Schrödingers' ammunition - it's both plentiful and scarce at the same time. If your Artillery Regt can't get hold of shells despite screaming for them, then you're running short, if the Artillery Regt that covers your sector of front goes from firing 1000 shells a day to firing 100, then you're running short.
As we have seen from day one of this disaster, Russian Logistics can be a bit hit and miss, so the idea that all might not be smooth between the production line, the central ammunition dump and the No.4 on a 152mm towed gun in the mud of Ukraine isn't wild fantasy.
We know that they've had to go from a 3 day Blitzkrieg plan where ceremonial uniforms were more important than food, to unending war. We know that - because we've seen the markings - they are having to dredge up older and older stored munitions, many of which haven't been stored well, and therefore don't always work in the way they should.
Force is simply what you can apply when and where you need it - if they can't get it through the guns when and where they need it, then regardless of the size of the bomb dumps between Moscow and the Urals, they have a shortage.
A380
How do I change this 'custom title' thing then?
Looking ahead a bit. I wonder what ‘the West’ and the Chinese are planning to do should the Putin regime start to look a bit wobbly over this? Russia as it is now is a bit of a nightmare for its people and it’s neighbours; but a failed state in the geographic area that is current Russia , or the rump of the tsarist empire/ USSR, with all its historic injustices, religious spats and nuclear weapons would have the potential to make post invasion Iraq look like Switzerland.
Are the grownups planning on how to stop this? I hope so but imagine maybe not.
Are the grownups planning on how to stop this? I hope so but imagine maybe not.
Cid
Proper break this time
Given the recent state of US-China diplomacy I wouldn't be too optimistic.
Rob Ray
Weight is meaningless
I think it's unlikely the current nexus of interests is going to wobble. The war has all been on Putin, so the powers that be have a fallback of using the State's very potent apparatus of repression alongside dumping him should stuff get hairy. He's been good at balancing keeping everyone at each others' throats thus far but that only lasts as long as he's more useful in post than out, really.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
The grown ups are going to scrap China foreign minister warns of potential for conflict with US and hails Russia ties
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
I think 'stop it' is about hope - though there has been, and will continue to be, messaging from Europe that if Russia changes the way it behaves and thinks, then it can be a European country like Estonia or Finland. There's not much hope of that, but its stil a theoretical option.
Most people are betting on Russia being more belligerent and aggressive after this, regardless of how it turns out, but what else happens - Russia as Yugoslavia or Syria with Nukes, or NK style Chinese client state, or states, what happens to/in Belarus - whether that solidifies into Russia or spins off like Ukraine... All tea leaves stuff. All very possible outcomes.
China certainly sees a disintegrated Russia as both an opportunity and a threat. The opportunity is to have a mad dog to use against the west, but mad dogs can turn on their masters. China would quite like to control eastern and northern Russia's natural resources, but it's hugely wary of a state that can only resist China with Nukes.
I'll happily bet on the future being worse than the present...
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
I read the ISW site's daily reports [mostly on this page, but sometimes on their "home" page ] ...
Institute for the Study of War
Also the "livemap" coverage is quite timely with air raid warnings and similar.
Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com
Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including conflicts, human rights issues, protests, terrorism, weapons deployment, health matters, natural disasters, and weather...
liveuamap.com
ska invita
back on the other side
yeah helps to have someone whose job it is to fight illegal wars posting - blood drenched inside info
Monkeygrinder's Organ
Dodgy geezer swilling vapid lager
It would be helpful to have a thread restricted to people who actually know what they're talking about on this subject I think. There might only be one poster on it though.
A380
How do I change this 'custom title' thing then?
Topcat?
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
Several would be more likely - various people have expertise / knowledge but only in certain aspects rather than all of it.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
The past hundred years show us when the russians dump leaders things don't get better
The39thStep
Urban critical thinker
Any merit in applying this criteria across the entire boards?
Rob Ray
Weight is meaningless
DeepStateMAP is quite good as well, despite the name, particularly the system for flicking back and forth between days to gauge movement over time.I read the ISW site's daily reports [mostly on this page, but sometimes on their "home" page ] ...
and their interactive daily map, which gets produced quite late most nights for that past day.Institute for the Study of War
www.understandingwar.org
Also the "livemap" coverage is quite timely with air raid warnings and similar.
Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com
Live Universal Awareness Map Liveuamap is a leading independent global news and information site dedicated to factual reporting of a variety of important topics including conflicts, human rights issues, protests, terrorism, weapons deployment, health matters, natural disasters, and weather...
StoneRoad
heckling from the back!
oh, ISW have what I would describe as a controllable time-lapse version - published monthly. I think February 2023 maybe be available {I haven't checked}.
kebabking
Not a Girly Swot, but I like them....
Yeah, I think China's thinking on this is very nuanced - I think the idea that Ru and Ch are friends or allies is vacuous rubbish: they are partners of convenience, with huge rivalries and hostilities between them. China wants a relatively powerful Russia on a Chinese leash, as a dog to be used and scolded as Chinese interests dictate - it's about having Russia both as a bulwark/tool against the West, but also as a badly behaved dog that makes China look moderate and sensible in comparison, as well as powerful and necessary when China slaps it down on occasion.
I also think China is deeply unhappy with Russia - China wants to change how the apples are stacked, not upend the cart into the ditch - they are deeply concerned about how Russia has managed to unite the west against 'their block', and how Russia has shown itself - in terms of being a Serious Power that the US and Europe need to respect and fear - to be a bag of shit. They've turned Russia Vs NATO into 'half dead rabbit Vs the Death Star, so they've lost a great deal of their usefulness to China, at the same time as being a burden on Chinese diplomacy.
I think China is weighing very carefully it's options - that if it doesn't support Ru with munitions (large scale, and openly) then Ru could properly lose, with all the risks that entails, but if it does support Ru, it would probably face very severe market restrictions with the west, which would do it's economy, and therefore political security, no good whatsoever.
Fine lines to tread....
JimW
支那暗杀团
Yes, they certainly want no part of this war and their empty peace plan was in part to signal that. The propping I envisage is if it really goes tits up for Russia in Ukraine and Putin needs help to ride out the domestic aftermath.
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Good point well made
Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Roll on 2025
editor
hiraethified
Kindly put your opinions on how a board should be run in the feedback forum.
Indeliblelink
\......👁&👁......./
Are people going to believe what US intelligence says about it though, especially after that Hersh article.
www.theguardian.com
Officials believe pro-Ukraine group may have sabotaged Nord Stream – reports
Kremlin dismisses tentative intelligence from European and US agencies as a bid by the perpetrators to divert attention
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Pickman's model
Starry Wisdom
Well that's come out of left field
WhyLikeThis
Something, something, something
friedaweed
Me and me girl named Jane
Are people going to believe what US intelligence says about it though, especially after that Hersh article.
Officials believe pro-Ukraine group may have sabotaged Nord Stream – reports
Kremlin dismisses tentative intelligence from European and US agencies as a bid by the perpetrators to divert attention
Do you have a link to the Hersh article? Is it on the thread matey?
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